Developing an intelligent prediction system for successful aging based on artificial neural networks.

Background: Due to the growing number of disabilities in elderly, Attention to this period of life is essential to be considered. Few studies focused on the physical, mental, disabilities, and disorders affecting the quality of life in elderly people. SA1 is related to various factors influencing the elderly's life. So, the objective of the current study is to build an intelligent system for SA prediction through ANN2 algorithms to investigate better all factors affecting the elderly life and promote them. Methods: This study was performed on 1156 SA and non-SA cases. We applied statistical feature reduction method to obtain the best factors predicting the SA. Two models of ANNs with 5, 10, 15, and 20 neurons in hidden layers were used for model construction. Finally, the best ANN configuration was obtained for predicting the SA using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and cross-entropy loss function. Results: The study showed that 25 factors correlated with SA at the statistical level of P < 0.05. Assessing all ANN structures resulted in FF-BP3 algorithm having the configuration of 25-15-1 with accuracy-train of 0.92, accuracy-test of 0.86, and accuracy-validation of 0.87 gaining the best performance over other ANN algorithms. Conclusions: Developing the CDSS for predicting SA has crucial role to effectively inform geriatrics and health care policymakers decision making.

Screening ovarian cancer by using risk factors: machine learning assists.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Ovarian cancer (OC) is a prevalent and aggressive malignancy that poses a significant public health challenge. The lack of preventive strategies for OC increases morbidity, mortality, and other negative consequences. Screening OC through risk prediction could be leveraged as a powerful strategy for preventive purposes that have not received much attention. So, this study aimed to leverage machine learning approaches as predictive assistance solutions to screen high-risk groups of OC and achieve practical preventive purposes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: As this study is data-driven and retrospective in nature, we leveraged 1516 suspicious OC women data from one concentrated database belonging to six clinical settings in Sari City from 2015 to 2019. Six machine learning (ML) algorithms, including XG-Boost, Random Forest (RF), J-48, support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), and artificial neural network (ANN) were leveraged to construct prediction models for OC. To choose the best model for predicting OC, we compared various prediction models built using the area under the receiver characteristic operator curve (AU-ROC). RESULTS: Current experimental results revealed that the XG-Boost with AU-ROC = 0.93 (0.95 CI = [0.91-0.95]) was recognized as the best-performing model for predicting OC. CONCLUSIONS: ML approaches possess significant predictive efficiency and interoperability to achieve powerful preventive strategies leveraging OC screening high-risk groups.

Design of risk prediction model for esophageal cancer based on machine learning approach.

Background and aim: Esophageal cancer (EC) is a highly prevalent and progressive disease. Early prediction of EC risk in the population is crucial in preventing this disease and enhancing the overall health of individuals. So far, few studies have been conducted on predicting the EC risk based on the prediction models, and most of them focused on statistical methods. The ML approach obtained efficient predictive insights into the clinical domain. Therefore, this study aims to develop a risk prediction model for EC based on risk factors and by leveraging the ML approach to stratify the high-risk EC people and obtain efficient preventive purposes at the community level. Material and methods: The current retrospective study was performed from 2018 to 2022 in Sari City based on 3256 EC and non-EC cases. The six selected algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XG-Boost), Bagging, K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), were used to develop the risk prediction model for EC and achieve the preventive purposes. Results: Comparing the performance efficiency of algorithms revealed that the XG-Boost model gained the best predictability for EC risk with AU-ROC = 0.92 and AU-ROC-test = 0.889 for internal and validation states, respectively. Based on the XG-Boost, the factors, including sex, drinking hot liquids, fruit consumption, achalasia, and vegetable consumption, were considered the five top predictors of EC risk. Conclusion: This study showed that the XG-Boost could provide insight into the early prediction of the EC risk for people and clinical providers to stratify the high-risk group of EC and achieve preventive measures based on modifying the risk factors associated with EC and other clinical solutions.

Prediction of five-year survival among esophageal cancer patients using machine learning.

Background and aim: Considering the silent progression of esophageal cancer, the survival prediction of this disease is crucial in enhancing the quality of life of these patients globally. So far, no prediction solution has been introduced for the survival of EC in Iran based on the machine learning approach. So, this study aims to develop a prediction model for the five-year survival of EC based on the ML approach to promote clinical outcomes and various treatment and preventive plans. Material and methods: In this retrospective study, we investigated the 1656 cases of survived and non-survived EC patients belonging to Imam Khomeini Hospital in Sari City from 2013 to 2020. The multivariable regression analysis was used to select the best predictors of five-year survival. We leveraged random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, Bayesian networks, J-48 decision tree, and K-nearest neighborhood to develop the prediction models. To get the best model for predicting the five-year survival of EC, we compared them using the area under the receiver operator characteristics. Results: The age at diagnosis, body mass index, smoking, obstruction, dysphagia, weight loss, lymphadenopathy, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, family history of EC, tumor stage, type of appearance, histological type, grade of differentiation, tumor location, tumor size, lymphatic invasion, vascular invasion, and platelet albumin ratio were considered as the best predictors associated with the five-year survival of EC based on the regression analysis. In this respect, the random forest with the area under the receiver operator characteristics of 0.95 was identified as a superior model. Conclusion: The experimental results of the current study showed that the random forest could have a significant role in enhancing the quality of care in EC patients by increasing the effectiveness of follow-up and treatment measures introduced by care providers.

Which are best for successful aging prediction? Bagging, boosting, or simple machine learning algorithms?

BACKGROUND: The worldwide society is currently facing an epidemiological shift due to the significant improvement in life expectancy and increase in the elderly population. This shift requires the public and scientific community to highlight successful aging (SA), as an indicator representing the quality of elderly people's health. SA is a subjective, complex, and multidimensional concept; thus, its meaning or measuring is a difficult task. This study seeks to identify the most affecting factors on SA and fed them as input variables for constructing predictive models using machine learning (ML) algorithms. METHODS: Data from 1465 adults aged ≥ 60 years who were referred to health centers in Abadan city (Iran) between 2021 and 2022 were collected by interview. First, binary logistic regression (BLR) was used to identify the main factors influencing SA. Second, eight ML algorithms, including adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), bootstrap aggregating (Bagging), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XG-Boost), random forest (RF), J-48, multilayered perceptron (MLP), Naïve Bayes (NB), and support vector machine (SVM), were trained to predict SA. Finally, their performance was evaluated using metrics derived from the confusion matrix to determine the best model. RESULTS: The experimental results showed that 44 factors had a meaningful relationship with SA as the output class. In total, the RF algorithm with sensitivity = 0.95 ± 0.01, specificity = 0.94 ± 0.01, accuracy = 0.94 ± 0.005, and F-score = 0.94 ± 0.003 yielded the best performance for predicting SA. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to other selected ML methods, the effectiveness of the RF as a bagging algorithm in predicting SA was significantly better. Our developed prediction models can provide, gerontologists, geriatric nursing, healthcare administrators, and policymakers with a reliable and responsive tool to improve elderly outcomes.

Factors influencing quality of life among the elderly: An approach using logistic regression.

BACKGROUND: Improving the physical, psychological, and social factors in the elderly significantly increases the QoL1 among them. This study aims to identify the crucial factors for predicting QoL among the elderly using statistical methods. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this study, 980 samples related to the elderly with favorable and unfavorable QoL were investigated. The elderly's QoL was investigated using a qualitative and self-assessment questionnaire that measured the QoL among them by five Likert spectrum and independent factors. The Chi-square test and eta coefficient were used to determine the relationship between each predicting factor of the elderly's QoL in SPSS V 25 software. Finally, we used the Enter and Forward LR methods to determine the correlation of influential factors in the presence of other variables. RESULTS: The study showed that 20 variables gained a significant relationship with the quality of life of the elderly at P < 0.05. The study results showed that the degree of dependence (P = 0.03), diabetes mellitus (P = 0.03), formal and informal social relationships (P = 0.01 and P = 0.02), ability to play an emotional role (P = 0.03), physical performance (P = 0.01), heart diseases and arterial blood pressure (P = 0.02), and cancer (P = 0.01) have favorable predictive power in predicting the QoL among the elderly. CONCLUSION: Attempts to identify and modify the important factors affecting the elderly's QoL have a significant role in improving the QoL and life satisfaction in this age group people. This study showed that the statistical methods have a pleasant capability to discover the factors associated with the elderly's QoL with high performance in this regard.

Developing a prediction model for successful aging among the elderly using machine learning algorithms.

Objective: The aging phenomenon has an increasing trend worldwide which caused the emergence of the successful aging (SA)1 concept. It is believed that the SA prediction model can increase the quality of life (QoL)2 in the elderly by decreasing physical and mental problems and enhancing their social participation. Most previous studies noted that physical and mental disorders affected the QoL in the elderly but didn't pay much attention to the social factors in this respect. Our study aimed to build a prediction model for SA based on the physical, mental, and specially more social factors affecting SA. Methods: The 975 cases related to SA and non-SA of the elderly were investigated in this study. We used the univariate analysis to determine the best factors affecting the SA. AB3, XG-Boost J-48, RF4, artificial neural network5, support vector machine6, and NB7 algorithms were used for building the prediction models. To get the best model predicting the SA, we compared them using positive predictive value (PPV)8, negative predictive value (NPV)9, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F-measure, and area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC). Results: Comparing the machine learning10 model's performance showed that the random forest (RF) model with PPV = 90.96%, NPV = 99.21%, sensitivity = 97.48%, specificity = 97.14%, accuracy = 97.05%, F-score = 97.31%, AUC = 0.975 is the best model for predicting the SA. Conclusions: Using prediction models can increase the QoL in the elderly and consequently reduce the economic cost for people and societies. The RF can be considered an optimal model for predicting SA in the elderly.

Predicting intubation risk among COVID-19 hospitalized patients using artificial neural networks.

BACKGROUND: Accurately predicting the intubation risk in COVID-19 patients at the admission time is critical to optimal use of limited hospital resources, providing customized and evidence-based treatments, and improving the quality of delivered medical care services. This study aimed to design a statistical algorithm to select the best features influencing intubation prediction in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalized patients. Then, using selected features, multiple artificial neural network (ANN) configurations were developed to predict intubation risk. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this retrospective single-center study, a dataset containing 482 COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized between February 9, 2020 and July 20, 2021 was used. First, the Phi correlation coefficient method was performed for selecting the most important features affecting COVID-19 patients' intubation. Then, the different configurations of ANN were developed. Finally, the performance of ANN configurations was assessed using several evaluation metrics, and the best structure was determined for predicting intubation requirements among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: The ANN models were developed based on 18 validated features. The results indicated that the best performance belongs to the 18-20-1 ANN configuration with positive predictive value (PPV) = 0.907, negative predictive value (NPV) = 0.941, sensitivity = 0.898, specificity = 0.951, and area under curve (AUC) = 0.906. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANN models for timely and reliable prediction of intubation risk in COVID-19 hospitalized patients. Our models can inform clinicians and those involved in policymaking and decision making for prioritizing restricted mechanical ventilation and other related resources for critically COVID-19 patients.

Clinical decision support system for quality of life among the elderly: an approach using artificial neural network.

BACKGROUND: Due to advancements in medicine and the elderly population's growth with various disabilities, attention to QoL among this age group is crucial. Early prediction of the QoL among the elderly by multiple care providers leads to decreased physical and mental disorders and increased social and environmental participation among them by considering all factors affecting it. So far, it is not designed the prediction system for QoL in this regard. Therefore, this study aimed to develop the CDSS based on ANN as an ML technique by considering the physical, psychiatric, and social factors. METHODS: In this developmental and applied study, we investigated the 980 cases associated with pleasant and unpleasant elderlies QoL cases. We used the BLR and simple correlation coefficient methods to attain the essential factors affecting the QoL among the elderly. Then three BP configurations, including CF-BP, FF-BP, and E-BP, were compared to get the best model for predicting the QoL. RESULTS: Based on the BLR, the 13 factors were considered the best factors affecting the elderly's QoL at P < 0.05. Comparing all ANN configurations showed that the CF-BP with the 13-16-1 structure with sensitivity = 0.95, specificity = 0.97, accuracy = 0.96, F-Score = 0.96, PPV = 0.95, and NPV = 0.97 gained the best performance for QoL among the elderly. CONCLUSION: The results of this study showed that the designed CDSS based on the CFBP could be considered an efficient tool for increasing the QoL among the elderly.

Internet of Things (IoT) Adoption Model for Early Identification and Monitoring of COVID-19 Cases: A Systematic Review.

Background: The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a mysterious and highly infectious disease that was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. The virus poses a great threat to global health and the economy. Currently, in the absence of effective treatment or vaccine, leveraging advanced digital technologies is of great importance. In this respect, the Internet of Things (IoT) is useful for smart monitoring and tracing of COVID-19. Therefore, in this study, we have reviewed the literature available on the IoT-enabled solutions to tackle the current COVID-19 outbreak. Methods: This systematic literature review was conducted using an electronic search of articles in the PubMed, Google Scholar, ProQuest, Scopus, Science Direct, and Web of Science databases to formulate a complete view of the IoT-enabled solutions to monitoring and tracing of COVID-19 according to the FITT (Fit between Individual, Task, and Technology) model. Results: In the literature review, 28 articles were identified as eligible for analysis. This review provides an overview of technological adoption of IoT in COVID-19 to identify significant users, either primary or secondary, required technologies including technical platform, exchange, processing, storage and added-value technologies, and system tasks or applications at "on-body," "in-clinic/hospital," and even "in-community" levels. Conclusions: The use of IoT along with advanced intelligence and computing technologies for ubiquitous monitoring and tracking of patients in quarantine has made it a critical aspect in fighting the spread of the current COVID-19 and even future pandemics.

Predicting the Need for Intubation among COVID-19 Patients Using Machine Learning Algorithms: A Single-Center Study.

Background: Owing to the shortage of ventilators, there is a crucial demand for an objective and accurate prognosis for 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) critical patients, which may necessitate a mechanical ventilator (MV). This study aimed to construct a predictive model using machine learning (ML) algorithms for frontline clinicians to better triage endangered patients and priorities who would need MV. Methods: In this retrospective single-center study, the data of 482 COVID-19 patients from February 9, 2020, to December 20, 2020, were analyzed by several ML algorithms including, multi-layer perception (MLP), logistic regression (LR), J-48 decision tree, and Naïve Bayes (NB). First, the most important clinical variables were identified using the Chi-square test at P < 0.01. Then, by comparing the ML algorithms' performance using some evaluation criteria, including TP-Rate, FP-Rate, precision, recall, F-Score, MCC, and Kappa, the best performing one was identified. Results: Predictive models were trained using 15 validated features, including cough, contusion, oxygen therapy, dyspnea, loss of taste, rhinorrhea, blood pressure, absolute lymphocyte count, pleural fluid, activated partial thromboplastin time, blood glucose, white cell count, cardiac diseases, length of hospitalization, and other underline diseases. The results indicated the J-48 with F-score = 0.868 and AUC = 0.892 yielded the best performance for predicting intubation requirement. Conclusion: ML algorithms are potentials to improve traditional clinical criteria to forecast the necessity for intubation in COVID-19 in-hospital patients. Such ML-based prediction models may help physicians with optimizing the timing of intubation, better sharing of MV resources and personnel, and increase patient clinical status.

Using logistic regression to develop a diagnostic model for COVID-19: A single-center study.

BACKGROUND: The main manifestations of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) are similar to the many other respiratory diseases. In addition, the existence of numerous uncertainties in the prognosis of this condition has multiplied the need to establish a valid and accurate prediction model. This study aimed to develop a diagnostic model based on logistic regression to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of COVID-19. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A standardized diagnostic model was developed on data of 400 patients who were referred to Ayatollah Talleghani Hospital, Abadan, Iran, for the COVID-19 diagnosis. We used the Chi-square correlation coefficient for feature selection, and logistic regression in SPSS V25 software to model the relationship between each of the clinical features. Potentially diagnostic determinants extracted from the patient's history, physical examination, and laboratory and imaging testing were entered in a logistic regression analysis. The discriminative ability of the model was expressed as sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the curve, respectively. RESULTS: After determining the correlation of each diagnostic regressor with COVID-19 using the Chi-square method, the 15 important regressors were obtained at the level of P < 0.05. The experimental results demonstrated that the binary logistic regression model yielded specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of 97.3%, 98.8%, and 98.2%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The destructive effects of the COVID-19 outbreak and the shortage of healthcare resources in fighting against this pandemic require increasing attention to using the Clinical Decision Support Systems equipped with supervised learning classification algorithms such as logistic regression.

Design of an artificial neural network to predict mortality among COVID-19 patients.

Introduction: The fast pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has challenged clinicians with many uncertainties and ambiguities regarding disease outcomes and complications. To deal with these uncertainties, our study aimed to develop and evaluate several artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the mortality risk in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Material and methods: The data of 1710 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were used in this retrospective and developmental study. First, a Chi-square test (P < 0.05), Eta coefficient (η > 0.4), and binary logistics regression (BLR) analysis were performed to determine the factors affecting COVID-19 mortality. Then, using the selected variables, two types of feed-forward (FF) models, including the back-propagation (BP) and distributed time delay (DTD) were trained. The models' performance was assessed using mean squared error (MSE), error histogram (EH), and area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) metrics. Results: After applying the univariate and multivariate analysis, 13 variables were selected as important features in predicting COVID-19 mortality at P < 0.05. A comparison of the two ANN architectures using the MSE showed that the BP-ANN (validation error: 0.067, most of the classified samples having 0.049 and 0.05 error rates, and AUC-ROC: 0.888) was the best model. Conclusions: Our findings show the acceptable performance of ANN for predicting the risk of mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Application of the developed ANN-based CDSS in a real clinical environment will improve patient safety and reduce disease severity and mortality.

Predicting hospital readmission risk in patients with COVID-19: A machine learning approach.

Introduction: The Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic stunned the health systems with severe scarcities in hospital resources. In this critical situation, decreasing COVID-19 readmissions could potentially sustain hospital capacity. This study aimed to select the most affecting features of COVID-19 readmission and compare the capability of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict COVID-19 readmission based on the selected features. Material and methods: The data of 5791 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were retrospectively recruited from a hospital registry system. The LASSO feature selection algorithm was used to select the most important features related to COVID-19 readmission. HistGradientBoosting classifier (HGB), Bagging classifier, Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine ((SVM) kernel = linear), SVM (kernel = RBF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifiers were used for prediction. We evaluated the performance of ML algorithms with a 10-fold cross-validation method using six performance evaluation metrics. Results: Out of the 42 features, 14 were identified as the most relevant predictors. The XGBoost classifier outperformed the other six ML models with an average accuracy of 91.7%, specificity of 91.3%, the sensitivity of 91.6%, F-measure of 91.8%, and AUC of 0.91%. Conclusion: The experimental results prove that ML models can satisfactorily predict COVID-19 readmission. Besides considering the risk factors prioritized in this work, categorizing cases with a high risk of reinfection can make the patient triaging procedure and hospital resource utilization more effective.

Using decision tree algorithms for estimating ICU admission of COVID-19 patients.

Introduction: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has overwhelmed many healthcare systems worldwide and put them at the edge of collapsing. As intensive care unit (ICU) capacities are limited, deciding on the proper allocation of required resources is crucial. This study aimed to develop and compare models for early predicting ICU admission in COVID-19 patients at the point of hospital admission. Materials and methods: Using a single-center registry, we studied the records of 512 COVID-19 patients. First, the most important variables were identified using Chi-square test (at p < 0.01) and logistic regression (with odds ratio at P < 0.05). Second, we trained seven decision tree (DT) algorithms (decision stump (DS), Hoeffding tree (HT), LMT, J-48, random forest (RF), random tree (RT) and REP-Tree) using the selected variables. Finally, the models' performance was evaluated. Furthermore, we used an external dataset to validate the prediction models. Results: Using the Chi-square test, 20 important variables were identified. Then, 12 variables were selected for model construction using logistic regression. Comparing the DT methods demonstrated that J-48 (F-score of 0.816 and AUC of 0.845) had the best performance. Also, the J-48 (F-score = 80.9% and AUC = 0.822) gained the best performance in generalizability using the external dataset. Conclusions: The study results demonstrated that DT algorithms can be used to predict ICU admission requirements in COVID-19 patients based on the first time of admission data. Implementing such models has the potential to inform clinicians and managers to adopt the best policy and get prepare during the COVID-19 time-sensitive and resource-constrained situation.

Developing an artificial neural network for detecting COVID-19 disease.

BACKGROUND: From December 2019, atypical pneumonia termed COVID-19 has been increasing exponentially across the world. It poses a great threat and challenge to world health and the economy. Medical specialists face uncertainty in making decisions based on their judgment for COVID-19. Thus, this study aimed to establish an intelligent model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) for diagnosing COVID-19. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a single-center registry, we studied the records of 250 confirmed COVID-19 and 150 negative cases from February 9, 2020, to October 20, 2020. The correlation coefficient technique was used to determine the most significant variables of the ANN model. The variables at P < 0.05 were used for model construction. We applied the back-propagation technique for training a neural network on the dataset. After comparing different neural network configurations, the best configuration of ANN was acquired, then its strength has been evaluated. RESULTS: After the feature selection process, a total of 18 variables were determined as the most relevant predictors for developing the ANN models. The results indicated that two nested loops' architecture of 9-10-15-2 (10 and 15 neurons used in layer 1 and layer 2, respectively) with the area under the curve of 0.982, the sensitivity of 96.4%, specificity of 90.6%, and accuracy of 94% was introduced as the best configuration model for COVID-19 diagnosis. CONCLUSION: The proposed ANN-based clinical decision support system could be considered as a suitable computational technique for the frontline practitioner in early detection, effective intervention, and possibly a reduction of mortality in patients with COVID-19.

Developing a clinical decision support system based on the fuzzy logic and decision tree to predict colorectal cancer.

Background: Colorectal Cancer (CRC) is the most prevalent digestive system- related cancer and has become one of the deadliest diseases worldwide. Given the poor prognosis of CRC, it is of great importance to make a more accurate prediction of this disease. Early CRC detection using computational technologies can significantly improve the overall survival possibility of patients. Hence this study was aimed to develop a fuzzy logic-based clinical decision support system (FL-based CDSS) for the detection of CRC patients. Methods: This study was conducted in 2020 using the data related to CRC and non-CRC patients, which included the 1162 cases in the Masoud internal clinic, Tehran, Iran. The chi-square method was used to determine the most important risk factors in predicting CRC. Furthermore, the C4.5 decision tree was used to extract the rules. Finally, the FL-based CDSS was designed in a MATLAB environment and its performance was evaluated by a confusion matrix. Results: Eleven features were selected as the most important factors. After fuzzification of the qualitative variables and evaluation of the decision support system (DSS) using the confusion matrix, the accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of the system was yielded 0.96, 0.97, and 0.96, respectively. Conclusion: We concluded that developing the CDSS in this field can provide an earlier diagnosis of CRC, leading to a timely treatment, which could decrease the CRC mortality rate in the community.

Performance evaluation of selected decision tree algorithms for COVID-19 diagnosis using routine clinical data.

Background: The novel 2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) poses a great threat to global public health and the economy. The earlier detection of COVID-19 is the key to its treatment and mitigating the transmission of the virus. Given that Machine Learning (ML) could be potentially useful in COVID-19 identification, we compared 7 decision tree (DT) algorithms to select the best clinical diagnostic model. Methods: A hospital-based retrospective dataset was used to train the selected DT algorithms. The performance of DT models was measured using performance criteria, such as accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and precision-recall curves (PRC). Finally, the best decision model was obtained based on comparing the mentioned performance criteria. Results: Based on the Gini Index (GI) scoring model, 13 diagnostic criteria, including the lung lesion existence (GI= 0217), fever (GI= 0.205), history of contact with suspected people (GI= 0.188), O2 saturation rate in the blood (GI= 0.181), rhinorrhea (GI= 0.177), dyspnea (GI = 0.177), cough (GI = 0.159), history of taking the immunosuppressive drug (GI= 0.145), history of respiratory failure (ARDS) (GI= 0.141), lung lesion situation (GI= 0.133) and appearance (GI= 0.126), diarrhea (GI= 0.112), and nausea and vomiting (GI = 0.092) have been obtained as the most important criteria in diagnosing COVID-19. The results indicated that the J-48, with the accuracy= 0.85, F-Score= 0.85, ROC= 0.926, and PRC= 0.93, had the best performance for diagnosing COVID-19. Conclusion: According to the empirical results, it is promising to implement J-48 in health care settings to increase the accuracy and speed of COVID-19 diagnosis.

Performance analysis of data mining algorithms for diagnosing COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of atypical pneumonia termed COVID-19 has widely spread all over the world since the beginning of 2020. In this regard, designing a prediction system for the early detection of COVID-19 is a critical issue in mitigating virus spread. In this study, we have applied selected machine learning techniques to select the best predictive models based on their performance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data of 435 suspicious cases with COVID-19 which were recorded from the Imam Khomeini Hospital database between May 9, 2020 and December 20, 2020, have been taken into consideration. The Chi-square method was used to determine the most important features in diagnosing the COVID-19; eight selected data mining algorithms including multilayer perceptron (MLP), J-48, Bayesian Net (Bayes Net), logistic regression, K-star, random forest, Ada-boost, and sequential minimal optimization (SMO) were applied in data mining. Finally, the most appropriate diagnostic model for COVID-19 was obtained based on comparing the performance of the selected algorithms. RESULTS: As the result of using the Chi-square method, 21 variables were identified as the most important diagnostic criteria in COVID-19. The results of evaluating the eight selected data mining algorithms showed that the J-48 with true-positive rate = 0.85, false-positive rate = 0.173, precision = 0.85, recall = 0.85, F-score = 0.85, Matthews Correlation Coefficient = 0.68, and area under the receiver operator characteristics = 0.68, respectively, had the higher performance than the other algorithms. CONCLUSION: The results of evaluating the performance criteria showed that the J-48 can be considered as a suitable computational prediction model for diagnosing COVID-19 disease.