Modelling the monthly abundance of Culicoides biting midges in nine European countries using Random Forests machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges transmit viruses resulting in disease in ruminants and equids such as bluetongue, Schmallenberg disease and African horse sickness. In the past decades, these diseases have led to important economic losses for farmers in Europe. Vector abundance is a key factor in determining the risk of vector-borne disease spread and it is, therefore, important to predict the abundance of Culicoides species involved in the transmission of these pathogens. The objectives of this study were to model and map the monthly abundances of Culicoides in Europe. METHODS: We obtained entomological data from 904 farms in nine European countries (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) from 2007 to 2013. Using environmental and climatic predictors from satellite imagery and the machine learning technique Random Forests, we predicted the monthly average abundance at a 1 km2 resolution. We used independent test sets for validation and to assess model performance. RESULTS: The predictive power of the resulting models varied according to month and the Culicoides species/ensembles predicted. Model performance was lower for winter months. Performance was higher for the Obsoletus ensemble, followed by the Pulicaris ensemble, while the model for Culicoides imicola showed a poor performance. Distribution and abundance patterns corresponded well with the known distributions in Europe. The Random Forests model approach was able to distinguish differences in abundance between countries but was not able to predict vector abundance at individual farm level. CONCLUSIONS: The models and maps presented here represent an initial attempt to capture large scale geographical and temporal variations in Culicoides abundance. The models are a first step towards producing abundance inputs for R0 modelling of Culicoides-borne infections at a continental scale.

Quantifying the potential for bluetongue virus transmission in Danish cattle farms.

We used a mechanistic transmission model to estimate the number of infectious bites (IBs) generated per bluetongue virus (BTV) infected host (cattle) using estimated hourly microclimatic temperatures at 22,004 Danish cattle farms for the period 2000-2016, and Culicoides midge abundance based on 1,453 light-trap collections during 2007-2016. We used a range of published estimates of the duration of the hosts' infectious period and equations for the relationship between temperature and four key transmission parameters: extrinsic incubation period, daily vector survival rate, daily vector biting rate and host-to-vector transmission rate resulting in 147,456 combinations of daily IBs. More than 82% combinations of the parameter values predicted > 1 IBs per host. The mean IBs (10-90th percentiles) for BTV per infectious host were 59 (0-73) during the transmission period. We estimated a maximum of 14,954 IBs per infectious host at some farms, while a best-case scenario suggested transmission was never possible at some farms. The use of different equations for the vector survival rate and host-to-vector transmission rates resulted in large uncertainty in the predictions. If BTV is introduced in Denmark, local transmission is very likely to occur. Vectors infected as late as mid-September (early autumn) can successfully transmit BTV to a new host until mid-November (late autumn).

Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe. METHODS: We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present. RESULTS: The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.

Spatial and temporal variation in the abundance of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in nine European countries.

BACKGROUND: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV), African horse sickness virus and Schmallenberg virus (SBV). Outbreaks of both BTV and SBV have affected large parts of Europe. The spread of these diseases depends largely on vector distribution and abundance. The aim of this analysis was to identify and quantify major spatial patterns and temporal trends in the distribution and seasonal variation of observed Culicoides abundance in nine countries in Europe. METHODS: We gathered existing Culicoides data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. In total, 31,429 Culicoides trap collections were available from 904 ruminant farms across these countries between 2007 and 2013. RESULTS: The Obsoletus ensemble was distributed widely in Europe and accounted for 83% of all 8,842,998 Culicoides specimens in the dataset, with the highest mean monthly abundance recorded in France, Germany and southern Norway. The Pulicaris ensemble accounted for only 12% of the specimens and had a relatively southerly and easterly spatial distribution compared to the Obsoletus ensemble. Culicoides imicola Kieffer was only found in Spain and the southernmost part of France. There was a clear spatial trend in the accumulated annual abundance from southern to northern Europe, with the Obsoletus ensemble steadily increasing from 4000 per year in southern Europe to 500,000 in Scandinavia. The Pulicaris ensemble showed a very different pattern, with an increase in the accumulated annual abundance from 1600 in Spain, peaking at 41,000 in northern Germany and then decreasing again toward northern latitudes. For the two species ensembles and C. imicola, the season began between January and April, with later start dates and increasingly shorter vector seasons at more northerly latitudes. CONCLUSION: We present the first maps of seasonal Culicoides abundance in large parts of Europe covering a gradient from southern Spain to northern Scandinavia. The identified temporal trends and spatial patterns are useful for planning the allocation of resources for international prevention and surveillance programmes in the European Union.

Diet-dependent heat emission reveals costs of post-diapause recovery from different nutritional sources in a carnivorous beetle.

Restoration of fat stores is metabolic first priority for many insects that emerge from hibernation with depleted fat bodies. To some extent, the animals must be flexible and use whatever foods available irrespective of their nutrient composition. Previously, the carabid beetles Anchomenus dorsalis have been found to refill their fat stores to the same extent over 9 days irrespective of the nutrient composition of their food. However, a higher cost of fat deposition when the food was rich in sugar or protein rather than lipid was indicated by higher total energy consumption. Here, we test the hypothesis of increased metabolic costs of building fat stores from sugar- or protein-rich food than from lipid-rich food by microcalorimetry. We measured the heat emitted from beetles that had fed on sugar-, protein-, or lipid-rich food for 0 (common control), 2, 5, or 10 days. As predicted, heat emission was increased in beetles getting sugar- and protein-rich food compared with those getting lipid-rich food. However, we did not confirm the beetles' ability to rebuild fat stores from protein-rich food; instead, they increased in lean mass. Overall, sugar-rich food seems to be optimal for post-winter recovery, because it is better than lipid-rich food that allows concurrent rebuilding of fat stores and lean mass, which may benefit preparation for spring migration and reproduction. We propose that overwintered fruits may be highly preferred post-diapause food for these otherwise mostly carnivorous beetles.

Three new Scandinavian species of Culicoides (Culicoides): Culicoides boyi sp. nov., Culicoides selandicus sp. nov. and Culicoides kalix sp. nov. (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae).

BACKGROUND: In the context of a major monitoring program of Culicoides in Denmark and Sweden due to the appearance of bluetongue disease in 2007-2008, a large number of specimens were collected by light traps and sorted morphologically, with COI barcodes generated for selected specimens. NEW INFORMATION: Three species are described as new to science based on both morphological and molecular data: Culicoides (Culicoides) boyi sp. nov. (Denmark: Jutland), C. (C.) selandicus sp. nov. (Denmark: Zealand) and C. (C.) kalix sp. nov. (Sweden: Norrbotten). All are diagnosed morphologically as well as by molecular barcoding. A key to slide-mounted females of all Scandinavian species of Culicoides (Culicoides) is presented.

Delineation of Culicoides species by morphology and barcode exemplified by three new species of the subgenus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) from Scandinavia.

BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) cause biting nuisance to livestock and humans and are vectors of a range of pathogens of medical and veterinary importance. Despite their economic significance, the delineation and identification of species where only morphology is considered, as well as the evolutionary relationships between species within this genus remains problematic. In recent years molecular barcoding has assisted substantially in the identification of biting midges in the multiple entomological survey projects which were initiated in many European countries following the bluetongue outbreak in 2006-2009. These studies revealed potentially new species and "species-complexes" with large genetic and morphological variability. Here we use molecular barcoding, together with morphological analysis, to study subgenus Culicoides Latreille from Scandinavia with focus on three potentially new species. METHODS: Biting midges were collected at various sites in Denmark and Sweden. Culicoides specimens were described by variation of a fragment of their cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) gene sequence and wing, palp and antennal characters. RESULTS: It is shown that three new species initially separated by DNA barcoding with mitochondrial COI can be distinguished by morphological characters. In this context a key to Scandinavian subgenus Culicoides using wing and maxillary palp characters is presented. The key is including the three new species Culicoides boyi, Culicoides selandicus and Culicoides kalix. CONCLUSION: Three new species of Culicoides biting midges were identified and could be identified by both molecular and morphological differences. Evaluation of differences between and within taxa of biting midges using COI barcode yielded a rough estimate of species delineation; interspecies differences across Culicoides subgenera approaches 20%, whereas intraspecies differences are below 4% and in most cases below 1%.

Identity and diversity of blood meal hosts of biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae: Culicoides Latreille) in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Host preference studies in haematophagous insects e.g. Culicoides biting midges are pivotal to assess transmission routes of vector-borne diseases and critical for the development of veterinary contingency plans to identify which species should be included due to their risk potential. Species of Culicoides have been found in almost all parts of the world and known to live in a variety of habitats. Several parasites and viruses are transmitted by Culicoides biting midges including Bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus. The aim of the present study was to determine the identity and diversity of blood meals taken from vertebrate hosts in wild-caught Culicoides biting midges near livestock farms. METHODS: Biting midges were collected at weekly intervals for 20 weeks from May to October 2009 using light traps at four collection sites on the island Sealand, Denmark. Blood-fed female biting midges were sorted and head and wings were removed for morphological species identification. The thoraxes and abdomens including the blood meals of the individual females were subsequently subjected to DNA isolation. The molecular marker cytochrome oxidase I (COI barcode) was applied to identify the species of the collected biting midges (GenBank accessions JQ683259-JQ683374). The blood meals were first screened with a species-specific cytochrome b primer pair for cow and if negative with a universal cytochrome b primer pair followed by sequencing to identify mammal or avian blood meal hosts. RESULTS: Twenty-four species of biting midges were identified from the four study sites. A total of 111,356 Culicoides biting midges were collected, of which 2,164 were blood-fed. Specimens of twenty species were identified with blood in their abdomens. Blood meal sources were successfully identified by DNA sequencing from 242 (76%) out of 320 Culicoides specimens. Eight species of mammals and seven species of birds were identified as blood meal hosts. The most common host species was the cow, which constituted 77% of the identified blood meals. The second most numerous host species was the common wood pigeon, which constituted 6% of the identified blood meals. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that some Culicoides species are opportunistic and readily feed on a variety of mammals and birds, while others seems to be strictly mammalophilic or ornithophilic. Based on their number, dispersal potential and blood feeding behaviour, we conclude that Culicoides biting midges are potential vectors for many pathogens not yet introduced to Denmark.

Morphological and molecular identification of species of the Obsoletus group (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Scandinavia.

After the introduction of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006, populations of Culicoides have been monitored in many European countries. Large quantities of Culicoides specimens shall be determined to species, and it is thus important to find reliable morphological characters that are visualized in a stereomicroscope. Culicoides obsoletus, Culicoides scoticus, Culicoides chiopterus, and Culicoides dewulfi all belonging to subgenus Avaritia are common in collections in northern Europe. C. obsoletus and C. scoticus often make up more than 50% of the total catch of biting midges. Separation of the females of the four species by morphological characters has frequently been questioned, and in many cases, female specimens are grouped as an entity in veterinary and ecological studies. We show how it is possible using a stereomicroscope to separate the females of the four species by combining the shape of the third segment of the maxillary palp and the number and location of hairs on the first abdominal tergit. Validation of the quick stereomicroscope identification method was achieved by morphometric measurements and a molecular marker. In all cases, both methods verified the quick morphological species identification of the Obsoletus group females. In conclusion, the females of all four species of the Obsoletus group can be separated by a quick morphological method under the stereomicroscope.

Monitoring of biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae: Culicoides Latreille) on farms in Sweden during the emergence of the 2008 epidemic of bluetongue.

In light of the emergence of bluetongue in northern Europe, populations of Culicoides species were monitored in 2007-2008 by means of Onderstepoort blacklight suction traps operating at livestock farms in Sweden. The location of the 22 sampling sites ranged from about latitude 55 degrees N to about 68 degrees N. A total of 61,669 male and female Culicoides were captured, of which, 52,319 were trapped outside the farms and 9,350 in byres or livestock sheds. Thirty-three Culicoides species were recorded, of which, 30 were new to Sweden. The species and their relative abundance and spatial distribution on sites are presented. Two species incriminated as vectors of bluetongue virus, viz. Culicoides obsoletus (about 38%) and Culicoides scoticus (about 36%), were predominant and common in the environment of livestock farms practically all over the Swedish mainland, penetrating far north to at least 65 degrees N. The two species were also recorded from the island of Gotland. Culicoides pulicaris, another potential vector species, accounted for about 9% of all Culicoides captured.