RESUMEN
Food systems worldwide are vulnerable to Phosphorus (P) supply disruptions and price fluctuations. Current P use is also highly inefficient, generating large surpluses and pollution. Global food security and aquatic ecosystems are in jeopardy if transformative action is not taken. This paper pivots from earlier (predominantly conceptual) work to develop and analyse a P transdisciplinary scenario process, assessing stakeholders potential for transformative thinking in P use in the food system. Northern Ireland, a highly livestock-intensive system, was used as case study for illustrating such process. The stakeholder engagement takes a normative stance in that it sets the explicit premise that the food system needs to be transformed and asks stakeholders to engage in a dialogue on how that transformation can be achieved. A Substance Flow Analysis of P flows and stocks was employed to construct visions for alternative futures and stimulate stakeholder discussions on system responses. These were analysed for their transformative potential using a triple-loop social learning framework. For the most part, stakeholder responses remained transitional or incremental, rather than being fundamentally transformative. The process did unveil some deeper levers that could be acted upon to move the system further along the spectrum of transformational change (e.g. changes in food markets, creation of new P markets, destocking, new types of land production and radical land use changes), providing clues of what an aspirational system could look like. Replicated and adapted elsewhere, this process can serve as diagnostics of current stakeholders thinking and potential, as well as for the identification of those deeper levers, opening up avenues to work upon for global scale transformation.
RESUMEN
Efforts to tackle diffuse water pollution from agriculture are increasingly focusing on improving farmers' awareness under the expectation that this would contribute to adoption of best management practices (BMPs) and, in turn, result in water quality improvements. To date, however, no study has explored the full awareness-behaviour-water quality pathway; with previous studies having mostly addressed the awareness-behaviour link relying on disciplinary approaches. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we investigate whether awareness-focussed approaches to mitigating diffuse water pollution from agriculture indeed result in water quality improvement, addressing the pathway in full. We worked with Dwr Cymru Welsh Water (a water and waste utility company in the UK) on a pesticide pollution intervention programme, referred to as "weed wiper trial". The main goal of the trial was to raise farmers' awareness regarding pesticide management practices and to promote uptake of BMPs to tackle the rising concentrations of the pesticide MCPA (2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid) in raw water in three catchments in Wales. Using factorial analysis of variance, we analysed MCPA concentrations from 2006 to 2019 in the three targeted catchments and in three control catchments. This was followed by semi-structured in-depth interviews with institutional stakeholders and farmers with varying degrees of exposure to the weed wiper trial. Results show that MCPA concentration for both targeted and control catchments had reduced after the implementation of the weed wiper trial. However, the decline was significantly larger (F(1) = 6.551, p < 0.05, n = 3077, Partial eta-squared (ηp2) = 0.002) for the targeted catchments (mean = 45.2%) compared to the control catchments (mean = 10.9%). Results from the stakeholder interviews indicate that improved awareness contributed to changes in farmers' behaviour and that these can be related to the water quality improvements reflected by the decline in MCPA concentration. Alongside awareness, other psychosocial, economic, agronomic factors, catchment and weather conditions also influenced farmer's ability to implement BMPs and thus overall water quality improvements.