New hope for methane reduction.

The Paris Agreement is not on track to meet its goals. But there's a sliver of hope. Something can be done about methane, the second-most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. With a lifetime of around a decade, cutting methane will have rapid impact. Much of the hope rests on China's new Methane Emissions Control Action Plan, accompanying the joint commitment for methane action announced with Chinese Premier Xi's and US President Biden's November meeting.

Very large fluxes of methane measured above Bolivian seasonal wetlands.

Methane (CH4) mole fractions from the large semiseasonal Llanos de Moxos wetlands (∼70,000 km2) in northern Bolivia were measured by aircraft flights and ground sampling during early March 2019 (late wet season). Daily fluxes of CH4 determined from the measurements using box models and inverse modeling were between 168 (± 50) and 456 (± 145) mg CH4⋅m-2⋅d-1 for the areas overflown, very high compared with those of previous Amazon basin studies. If the seasonality of the CH4 emissions is comparable to other parts of the Amazon Basin, the region could contribute as much as 8% of annual Amazonian CH4 emissions.

Is the destruction or removal of atmospheric methane a worthwhile option?

Removing methane from the air is possible, but do the costs outweigh the benefits? This note explores the question of whether removing methane from the atmosphere is justifiable. Destruction of methane by oxidation to CO2 eliminates 97% of the warming impact on a 100-yr time scale. Methane can be oxidized by a variety of methods including thermal or ultraviolet photocatalysis and various processes of physical, chemical or biological oxidizers. Each removal method has energy costs (with the risk of causing embedded CO2 emission that cancel the global warming gain), but in specific circumstances, including settings where air with high methane is habitually present, removal may be competitive with direct efforts to cut fugitive methane leaks. In all cases however, great care must be taken to ensure that the destruction has a net positive impact on the total global warming, and that the resources required would not be better used for stopping the methane from being emitted. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

Airborne quantification of net methane and carbon dioxide fluxes from European Arctic wetlands in Summer 2019.

Arctic wetlands and surrounding ecosystems are both a significant source of methane (CH4) and a sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) during summer months. However, precise quantification of this regional CH4 source and CO2 sink remains poorly characterized. A research flight using the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement was conducted in July 2019 over an area (approx. 78 000 km2) of mixed peatland and forest in northern Sweden and Finland. Area-averaged fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide were calculated using an aircraft mass balance approach. Net CH4 fluxes normalized to wetland area ranged between 5.93 ± 1.87 mg m-2 h-1 and 4.44 ± 0.64 mg m-2 h-1 (largest to smallest) over the region with a meridional gradient across three discrete areas enclosed by the flight survey. From largest to smallest, net CO2 sinks ranged between -513 ± 74 mg m-2 h-1 and -284 ± 89 mg m-2 h-1 and result from net uptake of CO2 by vegetation and soils in the biosphere. A clear gradient of decreasing bulk and area-averaged CH4 flux was identified from north to south across the study region, correlated with decreasing peat bog land area from north to south identified from CORINE land cover classifications. While N2O mole fraction was measured, no discernible gradient was measured over the flight track, but a minimum flux threshold using this mass balance method was calculated. Bulk (total area) CH4 fluxes determined via mass balance were compared with area-weighted upscaled chamber fluxes from the same study area and were found to agree well within measurement uncertainty. The mass balance CH4 fluxes were found to be significantly higher than the CH4 fluxes reported by many land-surface process models compiled as part of the Global Carbon Project. There was high variability in both flux distribution and magnitude between the individual models. This further supports previous studies that suggest that land-surface models are currently ill-equipped to accurately capture carbon fluxes inthe region. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

δ13C methane source signatures from tropical wetland and rice field emissions.

The atmospheric methane (CH4) burden is rising sharply, but the causes are still not well understood. One factor of uncertainty is the importance of tropical CH4 emissions into the global mix. Isotopic signatures of major sources remain poorly constrained, despite their usefulness in constraining the global methane budget. Here, a collection of new δ13CCH4 signatures is presented for a range of tropical wetlands and rice fields determined from air samples collected during campaigns from 2016 to 2020. Long-term monitoring of δ13CCH4 in ambient air has been conducted at the Chacaltaya observatory, Bolivia and Southern Botswana. Both long-term records are dominated by biogenic CH4 sources, with isotopic signatures expected from wetland sources. From the longer-term Bolivian record, a seasonal isotopic shift is observed corresponding to wetland extent suggesting that there is input of relatively isotopically light CH4 to the atmosphere during periods of reduced wetland extent. This new data expands the geographical extent and range of measurements of tropical wetland and rice δ13CCH4 sources and hints at significant seasonal variation in tropical wetland δ13CCH4 signatures which may be important to capture in future global and regional models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

Isotopic signatures of methane emissions from tropical fires, agriculture and wetlands: the MOYA and ZWAMPS flights.

We report methane isotopologue data from aircraft and ground measurements in Africa and South America. Aircraft campaigns sampled strong methane fluxes over tropical papyrus wetlands in the Nile, Congo and Zambezi basins, herbaceous wetlands in Bolivian southern Amazonia, and over fires in African woodland, cropland and savannah grassland. Measured methane δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures were in the range -55 to -49‰ for emissions from equatorial Nile wetlands and agricultural areas, but widely -60 ± 1‰ from Upper Congo and Zambezi wetlands. Very similar δ13CCH4 signatures were measured over the Amazonian wetlands of NE Bolivia (around -59‰) and the overall δ13CCH4 signature from outer tropical wetlands in the southern Upper Congo and Upper Amazon drainage plotted together was -59 ± 2‰. These results were more negative than expected. For African cattle, δ13CCH4 values were around -60 to -50‰. Isotopic ratios in methane emitted by tropical fires depended on the C3 : C4 ratio of the biomass fuel. In smoke from tropical C3 dry forest fires in Senegal, δ13CCH4 values were around -28‰. By contrast, African C4 tropical grass fire δ13CCH4 values were -16 to -12‰. Methane from urban landfills in Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have frequent waste fires, had δ13CCH4 around -37 to -36‰. These new isotopic values help improve isotopic constraints on global methane budget models because atmospheric δ13CCH4 values predicted by global atmospheric models are highly sensitive to the δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures applied to tropical wetland emissions. Field and aircraft campaigns also observed widespread regional smoke pollution over Africa, in both the wet and dry seasons, and large urban pollution plumes. The work highlights the need to understand tropical greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the goals of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, and to help reduce air pollution over wide regions of Africa. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

What do we know about the global methane budget? Results from four decades of atmospheric CH4 observations and the way forward.

Atmospheric CH4 is arguably the most interesting of the anthropogenically influenced, long-lived greenhouse gases. It has a diverse suite of sources, each presenting its own challenges in quantifying emissions, and while its main sink, atmospheric oxidation initiated by reaction with hydroxyl radical (OH), is well-known, determining the magnitude and trend in this and other smaller sinks remains challenging. Here, we provide an overview of the state of knowledge of the dynamic atmospheric CH4 budget of sources and sinks determined from measurements of CH4 and δ13CCH4 in air samples collected predominantly at background air sampling sites. While nearly four decades of direct measurements provide a strong foundation of understanding, large uncertainties in some aspects of the global CH4 budget still remain. More complete understanding of the global CH4 budget requires significantly more observations, not just of CH4 itself, but other parameters to better constrain key, but still uncertain, processes like wetlands and sinks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide: challenges alongthe path to Net Zero.

The causes of methane's renewed rise since 2007, accelerated growth from 2014 and record rise in 2020, concurrent with an isotopic shift to values more depleted in 13C, remain poorly understood. This rise is the dominant departure from greenhouse gas scenarios that limit global heating to less than 2°C. Thus a comprehensive understanding of methane sources and sinks, their trends and inter-annual variations are becoming more urgent. Efforts to quantify both sources and sinks and understand latitudinal and seasonal variations will improve our understanding of the methane cycle and its anthropogenic component. Nationally declared emissions inventories under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and promised contributions to emissions reductions under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement need to be verified independently by top-down observation. Furthermore, indirect effects on natural emissions, such as changes in aquatic ecosystems, also need to be quantified. Nitrous oxide is even more poorly understood. Despite this, options for mitigating methane and nitrous oxide emissions are improving rapidly, both in cutting emissions from gas, oil and coal extraction and use, and also from agricultural and waste sources. Reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emission are arguably among the most attractive immediate options for climate action. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Carbon isotopic characterisation and oxidation of UK landfill methane emissions by atmospheric measurements.

Biological oxidation of methane in landfill cover material can be calculated from the carbon isotopic signature (δ13CCH4) of emitted CH4. Enhanced microbial consumption of methane in the aerobic portion of the landfill cover is indicated by a shift to heavier (less depleted) isotopic values in the residual methane emitted to air. This study was conducted at four landfill sites in southwest England. Measurement of CH4 using a mobile vehicle mounted instrument at the four sites was coupled with Flexfoil bag sampling of ambient air for high-precision isotope analysis. Gas well collection systems were sampled to estimate landfill oxidised proportion. Closed or active status, seasonal variation, cap stripping and site closure impact on landfill isotopic signature were also assessed. The δ13CCH4 values ranged from -60 to -54‰, with an average value of -57 ± 2‰. Methane emissions from active cells are more depleted in 13C than closed sites. Methane oxidation, estimated from the isotope fractionation, ranged from 2.6 to 38.2%, with mean values of 9.5% for active and 16.2% for closed landfills, indicating that oxidised proportion is highly site specific.

Quantification of methane emissions from UK biogas plants.

The rising number of operational biogas plants in the UK brings a new emissions category to consider for methane monitoring, quantification and reduction. Minimising methane losses from biogas plants to the atmosphere is critical not only because of their contribution of methane to global warming but also with respect to the sustainability of renewable energy production. Mobile greenhouse gas surveys were conducted to detect plumes of methane emissions from the biogas plants in southern England that varied in their size, waste feed input materials and biogas utilization. Gaussian plume modelling was used to estimate total emissions of methane from ten biogas plants based on repeat passes through the plumes. Methane emission rates ranged from 0.1 to 58.7 kg CH4 hr-1, and the percentage of losses relative to the calculated production rate varied between 0.02 and 8.1%. The average emission rate was 15.9 kg CH4 hr-1, and the average loss was 3.7%. In general, methane emission rates from smaller farm biogas plants were higher than from larger food waste biogas plants. We also suggest that biogas methane emissions may account for between 0.4 and 3.8%, with an average being 1.9% of the total methane emissions in the UK excluding the sewage sludge biogas plants.

Environmental baseline monitoring for shale gas development in the UK: Identification and geochemical characterisation of local source emissions of methane to atmosphere.

Baseline mobile surveys of methane sources using vehicle-mounted instruments have been performed in the Fylde and Ryedale regions of Northern England over the 2016-19 period around proposed unconventional (shale) gas extraction sites. The aim was to identify and characterise methane sources ahead of hydraulically fractured shale gas extraction in the area around drilling sites. This allows a potential additional source of emissions to atmosphere to be readily distinguished from adjacent sources, should gas production take place. The surveys have used ethane:methane (C2:C1) ratios to separate combustion, thermogenic gas and biogenic sources. Sample collection of source plumes followed by high precision δ13C analysis of methane, to separate and isotopically characterise sources, adds additional biogenic source distinction between active and closed landfills, and ruminant eructations from manure. The surveys show that both drill sites and adjacent fixed monitoring sites have cow barns and gas network pipeline leaks as sources of methane within a 1 km range. These two sources are readily separated by isotopes (δ13C of -67 to -58‰ for barns, compared to -43 to -39‰ for gas leaks), and ethane:methane ratios (<0.001 for barns, compared to >0.05 for gas leaks). Under a well-mixed daytime atmospheric boundary layer these sources are generally detectable as above baseline elevations up to 100 m downwind for gas leaks and up to 500 m downwind for populated cow barns. It is considered that careful analysis of these proxies for unconventional production gas, if and when available, will allow any fugitive emissions from operations to be distinguished from surrounding sources.

Atmospheric Sampling on Ascension Island Using Multirotor UAVs.

As part of an NERC-funded project investigating the southern methane anomaly, a team drawn from the Universities of Bristol, Birmingham and Royal Holloway flew small unmanned multirotors from Ascension Island for the purposes of atmospheric sampling. The objective of these flights was to collect air samples from below, within and above a persistent atmospheric feature, the Trade Wind Inversion, in order to characterise methane concentrations and their isotopic composition. These parameters allow the methane in the different air masses to be tied to different source locations, which can be further analysed using back trajectory atmospheric computer modelling. This paper describes the campaigns as a whole including the design of the bespoke eight rotor aircraft and the operational requirements that were needed in order to collect targeted multiple air samples up to 2.5 km above the ground level in under 20 min of flight time. Key features of the system described include real-time feedback of temperature and humidity, as well as system health data. This enabled detailed targeting of the air sampling design to be realised and planned during the flight mission on the downward leg, a capability that is invaluable in the presence of uncertainty in the pre-flight meteorological data. Environmental considerations are also outlined together with the flight plans that were created in order to rapidly fly vertical transects of the atmosphere whilst encountering changing wind conditions. Two sampling campaigns were carried out in September 2014 and July 2015 with over one hundred high altitude sampling missions. Lessons learned are given throughout, including those associated with operating in the testing environment encountered on Ascension Island.

Assessing Connectivity Between an Overlying Aquifer and a Coal Seam Gas Resource Using Methane Isotopes, Dissolved Organic Carbon and Tritium.

Coal seam gas (CSG) production can have an impact on groundwater quality and quantity in adjacent or overlying aquifers. To assess this impact we need to determine the background groundwater chemistry and to map geological pathways of hydraulic connectivity between aquifers. In south-east Queensland (Qld), Australia, a globally important CSG exploration and production province, we mapped hydraulic connectivity between the Walloon Coal Measures (WCM, the target formation for gas production) and the overlying Condamine River Alluvial Aquifer (CRAA), using groundwater methane (CH4) concentration and isotopic composition (δ(13)C-CH4), groundwater tritium ((3)H) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. A continuous mobile CH4 survey adjacent to CSG developments was used to determine the source signature of CH4 derived from the WCM. Trends in groundwater δ(13)C-CH4 versus CH4 concentration, in association with DOC concentration and (3)H analysis, identify locations where CH4 in the groundwater of the CRAA most likely originates from the WCM. The methodology is widely applicable in unconventional gas development regions worldwide for providing an early indicator of geological pathways of hydraulic connectivity.

Greenhouse gases in the Earth system: setting the agenda to 2030.

What do we need to know about greenhouse gases? Over the next 20 years, how should scientists study the role of greenhouse gases in the Earth system and the changes that are taking place? These questions were addressed at a Royal Society scientific Discussion Meeting in London on 22-23 February 2010, with over 300 participants.