Validation of the BOADICEA model in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers.

BACKGROUND: No validation has been conducted for the BOADICEA multifactorial breast cancer risk prediction model specifically in BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant (PV) carriers to date. Here, we evaluated the performance of BOADICEA in predicting 5-year breast cancer risks in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 PV carriers ascertained through clinical genetic centres. METHODS: We evaluated the model calibration and discriminatory ability in the prospective TRANsIBCCS cohort study comprising 1614 BRCA1 and 1365 BRCA2 PV carriers (209 incident cases). Study participants had lifestyle, reproductive, hormonal, anthropometric risk factor information, a polygenic risk score based on 313 SNPs and family history information. RESULTS: The full multifactorial model considering family history together with all other risk factors was well calibrated overall (E/O=1.07, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.24) and in quintiles of predicted risk. Discrimination was maximised when all risk factors were considered (Harrell's C-index=0.70, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.74; area under the curve=0.79, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.82). The model performance was similar when evaluated separately in BRCA1 or BRCA2 PV carriers. The full model identified 5.8%, 12.9% and 24.0% of BRCA1/2 PV carriers with 5-year breast cancer risks of <1.65%, <3% and <5%, respectively, risk thresholds commonly used for different management and risk-reduction options. CONCLUSION: BOADICEA may be used to aid personalised cancer risk management and decision-making for BRCA1 and BRCA2 PV carriers. It is implemented in the free-access CanRisk tool (https://www.canrisk.org/).

TP53-associated early breast cancer: new observations from a large cohort.

BACKGROUND: A recent large, well-annotated international cohort of patients with Li-Fraumeni syndrome and early-stage breast cancer was examined for shared features. METHODS: This multicenter cohort study included women with a germline TP53 pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant and nonmetastatic breast cancer diagnosed between 2002 and 2022. Clinical and genetic data were obtained from institutional registries and clinical charts. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize proportions, and differences were assessed using χ2 or Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Metachronous contralateral breast cancer risk, radiation-induced sarcoma risk, and recurrence-free survival were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier methodology. RESULTS: Among 227 women who met study criteria, the median age of first breast cancer diagnosis was 37 years (range = 21-71), 11.9% presented with bilateral synchronous breast cancer, and 18.1% had ductal carcinoma in situ only. In total, 166 (73.1%) patients underwent mastectomies, including 67 bilateral mastectomies as first breast cancer surgery. Among those patients with retained breast tissue, the contralateral breast cancer rate was 25.3% at 5 years. Among 186 invasive tumors, 72.1% were stages I to II, 48.9% were node negative, and the most common subtypes were hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative (40.9%) and hormone receptor positive/HER2 positive (34.4%). At a median follow-up of 69.9 months (interquartile range = 32.6-125.9), invasive hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative disease had the highest recurrence risk among the subtypes (5-year recurrence-free survival = 61.1%, P = .001). Among those who received radiation therapy (n = 79), the 5-year radiation-induced sarcoma rate was 4.8%. CONCLUSION: We observed high rates of ductal carcinoma in situ, hormone receptor-positive, and HER2-positive breast cancers, with a worse outcome in the hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative luminal tumors, despite appropriate treatment. Confirmation of these findings in further studies could have implications for breast cancer care in those with Li-Fraumeni syndrome.