A Simple Risk Scoring System for Predicting the Occurrence of Aspiration Pneumonia After Gastric Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection.

BACKGROUND: Aspiration pneumonia after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is rare, but can be fatal. We aimed to investigate risk factors and develop a simple risk scoring system for aspiration pneumonia. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed medical records of 7833 patients who underwent gastric ESD for gastric neoplasm under anesthesiologist-directed sedation. Candidate risk factors were screened and assessed for significance using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based method. Top significant factors were incorporated into a multivariable logistic regression model, whose prediction performance was compared with those of other machine learning models. The final risk scoring system was created based on the estimated odds ratios of the logistic regression model. RESULTS: The incidence of aspiration pneumonia was 1.5%. The logistic regression model showed comparable performance to the best predictive model, extreme gradient boost (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.731 vs 0.740). The estimated odds ratios were subsequently used for the development of the clinical scoring system. The final scoring system exhibited an AUROC of 0.730 in the test dataset with risk factors: age (≥70 years, 4 points), male sex (8 points), body mass index (≥27 kg/m2, 4 points), procedure time (≥80 minutes, 5 points), lesion in the lower third of the stomach (5 points), tumor size (≥10 mm, 3 points), recovery time (≥35 minutes, 4 points), and desaturation during ESD (9 points). For patients with total scores ranging between 0 and 33 points, aspiration pneumonia probabilities spanned between 0.1% and 17.9%. External validation using an additional cohort of 827 patients yielded AUROCs of 0.698 for the logistic regression model and 0.680 for the scoring system. CONCLUSIONS: Our simple risk scoring system has 8 predictors incorporating patient-, procedure-, and sedation-related factors. This system may help clinicians to stratify patients at risk of aspiration pneumonia after ESD.

Influence of age on gender-related differences in acute kidney injury after minimally invasive radical or partial nephrectomy.

BACKGROUND: Female gender is known to be protective against acute kidney injury (AKI) after radical or partial nephrectomy and estrogen is considered a protective factor. If estrogen is a major contributor to the protective effects of female gender against renal injury, these protective effects may be diminished in postmenopausal women. Therefore, this retrospective study investigated the influence of female age on gender-related differences in AKI after minimally invasive radical or partial nephrectomy. METHODS: Patients who underwent minimally invasive radical (n = 765) or partial (n = 1161) nephrectomy were selected. These patients were stratified by gender and divided into three age categories considered to be pre, peri, and postmenopausal periods in women: ≤ 40 years, 41-59 years, and ≥ 60 years, respectively. Adjusted logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the risk of AKI according to gender and age. RESULTS: The incidence of AKI after radical or partial nephrectomy was significantly higher in men as compared to women in all age categories. Women aged ≥ 60 years had a significantly increased risk of AKI as compared to women aged < 60 years in radical nephrectomy, but not in partial nephrectomy. When compared with women aged ≥ 60 years, men aged > 40 years accompanied significantly higher risk of AKI following both radical and partial nephrectomy, even after adjusting confounders. However, men aged ≤ 40 years had a similar risk of AKI after radical nephrectomy, but a significantly higher risk after partial nephrectomy as compared to women aged ≥ 60 years. CONCLUSION: Male gender was associated with a higher risk of AKI after radical and partial nephrectomy as compared to postmenopausal women. This calls for more thorough preoperative counseling and renal protective strategies in male patients when undergoing radical and partial nephrectomy.

Predictive models for chronic kidney disease after radical or partial nephrectomy in renal cell cancer using early postoperative serum creatinine levels.

BACKGROUND: Several predictive factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) following radical nephrectomy (RN) or partial nephrectomy (PN) have been identified. However, early postoperative laboratory values were infrequently considered as potential predictors. Therefore, this study aimed to develop predictive models for CKD 1 year after RN or PN using early postoperative laboratory values, including serum creatinine (SCr) levels, in addition to preoperative and intraoperative factors. Moreover, the optimal SCr sampling time point for the best prediction of CKD was determined. METHODS: Data were retrospectively collected from patients with renal cell cancer who underwent laparoscopic or robotic RN (n = 557) or PN (n = 999). Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors, including laboratory values, were incorporated during model development. We developed 8 final models using information collected at different time points (preoperative, postoperative day [POD] 0 to 5, and postoperative 1 month). Lastly, we combined all possible subsets of the developed models to generate 120 meta-models. Furthermore, we built a web application to facilitate the implementation of the model. RESULTS: The magnitude of postoperative elevation of SCr and history of CKD were the most important predictors for CKD at 1 year, followed by RN (compared to PN) and older age. Among the final models, the model using features of POD 4 showed the best performance for correctly predicting the stages of CKD at 1 year compared to other models (accuracy: 79% of POD 4 model versus 75% of POD 0 model, 76% of POD 1 model, 77% of POD 2 model, 78% of POD 3 model, 76% of POD 5 model, and 73% in postoperative 1 month model). Therefore, POD 4 may be the optimal sampling time point for postoperative SCr. A web application is hosted at https://dongy.shinyapps.io/aki_ckd . CONCLUSIONS: Our predictive model, which incorporated postoperative laboratory values, especially SCr levels, in addition to preoperative and intraoperative factors, effectively predicted the occurrence of CKD 1 year after RN or PN and may be helpful for comprehensive management planning.

Prediction of hypotension after postural change in robot-assisted laparoscopic prostatectomy using esophageal Doppler monitoring: a prospective observational trial.

Postural change from a steep Trendelenburg position to a supine position (T-off) during robot-assisted laparoscopic prostatectomy (RALP) induces a considerable abrupt decrease in the mean arterial pressure (MAP). We investigated the variables for predicting postural hypotension induced by T-off using esophageal Doppler monitoring (EDM). One hundred and twenty-five patients undergoing RALP were enrolled. Data on the MAP, heart rate, stroke volume index (SVI), cardiac index, peak velocity, corrected flow time, stroke volume variation, pulse pressure variation, arterial elastance (Ea), and dynamic arterial elastance were collected before T-off and at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 min after T-off using EDM. MAP < 60 mmHg within 10 min after T-off was considered to indicate hypotension, and 25 patients developed hypotension. The areas under the curves of the MAP, SVI, and Ea were 0.734 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.623-0.846; P < 0.001), 0.712 (95% CI 0.598-0.825; P < 0.001), and 0.760 (95% CI 0.646-0.875; P < 0.001), respectively, with threshold values of ≤ 74 mmHg, ≥ 42.5 mL/m2, and ≤ 1.08 mmHg/mL, respectively. If patients have MAP < 75 mmHg with SVI ≥ 42.5 mL/m2 or Ea ≤ 1.08 mmHg/mL before postural change from T-off during RALP, prompt management for ensuing hypotension should be considered.Trial registration: NCT03882697 (ClinicalTrial.gov, March 20, 2019).

Airway management in a patient with an intratracheal tumor near the carina by a two-stage operation.

In patients with intratracheal tumors, airway management while maintaining oxygenation and providing surgical access to the airway can be challenging. Here, we present a case of a two-stage operation to remove an intratracheal tumor causing partial obstruction near the carina. In the otorhinolaryngology department, a biopsy was performed during apnea under high-flow nasal oxygenation support. A few days later, a thoracic surgeon performed tracheal resection after sternotomy under general anesthesia. Mechanical ventilation was performed by inserting a sterile endotracheal tube in the resected distal part of the trachea in the surgical field for tracheal end-to-end anastomosis. Airway was successfully secured through close communication between teams of anesthesiologists and surgeons.