Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year.

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species' life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

Molecular phylogeny of Lymantriinae (Lepidoptera, Noctuoidea, Erebidae) inferred from eight gene regions.

To understand the evolutionary history of Lymantriinae and test the present higher-level classification, we performed the first broad-scale molecular phylogenetic analysis of the subfamily, based on 154 exemplars representing all recognized tribes and drawn from all major biogeographical regions. We used two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and 16S ribosomal RNA) and six nuclear genes (elongation factor-1α, carbamoylphosphate synthase domain protein, ribosomal protein S5, cytosolic malate dehydrogenase, glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase and wingless). Data matrices (in total 5424 bp) were analysed by parsimony and model-based evolutionary methods (maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference). Based on the results of the analyses, we present a new phylogenetic classification for Lymantriinae composed of seven well-supported tribes, two of which are proposed here as new: Arctornithini, Leucomini, Lymantriini, Orgyiini, Nygmiini, Daplasini trib. nov. and Locharnini trib. nov. We discuss the internal structure of each of these tribes and address some of the more complex problems with the genus-level classification, particularly within Orgyiini and Nygmiini.