Modelling the effectiveness of an isolation strategy for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles.

The global outbreak of mpox in 2022 and subsequent sporadic outbreaks in 2023 highlighted the importance of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as case isolation. Individual variations in viral shedding dynamics may lead to either premature ending of isolation for infectious individuals, or unnecessarily prolonged isolation for those who are no longer infectious. Here, we developed a modeling framework to characterize heterogeneous mpox infectiousness profiles - specifically, when infected individuals cease to be infectious - based on viral load data. We examined the potential effectiveness of three different isolation rules: a symptom-based rule (the current guideline in many countries) and rules permitting individuals to stop isolating after either a fixed duration or following tests that indicate that they are no longer likely to be infectious. Our analysis suggests that the duration of viral shedding ranges from 23 to 50 days between individuals. The risk of infected individuals ending isolation too early was estimated to be 8.8% (95% CI: 6.7-10.5) after symptom clearance and 5.4% (95% CI: 4.1-6.7) after 3 weeks of isolation. While these results suggest that the current standard practice for ending isolation is effective, we found that unnecessary isolation following the infectious period could be reduced by adopting a testing-based rule.

Multiscale modeling of HBV infection integrating intra- and intercellular viral propagation to analyze extracellular viral markers.

Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is caused by the persistence of closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nucleus of infected hepatocytes. Despite available therapeutic anti-HBV agents, eliminating the cccDNA remains challenging. Thus, quantifying and understanding the dynamics of cccDNA are essential for developing effective treatment strategies and new drugs. However, such study requires repeated liver biopsy to measure the intrahepatic cccDNA, which is basically not accepted because liver biopsy is potentially morbid and not common during hepatitis B treatment. We here aimed to develop a noninvasive method for quantifying cccDNA in the liver using surrogate markers in peripheral blood. We constructed a multiscale mathematical model that explicitly incorporates both intracellular and intercellular HBV infection processes. The model, based on age-structured partial differential equations, integrates experimental data from in vitro and in vivo investigations. By applying this model, we roughly predicted the amount and dynamics of intrahepatic cccDNA within a certain range using specific viral markers in serum samples, including HBV DNA, HBsAg, HBeAg, and HBcrAg. Our study represents a significant step towards advancing the understanding of chronic HBV infection. The noninvasive quantification of cccDNA using our proposed method holds promise for improving clinical analyses and treatment strategies. By comprehensively describing the interactions of all components involved in HBV infection, our multiscale mathematical model provides a valuable framework for further research and the development of targeted interventions.

Infectious virus shedding duration reflects secretory IgA antibody response latency after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Infectious virus shedding from individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is used to estimate human-to-human transmission risk. Control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission requires identifying the immune correlates that protect infectious virus shedding. Mucosal immunity prevents infection by SARS-CoV-2, which replicates in the respiratory epithelium and spreads rapidly to other hosts. However, whether mucosal immunity prevents the shedding of the infectious virus in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals is unknown. We examined the relationship between viral RNA shedding dynamics, duration of infectious virus shedding, and mucosal antibody responses during SARS-CoV-2 infection. Anti-spike secretory IgA antibodies (S-IgA) reduced viral RNA load and infectivity more than anti-spike IgG/IgA antibodies in infected nasopharyngeal samples. Compared with the IgG/IgA response, the anti-spike S-IgA post-infection responses affected the viral RNA shedding dynamics and predicted the duration of infectious virus shedding regardless of the immune history. These findings highlight the importance of anti-spike S-IgA responses in individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 for preventing infectious virus shedding and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Developing medical countermeasures to shorten S-IgA response time may help control human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection and prevent future respiratory virus pandemics.

Modeling COVID-19 vaccine booster-elicited antibody response and impact of infection history.

The 3-dose COVID-19 vaccine (booster vaccination) has been offered worldwide. As booster vaccinations continue, it is important to understand the antibody dynamics elicited by booster vaccination in order to evaluate and develop vaccination needs and strategies. Here, we investigated longitudinal data by monitoring IgG antibodies against the receptor binding domain (RBD) in health care workers. We extended our previously developed mathematical model to booster vaccines and successfully fitted antibody titers over time in the absence and presence of past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Quantitative analysis using our mathematical model indicated that anti-RBD IgG titers increase to a comparable extent after booster vaccination, regardless of the presence or absence of infection, but infection history extends the duration of antibody response by 1.28 times. Such a mathematical modeling approach can be used to inform future vaccination strategies on the basis of an individual's immune history. Our simple quantitative approach can be extended to any kind of vaccination and therefore can form a basis for policy decisions regarding the distribution of booster vaccines to strengthen immunity in future pandemics.

Multiscale modeling of HBV infection integrating intra- and intercellular viral propagation for analyzing extracellular viral markers.

Chronic infection of hepatitis B virus (HBV) is caused by the persistence of closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nucleus of infected hepatocytes. Despite available therapeutic anti-HBV agents, eliminating the cccDNA remains challenging. The quantifying and understanding dynamics of cccDNA are essential for developing effective treatment strategies and new drugs. However, it requires a liver biopsy to measure the intrahepatic cccDNA, which is basically not accepted because of the ethical aspect. We here aimed to develop a non-invasive method for quantifying cccDNA in the liver using surrogate markers present in peripheral blood. We constructed a multiscale mathematical model that explicitly incorporates both intracellular and intercellular HBV infection processes. The model, based on age-structured partial differential equations (PDEs), integrates experimental data from in vitro and in vivo investigations. By applying this model, we successfully predicted the amount and dynamics of intrahepatic cccDNA using specific viral markers in serum samples, including HBV DNA, HBsAg, HBeAg, and HBcrAg. Our study represents a significant step towards advancing the understanding of chronic HBV infection. The non-invasive quantification of cccDNA using our proposed methodology holds promise for improving clinical analyses and treatment strategies. By comprehensively describing the interactions of all components involved in HBV infection, our multiscale mathematical model provides a valuable framework for further research and the development of targeted interventions.

Maternal embryonic leucine zipper kinase (MELK) optimally regulates the HIV-1 uncoating process.

Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) attaches to target cells and releases the capsid, an essential component of the viral core that contains viral RNA, into the cytoplasm. After invading target cells, the core structure gradually collapses. The timing of the disassembly of the HIV-1 capsid is essential for efficient viral cDNA synthesis and transport into the nucleus. HIV-1 uncoating is controlled by the host factor maternal embryonic leucine zipper kinase (MELK); however, the quantitative and dynamic relationship between the HIV-1 uncoating process and HIV-1 infection remains unresolved. In this study, we quantified the uncoating process on HIV-1 cDNA synthesis and transport into the nucleus by combining a mathematical model with in vitro data. In addition, detailed in silico simulations demonstrated host factors, including MELK, optimize transport efficiency. Our experimental-mathematical approach revealed quantitative dynamics of the HIV-1 uncoating process, indicating that increasing the speed of uncoating always reduces the amount of HIV-1 cDNA in the nucleus.