The Paradox of Predictability Provides a Bridge Between Micro- and Macroevolution.

The relationship between the evolutionary dynamics observed in contemporary populations (microevolution) and evolution on timescales of millions of years (macroevolution) has been a topic of considerable debate. Historically, this debate centers on inconsistencies between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns. Here, we characterize a striking exception: emerging evidence indicates that standing variation in contemporary populations and macroevolutionary rates of phenotypic divergence are often positively correlated. This apparent consistency between micro- and macroevolution is paradoxical because it contradicts our previous understanding of phenotypic evolution and is so far unexplained. Here, we explore the prospects for bridging evolutionary timescales through an examination of this "paradox of predictability." We begin by explaining why the divergence-variance correlation is a paradox, followed by data analysis to show that the correlation is a general phenomenon across a broad range of temporal scales, from a few generations to tens of millions of years. Then we review complementary approaches from quantitative-genetics, comparative morphology, evo-devo, and paleontology to argue that they can help to address the paradox from the shared vantage point of recent work on evolvability. In conclusion, we recommend a methodological orientation that combines different kinds of short-term and long-term data using multiple analytical frameworks in an interdisciplinary research program. Such a program will increase our general understanding about how evolution works within and across timescales.

The genomics and evolution of inter-sexual mimicry and female-limited polymorphisms in damselflies.

Sex-limited morphs can provide profound insights into the evolution and genomic architecture of complex phenotypes. Inter-sexual mimicry is one particular type of sex-limited polymorphism in which a novel morph resembles the opposite sex. While inter-sexual mimics are known in both sexes and a diverse range of animals, their evolutionary origin is poorly understood. Here, we investigated the genomic basis of female-limited morphs and male mimicry in the common bluetail damselfly. Differential gene expression between morphs has been documented in damselflies, but no causal locus has been previously identified. We found that male mimicry originated in an ancestrally sexually dimorphic lineage in association with multiple structural changes, probably driven by transposable element activity. These changes resulted in ~900 kb of novel genomic content that is partly shared by male mimics in a close relative, indicating that male mimicry is a trans-species polymorphism. More recently, a third morph originated following the translocation of part of the male-mimicry sequence into a genomic position ~3.5 mb apart. We provide evidence of balancing selection maintaining male mimicry, in line with previous field population studies. Our results underscore how structural variants affecting a handful of potentially regulatory genes and morph-specific genes can give rise to novel and complex phenotypic polymorphisms.