RESUMEN
On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actual have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding. Rather, if intentions record a survey respondent's most likely predicted number of children, then the average of these intentions does not necessarily equal average actual fertility, even if intentions are formed using rational expectations.
RESUMEN
This paper finds that the Great Chinese Famine of 1959-1961 reduced lifetime educational attainment by up to 3.8 years for people who lived in areas most severely hit by the famine. Using geographical variation in famine intensity, information about place of residence during the famine, and educational attainment recorded in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, the paper demonstrates that the decline in educational attainment was particularly sharp for women. This decline interrupted substantial gains in schooling achieved in China during the middle part of the twentieth century.
RESUMEN
During the apartheid era, all South Africans were formally classified as white, African, colored, or Asian. Starting in 1970, the government directly provided free family planning services to residents of townships and white-owned farms. Relative to African residents of other regions of the country, the share of African women that gave birth in these townships and white-owned farms declined by nearly one-third during the 1970s. Deferral of childbearing into the 1980s partially explains the decline, but lifetime fertility fell by one child per woman.
RESUMEN
This paper introduces a model-based approach for measuring heterogeneity in sex preferences using birth history records. The approach identifies the combinations of preferences over the sex and number of children that best explain observed childbearing. Empirical estimates indicate that a majority of parents in Africa, Asia, and the Americas consider the sex of children when making childbearing decisions. Many parents prefer sons and many prefer daughters. Comparisons with reported preferences suggest that survey respondents tend to underreport the degree to which they prefer sons or daughters. Estimates indicate that, although sex preferences are widespread, they have little effect on aggregate fertility levels.
RESUMEN
This paper provides new evidence that family planning programs are associated with a decrease in the share of children and adults living in poverty. Our research design exploits the county roll-out of U.S. family planning programs in the late 1960s and early 1970s and examines their relationship with poverty rates in the short and longer-term in public census data. We find that cohorts born after federal family planning programs began were less likely to live in poverty in childhood and that these same cohorts were less likely to live in poverty as adults.
