Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the return on investment (ROI) of the New York Tobacco Control Programme (NY TCP). SETTING: New York and other states of the USA. INTERVENTIONS: NY TCP. OUTCOMES: Smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable healthcare expenditures (SAEs), smoking-attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLL), the dollar value of YLL and the ROI for healthcare expenditures and mortality. DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a synthetic control method to estimate the effectiveness of NY TCP funding on smoking prevalence. The synthetic control method created a comparison group that best matched the adult smoking prevalence trend in New York state in the period prior to implementation of the NY TCP and compared smoking prevalence in the state to smoking prevalence in the synthetic control in the period after treatment (2001-2019). The synthetic control group represents what the trend in smoking prevalence in New York would have been had there been no tobacco control expenditures. The ROI was calculated as net savings for each outcome divided by net programme expenditures. RESULTS: Cumulative savings in SAE in New York from 2001 to 2019 amounted to US$13.2 billion. An estimated 41 771 smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) were averted in New York from 2001 to 2019, and an estimated 672 141 YLL averted as a result of NY TCP funding in the same period. From 2001 to 2019, the ROI for SAE in New York was approximately 14, the economic value ROI of the YLL due to SAD was nearly 145 and the combined ROI was almost 160. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found relatively large ROIs for the NY TCP, which suggests that the programme-which lowers SAE and saves lives-is an efficient use of public funds.

It's Not Just: Evaluation of a Media Campaign to Motivate Action Around Targeting of Menthol Tobacco in Black Communities.

Introduction: For more than 60 years, tobacco companies have aggressively marketed menthol tobacco products in Black communities. In 2021, New York State Department of Health-funded grantees launched a media campaign aimed toward civically engaged New York adults to educate and mobilize community action to prevent targeted marketing of menthol tobacco. This study examined audience reactions to the campaign and associations between campaign awareness and key outcomes. Methods: Following campaign implementation, we administered 2 online, cross-sectional surveys to 2,000 civically engaged New York adults to assess campaign awareness, audience reactions, and campaign-related attitudes and behaviors. We examined sociodemographic differences in audience reactions and assessed multivariate associations between campaign awareness and key outcomes. Results: Overall, 40% of respondents were aware of the campaign. Perceived advertisement (ad) effectiveness was higher among Black, Hispanic, and nonsmoking respondents and those aware of the campaign. Negative reactions to ads were higher at wave 1, among non-Hispanic White and male respondents, and among current smokers. Campaign awareness was positively associated with campaign-related beliefs. The association between campaign awareness and support for a menthol ban varied by survey wave and race, with positive associations at wave 2 and among non-Hispanic White respondents only. Among wave 2 respondents only, campaign awareness was positively associated with actions to reduce the targeting of menthol in Black communities. Conclusion: Media campaigns can play an important role in raising awareness of menthol tobacco product targeting in Black communities and building public support for local and statewide menthol restrictions that may be implemented before federal product standards are in place.

Promising Themes for Electronic Cigarette Prevention Campaigns for Youth and Young Adults.

INTRODUCTION: Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are the most widely used tobacco product by youth and young adults in the United States (U.S.). Effective prevention campaigns require identification of appropriate content focus for message construction. METHODS: A sample of 2,622 youth and young adults ages 15-24 were recruited through social media advertisements and completed an online survey. Respondents reported current e-cigarette use or intention to use if not currently using. They also indicated agreement or disagreement with 75 e-cigarette-related beliefs representing 16 themes. The relative promise of each theme/belief for campaign messaging was investigated by examining its association with the behavior/intention outcomes and the opportunity for positive change in its distribution (room to move). RESULTS: All themes showed significant associations with the behavior (ORs = 2.49 to 19.04) and intention (ORs = 2.21 to 6.11) outcomes. Room to move for themes ranged from 32.9% to 96.3% in behavior analysis and 15.6% to 93.9% in intention analysis. A normed relative promise index (M = 50, SD = 17) showed flavors (72), comparison to cigarettes (69), and relaxation and mental health (68) as the top ranked themes. Subgroup analyses by demographics and gender identity revealed few differences. Results on the belief level were largely consistent with those on the theme level. CONCLUSIONS: Data from this study provide timely evidence for the relative value of various themes/beliefs as potential targets for message development in e-cigarette prevention campaigns. Final selection of target themes/beliefs requires consideration of openness to persuasion, which may be informed by additional testing. IMPLICATIONS: Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are the most widely used tobacco products among youth and young adults in the United States (US). This study adds new evidence on the relative promise of a wide range of e-cigarette beliefs and belief clusters (themes) as potential targets for message development in educational campaigns. This evidence is important to consider in future campaign efforts directed at the youth and young adult populations in the US.

Believability of messaging concerning a hypothetical product standard to lower a constituent in cigarettes or smokeless tobacco among U.S. Adults who use tobacco.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has regulatory authority to implement tobacco product standards to reduce harmful and potentially harmful constituents (HPHCs). This study examines people who use tobacco products' awareness of FDA's tobacco regulatory authority, knowledge of HPHCs, and belief in hypothetical tobacco product standard statements. We recruited adults who reported currently using tobacco (N = 1,592) from the National Panel of Tobacco Consumer Studies and randomized them to one of four conditions. Participants viewed a stimulus which consisted of a statement about a hypothetical product standard that would reduce the level of a chemical in cigarettes or smokeless tobacco (ST) and reduce cases of cancer or heart attack and stroke. A small majority of participants correctly believed that FDA regulates tobacco; however, the percentage of participants who recognized HPHCs varied widely depending upon the chemical. People who currently use ST found chemical and health statements more believable than people who did not currently use ST. Participants found it more believable that cigarettes, not ST, could be made with fewer harm-causing chemicals, and their belief in the chemical and health statements did not differ based on the health outcome specified in the hypothetical product standard statement.

Changes in Sales of Vaping Products and Cigarettes Associated With the New York State Flavored Vaping Product Sales Restriction.

INTRODUCTION: New York (NY) implemented a statewide restriction on the retail sale of flavored vaping products to reduce availability of vaping products having youth-appealing flavors in 2020. We assessed the intended effects of the NY law on sales of flavored vaping products and explored whether policy implementation had unintended effects on consumer behavior by evaluating policy-associated changes in sales of combusted cigarettes, which could serve as more harmful substitute products for NY consumers of flavored vaping products. AIMS AND METHODS: We analyzed custom product-level weekly retail tobacco sales scanner data for NY and a comparison state (California [CA]) for convenience stores and other outlets from June 2018 through June 2021. We categorized flavor descriptors for vaping products as flavored or as tobacco or unflavored and categorized cigarettes as menthol or non-menthol. We used a difference-in-difference model to assess the effect of the sales restriction on unit sales of flavored and unflavored vaping products and menthol and non-menthol cigarettes in NY compared with CA. RESULTS: Following NY policy implementation, flavored and total vaping product sales decreased in NY relative to CA. Unflavored vaping product sales increased in NY, while menthol cigarette sales did not change significantly relative to CA sales. CONCLUSIONS: The NY flavored vaping product policy was associated with fewer sales of flavored and total vaping products. The increase in sales of unflavored vaping products did not suggest complete substitution, and sales data suggest that consumers did not turn to cigarettes after flavored vaping products became unavailable. IMPLICATIONS: This study provides evidence that NY's flavored vaping product policy is associated with reduced flavored vaping product access and sales. Our analyses of potential unintended consequences indicate that some consumers switched from flavored to unflavored vaping products, but that cigarette sales did not change concurrent with the policy which means that decreased availability of flavored vaping products did not result in vapers switching to cigarettes. NY's policy had its intended effect with limited unintended consequences.

Effectiveness of a media campaign promoting health care provider tobacco dependence treatment.

The New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) developed a provider-focused media campaign to encourage provision of evidence-based, clinical tobacco dependence treatment (TDT). The purpose of this study was to assess providers' awareness of the campaign and the relationship between campaign awareness and changes in campaign-related beliefs and clinical TDT intervention. We conducted a longitudinal, mailed survey of health care providers in New York State (n = 851; AAPOR3 RR: 24.6%). We estimated descriptive statistics and used multivariable regression analyses to assess whether changes in key outcomes (campaign-related beliefs and clinical TDT) from pre- to post-campaign vary by self-reported campaign awareness. Approximately 12% of providers were aware of the campaign. In multivariable analyses, changes from pre- to post-campaign in provider beliefs that the nicotine patch and gum are very effective at helping patients quit were greater for providers aware of the campaign compared with those not aware of the campaign (For patch: OR 2.17, CI 1.06-4.45, p = 0.03; for gum: OR 2.78, CI: 1.24-6.27, p = 0.01), but not for provider behavior. After seeing the NYSDOH campaign, providers' beliefs about the effectiveness of the patch and gum increased. Many state tobacco control programs and health care organizations are implementing tobacco-related policies and systems to facilitate the provision of clinical TDT; this study suggests that a digital and print provider-focused media campaign has the potential to complement health systems change interventions. Future studies should seek to identify ways to modify ad delivery to increase campaign awareness to maximize potential campaign impact.

Youth and adult understanding of public displays of information about harmful constituents in cigarette smoke.

The U.S. FDA is required by law to publicly display a list of harmful and potentially harmful constituents (HPHCs) "by brand and by quantity in each brand and subbrand" in a format that is "understandable and not misleading to a lay person." An online experiment examined youth and adult understanding of which HPHCs are present in cigarette smoke, understanding of health effects of smoking cigarettes, and endorsement of misleading information after viewing HPHC information displayed in one of six formats. We recruited youth (N = 1324) and adults (N = 2904) from an online panel and randomized them to one of six formats of presenting HPHC information. Participants responded to survey items before and after exposure to an HPHC format. Understanding of HPHCs in cigarette smoke and understanding of health effects of cigarette smoking significantly increased pre- to post-exposure for all formats. Respondents (20.6% to 73.5%) endorsed misleading beliefs after exposure to information about HPHCs. Endorsement of the one misleading belief that was measured pre- and post-exposure significantly increased for viewers of four formats. All formats increased understanding of HPHCs in cigarette smoke and the health effects of smoking cigarettes, but some participants endorsed each misleading belief after exposure to HPHC information.

The Impact of Social Media Use and Gaming on Initiation of Smokeless Tobacco Use Among Rural Male Youth.

PURPOSE: Smokeless tobacco (SLT) use is more common among White male youth in rural locations than among other youth. Previous literature documents risk factors for SLT use (e.g., perceived harm). However, no research has examined whether SLT initiation is associated with the use of social media and video games, despite the high prevalence of those behaviors among adolescent males. METHODS: As part of the evaluation of "The Real Cost" smokeless prevention campaign, we conducted a baseline survey of a cohort of US males aged 11-16 in 2016 and four follow-up surveys conducted approximately every 8 months. We used discrete-time survival analysis to examine factors associated with SLT initiation. Logistic regression estimated the odds of initiation as a function of lagged values of key predictors (social media use in tertiles and frequency of gaming) and other baseline and lagged correlates. The model controlled for campaign exposure. RESULTS: Relative to the lowest tertile of social media use, moderate (odds ratio [OR] = 1.80) or high use (OR = 2.77) was associated with increased risk of SLT initiation at the subsequent survey wave. Relative to playing every few weeks or less, playing video games once a day (OR = 0.50) or several times a day (OR = 0.33) was associated with decreased risk of SLT initiation. DISCUSSION: SLT initiation was positively associated with social media use and negatively associated with gaming. Future research should explore reasons for the protective nature of gaming (e.g., social support, improved mood) and whether parental supervision of social media use could mitigate its negative impact.

Changes in Availability of ENDS: 2019-2020, U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Events during 2019 and 2020, such as the outbreak of e-cigarette, or vaping, product use‒associated lung injury; manufacturer product withdrawals; federal regulations; and coronavirus disease 2019, potentially affected the retail availability of ENDS in the U.S. Measuring changes in ENDS availability informs the understanding of the ENDS marketplace and contextualizes sales trends. METHODS: Joinpoint regression was used to estimate slope changes in the number of available ENDS in 2019 and 2020 and considered correspondence with tobacco marketplace events. Availability, the weekly number of unique universal product codes with nonzero sales, was derived from NielsenIQ scanner data. U.S. ENDS availability was modeled overall and by subproduct and flavor category within subproduct: mint, menthol, tobacco flavored, and undetermined. RESULTS: ENDS availability increased by 66% from January 2019 to December 2020. Availability decreased by 43% among prefilled cartridges and increased by 511% among disposables, both led by flavored varieties. During January 2020-February 2020, prefilled cartridge availability decreased by 23.71 universal product codes per week. During July 2020-August 2020, disposable availability increased by 27.90 universal product codes per week, led by flavored products. CONCLUSIONS: ENDS availability increased during 2019 through 2020, led by a rise in flavored disposables. Multiple slope changes in ENDS availability occurred, many coinciding with tobacco marketplace events. The slope of ENDS explicitly prioritized for federal enforcement (i.e., flavored prefilled cartridges) notably decreased in early 2020 and, soon thereafter, the slope of ENDS not explicitly prioritized for enforcement (e.g., flavored disposables) notably increased, suggesting an association with U.S. Food and Drug Administration's prioritized enforcement guidance.

Expanding local sales restrictions on flavoured tobacco products to include menthol: retail sales changes in two Minnesota cities.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota, expanded existing local sales restrictions on flavoured (non-menthol/mint/wintergreen) tobacco products ('flavour policies') to include menthol/mint/wintergreen-flavoured tobacco products ('menthol policies'). All policies included exemptions for certain store types. METHODS: We obtained weekly retail tobacco product sales for 2015 through 2019 from NielsenIQ for convenience stores and other outlets in the policy jurisdictions and two comparison areas (rest of the state of Minnesota and total USA). We standardised unit sales across product categories and used NielsenIQ-provided descriptors to classify products as menthol (including mint/wintergreen) or flavoured (non-menthol/non-tobacco). Using single group interrupted time series models, we analysed unit sales by product category and by flavour separately for each geography to assess associations between menthol policy implementation and trends in tobacco product unit sales. RESULTS: Following menthol policy implementation, unit sales of menthol cigarettes and menthol smokeless tobacco decreased in both cities, with smaller decreases in comparison areas. Flavoured cigar sales-which decreased following the flavour policies-further decreased after the menthol policies, while sales of menthol electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) increased in both cities and sales of flavoured ENDS increased in St. Paul. CONCLUSION: Expanding flavour policies to include menthol/mint/wintergreen was associated with significant decreases in unit sales of most menthol products and in total unit sales by tobacco product category. Increases in menthol and flavoured ENDS sales in these cities may be associated with legal sales by exempted retailers and/or illicit sales by non-compliant retailers, highlighting opportunities for retailer education and enforcement.

Youth vaping beliefs and behaviors: evidence from New York.

Current use of vaping products has increased in recent years among youth in the United States. We conducted cross-sectional surveys of vaping product users aged 15-17 in New York in 2017 and 2019 to assess vaping freqency, reported nicotine content of vaping products used, risk perceptions of vaping and openness to vaping cannabis (2019 survey only). Between 2017 and 2019, the proportion of youth vapers who were frequent vaping product users increased from 16.8% to 26.2% (P < 0.05). The proportion of youth vapers who usually used high-nicotine vaping products also increased, from 12.6% to 40.0% (P < 0.05). In both years, the use of high-nicotine vaping products was positively associated with frequent use (P < 0.05). The perceived likelihood of harm from vaping increased (P < 0.05), but respondents' perception of harm from using tobacco-flavored vaping products remained higher than that from using menthol/mint or sweet flavors. In 2019, 60.6% of respondents reported having tried vaping cannabis. Results suggest shifts in youth vaping behavior toward more frequent use and use of higher nicotine vaping products, support previous findings about youth misperceptions about health risks of flavored vaping products and highlight openness to vaping cannabis among youth vaping product users.

JUUL's 2019 Removal of Mint-Flavored Pods and Changes to the Retail Environment of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems in Florida and the United States.

INTRODUCTION: The increase in youth electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use coincided with JUUL's rapid rise, which prompted investigations and lawsuits aimed at this leading brand. In response, JUUL discontinued sweet flavors in late 2018, followed by mint flavors in November 2019. We assessed ENDS sales and prices at both the state and national level before and after JUUL's removal of mint flavors. AIMS AND METHODS: Nielsen retail sales data on ENDS products from convenience and food stores in 4-week aggregates were analyzed between January 2019 and January 2020 in Florida and the United States. Standardized units were created. Unit market share and growth rates were calculated for top brands and flavors in the periods before and after JUUL's mint removal. Average prices within brand and product type were calculated. RESULTS: Following JUUL's removal of mint in November 2019, JUUL's market share dropped from over 66% in Florida and the United States to 37.1% (Florida) and 55.1% (United States). In January 2020, the second leading brands were Puff Bar (15.0%) in Florida and Vuse (18.1%) in the United States. Mint market share decreased and share of all other flavor categories increased, particularly menthol and concept. Total ENDS sales increased in Florida but decreased in the United States. Average prices of ENDS devices decreased. CONCLUSIONS: While JUUL's actions led to a decline in its sales, Puff Bar emerged and menthol and concept flavors experienced growth. Findings also demonstrate how changes by influential brands differentially affect purchase patterns at the national and state level. IMPLICATIONS: These findings support the growing body of evidence that tobacco industry self-regulation, with selective flavor removal by the leading ENDS brand in this case, is insufficient to reduce total ENDS sales, including sales of flavored products which are preferred by youth. Results suggest that brand and flavor substitution compensated for the removal of mint JUUL pods. Understanding changes to the ENDS market in response to industry actions, at both the state and national level, can inform future regulation and interventions. These findings can also inform efforts to prevent and reduce youth ENDS use.

Youth Tobacco Use Before and After Local Sales Restrictions on Flavored and Menthol Tobacco Products in Minnesota.

PURPOSE: Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota, implemented sales restrictions on all flavored tobacco products in 2016 ("flavor policy") and expanded the restrictions to menthol tobacco products in 2018 ("menthol policy"). We examined data from surveys of Minnesota youth collected before and after the flavor and menthol policies. METHODS: We measured changes in youth tobacco use prevalence using data from the Minnesota Youth Tobacco Survey and the Minnesota Student Survey. We analyzed tobacco use overall and, where possible, by product category and flavor category among survey respondents in the Twin Cities area (including Minneapolis and St. Paul) and the rest of the state of Minnesota (ROS). RESULTS: In the Minnesota Youth Tobacco Survey, overall youth use of any tobacco product significantly increased in ROS (by 26.6%) but did not change in the Twin Cities after the flavor policies. Similarly, the Minnesota Student Survey showed the youth use of any tobacco product increased to a greater extent in ROS (by 44.6%) than that in the Twin Cities (by 34.6%) after implementation of the menthol policies. In both surveys, increases in youth use of particular tobacco products were less pronounced in the Twin Cities relative to the rest of the state. DISCUSSION: Policies restricting sales of all flavored and menthol tobacco products may be associated with attenuated increases in youth use of tobacco product categories. Policy exemptions and proximity to nonpolicy jurisdictions may have diluted the effect of policies on overall tobacco product use among youth tobacco users.

Changes in Reported Secondhand Smoke Incursions and Smoking Behavior after Implementation of a Federal Smoke-Free Rule in New York State Federally Subsidized Public Housing.

This study assessed changes in smoking behavior and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure after implementation of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) rule prohibiting the use of cigarettes, cigars, pipes, and waterpipes in all federally subsidized public housing, including within residential units (apartments). Using quantitative data from a repeated cross-sectional mail survey of New York State residents of five public housing authorities (N = 761 at Wave 1, N = 649 at Wave 2), we found evidence of policy compliance (99% decrease in odds of self-reported smoking in units, OR = 0.01, p < 0.01, CI: 0.00−0.16), reduced SHS incursions (77% decrease in odds of smelling smoke within developments, OR = 0.23, p < 0.01, CI: 0.13−0.44), and lower reported smoking rates in July 2018 (9.5%, down from 16.8%), 10 months after implementation of the rule. Despite evident success, one-fifth of residents reported smelling smoke inside their apartment at least a few times per week. This study provides insights into how the policy was implemented in selected New York public housing authorities, offers evidence of policy-intended effects, and highlights challenges to consistent and impactful policy implementation.

Identifying Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Brands and Flavors on Instagram: Natural Language Processing Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) brands, such as JUUL, used social media as a key component of their marketing strategy, which led to massive sales growth from 2015 to 2018. During this time, ENDS use rapidly increased among youths and young adults, with flavored products being particularly popular among these groups. OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study is to develop a named entity recognition (NER) model to identify potential emerging vaping brands and flavors from Instagram post text. NER is a natural language processing task for identifying specific types of words (entities) in text based on the characteristics of the entity and surrounding words. METHODS: NER models were trained on a labeled data set of 2272 Instagram posts coded for ENDS brands and flavors. We compared three types of NER models-conditional random fields, a residual convolutional neural network, and a fine-tuned distilled bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (FTDB) network-to identify brands and flavors in Instagram posts with key model outcomes of precision, recall, and F1 scores. We used data from Nielsen scanner sales and Wikipedia to create benchmark dictionaries to determine whether brands from established ENDS brand and flavor lists were mentioned in the Instagram posts in our sample. To prevent overfitting, we performed 5-fold cross-validation and reported the mean and SD of the model validation metrics across the folds. RESULTS: For brands, the residual convolutional neural network exhibited the highest mean precision (0.797, SD 0.084), and the FTDB exhibited the highest mean recall (0.869, SD 0.103). For flavors, the FTDB exhibited both the highest mean precision (0.860, SD 0.055) and recall (0.801, SD 0.091). All NER models outperformed the benchmark brand and flavor dictionary look-ups on mean precision, recall, and F1. Comparing between the benchmark brand lists, the larger Wikipedia list outperformed the Nielsen list in both precision and recall. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that NER models correctly identified ENDS brands and flavors in Instagram posts at rates competitive with, or better than, others in the published literature. Brands identified during manual annotation showed little overlap with those in Nielsen scanner data, suggesting that NER models may capture emerging brands with limited sales and distribution. NER models address the challenges of manual brand identification and can be used to support future infodemiology and infoveillance studies. Brands identified on social media should be cross-validated with Nielsen and other data sources to differentiate emerging brands that have become established from those with limited sales and distribution.

Changes in retail sales of tobacco products in Ontario after a menthol sales restriction.

BACKGROUND: Ontario, Canada prohibited menthol tobacco product sales beginning 1 January 2017. We measured retail sales of menthol cigarettes and possible substitute products before and after policy implementation in Ontario. METHODS: We licensed retail scanner data for tobacco product sales in Ontario and British Columbia (BC), a comparison province without a menthol tobacco policy at that time. We assessed changes in per capita unit sales (per 1000 people) from pre-policy (January-June 2016) to post-policy (January-June 2017) periods. Classification of cigarettes as menthol or non-menthol, or having menthol-suggestive descriptors ('green', 'blue', 'silver' and 'fresh'), was based on scanner data. RESULTS: Ontario menthol cigarette sales decreased 93%, from 596 to 40 packs per capita compared with a 2% decrease (696 to 679 packs per capita) in BC. Menthol capsule cigarette sales remained low in Ontario (<1% of total cigarette sales) but rose sixfold in BC. Although cigar sales data were unavailable, substitution appeared minimal; sales of non-menthol cigarettes increased 0.4% in Ontario (11 470 to 11 519 packs per capita) while vaping product sales decreased. Ontario had a larger increase in sales of cigarettes with menthol-suggestive descriptors (11% increase) than BC (3% increase). In Ontario, nearly all (>99%) pre-policy sales of cigarettes with 'green' menthol-suggestive descriptors were menthol cigarettes, but post-policy, 94% of 'green' cigarettes sold were non-menthol. CONCLUSIONS: Ontario's menthol policy was associated with a decrease in retail sales of cigarettes classified as menthol, with little evidence of product substitution. Understanding changes in sales of cigarettes with menthol-suggestive descriptors would be informative.

Perceived Message Effectiveness and Campaign-Targeted Beliefs: Evidence of Reciprocal Effects in Youth Tobacco Prevention.

Perceived message effectiveness (PE) has been widely used in campaign formative research and evaluation. The relationship between PE and actual message effectiveness (AE) is often assumed to be causal and unidirectional, but careful conceptualization and empirical testing of this and other causal possibilities are generally lacking. In this study, we investigated the potential reciprocity in the relationship between PE and AE in the context of a national youth tobacco education campaign. In so doing, we also sought to generate much needed evidence on PE's utility to predict campaign-targeted outcomes in youth tobacco prevention. Using five waves of campaign evaluation data (N = 1,128), we found significant lagged associations between PE and campaign-targeted beliefs, and vice versa. These results suggest a dynamic, mutually influencing relationship between PE and AE and call for greater attention to such dynamics in campaign research.

"The Real Cost" Smokeless campaign: changes in beliefs about smokeless tobacco among rural boys, a longitudinal randomized controlled field trial.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of current smokeless tobacco (SLT) use in 2019 among high school students was 4.8%, and the overall rate of SLT use was higher among high school boys (7.5%) than girls (1.8%). The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) launched "The Real Cost" Smokeless media campaign in April 2016 to educate rural youth about the dangers of SLT use. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of "The Real Cost" Smokeless campaign. METHODS: We use a 3-year (Jan 2016 - Dec 2018) randomized controlled longitudinal field trial that consists of a baseline survey of boys and a parent/guardian and four follow-up surveys of the boys. The cohort includes 2200 boys who were 11 to 16 years old at baseline and lived in the rural segments of 30 media markets (15 treatment markets and 15 control). "The Real Cost" Smokeless campaign targets boys who are 12 to 17 years old in 35 media markets. It focuses primarily on graphic depictions of cosmetic and long-term health consequences of SLT use. The key outcome measures include beliefs and attitudes toward SLT that are targeted (explicitly or implicitly) by campaign messages. RESULTS: Using multivariate difference-in-difference analysis (conducted in 2019 and 2020), we found that agreement with 4 of the 11 explicit campaign-targeted belief and attitude measures increased significantly from baseline to post-campaign launch among boys 14 to 16 years old in treatment vs. control markets. Agreement did not increase for boys 11-13 years old in treatment vs. control markets and only increased for one targeted message for the overall sample. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that "The Real Cost" Smokeless campaign influenced beliefs and attitudes among older boys in campaign markets and that a campaign focused on health consequences of tobacco use can be targeted to rural boys, influence beliefs about SLT use, and potentially prevent SLT use.

Impact of Little Cigars and Cigarillos Packaging Features on Product Preference.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) among young adult cigarette smokers in the period July-August 2018 to examine their preference for cigarillos in response to various packaging-related attributes, including flavor, flavor description, quality descriptors, pack size, and prices. METHODS: A convenience sample of 566 US young adult cigarette smokers aged 18-34, among whom 296 were current little cigar and cigarillo (LCC) smokers, were recruited using Facebook ads and invited to participate in an online (Qualtrics) tobacco survey containing DCE and tobacco use questions. In the experiment, participants chose among two cigarillo products or "neither" (opt-out). RESULTS: We analyzed preferences for LCCs using multinomial, nested, random parameter logit models. Results showed that young adult cigarette smokers preferred grape over menthol, tobacco/regular, and wine flavors; "color only" and "color and text" flavor depictions over text only; "smooth" and "sweet" quality descriptors over "satisfying"; and larger pack sizes and lower prices. CONCLUSIONS: Regulating packaging-related features will impact LCC choices among US young adult smokers. FDA regulation over these packaging-related features may impact LCC use among young adult smokers.

Implementation of a comprehensive flavoured tobacco product sales restriction and retail tobacco sales.

OBJECTIVE: San Francisco's comprehensive restriction on flavoured tobacco sales applies to all flavours (including menthol), all products and all retailers (without exemptions). This study evaluates associations of policy implementation with changes in tobacco sales in San Francisco and in two California cities without any sales restriction. METHODS: Using weekly retail sales data (July 2015 through December 2019), we computed sales volume in equivalent units within product categories and the proportion of flavoured tobacco. An interrupted time series analysis estimated within-city changes associated with the policy's effective and enforcement dates, separately by product category for San Francisco and comparison cities, San Jose and San Diego. RESULTS: Predicted average weekly flavoured tobacco sales decreased by 96% from before the policy to after enforcement (p<0.05), and to very low levels across all products, including cigars with concept-flavour names (eg, Jazz). Average weekly flavoured tobacco sales did not change in San Jose and decreased by 10% in San Diego (p<0.05). Total tobacco sales decreased by 25% in San Francisco, 8% in San Jose and 17% in San Diego (each, p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: San Francisco's comprehensive restriction virtually eliminated flavoured tobacco sales and decreased total tobacco sales in mainstream retailers. Unlike other US flavoured tobacco policy evaluations, there was no evidence of substitution to concept-flavour named products. Results may be attributed to San Francisco Department of Health's self-education and rigorous retailer education, as well as the law's rebuttable presumption of a product as flavoured based on manufacturer communication.