A machine learning approach identifies unresolving secondary pneumonia as a contributor to mortality in patients with severe pneumonia, including COVID-19

BackgroundPatients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia experience longer durations of critical illness yet similar mortality rates compared to patients with severe pneumonia secondary to other etiologies. As secondary bacterial infection is common in SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, we hypothesized that unresolving ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) drives the apparent disconnect between length-of-stay and mortality rate among these patients. MethodsWe analyzed VAP in a prospective single-center observational study of 585 mechanically ventilated patients with suspected pneumonia, including 190 patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. We developed CarpeDiem, a novel machine learning approach based on the practice of daily ICU team rounds to identify clinical states for each of the 12,495 ICU patient-days in the cohort. We used the CarpeDiem approach to evaluate the effect of VAP and its resolution on clinical trajectories. FindingsPatients underwent a median [IQR] of 4 [2,7] transitions between 14 clinical states during their ICU stays. Clinical states were associated with differential hospital mortality. The long length-of-stay among patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia was associated with prolonged stays in clinical states defined by severe respiratory failure and with a lower frequency of transitions between clinical states. In all patients, including those with COVID-19, unresolving VAP episodes were associated with transitions to unfavorable states and hospital mortality. InterpretationCarpeDiem offers a machine learning approach to examine the effect of VAP on clinical outcomes. Our findings suggest an underappreciated contribution of unresolving secondary bacterial pneumonia to outcomes in mechanically ventilated patients with pneumonia, including due to SARS-CoV-2. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=110 SRC="FIGDIR/small/22280118v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (13K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@27a00eorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@17d2a80org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@716d8dorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@cf83ce_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG Graphical abstract Disentangling the contributions of ICU complications and interventions to ICU outcomes. (A) Traditional approaches evaluate the ICU stay as a black box with severity of illness measured on presentation and dichotomized survival at an arbitrary time point (e.g., day 28) or on ICU or hospital discharge. Hence, the effect of intercurrent complications and interventions cannot be easily measured, a problem that is compounded when ICU stays are long or significantly differ between groups. (B) Defining the ICU course by clinical features during each day in the ICU permits the association of a complication or intervention with transitions toward clinical states associated with favorable or unfavorable outcomes. C_FIG

Immune response to SARS-CoV-2 in the nasal mucosa in children and adults

RationaleDespite similar viral load and infectivity rates between children and adults infected with SARS-CoV-2, children rarely develop severe illness. Differences in the host response to the virus at the primary infection site are among the proposed mechanisms. ObjectivesTo investigate the host response to SARS-CoV-2, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza virus (IV) in the nasal mucosa in children and adults. MethodsClinical outcomes and gene expression in the nasal mucosa were analyzed in 36 children hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 24 children with RSV infection, 9 children with IV infection, 16 adults with mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 7 healthy pediatric and 13 healthy adult controls. ResultsIn both children and adults, infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to an interferon response in the nasal mucosa. The magnitude of the interferon response correlated with the abundance of viral reads and was comparable between symptomatic children and adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 and symptomatic children infected with RSV and IV. Cell type deconvolution identified an increased abundance of immune cells in the samples from children and adults with a viral infection. Expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 - key entry factors for SARS-CoV-2 - did not correlate with age or presence or absence of viral infection. ConclusionsOur findings support the hypothesis that differences in the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 determine disease severity, independent of viral load and interferon response at the primary infection primary site.

Lung transplantation for pulmonary fibrosis secondary to severe COVID-19

Lung transplantation can potentially be a life-saving treatment for patients with non-resolving COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome. Concerns limiting transplant include recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the allograft, technical challenges imposed by viral-mediated injury to the native lung, and potential risk for allograft infection by pathogens associated with ventilator-induced pneumonia in the native lung. Additionally, the native lung might recover, resulting in long-term outcomes preferable to transplant. Here, we report the results of the first two successful lung transplantation procedures in patients with non-resolving COVID-19 associated acute respiratory distress syndrome in the United States. We performed smFISH to detect both positive and negative strands of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the explanted lung tissue, extracellular matrix imaging using SHIELD tissue clearance, and single cell RNA-Seq on explant and warm post-mortem lung biopsies from patients who died from severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Lungs from patients with prolonged COVID-19 were free of virus but pathology showed extensive evidence of injury and fibrosis which resembled end-stage pulmonary fibrosis. Single cell RNA-Seq of the explanted native lungs from transplant and paired warm post-mortem autopsies showed similarities between late SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory distress syndrome and irreversible end-stage pulmonary fibrosis requiring lung transplantation. There was no recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 or pathogens associated with pre-transplant ventilator associated pneumonias following transplantation in either patient. Our findings suggest that some patients with severe COVID-19 develop fibrotic lung disease for which lung transplantation is the only option for survival. Single sentence summarySome patients with severe COVID-19 develop end-stage pulmonary fibrosis for which lung transplantation may be the only treatment.

Alveolitis in severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is driven by self-sustaining circuits between infected alveolar macrophages and T cells

Some patients infected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) develop severe pneumonia and the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) [1]. Distinct clinical features in these patients have led to speculation that the immune response to virus in the SARS-CoV-2-infected alveolus differs from other types of pneumonia [2]. We collected bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples from 86 patients with SARS-CoV-2-induced respiratory failure and 252 patients with known or suspected pneumonia from other pathogens and subjected them to flow cytometry and bulk transcriptomic profiling. We performed single cell RNA-Seq in 5 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples collected from patients with severe COVID-19 within 48 hours of intubation. In the majority of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the onset of mechanical ventilation, the alveolar space is persistently enriched in alveolar macrophages and T cells without neutrophilia. Bulk and single cell transcriptomic profiling suggest SARS-CoV-2 infects alveolar macrophages that respond by recruiting T cells. These T cells release interferon-gamma to induce inflammatory cytokine release from alveolar macrophages and further promote T cell recruitment. Our results suggest SARS-CoV-2 causes a slowly unfolding, spatially-limited alveolitis in which alveolar macrophages harboring SARS-CoV-2 transcripts and T cells form a positive feedback loop that drives progressive alveolar inflammation. This manuscript is accompanied by an online resource: https://www.nupulmonary.org/covid-19/ One sentence summarySARS-CoV-2-infected alveolar macrophages form positive feedback loops with T cells in patients with severe COVID-19.