Characteristics of recurrent fractures.

The present study, drawn from a sample of the Icelandic population, quantified high immediate risk and utility loss of subsequent fracture after a sentinel fracture (at the hip, spine, distal forearm and humerus) that attenuated with time. INTRODUCTION: The risk of a subsequent osteoporotic fracture is particularly acute immediately after an index fracture and wanes progressively with time. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk and utility consequences of subsequent fracture after a sentinel fracture (at the hip, spine, distal forearm and humerus) with an emphasis on the time course of recurrent fracture. METHODS: The Reykjavik Study fracture registration, drawn from a sample of the Icelandic population (n = 18,872), recorded all fractures of the participants from their entry into the study until December 31, 2012. Medical records for the participants were manually examined and verified. First sentinel fractures were identified. Subsequent fractures, deaths, 10-year probability of fracture and cumulative disutility using multipliers derived from the International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic fractures Study (ICUROS) were examined as a function of time after fracture, age and sex. RESULTS: Over 10 years, subsequent fractures were sustained in 28% of 1498 individuals with a sentinel hip fracture. For other sentinel fractures, the proportion ranged from 35 to 38%. After each sentinel fracture, the risk of subsequent fracture was highest in the immediate post fracture interval and decreased markedly with time. Thus, amongst individuals who sustained a recurrent fracture, 31-45% did so within 1 year of the sentinel fracture. Hazard ratios for fracture recurrence (population relative risks) were accordingly highest immediately after the sentinel fracture (2.6-5.3, depending on the site of fracture) and fell progressively over 10 years (1.5-2.2). Population relative risks also decreased progressively with age. The utility loss during the first 10 years after a sentinel fracture varied by age (less with age) and sex (greater in women). In women at the age of 70 years, the mean utility loss due to fractures in the whole cohort was 0.081 whereas this was 12-fold greater in women with a sentinel hip fracture, and was increased 15-fold for spine fracture, 4-fold for forearm fracture and 8-fold for humeral fracture. CONCLUSION: High fracture risks and utility loss immediately after fracture suggest that treatment given as soon as possible after fracture would avoid a higher number of new fractures compared with treatment given later. This provides the rationale for very early intervention immediately after a sentinel fracture.

Low risk for hip fracture and high risk for hip arthroplasty due to osteoarthritis among Swedish farmers.

We aimed to study the risk of hip fracture and risk of hip arthroplasty among farmers in Sweden. Our results indicate that farming, representing an occupation with high physical activity, in men is associated with a lower risk of hip fracture but an increased risk of hip arthroplasty. INTRODUCTION: The risks of hip fracture and hip arthroplasty are influenced by factors including socioeconomic status, education, urbanization, latitude of residence, and physical activity. Farming is an occupation encompassing rural living and high level of physical activity. Therefore, we aimed to study the risk of hip fracture and risk of hip arthroplasty among farmers in Sweden. METHODS: We studied the risk of hip fracture, and hip arthroplasty due to primary osteoarthritis, in all men and women aged 35 years or more in Sweden between 1987 and 2002. Documented occupations were available in 3.5 million individuals, of whom 97,136 were farmers. The effects of age, sex, income, education, location of residence, and occupation on risk of hip fracture or hip arthroplasty were examined using a modification of Poisson regression. RESULTS: A total of 4027 farmers and 93,109 individuals with other occupations sustained a hip fracture, while 5349 farmers and 63,473 others underwent a hip arthroplasty. Risk of hip fracture was higher with greater age, lower income, lower education, higher latitude, and urban area for all men and women. Compared to all other occupations, male farmers had a 20% lower age-adjusted risk of hip fracture (hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95%CI 0.77-0.84), an effect that was not seen in female farmers (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.91-1.01). Both male and female farmers had a higher age-adjusted risk for hip arthroplasty. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that farming, representing an occupation with high physical activity, in men is associated with a lower risk of hip fracture but an increased risk of hip arthroplasty.

FRAX for fracture prediction shorter and longer than 10 years: the Manitoba BMD registry.

In a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada, FRAX predicted incident MOF and hip fracture from 1 to 15 years following baseline assessment. A simple linear rescaling of FRAX outputs seems useful for predicting both short- and long-term fracture risk in this population. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture. We examined FRAX predictions over intervals shorter and longer than 10 years. METHODS: Using a population-based clinical registry for Manitoba, Canada, we identified 62,275 women and 6455 men 40 years and older with baseline dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans and FRAX scores. Incident MOF and hip fracture were assessed up to 15 years from population-based data. We assessed agreement between estimated fracture probability from 1 to 15 years using linearly rescaled FRAX scores and observed cumulative fracture probability. The gradient of risk for FRAX probability and incident fracture was examined overall and for 5-year intervals. RESULTS: FRAX predicted incident MOF and hip fracture for all time intervals. There was no attenuation in the gradient of risk for MOF even for years >10. Gradient of risk was slightly lower for hip fracture prediction in years >10 vs years <5, though HRs remained high. Linear agreement was seen in the relationships between observed vs predicted (rescaled) FRAX probabilities (R 2 0.95-1.00). Among women, there was near-perfect linearity in MOF predictions. Deviations from linearity, with a slightly higher observed than predicted MOF probability, were most evident in the first years following a fracture event and after 10 years for hip fracture prediction in women using FRAX with BMD. Simulations showed that results were robust to large differences in fracture rates and moderate differences in mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: FRAX predicts incident MOF and hip fracture up to 15 years and could be adapted to predict fracture over time periods shorter and longer term than 10 years in populations with fracture and mortality epidemiology similar to Canada.

Imminent risk of fracture after fracture.

The risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) after a first MOF is increased over the whole duration of follow-up, but the imminent risk is even higher. If the acute increment in risk in the few years following MOF is amenable to therapeutic intervention, then immediate short-term treatments may provide worthwhile clinical dividends in a very cost-effective manner. INTRODUCTION: A history of fracture is a strong risk factor for future fractures. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the predictive value of a past MOF for future MOF changed with time. METHODS: The study was based on a population-based cohort of 18,872 men and women born between 1907 and 1935. Fractures were documented over 510,265 person-years. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between the first MOF and the second. All associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline. RESULTS: Five thousand thirty-nine individuals sustained one or more MOFs, of whom 1919 experienced a second MOF. The risk of a second MOF after a first increased by 4% for each year of age (95% CI 1.02-1.06) and was 41% higher for women than men (95% CI 1.25-1.59). The risk of a second MOF was highest immediately after the first fracture and thereafter decreased with time though remained higher than the population risk throughout follow-up. For example, 1 year after the first MOF, the risk of a second fracture was 2.7 (2.4-3.0) fold higher than the population risk. After 10 years, this risk ratio was 1.4 (1.2-1.6). The effect was more marked with increasing age. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of MOF after a first MOF is increased over the whole follow-up, but the imminent risk is even higher. If the acute increment in risk in the few years following MOF is amenable to therapeutic intervention, then immediate short-term treatments may provide worthwhile clinical dividends in a very cost-effective manner, particularly in the elderly.

Increased risk of hip fracture among spouses-evidence of a homogamy effect.

Spouses tend to share habits and therefore have an increased risk of same diseases. We followed all married couples in Sweden, born 1902 to 1942, in hospital records from 1987 to 2002, and found that individuals whose spouse had a hip fracture had an increased risk of hip fracture. INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to determine whether spouses of hip fracture patients have an elevated risk of hip fracture. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of all couples married for at least 5 years in Sweden and born between 1902 and 1942 (n = 904,451) and all patients registered with a hip fracture (n = 218,285) in the National Inpatients Register in Sweden from 1987 to 2002. RESULTS: During the period 1987 to 2002 hip fractures occurred among spouses in 4212 married couples. The hazard ratio (HR) for hip fracture in a married woman following hip fracture in the husband was 1.11 (95 % confidence interval 1.07 to 1.16) compared to a woman whose husband did not have hip fracture. The corresponding HR for a married man was 1.20 (1.15 to 1.26) compared to a man whose wife did not have hip fracture. The risk was significantly elevated over the age range 60 to 90 years. The increased risk for hip fracture among spouses remained after adjustments for income, education, geographical latitude and urbanisation. In a common model with spouses and their siblings, the HR for spousal effect were 1.63 (1.01 to 2.64) and for sibling effect 2.18 (1.55 to 3.06) compared to married with spouse and sibling respectively without hip fracture. CONCLUSION: The novel finding of an increased risk for hip fracture among spouses provides evidence indicating that there is a homogamy effect due to common social and lifestyle factors but could also be due to assortative mating.

The T -786C, G894T, and Intron 4 VNTR (4a/b) Polymorphisms of the Endothelial Nitric Oxide Synthase Gene in Prostate Cancer Cases.

In previously conducted some studies it has been revealed that nitric oxide (NO) and nitric oxide synthase (NOS) system play a significant role in carcinogenesis. Nitric oxide (NO) is regulated by endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) enzyme which is one of the isoenzymes of NO synthase (NOS). In this study we have tried to come to a conclusion about whether eNOS gene T -786C, G894T and Intron 4 VNTR (4a/b) polymorphisms might be considered as a risk factor causing prostate cancer (PCa) or not. A total of 200 subjects were included in this research. 84 patients with PCa (mean age 70.0 ± 6.4) and 116 healthy controls (mean age 69.9 ± 7.5) were recruited in this case-control study. Genomic DNA was extracted using the QIAamp DNA Blood Mini Kit (QIAGEN GmbH, Maryland, USA), according to the manufacturer's guidelines. The T-786C, G894T and Intron 4 VNTR (4a/b) polymorphisms were amplified using polymerase chain reation (PCR), detected by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP). For T -786C polymorphism CC genotype [odds ratio (OR): 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15-0.78, P = 0.009)] and allele frequency (OR: 0.631, CI: 0.421-0.946, P = 0.026) is significant for control. In patients with PCa eNOS G894T polymorphism, both GT (OR: 0.069, CI: 0.027-0.174; P = 0.0001) and TT (OR: 0.040, CI: 0.013-0.123; P = = 0.0001) genotype distribution, and also T allele frequency (OR: 0.237, CI: 0.155-0.362, P = 0.0001) were considered significant statistically. While genotype distribution for the other polymorphism eNOS, intron 4 VNTR (4a/b), is insignificant statistically, "a" allele frequency was found out to be significant (OR: 2.223, CI: 1.311-3.769, P = 0.003). In this study we indicated that genotype and allele frequencies of eNOS T -786C and G894T polymorphisms are statistically significant in patients with PCa. eNOS T -786C and G894T polymorphisms may be associated with PCa susceptibility in the Turkish population. In contrast, intron 4 VNTR (4a/b) polymorphism may not be related to PCa susceptibility in these patients.

Direct comparison of FRAX(R) and a simplified fracture risk assessment tool in routine clinical practice: a registry-based cohort study.

UNLABELLED: FRAX(R) incrementally improved prediction of incident major osteoporotic fractures compared with the simplified Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool. INTRODUCTION: There is debate over the value of seemingly more complex fracture prediction tools over simpler fracture prediction tools. FRAX(R) and the simplified CAROC tool are both widely used in Canada for estimating 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures. We compared the performance of these tools for predicting fracture outcomes. METHODS: Using a bone densitometry registry for Manitoba, Canada, we identified 34,060 individuals age ≥50 years not receiving anti-osteoporosis therapy. Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX) and CAROC were used to classify 10-year fracture risk as low (<10 %), moderate (10-20 %) and high (>20 %). Net reclassification improvement (NRI) was used to quantify the performance of FRAX versus CAROC. RESULTS: During mean 9.8 years of follow-up, 3905 individuals sustained fractures. There were 10 (of 35 total) situations where observed fracture risk fell outside of the predicted range, and all 10 discordances favoured FRAX. NRI among incident fracture cases was not significantly changed, but there was a significant improvement in risk categorization for those who remained fracture-free (+1.7 %, P < 0.001) resulting in overall improvement (NRI overall +0.028, P < 0.001). Within nine pre-specified subgroups, there was no case of significant worsening in NRI when using FRAX instead of CAROC. In absolute terms, only 36 individuals would need to be assessed using FRAX instead of CAROC to yield an improvement in prediction (8 among individuals with prior fracture and 4 among those with prolonged glucocorticoid use). CONCLUSIONS: FRAX provides improvement in fracture risk prediction compared with the simplified CAROC tool in individuals referred for osteoporosis screening, supporting the use of FRAX as the international reference tool for fracture risk assessment.

FRAX predicts incident falls in elderly men: findings from MrOs Sweden.

UNLABELLED: Falls and fractures share several common risk factors. Although past falls is not included as an input variable in the FRAX calculator, we demonstrate that FRAX probability predicts risk of incident falls in the MrOs Sweden cohort. INTRODUCTION: Although not included in the FRAX® algorithm, it is possible that increased falls risk is partly dependent on other risk factors that are incorporated into FRAX. The aim of the present study was to determine whether fracture probability generated by FRAX might also predict risk of incident falls and the extent that a falls history would add value to FRAX. METHODS: We studied the relationship between FRAX probabilities and risk of falls in 1836 elderly men recruited to the MrOS study, a population-based prospective cohort of men from Sweden. Baseline data included falls history, clinical risk factors, bone mineral density (BMD) at femoral neck, and calculated FRAX probabilities. Incident falls were captured during an average of 1.8 years of follow-up. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between FRAX, other risk variables, and the time-to-event hazard function of falls. All associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline. RESULTS: At enrolment, 15.5 % of the men had fallen during the preceding 12 months (past falls) and 39 % experienced one or more falls during follow-up (incident falls). The risk of incident falls increased with increasing FRAX probabilities at baseline (hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.16; 95 % confidence interval (95%CI), 1.06 to 1.26). The association between incident falls and FRAX probability remained after adjustment for past falls (HR per SD, 1.12; 95%CI, 1.03 to 1.22). High compared with low baseline FRAX score (>15 vs <15 % probability of major osteoporotic fracture) was strongly predictive of increased falls risk (HR, 1.64; 95%CI, 1.36 to 1.97) and remained stable with time. Whereas past falls were a significant predictor of incident falls (HR, 2.75; 95%CI, 2.32 to 3.25), even after adjustment for FRAX, the hazard ratio decreased markedly with increasing follow-up time. CONCLUSIONS: Although falls are not included as an input variable, FRAX captures a component of risk for future falls and outperforms falls history with an extended follow-up time.

Body fat mass and the proportion of very large adipocytes in pregnant women are associated with gestational insulin resistance.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Pregnancy is accompanied by fat gain and insulin resistance. Changes in adipose tissue morphology and function during pregnancy and factors contributing to gestational insulin resistance are incompletely known. We sought to characterize adipose tissue in trimesters 1 and 3 (T1/T3) in normal weight (NW) and obese pregnant women, and identify adipose tissue-related factors associated with gestational insulin resistance. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Twenty-two NW and 11 obese women were recruited early in pregnancy for the Pregnancy Obesity Nutrition and Child Health study. Examinations and sampling of blood and abdominal adipose tissue were performed longitudinally in T1/T3 to determine fat mass (air-displacement plethysmography); insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, HOMA-IR); size, number and lipolytic activity of adipocytes; and adipokine release and density of immune cells and blood vessels in adipose tissue. RESULTS: Fat mass and HOMA-IR increased similarly between T1 and T3 in the groups; all remained normoglycemic. Adipocyte size increased in NW women. Adipocyte number was not influenced, but proportions of small and large adipocytes changed oppositely in the groups. Lipolytic activity and circulating adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein increased in both groups. Adiponectin release was reduced in NW women. Fat mass and the proportion of very large adipocytes were most strongly associated with T3 HOMA-IR by multivariable linear regression (R(2)=0.751, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: During pregnancy, adipose tissue morphology and function change comprehensively. NW women accumulated fat in existing adipocytes, accompanied by reduced adiponectin release. In comparison with the NW group, obese women had signs of adipocyte recruitment and maintained adiponectin levels. Body fat and large adipocytes may contribute significantly to gestational insulin resistance.

FRAX and fracture prediction without bone mineral density.

The major application of FRAX in osteoporosis is to direct pharmacological interventions to those at high risk of fracture. Whereas the efficacy of osteoporosis treatment, with the possible exception of alendronate, is largely independent of baseline bone mineral density (BMD), it remains a widely held perception that osteoporosis therapies are only effective in the presence of low BMD. Thus, the use of FRAX in the absence of BMD to identify individuals requiring therapy remains the subject of some debate and is the focus of this review. The clinical risk factors used in FRAX have high evidence-based validity to identify a risk responsive to intervention. The selection of high-risk individuals with FRAX, without knowledge of BMD, preferentially selects for low BMD and thus identifies a risk that is responsive to pharmacological intervention. The prediction of fractures with the use of clinical risk factors alone in FRAX is comparable to the use of BMD alone to predict fractures and is suitable, therefore, in the many countries where facilities for BMD testing are sparse. In countries where access to BMD is greater, FRAX can be used without BMD in the majority of cases and BMD tests reserved for those close to a probability-based intervention threshold. Thus concerns surrounding the use of FRAX in clinical practice without information on BMD are largely misplaced.

FRAX-based assessment and intervention thresholds--an exploration of thresholds in women aged 50 years and older in the UK.

UNLABELLED: Under current guidelines, based on prior fracture probability thresholds, inequalities in access to therapy arise especially at older ages (≥70 years) depending on the presence or absence of a prior fracture. An alternative threshold (a fixed threshold from the age of 70 years) reduces this disparity, increases treatment access and decreases the need for bone densitometry. INTRODUCTION: Several international guidelines set age-specific intervention thresholds at the 10-year probability of fracture equivalent to a woman of average BMI with a prior fracture. At older ages (≥70 years), women with prior fracture selected for treatment are at lower average absolute risk than those selected for treatment in the absence of prior fracture, prompting consideration of alternative thresholds in this age group. METHODS: Using a simulated population of 50,633 women aged 50-90 years in the UK, with a distribution of risk factors similar to that in the European FRAX derivation cohorts and a UK-matched age distribution, the current NOGG intervention and assessment thresholds were compared to one where the thresholds remained constant from 70 years upwards. RESULTS: Under current thresholds, 45.1% of women aged ≥70 years would be eligible for therapy, comprising 37.5% with prior fracture, 2.2% with high risk but no prior fracture and 5.4% selected for treatment after bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. Mean hip fracture probability was 11.3, 23.3 and 17.6%, respectively, in these groups. Under the alternative thresholds, the overall proportion of women treated increased from 45.1 to 52.9%, with 8.4% at high risk but no prior fracture and 7.0% selected for treatment after BMD measurement. In the latter group, the mean probability of hip fracture was identical to that observed in women with prior fracture (11.3%). The alternative threshold also reduced the need for BMD measurement, particularly at older ages (>80 years). CONCLUSIONS: The alternative thresholds equilibrate fracture risk, particularly hip fracture risk, in those with or without prior fracture selected for treatment and reduce BMD usage at older ages.

Efficacy of weekly teriparatide does not vary by baseline fracture probability calculated using FRAX.

UNLABELLED: The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of once-weekly teriparatide as a function of baseline fracture risk. Treatment with once-weekly teriparatide was associated with a statistically significant 79 % decrease in vertebral fractures, and in the cohort as a whole, efficacy was not related to baseline fracture risk. INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have suggested that the efficacy of some interventions may be greater in the segment of the population at highest fracture risk as assessed by the FRAX® algorithms. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the antifracture efficacy of weekly teriparatide was dependent on the magnitude of fracture risk. METHODS: Baseline fracture probabilities (using FRAX) were computed from the primary data of a phase 3 study (TOWER) of the effects of weekly teriparatide in 542 men and postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. The outcome variable comprised morphometric vertebral fractures. Interactions between fracture probability and efficacy were explored by Poisson regression. RESULTS: The 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (without BMD) ranged from 7.2 to 42.2 %. FRAX-based hip fracture probabilities ranged from 0.9 to 29.3 %. Treatment with teriparatide was associated with a 79 % (95 % CI 52-91 %) decrease in vertebral fractures assessed by semiquantitative morphometry. Relative risk reductions for the effect of teriparatide on the fracture outcome did not change significantly across the range of fracture probabilities (p = 0.28). In a subgroup analysis of 346 (64 %) participants who had FRAX probabilities calculated with the inclusion of BMD, there was a small but significant interaction (p = 0.028) between efficacy and baseline fracture probability such that high fracture probabilities were associated with lower efficacy. CONCLUSION: Weekly teriparatide significantly decreased the risk of morphometric vertebral fractures in men and postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Overall, the efficacy of teriparatide was not dependent on the level of fracture risk assessed by FRAX in the cohort as a whole.

FRAX and the effect of teriparatide on vertebral and non-vertebral fracture.

UNLABELLED: Daily teriparatide injections have been shown to reduce vertebral and non-vertebral fractures. Here, we demonstrate that the magnitude of fracture risk reduction is independent of baseline fracture probability assessed by FRAX. INTRODUCTION: Daily administration of 20 or 40 µg teriparatide has been shown to significantly decrease the risk of vertebral and non-vertebral fracture compared with placebo. The aim of the present study was to evaluate fracture risk assessed at baseline using the FRAX® tool and to determine the efficacy of teriparatide as a function of baseline fracture risk. METHODS: One thousand six hundred thirty-seven postmenopausal women in the pivotal phase three trial, randomly assigned to receive placebo (n = 544), teriparatide 20 µg per day (n = 541) or teriparatide 40 µg per day (n = 552), were studied. Baseline clinical risk factors were entered into country-specific FRAX models to compute the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures with or without input of femoral neck BMD. Because there was no difference in effect of 20 and 40 µg teriparatide daily on fracture occurrence, the two active groups were merged. The interaction between probability of a major fracture and treatment efficacy was examined by Poisson regression. RESULTS: The 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (with BMD) ranged from 2.2-67.2 %. Treatment with teriparatide was associated with a 37 % decrease in all non-vertebral fractures (95 % CI 10-56 %) and a 56 % decrease in low-energy non-vertebral fractures (95 % CI 24-75 %) compared with placebo. The risk of morphometric vertebral fractures decreased significantly by 66 % (95 % CI 50-77 %). Hazard ratios for the effect of teriparatide on the fracture outcome did not change significantly with increasing fracture probability (p > 0.30). Similar findings were noted for the interaction when BMD was excluded from the FRAX model, or when probability of hip fracture was used as the marker of baseline risk. CONCLUSION: We conclude that teriparatide significantly decreases the risk of non-vertebral and morphometric vertebral fractures in women by a similar extent, irrespective of baseline fracture probability.

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040.

UNLABELLED: The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040. METHODS: A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country. RESULTS: Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years. CONCLUSION: We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

Is the Swedish FRAX model appropriate for Swedish immigrants?

UNLABELLED: The incidence of hip fracture in Sweden is substantially lower in immigrants than in the population born in Sweden. Thus, the use of a FRAX® model in immigrants overestimates the risk of fracture, and the use of country of origin-specific models may be more appropriate. INTRODUCTION: Age-specific fracture and mortality rates vary between countries so that FRAX tools are country-specific. In the case of immigrants, it is not known whether the model for the original or the new country is most appropriate. The aim of this study was to compare the incidence of hip fractures in foreign-born and Swedish-born individuals residing in Sweden. METHODS: We studied the incidence of hip fracture in all men and women aged 50 years or more in Sweden between 1987 and 2002. The population comprised 2.8 million Swedish-born and 270,000 foreign-born individuals. RESULTS: Incident hip fractures occurred in 239,842 Swedish-born and 12,563 foreign-born individuals. The hip fracture incidence rose with age for both groups and was higher for women than men amongst both Swedish-born and foreign-born individuals. The hip fracture incidence for the Swedish-born cohort was approximately twice that of immigrants. For example, at the age of 70 years, the annual hip fracture incidence (per 100,000) was 450 (95 % CI 446-454) for a Swedish-born woman and 239 (95 % CI 223-257) for a foreign-born woman at the time of immigration. The hip fracture incidence rose slowly with time from immigration (0.6 % per annum, 95 % CI 0.5-0.8 %) but remained significantly lower than for Swedish-born individuals even after 40 years of residence. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of hip fracture in Sweden is substantially lower in immigrants than in the population native to Sweden. Although there was a small rise in age- and sex-specific incidence after immigration, the incidence remained markedly lower than that observed in Swedish-born individuals. Thus, the use of a FRAX model for Sweden will overestimate the risk of fracture for foreign-born individuals living in Sweden.

Predictive ability of heel quantitative ultrasound for incident fractures: an individual-level meta-analysis.

UNLABELLED: The relationship between bone quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and fracture risk was estimated in an individual level data meta-analysis of 9 prospective studies of 46,124 individuals and 3018 incident fractures. Low QUS is associated with an increase in fracture risk, including hip fracture. The association with osteoporotic fracture decreases with time. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate the association between parameters of QUS and risk of fracture. METHODS: In an individual-level analysis, we studied participants in nine prospective cohorts from Asia, Europe and North America. Heel broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA dB/MHz) and speed of sound (SOS m/s) were measured at baseline. Fractures during follow-up were collected by self-report and in some cohorts confirmed by radiography. An extension of Poisson regression was used to examine the gradient of risk (GR, hazard ratio per 1 SD decrease) between QUS and fracture risk adjusted for age and time since baseline in each cohort. Interactions between QUS and age and time since baseline were explored. RESULTS: Baseline measurements were available in 46,124 men and women, mean age 70 years (range 20-100). Three thousand and eighteen osteoporotic fractures (787 hip fractures) occurred during follow-up of 214,000 person-years. The summary GR for osteoporotic fracture was similar for both BUA (1.45, 95 % confidence intervals (CI) 1.40-1.51) and SOS (1.42, 95 % CI 1.36-1.47). For hip fracture, the respective GRs were 1.69 (95 % CI, 1.56-1.82) and 1.60 (95 % CI, 1.48-1.72). However, the GR was significantly higher for both fracture outcomes at lower baseline BUA and SOS (p < 0.001). The predictive value of QUS was the same for men and women and for all ages (p > 0.20), but the predictive value of both BUA and SOS for osteoporotic fracture decreased with time (p = 0.018 and p = 0.010, respectively). For example, the GR of BUA for osteoporotic fracture, adjusted for age, was 1.51 (95 % CI 1.42-1.61) at 1 year after baseline, but at 5 years, it was 1.36 (95 % CI 1.27-1.46). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that quantitative ultrasound is an independent predictor of fracture for men and women particularly at low QUS values.

Impact of femoral neck and lumbar spine BMD discordances on FRAX probabilities in women: a meta-analysis of international cohorts.

There are occasional marked discordances in BMD T-scores at the lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN). We investigated whether such discordances could contribute independently to fracture prediction using FRAX. We studied 21,158 women, average age 63 years, from 10 prospective cohorts with baseline FRAX variables as well as FN and LS BMD. Incident fractures were collected by self-report and/or radiographic reports. Extended Poisson regression examined the relationship between differences in LS and FN T-scores (ΔLS-FN) and fracture risk, adjusted for age, time since baseline and other factors including FRAX 10-year probability for major osteoporotic fracture calculated using FN BMD. To examine the effect of an adjustment for ΔLS-FN on reclassification, women were separated into risk categories by their FRAX major fracture probability. High risk was classified using two approaches: being above the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group intervention threshold or, separately, being in the highest third of each cohort. The absolute ΔLS-FN was greater than 2 SD for 2.5% of women and between 1 and 2 SD for 21%. ΔLS-FN was associated with a significant risk of fracture adjusted for baseline FRAX (HR per SD change = 1.09; 95% CI = 1.04-1.15). In reclassification analyses, only 2.3-3.2% of the women moved to a higher or lower risk category when using FRAX with ΔLS-FN compared with FN-derived FRAX alone. Adjustment of estimated fracture risk for a large LS/FN discrepancy (>2SD) impacts to a large extent on only a relatively small number of individuals. More moderate (1-2SD) discordances in FN and LS T-scores have a small impact on FRAX probabilities. This might still improve clinical decision-making, particularly in women with probabilities close to an intervention threshold.

The incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture in Iceland and implications for FRAX.

SUMMARY: Based on an extensive cohort study over 25 years, the present study supports the assumption that major osteoporotic fractures can be reasonably predicted from hip fracture rates. INTRODUCTION: The construct for FRAX models depends on algorithms to adjust for double counting of fracture outcomes in some models and in others, to estimate the incidence of a major fracture from hip fracture rates. The aim of the present study was to test the validity of these algorithms in a large prospective cohort. METHODS: The incidence of hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and humerus fracture was determined in the prospective and ongoing population-based Reykjavik Study with follow up of 257,001 person-years. The incidence of a first major fracture was compared with the correction factors used in FRAX to adjust the incidence of several fracture outcomes for double counting. In addition, the incidence of a major osteoporotic fracture estimated from the Icelandic hip fracture rates was compared with the Malmo ratios used in FRAX. RESULTS: The adjustments necessary to account for multiple fracture outcomes were similar to those previously derived from Sweden. Additionally, incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture was similar to that derived for FRAX models. CONCLUSION: The findings of the present study support the algorithms used in FRAX to estimate the incidence of a first major fracture and the predictive value of hip fracture for other major fractures.

Lumbar spine texture enhances 10-year fracture probability assessment.

UNLABELLED: We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.

Waning predictive value of serum adiponectin for fracture risk in elderly men: MrOS Sweden.

UNLABELLED: Serum adiponectin is a risk factor for fracture. The predictive value attenuates with time in elderly men so that its use for the risk assessment in the long term is questionable. The study underlines the importance of testing the long-term stability of potential risk factors. INTRODUCTION: High serum adiponectin is associated with an increased risk of fracture in elderly men. The aim of the present study was to determine the impact of adiponectin on the probability of fracture as a function of time. METHODS: The probability of osteoporotic fracture was computed in 989 elderly men from the MrOS study in Sweden. Baseline data included clinical risk factors for fracture, femoral neck BMD and serum adiponectin. Men were followed for up to 7.4 years with a mean follow up of 5.3 years (range 0.0-7.4 years). Poisson regression was used to model the hazard function for osteoporotic fracture and death to determine the 10 year probability of fracture. RESULTS: During follow up, 124 men sustained one or more osteoporotic fracture. There was a significant interaction between adiponectin and time since baseline (p = 0.026) such that the longer time since baseline, the lower the gradient of fracture risk. When using this interaction in the calculation of 10-year probability of fracture, the probabilities of osteoporotic fracture varied little over the range of adiponectin values. CONCLUSION: Serum adiponectin is a risk factor for fracture. Nevertheless, the predictive value attenuates with time so that its use for the risk assessment in the long term is questionable. This study underlines the importance of testing the long-term stability of potential risk factors that might be used in fracture risk assessment.