Quantitative HBeAg is a strong predictor of HBeAg loss among patients receiving pegylated interferon.

BACKGROUND: HBeAg loss is an important endpoint for antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB), however there are no reliable biomarkers to identify patients who will respond to the addition of pegylated interferon to nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy. AIM: To evaluate the use of serum biomarkers to predict HBeAg loss. METHODS: HBeAg positive CHB participants on NAs who switched-to or added-on 48 weeks pegylated interferon alpha2b (clinicaltrial.gov NCT01928511) were evaluated at week 72 for HBeAg loss. The predictive ability of qHBeAg, qHBsAg, HBV RNA and clinical variables for HBeAg loss were investigated. RESULTS: HBeAg loss occurred in 15/55 (27.3%) participants who completed 48 weeks of pegylated interferon. There was a lower baseline qHBeAg (1.18 IU/mL [2.27] versus 10.04 IU/mL [24.87], P = 0.007) among participants who lost HBeAg. Baseline qHBeAg (OR = 0.15, 95% CI 0.03-0.66, P = 0.01) and detectable HBV DNA at baseline (OR = 25.00, 95% CI 1.67-374.70, P = 0.02) were independent predictors of HBeAg loss. In addition, on-treatment qHBeAg was also a strong predictor of HBeAg loss (OR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.18-0.81, P = 0.012). The models combining detectable baseline HBV DNA with baseline (C-statistic 0.82) and on-treatment (C-statistic 0.83) had good accuracy for predicting HBeAg loss. A rise in qHBeAg ≥ 10 IU/ml was a predictor of flare (ALT ≥ 120 U/ml) on univariable analysis but not after adjustment for treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline and on-treatment qHBeAg is a useful biomarker that can identify participants on NA therapy who may benefit from adding or switching to pegylated interferon.

Comparing serial and current liver stiffness measurements to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The utility of serial liver stiffness measurements (LSM) to predict decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) remains unclear. We aimed to validate whether comparing serial LSM is superior to using the current LSM to predict liver-related events (LRE) in patients with cACLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: In this retrospective analysis of an international registry, patients with cACLD and serial LSM were followed up until index LRE. We compared the performance of both the dynamic LSM changes and the current LSM in predicting LRE using Cox regression analysis, considering time zero of follow-up as the date of latest liver stiffness measurement. In all, 480 patients with cACLD with serial LSM were included from 5 countries. The commonest etiology of cACLD was viral (53%) and MASLD (34%). Over a median follow-up of 68 (IQR: 45 -92) months, 32% experienced a LSM decrease to levels below 10kPa (resolved cACLD) and 5.8% experienced LRE. Resolved cACLD were more likely to be nondiabetic and had better liver function. While a higher value of the current LSM was associated with higher LREs, LSM changes over time (LSM slope) were not associated with LRE. In multivariable Cox regression, neither the prior LSM nor the LSM slope added predictive value to latest liver stiffness measurement. CONCLUSIONS: Once the current LSM is known, previous LSM values do not add to the prediction of LREs in patients with cACLD.

Switching to or Add-on Peginterferon in Patients on Nucleos(t)ide Analogues for Chronic Hepatitis B: The SWAP RCT.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The optimal therapeutic strategy in nucleoside analogue (NA) experienced chronic hepatitis B (CHB) using peginterferon is still unclear; hence we explored a switch to or add-on peginterferon strategy versus continued NA. METHODS: We conducted a randomized controlled trial of CHB patients on NA >12 months with HBV DNA(-) randomized to switch or add-on peginterferon-alpha2b (1.5 µg/kg/weekly) for 48 weeks versus continuing NA (controls) (allocation 2:2:1; Clinicaltrial.gov: NCT01928511) in tertiary Singapore hospitals. The primary composite endpoint at week 72 was hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) loss or quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg) >1 log IU/mL reduction, and secondary endpoints were HBsAg loss, HBsAg seroconversion, qHBsAg <200 IU/mL, qHBsAg <100 IU/mL, HBV DNA(-), viral relapse, and safety. Analysis was by intention-to-treat (ITT). RESULTS: A total of 253 patients (controls 51, switch 103, add-on 99) were randomized. The primary ITT endpoint was achieved in 3.9% of controls, 33.3% of switch, and 26.7% of add-on (P < .0001, switch/add-on versus controls). HBsAg loss occurred in 0% of controls, 7.8% of switch, and 10.1% of add-on (ITT, P < .001, switch/add-on versus controls). HBeAg(+) patients on peginterferon had higher HBeAg loss than controls but poor HBsAg responses, whereas HBeAg(-) patients on peginterferon achieved better HBsAg responses than controls. Reduction in qHBsAg in HBeAg(+) was 0.14 log IU/mL versus 0.51 log IU/mL in HBeAg(-) (P < .0001) in peginterferon-treated patients. Clinical relapse was higher in switch (13.6% overall, 27% in HBeAg(+)) versus 1% add-on and 0% controls. Adverse events were typically interferon-related symptoms, with one death (myocardial infarction unrelated to therapy). CONCLUSIONS: ITT analysis showed that either peginterferon strategies were superior to NA for the primary endpoint and HBsAg loss, but add-on peginterferon is preferred to switch due to improved safety and similar efficacy. ClincialTrials.gov number: NCT01928511.

Immunoglobulin G in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis predicts clinical outcome: A prospective multi-centre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Autoimmune markers including plasma cells (PC), anti-smooth-muscle antibody (ASMA), anti-nuclear antibody (ANA), and raised immunoglobulin G (IgG) are commonly observed in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), however their clinical significance is unknown. AIM: To determine if autoimmune markers in NASH patients are independently associated with poorer clinical outcomes. METHODS: Consecutive patients with biopsy proven NASH from Christchurch Hospital, New Zealand and Singapore General Hospital (SGH) were included between 2005 to 2016 in a prospective multi-centre cohort study. Patients with other causes of chronic liver disease were excluded. IgG > 14 g/L or globulin fraction > 50%, ANA ≥ 1:40, SMA ≥ 1:40 were considered positive. Multivariate analysis was performed to assess which markers were independently associated with mortality and hepatic decompensation. RESULTS: Total 261 patients were included of which 201 were from SGH. The median age was 53 and 51.9% were male. Advanced fibrosis was present in 31.4% at diagnosis. PC, ASMA, ANA and raised IgG were observed in 13.1%, 4.9%, 27.8% and 30.1% of patients respectively. After multivariate analysis, elevated IgG [Hazard Ratio (HR) 6.79, 95%CI: 2.93-17.15] and fibrosis stage (HR 1.37, 95%CI: 1.03-1.87) were found to be independently associated with increased risk of liver decompensation. Age (HR 1.06, 95%CI: 1.02-1.10) and elevated IgG (HR 3.79, 95%CI: 1.90-7.68) were independent factors associated with higher mortality risk. CONCLUSION: Elevated IgG, rather than ANA, ASMA or plasma cells, is independently associated with increased risk of hepatic decompensation and mortality in NASH. It could hence be important for prognostication.

Trends in Incidence of Autoimmune Liver Diseases and Increasing Incidence of Autoimmune Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are autoimmune liver diseases of unknown etiology. We studied trends in incidences of AIH, PBC, and PSC in a population-based prospective study Canterbury, New Zealand. METHODS: We collected data on patients with AIH (n = 99), PBC (n = 26), or PSC (n = 47) from public hospitals and private practices in Canterbury from 2008 through 2016. Diagnoses were made based on international standardized criteria. We calculated incidence rates for the time periods of 2008-2010, 2011-2013, and 2014-2016 and compared them using 2-tailed mid-P exact tests. RESULTS: Overall incidence rates were 1.93 per 100,000 for AIH (95% CI, 1.58-2.34), 0.51 per 100,000 for PBC (95% CI, 0.33-0.73), and 0.92 per 100,000 for PSC (95% CI, 0.68-1.21). The incidence of AIH was significantly higher during the period of 2014-2016 (2.39 per 100,000; 95% CI, 1.76-3.23) than during the period of 2008-2010 (1.37 per 100,000; 95% CI, 0.91- 2.06) (P < .05). Incidences of PBC and PSC did not change significantly. In 2016, prevalence values were 27.4 per 100,000 for AIH (95% CI, 23.58-32.0), 9.33 per 100,000 for PBC (95% CI, 7.13-12.05), and 13.17 per 100,000 for PSC (95% CI, 10.56-16.42). CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based prospective study, we found that the incidence of AIH was significantly higher in the 2014-2016 period than the 2008-2010 period; incidences of PBC and PSC were unchanged over the same period. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for changes in incidence of autoimmune liver diseases.

Comparative biomarkers for HBsAg loss with antiviral therapy shows dominant influence of quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg).

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers such as quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg), quantitative hepatitis B virus (HBV) core-related antigen (qHBcrAg) and HBV RNA may be useful in predicting HBsAg loss in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) undergoing antiviral therapy. AIM(S): Our study evaluated qHBsAg, HBV RNA and qHBcrAg as a posthoc analysis of a randomized clinical trial of peginterferon±NA to determine their utility in predicting HBsAg loss. METHODS: CHB patients who completed therapy with 48weeks peginterferon alpha2b ± nucleoside analogue therapy (clinicaltrial.gov NCT01928511) were evaluated at week 72 for HBsAg loss. The predictive ability of qHBsAg, qHBcrAg, HBV RNA and other variables were investigated by univariate and multivariate logistic models for HBeAg-negative patients by odds ratios, area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR). RESULTS: HBsAg loss occurred in 15/114(13%) HBeAg-negative CHB patients who completed 48 weeks of peginterferon. At baseline, qHBsAg was superior to HBcrAg and HBV RNA with AUC 0.916, 0.649 and 0.542, respectively. Using multivariate analysis, the model comprising treatmentarm, age, gender, baseline qHBsAg, HBcrAg and HBV RNA, weeks 4 & 8 qHBsAg had the highest AUC(0.98), but the univariate model with week 8 qHBsAg <70 IU/mL had AUC 0.96. Hence, the contributions of variables other than qHBsAg were marginal. HBV RNA and qHBcrAg were weak predictors of HBsAg loss. Kinetics of the novel markers showed only qHBsAg had a good relationship with HBsAg loss while HBV RNA had a marginal relationship and HBcrAg did not change at all, and none had a good relationship with viral rebound. CONCLUSIONS: On-treatment biomarker predictors were better than baseline ones, and the best predictor of HBsAg loss at 72 weeks was week 8 qHBsAg <70 IU/mL.

MAP(ASH): A new scoring system for the prediction of intervention and mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Risk stratification for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is recommended. However, scoring system accuracy is suboptimal, and score calculation can be complex. Our aim was to develop a new score, the MAP(ASH) score, with information available in the emergency room and to validate it. METHODS: The score was built from a prospective database of patients with UGIB and validated in an international database of 3012 patients from six hospitals. Outcomes were 30-day mortality, endoscopic intervention, any intervention (red blood transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or death), and rebleeding. Accuracy to predict outcomes was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Five hundred forty-seven patients were included in the development cohort. Impaired mental status, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, pulse > 100, American Society of Anesthesiologists score > 2, systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg, and hemoglobin < 10 g/dL were included in the score. The model had a good predictive accuracy for intervention (AUROC = 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.88) and fair for mortality (AUROC = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.68-0.81). Regarding endoscopic intervention, AUROC was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.66) in the original cohort and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.66-0.71) in the validation cohort, showing a poor performance, similar to other scores. For rebleeding, the MAP(ASH) (AUROC 0.73; 95% CI: 0.69-0.77) was similar to Glasgow Blatchford score (AUROC = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.67-0.76) but superior to AIMS65 (AUROC = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.59-0.68). CONCLUSION: MAP(ASH) is a simple pre-endoscopy risk score to predict intervention after UGIB, with fair discrimination at predicting mortality. Because of its applicability, it could be an option in clinical practice.

The Shock Index is not accurate at predicting outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a major cause of hospital admission worldwide. The recent UK National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) report on severe gastrointestinal bleeding used the Shock Index to assess bleeding severity and found an association between Shock Index and mortality. However, this has never been prospectively validated as a predictor of outcome in UGIB. AIMS: To compare the Shock Index with existing pre-endoscopic UGIB risk scores in predicting outcomes after UGIB METHODS: In an international, prospective study of 3012 consecutive patients with UGIB, we compared the Shock Index with existing scores including the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), admission Rockall score, AIMS65, and the newly described "ABC" score. Pre-determined endpoints were need for major (≥4 units red cells) transfusion, need for endoscopic therapy and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: The Shock Index was inferior to the GBS in predicting need for major transfusion (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.655 vs 0.836, P < 0.001) and need for endotherapy (AUROC 0.606 vs 0.747, P < 0.001). The Shock Index was inferior to all other scores for 30-day mortality: for example, AUROC 0.611 vs 0.863 for ABC score (P < 0.001). Adding the Shock Index to the ABC score did not improve accuracy of the ABC score in predicting mortality (AUROC 0.864 vs 0.863, P = 0.95). CONCLUSION: The Shock Index performed poorly with AUROCs <0.66 and was inferior to existing pre-endoscopy scores at predicting major clinical endpoints after UGIB. We found no clear evidence that the Shock Index is clinically useful at predicting outcomes in UGIB. [Correction added on 20 December 2019, after first online publication: Summary section has been changed for clarification.].

Previous Use of Antithrombotic Agents Reduces Mortality and Length of Hospital Stay in Patients With High-risk Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Anti-thrombotic agents are risk factors for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). However, few studies have evaluated their effects on patient outcomes. We assessed the effects of anti-thrombotic agents on outcomes of patients with high-risk UGIB. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 619 patients with acute UGIB (defined by hematemesis, coffee-ground vomit or melena) who required intervention and underwent endoscopy at 8 centers in North America, Asia, and Europe, from March 2014 through March 2015. We collected data recorded on use of anti-thrombotic agents, clinical features, and laboratory test results to calculate AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, and full Rockall scores. We also collected and analyzed data on co-morbidities, endoscopic findings, blood transfusion, interventional radiology results, surgeries, length of hospital stay, rebleeding, and mortality. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients who required endoscopic therapy, data on use of anti-thrombotic agents was available for 568; 253 of these patients (44%) used anti-thrombotic agents. Compared to patients not taking anti-thrombotic agents, patients treated with anti-thrombotics were older (P < .001), had a higher mean American Society of Anesthesiologists classification score (P < .0001), had a higher mean Rockall score (P < .0001), a higher mean AIMS65 score (P < .0001), and more frequently bled from ulcers (P < .001). There were no differences between groups in sex, systolic blood pressure, level of hemoglobin at hospital admission, frequency of malignancies, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, need for surgery or interventional radiology, number of rebleeding events, or requirement for transfusion. All-cause mortality was lower in patients who took anti-thrombotic drugs (11 deaths, 4%) than in patients who did not (37 deaths, 12%) (P = .002); this was due to lower bleeding-related mortality in patients taking anti-thrombotic drugs (3 deaths, 1%) than in patients who were not (19 deaths, 6%) (P = .003). Patients taking anti-thrombotic drugs had mean hospital stays of 6.9 days (95% CI, 2-23 days) compared to 7.9 days for non-users of anti-thrombotic agents (95% CI, 2-26 days) (P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Despite being older, with higher American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, AIMS65, and Rockall scores, patients who have UGIB that requires endoscopic therapy and take anti-thrombotic drugs have lower mortality due to GI bleeding and shorter hospital stays, with similar rates of rebleeding, surgery, and transfusions, compared with those not taking anti-thrombotic drugs.

Use of over-the-scope-clip (OTSC) improves outcomes of high-risk adverse outcome (HR-AO) non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB).

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Endoscopic treatment of non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) with high-risk adverse outcome (HR-AO) features has a high risk of failure. We studied the safety and efficacy of over-the-scope clips (OTSC) to treat these lesions. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We included patients who were treated using OTSC for NVUGIB from January 2015 to October 2017. We studied rebleeding and mortality rates and used the Rockall data and our institution's prior data for comparison. We used descriptive and chi-square statistics. RESULTS: We studied 18 patients with 19 bleeding lesions: 9 (47 %) duodenal ulcers, 4 (21 %) Dieulafoy's lesion, 3 (16 %) gastric ulcer, and 3 (16 %) bleeding after gastric biopsy, gastric polypectomy and endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration of peri-gastric mass. We applied OTSC as the first-line treatment in 10 (53 %) and as the second-line treatment in 9 (47 %) bleeding lesions. Continued bleeding after OTSC occurred in six patients, but we treated it successfully and achieved complete hemostasis in all patients. We found OTSC use significantly decreased (0 % vs. 53 %, P  < 0.01) and reduced (0 % vs. 24 %, P  = 0.08) the rebleeding rate in our high-risk (RS ≥ 8) and intermediate-risk (RS = 4 - 7) Rockall score patients as compared to the rates reported by the Rockall study, respectively. When compared to our institution's prior study, we found a decrease in the rebleeding rate with OTSC (0 % vs. 21 %, P  = 0.06) in our intermediate-to-high risk Rockall score patients (RS ≥ 4). There was no difference in mortality rates as compared to both control studies. CONCLUSION: Use of OTSC is safe, efficacious and appears superior to standard treatment for HR-AO NVUGIB. OTSC should be considered as first-line treatment for HR-AO bleeding.

Severity and Outcomes of Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding With Bloody Vs. Coffee-Grounds Hematemesis.

OBJECTIVES: Numerous reviews indicate bloody hematemesis signifies more severe bleeding than coffee-grounds hematemesis. We assessed severity and outcomes related to bleeding symptoms in a prospective study. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with hematemesis or melena were categorized as bloody emesis (N=1209), coffee-grounds emesis without bloody emesis (N=701), or melena without hematemesis (N=1069). We assessed bleeding severity (pulse, blood pressure) and predictors of outcome (hemoglobin, risk stratification scores) at presentation, and outcomes of bleeding episodes. The primary outcome was a composite of transfusion, intervention, or mortality. RESULTS: Bloody and coffee-grounds emesis were similar in pulse ≥100 beats/min (35 vs. 37%), systolic blood pressure ≤100 mm Hg (12 vs. 12%), and hemoglobin ≤100 g/l (25 vs. 27%). Risk stratification scores were lower with bloody emesis. The composite end point was 34.7 vs. 38.2% for bloody vs. coffee-grounds emesis; mortality was 6.6 vs. 9.3%. Hemostatic intervention was more common (19.4 vs. 14.4%) with bloody emesis (due to a higher frequency of varices necessitating endoscopic therapy), as was rebleeding (7.8 vs. 4.5%). Outcomes were worse with hematemesis plus melena vs. isolated hematemesis for bloody (composite: 62.4 vs. 25.6%; hemostatic intervention: 36.5 vs. 13.8%) and coffee-grounds emesis (composite: 59.1 vs. 27.1%; hemostatic intervention: 26.4 vs. 8.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Bloody emesis is not associated with more severe bleeding episodes at presentation or higher mortality than coffee-grounds emesis, but is associated with modestly higher rates of hemostatic intervention and rebleeding. Outcomes with hematemesis are worsened with concurrent melena. The presence of bloody emesis plus melena potentially could be considered in decisions regarding timing of endoscopy.

International prospective observational study of upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage: Does weekend admission affect outcome?

INTRODUCTION: Out of hours admissions have higher mortality for many conditions but upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage studies have produced variable outcomes. METHODS: Prospective study of 12 months consecutive admissions of upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage from four international high volume centres. Admission period (weekdays, weeknights or weekends), demographics, haemodynamic parameters, laboratory results, endoscopy findings, further procedures and 30-day mortality were recorded. Five upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage risk scores were calculated. RESULTS: 2118 patients, 60% male, median age 66 years were studied. Compared with patients presenting on weekdays, patients presenting at weekends had no significant differences in comorbidity, pulse, systolic BP, risk scores, frequency of peptic ulcers or varices. Those presenting on weekdays had lower haemoglobin (p = 0.007) and were more likely to have a normal endoscopy (p < 0.01). Time to endoscopy was less for weeknight presentation (p = 0.001). Sixty-seven per cent of those presenting on weekdays, 75% on weeknights and 60% at weekends had endoscopy within 24 h. Transfusion requirements, need for endoscopic therapy or surgery/embolization, rebleeding rates (6.1%) and mortality (7.2%) did not differ with presentation time. CONCLUSION: This multi-centre international study in large centres found no difference in demographics, comorbidity or haemodynamic stability and no increase in mortality for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage out of hours.

Relationship of time to presentation after onset of upper GI bleeding with patient characteristics and outcomes: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We performed a prospective multi-national study of patients presenting to the emergency department with upper GI bleeding (UGIB) and assessed the relationship of time to presentation after onset of UGIB symptoms with patient characteristics and outcomes. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with overt UGIB (red-blood emesis, coffee-ground emesis, and/or melena) from March 2014 to March 2015 at 6 hospitals were included. Multiple predefined patient characteristics and outcomes were collected. Rapid presentation was defined as ≤6 hours. RESULTS: Among 2944 patients, 1068 (36%) presented within 6 hours and 576 (20%) beyond 48 hours. Significant independent factors associated with presentation ≤6 hours versus >6 hours on logistic regression included melena (odds ratio [OR], 0.22; 95% CI, 0.18-0.28), hemoglobin ≤80 g/L (OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.36-0.61), altered mental status (OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.55-2.73), albumin ≤30 g/L (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.14-1.78), and red-blood emesis (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.06-1.59). Patients presenting ≤6 hours versus >6 hours required transfusion less often (286 [27%] vs 791 [42%]; difference, -15%; 95% CI, -19% to -12%) because of a smaller proportion with low hemoglobin levels, but were similar with regard to hemostatic intervention (189 [18%] vs 371 [20%]), 30-day mortality (80 [7%] vs 121 [6%]), and hospital days (5.0 ± 0.2 vs 5.0 ± 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with melena alone delay their presentation to the hospital. A delayed presentation is associated with a decreased hemoglobin level and increases the likelihood of transfusion. Other outcomes are similar with rapid versus delayed presentation. Time to presentation should not be used as an indicator for poor outcome. Patients with delayed presentation should be managed with the same degree of care as those with rapid presentation.

Colorectal cancer screening.

Colorectal cancer, which is the leading cancer in Singapore, can be prevented by increased use of screening and polypectomy. A range of screening strategies such as stool-based tests, flexible sigmoidoscopy, colonoscopy and computed tomography colonography are available, each with different strengths and limitations. Primary care physicians should discuss appropriate screening modalities with their patients, tailored to their individual needs. Physicians, patients and the government should work in partnership to improve uptake of colorectal cancer screening to reduce the morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer.

Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study.

OBJECTIVE:  To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. DESIGN:  International multicentre prospective study. SETTING:  Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania. PARTICIPANTS:  3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:  Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined. RESULTS:  The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay. CONCLUSIONS:  The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.

Managing non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing rapidly with the obesity and diabetes mellitus epidemics. It is rapidly becoming the most common cause of liver disease worldwide. NAFLD can progress to serious complications such as cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. Therefore, it is important to recognise this condition so that early intervention can be implemented. Lifestyle modifications and strict control of metabolic risk factors are the mainstay of treatment. As disease progression is slow in the majority of NAFLD patients, most can be managed well by primary care physicians. NAFLD patients with advanced liver fibrosis should be referred to specialist care for further assessment.

Difference in clinical presentation, immunology profile and treatment response of type 1 autoimmune hepatitis between United Kingdom and Singapore patients.

BACKGROUND: Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is an immune-mediated liver disease of unknown etiology. Increasing incidence of AIH in Asian patients has been reported. However, the phenotypic difference of Asian patients in Europe and Asia has still not been explored. AIM: To evaluate the clinical presentation, biochemical and immunological profiles, treatment response and survival outcome of type 1 AIH from two tertiary liver transplant centres (United Kingdom and Singapore). METHOD: Patients who fulfilled the simplified diagnostic scoring criteria of AIH were included in the study. Patients with overlap syndrome were excluded. RESULTS: Totals of 40 Asian patients and 159 Caucasian patients from the University Hospital of Birmingham National Health Service Foundation Trust, UK, were compared with 57 Asian patients from Singapore General Hospital, Singapore. Asian patients from Singapore present significantly much later (median 55 vs. 32 years, p < 0.001), had higher MELD (p < 0.001) with lower albumin (p < 0.001) and higher bilirubin (p < 0.001) and lower ASMA positivity (p < 0.001) at diagnosis compared to UK Asian. Jaundice at presentation was much higher in Singapore Asian patients compared to UK Asian (53 vs. 30 %) but cirrhosis at diagnosis was more common in UK patients. Associated autoimmune conditions were less commonly seen in Singapore Asians. Comparing between UK cohorts, Asian patients present at younger age and have higher IgG level compared to Caucasian. Overall, 5-year transplant-free survival in all three cohorts was similar (p = 0.846). CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that AIH patients from Singapore present at older age with jaundice and have a low positivity of SMA. Despite these differences, transplant-free survival is similar in the two groups.

Clinical applications, limitations and future role of transient elastography in the management of liver disease.

Transient elastography (TE) is a reliable tool for the non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis in routine clinical practice. TE is currently approved for use in Europe, Asia and the United States. The widespread adoption of this technology is certain to increase the use of TE worldwide. Although TE has been well validated in chronic viral hepatitis, its clinical role in other liver diseases remains less clear. The advent of new treatment for chronic hepatitis C and emerging prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis raises new questions on the role of TE in current clinical practice. This review aims to examine the clinical applications, limitations and future role of TE in current clinical practice in light of the changing epidemiology of liver diseases and new clinical management paradigms. In current clinical practice, TE is the most accurate non-invasive method for diagnosis of liver cirrhosis. TE is useful to rule out fibrosis and cirrhosis but does not have sufficient accuracy to discern between various stages of fibrosis. The clinical role of TE has evolved from cross-sectional point-in-time assessment of fibrosis and cirrhosis to the more relevant role of prediction of vital clinical end-points. This provides clinicians with the ability to modify treatment strategies based on the information provided by TE. TE has evolved over the past decade to become an essential tool to assist the clinician in the management of chronic liver disease.