RESUMEN
The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, now designated Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 2020. We examine epidemiological evidence for this VOC having a transmission advantage from several perspectives. First, whole genome sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing provides an indication of changing prevalence of different genetic variants through time. Phylodynamic modelling additionally indicates that genetic diversity of this lineage has changed in a manner consistent with exponential growth. Second, we find that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Third, we examine growth trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers at local area level across England, and show that the VOC has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if the VOC has a different latent period or generation time. Available SGTF data indicate a shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases. Fourth, we assess the association of VOC frequency with independent estimates of the overall SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number through time. Finally, we fit a semi-mechanistic model directly to local VOC and non-VOC case incidence to estimate the reproduction numbers over time for each. There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage, with the estimated difference in reproduction numbers between VOC and non-VOC ranging between 0.4 and 0.7, and the ratio of reproduction numbers varying between 1.4 and 1.8. We note that these estimates of transmission advantage apply to a period where high levels of social distancing were in place in England; extrapolation to other transmission contexts therefore requires caution.
RESUMEN
COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and was first reported in central China in December 2019. Extensive molecular surveillance in Guangdong, Chinas most populous province, during early 2020 resulted in 1,388 reported RNA positive cases from 1.6 million tests. In order to understand the molecular epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in China we generated 53 genomes from infected individuals in Guangdong using a combination of metagenomic sequencing and tiling amplicon approaches. Combined epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicate multiple independent introductions to Guangdong, although phylogenetic clustering is uncertain due to low virus genetic variation early in the pandemic. Our results illustrate how the timing, size and duration of putative local transmission chains were constrained by national travel restrictions and by the provinces large-scale intensive surveillance and intervention measures. Despite these successes, COVID-19 surveillance in Guangdong is still required as the number of cases imported from other countries is increasing. HighlightsO_LI1.6 million molecular diagnostic tests identified 1,388 SARS-CoV-2 infections in Guangdong Province, China, by 19th March 2020 C_LIO_LIVirus genomes can be recovered using a variety of sequencing approaches from a range of patient samples. C_LIO_LIGenomic analyses reveal multiple virus importations into Guangdong Province, resulting in genetically distinct clusters that require careful interpretation. C_LIO_LILarge-scale epidemiological surveillance and intervention measures were effective in interrupting community transmission in Guangdong C_LI
RESUMEN
Two notable features have been identified in the SARS-CoV-2 genome: (1) the receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2; (2) a unique insertion of twelve nucleotide or four amino acids (PRRA) at the S1 and S2 boundary. For the first feature, the similar RBD identified in SARs-like virus from pangolin suggests the RBD in SARS-CoV-2 may already exist in animal host(s) before it transmitted into human. The left puzzle is the history and function of the insertion at S1/S2 boundary, which is uniquely identified in SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we identified two variants from the first Guangdong SARS-CoV-2 cell strain, with deletion mutations on polybasic cleavage site (PRRAR) and its flank sites. More extensive screening indicates the deletion at the flank sites of PRRAR could be detected in 3 of 68 clinical samples and half of 22 in vitro isolated viral strains. These data indicate (1) the deletion of QTQTN, at the flank of polybasic cleavage site, is likely benefit the SARS-CoV-2 replication or infection in vitro but under strong purification selection in vivo since it is rarely identified in clinical samples; (2) there could be a very efficient mechanism for deleting this region from viral genome as the variants losing 23585-23599 is commonly detected after two rounds of cell passage. The mechanistic explanation for this in vitro adaptation and in vivo purification processes (or reverse) that led to such genomic changes in SARS-CoV-2 requires further work. Nonetheless, this study has provided valuable clues to aid further investigation of spike protein function and virus evolution. The deletion mutation identified in vitro isolation should be also noted for current vaccine development.
