Incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland-impact of the TraP HepC nationwide HCV elimination program.

OBJECTIVE: In 2016, a nationwide elimination program for hepatitis C virus (HCV) was initiated in Iceland, entitled Treatment as Prevention for Hepatitis C (TraP HepC), providing unrestricted access to antiviral treatment. The aims were to describe the changes in etiology and epidemiology of cirrhosis in Iceland and to assess the trends in HCV-related cirrhosis following TraP HepC. METHODS: The study included all patients newly diagnosed with cirrhosis in 2016-2022. Diagnosis was based on liver elastography, histology, or 2 of 4 criteria: cirrhosis on imaging, ascites, varices, or elevated international normalized ratio (INR). RESULTS: Over the study period, 342 new cirrhosis patients were identified, 223 (65%) males, median age 62 years. The crude overall incidence was 13.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually. The most common etiologies were alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) (40%), metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) (28%), and HCV with or without alcohol overconsumption (15%). The number of HCV cirrhosis cases was unusually high in 2016 (n = 23) due to intensified case-finding, but decreased significantly over the study period (p < 0.001) to n = 1 (2021) and n = 2 (2022). The overall 5-year survival was 55% (95% CI 48.9-62.3%). The most common causes of death were hepatocellular carcinoma (26%) and liver failure (25%). CONCLUSION: During the past two decades, the incidence of cirrhosis has increased extraordinarily in Iceland, associated with increased alcohol consumption, obesity, and HCV. ALD and MASLD now collectively make up two thirds of cases in Iceland. Following a nationwide elimination program, incidence of HCV cirrhosis has dropped rapidly in Iceland.

Crop phenotype prediction using biclustering to explain genotype-by-environment interactions.

Phenotypic variation in plants is attributed to genotype (G), environment (E), and genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI). Although the main effects of G and E are typically larger and easier to model, the GEI interaction effects are important and a critical factor when considering such issues as to why some genotypes perform consistently well across a range of environments. In plant breeding, a major challenge is limited information, including a single genotype is tested in only a small subset of all possible test environments. The two-way table of phenotype responses will therefore commonly contain missing data. In this paper, we propose a new model of GEI effects that only requires an input of a two-way table of phenotype observations, with genotypes as rows and environments as columns that do not assume the completeness of data. Our analysis can deal with this scenario as it utilizes a novel biclustering algorithm that can handle missing values, resulting in an output of homogeneous cells with no interactions between G and E. In other words, we identify subsets of genotypes and environments where phenotype can be modeled simply. Based on this, we fit no-interaction models to predict phenotypes of a given crop and draw insights into how a particular cultivar will perform in the unused test environments. Our new methodology is validated on data from different plant species and phenotypes and shows superior performance compared to well-studied statistical approaches.

Multiomics study of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) and its sequelae are growing health problems. We performed a genome-wide association study of NAFL, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, and integrated the findings with expression and proteomic data. For NAFL, we utilized 9,491 clinical cases and proton density fat fraction extracted from 36,116 liver magnetic resonance images. We identified 18 sequence variants associated with NAFL and 4 with cirrhosis, and found rare, protective, predicted loss-of-function variants in MTARC1 and GPAM, underscoring them as potential drug targets. We leveraged messenger RNA expression, splicing and predicted coding effects to identify 16 putative causal genes, of which many are implicated in lipid metabolism. We analyzed levels of 4,907 plasma proteins in 35,559 Icelanders and 1,459 proteins in 47,151 UK Biobank participants, identifying multiple proteins involved in disease pathogenesis. We show that proteomics can discriminate between NAFL and cirrhosis. The present study provides insights into the development of noninvasive evaluation of NAFL and new therapeutic options.

High Rate of Hepatitis C Virus Reinfection Among Recently Injecting Drug Users: Results From the TraP Hep C Program-A Prospective Nationwide, Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: The Treatment as Prevention for Hepatitis C program started in 2016 in Iceland, offering treatment with direct-acting antivirals to hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals. Reinfections through injection drug use (IDU) can hamper elimination efforts. We determined reinfection rates of HCV among patients in the program. METHODS: Clinical data were gathered prospectively. The study cohort consisted of HCV-cured patients with an estimated sustained virologic response between 1 February 2016 and 20 November 2018, with follow-up until 20 November 2019. The observation period and time until reinfection was estimated using a single random point imputation method coupled with Monte Carlo simulation. The reinfection rates were expressed as reinfections per 100 person-years (PY). RESULTS: In total, 640 treatments of 614 patients (417 male; mean age, 44.3 years) resulted in cure, with 52 reinfections subsequently confirmed in 50 patients (37 male). Follow-up was 672.1 PY, with a median time to reinfection of 232 days. History of IDU was reported by 523 patients (84.8%) and recent IDU with 220 treatments (34.4%). Stimulants were the preferred injected drug in 85.5% of patients with a history of IDU. The reinfection rate was 7.7/100 PY. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models for interval-censored data, age (hazard ratio, 0.96 [95% confidence interval, .94-.99]) and recent IDU (2.91 [1.48-5.76]) were significantly associated with reinfection risk. CONCLUSIONS: The reinfection rate is high in a setting of widespread stimulant use, particularly in young people with recent IDU. Regular follow-up is important among high-risk populations to diagnose reinfections early and reduce transmission. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02647879.

Hepatitis B virus elimination status and strategies in circumpolar countries, 2020.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a global health threat. The World Health Organization (WHO) established a goal to eliminate HBV infection as a public health threat by 2030, and defined targets for key interventions to achieve that goal. We evaluated HBV burden and relevant national recommendations for progress towards WHO targets in circumpolar countries. Viral hepatitis experts of circumpolar countries were surveyed regarding their country's burden of HBV, achievement of WHO targets and national public health authority recommendations for HBV prevention and control. Eight of nine circumpolar countries responded. All countries continue to see new HBV infections. Data about HBV prevalence and progress in reaching WHO 2030 elimination targets are lacking. No country was able to report data for all seven WHO target measures. All countries have recommendations targeting the prevention of mother-to-child transmission. Only the USA and Greenland recommend universal birth dose vaccination. Four countries have recommendations to screen persons at high risk for HBV. Existing recommendations largely address prevention; however, recommendations for universal birth dose vaccination have not been widely introduced. Opportunities remain for the development of trackable targets and national elimination planning to screen and treat for HBV to reduce incidence and mortality.

Cascade of care during the first 36 months of the treatment as prevention for hepatitis C (TraP HepC) programme in Iceland: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: WHO has set targets to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection as a global health threat by 2030 through a 65% reduction in HCV-related deaths and 80% reduction in HCV incidence. To achieve these goals, WHO set service coverage targets of 90% of the infected population being diagnosed and 80% of eligible patients being treated. In February, 2016, Iceland initiated a nationwide HCV elimination programme known as treatment as prevention for hepatitis C (TraP HepC), which aimed to maximise diagnosis and treatment access. This analysis reports on the HCV cascade of care in the first 3 years of the programme. METHODS: This population-based study was done between Feb 10, 2016, and Feb 10, 2019. Participants aged 18 years or older with permanent residence in Iceland and PCR-confirmed HCV were offered direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. The programme used a multidisciplinary team approach in which people who inject drugs were prioritised. Nationwide awareness campaigns, improved access to testing, and harm reduction services were scaled up simultaneously. The number of infected people in the national HCV registry was used in combination with multiple other data sources, including screening of low-risk groups and high-risk groups, to estimate the total number of HCV infections. The number of people diagnosed, linked to care, initiated on treatment, and cured were recorded during the study. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02647879. FINDINGS: In February, 2016, at the onset of the programme, 760 (95% CI 690-851) individuals were estimated to have HCV infection, with 75 (95% CI 6-166) individuals undiagnosed. 682 individuals were confirmed to be HCV PCR positive. Over the next 3 years, 183 new infections (including 42 reinfections) were diagnosed, for a total of 865 infections in 823 individuals. It was estimated that more than 90% of all domestic HCV infections had been diagnosed as early as January, 2017. During the 3 years, 824 (95·3%) of diagnosed infections were linked to care, and treatment was initiated for 795 (96·5%) of infections linked to care. Cure was achieved for 717 (90·2%) of 795 infections. INTERPRETATION: By using a multidisciplinary public health approach, involving tight integration with addiction treatment services, the core service coverage targets for 2030 set by WHO have been reached. These achievements position Iceland to be among the first nations to subsequently achieve the WHO goal of eliminating HCV as a public health threat. FUNDING: The Icelandic Government and Gilead Sciences.

A nationwide population-based prospective study of cirrhosis in Iceland.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland has been the lowest in the world with only 3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Alcohol consumption has almost doubled in Iceland from 1980 to 2016. Obesity has also risen and hepatitis C virus has spread among people who inject drugs in Iceland. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of these risk factors on the incidence and aetiology of cirrhosis in Iceland. METHODS: The study included all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis for the first time during 2010-2015. Diagnosis was based on liver histology or 2 of 4 criteria: cirrhosis on imaging, ascites, varices, and/or elevated INR. RESULTS: Overall, 157 patients were diagnosed, 105 (67%) males, mean age 61 years. The overall incidence was 9.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually. Alcohol was the only underlying cause in 48/157 (31%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in 34/157(22%), and alcohol and hepatitis C together in 23/157(15%) were the most common causes. Only 6% of patients had an unknown cause of cirrhosis. Upon diagnosis, the median model for end-stage liver disease score was 11 (IQR 8-15), 53% were of Child-Pugh class A whereas 61 (39%) had ascites, 11% encephalopathy, and 8% variceal bleeding. In all, 25% of deaths were from HCC and 25% from liver failure. CONCLUSION: A major increase in incidence of cirrhosis has occurred in Iceland associated with increases in alcohol consumption, obesity, and hepatitis C. In a high proportion NAFLD was the aetiology and very few had unknown cause of cirrhosis. The highest death rate was from HCC. LAY SUMMARY: In a nationwide population-based study from Iceland, including all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver over a period of 5 years, we found the incidence of new cases had increased 3-fold compared with a previous study 20 years ago. The increase is attributable to increased alcohol consumption, an epidemic of diabetes and obesity, and infection with the hepatitis C virus. Furthermore, we found that with thorough investigations, a specific cause for cirrhosis could be found in 94% of patients. Patients with cirrhosis frequently die of liver cancer and other complications related to their liver disease.

Common and Rare Sequence Variants Influencing Tumor Biomarkers in Blood.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), cancer antigens 15.3, 19.9, and 125, carcinoembryonic antigen, and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) are widely measured in attempts to detect cancer and to monitor treatment response. However, due to lack of sensitivity and specificity, their utility is debated. The serum levels of these markers are affected by a number of nonmalignant factors, including genotype. Thus, it may be possible to improve both sensitivity and specificity by adjusting test results for genetic effects. METHODS: We performed genome-wide association studies of serum levels of AFP (N = 22,686), carcinoembryonic antigen (N = 22,309), cancer antigens 15.3 (N = 7,107), 19.9 (N = 9,945), and 125 (N = 9,824), and ALP (N = 162,774). We also examined the correlations between levels of these biomarkers and the presence of cancer, using data from a nationwide cancer registry. RESULTS: We report a total of 84 associations of 79 sequence variants with levels of the six biomarkers, explaining between 2.3% and 42.3% of the phenotypic variance. Among the 79 variants, 22 are cis (in- or near the gene encoding the biomarker), 18 have minor allele frequency less than 1%, 31 are coding variants, and 7 are associated with gene expression in whole blood. We also find multiple conditions associated with higher biomarker levels. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide insights into the genetic contribution to diversity in concentration of tumor biomarkers in blood. IMPACT: Genetic correction of biomarker values could improve prediction algorithms and decision-making based on these biomarkers.

[Primary sclerosing cholangitis in Iceland 1992-2012].

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic disease affecting the intra- and/or extrahepatic biliary tree with inflammation and progressive stricture formation that can lead to cirrhosis, end stage liver failure and liver transplantation. Known risk factors include inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), mainly ulcerative colitis (UC). Highest reported incidence in an adult population is 1.2-1.3/100.000 in Norway and Sweden, where 60-76% have IBD. The aim of this study was to investigate epidemiology of PSC in Iceland in the years 1992 to 2012 and the patients outcomes. METHODS: A search for the diagnosis "cholangitis" (ICD-10, K83.0) was performed in the database for hospital records in Landspítali (The National University Hospital of Iceland, LSH) and Akureyri Hospital from 1992 to 2012. We also looked through all ERCP and MRCP imaging done in LSH in the same period along with a text search in both the hospital records and the pathology database for liver biopsies. Data on these patients was collected until the end of 2016. RESULTS: A total of 42 patient got the diagnosis PSC within the period. Median age at diagnosis was 34 years, 67% were male and 90% adults (≥18 years old). Mean incidence per year was 0.69/100.000. Overall 88% of patients had IBD, thereof 89% UC. Seven patients have been diagnosed with cancer, four with cancer in the bile ducts and one in the gallbladder. Within the study period a total of five patients died (12%), 51 months (median) from diagnosis and three from cholangiocarcinoma, 51 months (median) from diagnosis. Three patients (7%) underwent liver transplantation, one required a transplant two times. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of PSC in Iceland turned out to be lower than in our neighbouring countries in Scandinavia. It is unclear if this is due to underdiagnosis or, more likely, that PSC is simply more uncommon in Iceland. Overall 7% underwent liver transplantation and 12% died within the study period, main cause of mortality being cholangiocarcinoma.

Innovative strategies for the elimination of viral hepatitis at a national level: A country case series.

Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but has long been neglected by national and international policymakers. Recent modelling studies suggest that investing in the global elimination of viral hepatitis is feasible and cost-effective. In 2016, all 194 member states of the World Health Organization endorsed the goal to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030, but complex systemic and social realities hamper implementation efforts. This paper presents eight case studies from a diverse range of countries that have invested in responses to viral hepatitis and adopted innovative approaches to tackle their respective epidemics. Based on an investment framework developed to build a global investment case for the elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030, national activities and key enablers are highlighted that showcase the feasibility and impact of concerted hepatitis responses across a range of settings, with different levels of available resources and infrastructural development. These case studies demonstrate the utility of taking a multipronged, public health approach to: (a) evidence-gathering and planning; (b) implementation; and (c) integration of viral hepatitis services into the Agenda for Sustainable Development. They provide models for planning, investment and implementation strategies for other countries facing similar challenges and resource constraints.

Biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid among PBC patients: a nationwide population-based study.

Objective: To assess the proportion of PBC patients with a biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in a population-based cohort and the association of biochemical response with outcomes. Methods: All patients diagnosed with PBC in Iceland from 1991-2015 were identified. Patients taking UDCA for an adequate period of time were analyzed for treatment response according to the Barcelona, Paris I, Paris II and Toronto criteria and outcomes. Results: Overall 182 females and 40 males were diagnosed with PBC and 135 patients were treated with UDCA. Overall 99 (73%) patients had adequate data on UDCA treatment and results of liver tests to assess biochemical response according to the Barcelona criteria, 95 (70%) according to the Toronto criterion and 85 (63%) according to the Paris I and II criteria. In all 74% (n = 63), 67% (n = 64), 54% (n = 53) and 46% (n = 39) responded to treatment according to the Paris I, Toronto, Barcelona and Paris II criteria. Among nonresponders according to the Paris I, Toronto, Paris II and Barcelona criteria, 50%, 39%, 33% and 30% developed cirrhosis versus 10%, 6%, 5% and 11% of responders, HR 5.36 (p = .002), 6.61 (p = .002), 10.94 (p = .003) and 2.21(p = .11), respectively. Age-adjusted mortality was significantly lower among responders according to the Paris I and Paris II criteria, HR 0.33 (p = .02) and 0.31 (p = .02), respectively. Conclusion: Development of cirrhosis and higher mortality was significantly associated with a lack of biochemical response to UDCA. Frequent development of cirrhosis and increased mortality in nonresponders underlines the need for a more effective therapy than UDCA for this sizeable subgroup of patients.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis yields 20 loci associated with gallstone disease.

Gallstones are responsible for one of the most common diseases in the Western world and are commonly treated with cholecystectomy. We perform a meta-analysis of two genome-wide association studies of gallstone disease in Iceland and the UK, totaling 27,174 cases and 736,838 controls, uncovering 21 novel gallstone-associated variants at 20 loci. Two distinct low frequency missense variants in SLC10A2, encoding the apical sodium-dependent bile acid transporter (ASBT), associate with an increased risk of gallstone disease (Pro290Ser: OR = 1.36 [1.25-1.49], P = 2.1 × 10-12, MAF = 1%; Val98Ile: OR = 1.15 [1.10-1.20], P = 1.8 × 10-10, MAF = 4%). We demonstrate that lower bile acid transport by ASBT is accompanied by greater risk of gallstone disease and highlight the role of the intestinal compartment of the enterohepatic circulation of bile acids in gallstone disease susceptibility. Additionally, two low frequency missense variants in SERPINA1 and HNF4A and 17 common variants represent novel associations with gallstone disease.

A rare missense variant in NR1H4 associates with lower cholesterol levels.

Searching for novel sequence variants associated with cholesterol levels is of particular interest due to the causative role of non-HDL cholesterol levels in cardiovascular disease. Through whole-genome sequencing of 15,220 Icelanders and imputation of the variants identified, we discovered a rare missense variant in NR1H4 (R436H) associating with lower levels of total cholesterol (effect = -0.47 standard deviations or -0.55 mmol L-1, p = 4.21 × 10-10, N = 150,211). Importantly, NR1H4 R436H also associates with lower levels of non-HDL cholesterol and, consistent with this, protects against coronary artery disease. NR1H4 encodes FXR that regulates bile acid homeostasis, however, we do not detect a significant association between R436H and biological markers of liver function. Transcriptional profiling of hepatocytes carrying R436H shows that it is not a loss-of-function variant. Rather, we observe changes in gene expression compatible with effects on lipids. These findings highlight the role of FXR in regulation of cholesterol levels in humans.

Low prevalence of hepatitis E in Iceland: a seroepidemiological study.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection has been reported to be more prevalent in the developed countries than previously thought. HEV infection is an important differential diagnosis in patients with drug-induced liver injury (DILI). The prevalence of hepatitis E was investigated in the general population of Iceland, among pig farmers and patients with DILI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Serum samples were tested for hepatitis E IgG, with two commercial ELISA tests: Diagnostic Bioprobes Srl. (Dia Pro) and the Wantai HEV IgG and subjects repeatedly reactive were tested with an immunoblot assay (RecomLINE). Three groups were tested: (1) healthy volunteers (HV), (2) pig farm workers (PFWs) and (3) patients participating in a nationwide prospective study on DILI. RESULTS: Overall 291 individuals were tested, HV (n = 195), PFW (n = 21) and DILI (n = 75). Only 6/291 (2.1%) tested positive for IgG antibodies to HEV in all three tests. Three HV were HEV IgG antibody positive and three in the DILI group. One PFW tested positive in the Dia Pro and Wantai tests but not in the immunoblot assay. All but one of the positive individuals in all three tests was either of foreign national origin or had spent extended period of time outside of Iceland. CONCLUSIONS: The seroprevalence of hepatitis E appears to be lower in Iceland than majority of recent studies in other western countries have demonstrated. This may be due to relative isolation and severe restriction on import of livestock from other countries.

Restrictions for reimbursement of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral drugs for HCV infection in Europe.

All-oral direct-acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus, which have response rates of 95% or more, represent a major clinical advance. However, the high list price of DAAs has led many governments to restrict their reimbursement. We reviewed the availability of, and national criteria for, interferon-free DAA reimbursement among countries in the European Union and European Economic Area, and Switzerland. Reimbursement documentation was reviewed between Nov 18, 2016, and Aug 1, 2017. Primary outcomes were fibrosis stage, drug or alcohol use, prescriber type, and HIV co-infection restrictions. Among the 35 European countries and jurisdictions included, the most commonly reimbursed DAA was ombitasvir, paritaprevir, and ritonavir, with dasabuvir, and with or without ribavirin (33 [94%] countries and jurisdictions). 16 (46%) countries and jurisdictions required patients to have fibrosis at stage F2 or higher, 29 (83%) had no listed restrictions based on drug or alcohol use, 33 (94%) required a specialist prescriber, and 34 (97%) had no additional restrictions for people co-infected with HIV and hepatitis C virus. These findings have implications for meeting WHO targets, with evidence of some countries not following the 2016 hepatitis C virus treatment guidelines by the European Association for the Study of Liver.

Modelling the elimination of hepatitis C as a public health threat in Iceland: A goal attainable by 2020.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In Iceland a nationwide program has been launched offering direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment for everyone living with hepatitis C virus (HCV). We estimate (i) the time and treatment scale-up required to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence; and (ii) the ongoing frequency of HCV testing and harm reduction coverage among people who inject drugs (PWID) required to minimize the likelihood of future HCV outbreaks occurring. METHODS: We used a dynamic compartmental model of HCV transmission, liver disease progression and the HCV cascade of care, calibrated to reproduce the epidemic of HCV in Iceland. The model was stratified according to injecting drug use status, age and stage of engagement. Four scenarios were considered for the projections. RESULTS: The model estimated that an 80% reduction in domestic HCV incidence was achievable by 2030, 2025 or 2020 if a minimum of 55/1,000, 75/1,000 and 188/1,000 PWID were treated per year, respectively (a total of 22, 30 and 75 of the estimated 400 PWID in Iceland per year, respectively). Regardless of time frame, this required an increased number of PWID to be diagnosed to generate enough treatment demand, or a 20% scale-up of harm reduction services to complement treatment-as-prevention incidence reductions. When DAA scale-up was combined with annual antibody testing of PWID, the incidence reduction target was reached by 2024. Treatment scale-up with no other changes to current testing and harm reduction services reduced the basic reproduction number of HCV from 1.08 to 0.59, indicating that future outbreaks would be unlikely. CONCLUSION: HCV elimination in Iceland is achievable by 2020 with some additional screening of PWID. Maintaining current monitoring and harm reduction services while providing ongoing access to DAA therapy for people diagnosed with HCV would ensure that outbreaks are unlikely to occur once elimination targets have been reached. LAY SUMMARY: In Iceland, a nationwide program has been launched offering treatment for the entire population living with hepatitis C virus (HCV). A mathematical model was used to estimate the additional health system requirements to achieve the HCV elimination targets of the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as the year that this could occur. With some additional screening of people who inject drugs, Iceland could reach the WHO targets by 2020, becoming one of the first countries to achieve HCV elimination. The model estimated that once elimination targets were reached, maintaining current monitoring and harm reduction services while providing ongoing access to DAA therapy for people diagnosed with HCV would ensure that future HCV outbreaks are unlikely to occur.

Using the Icelandic genealogical database to define the familial risk of primary biliary cholangitis.

Hereditary factors in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) have been well defined in genome-wide association studies, but there are few direct data available that define the relative risk (RR) for family members with an affected proband. An increased risk in first-degree relatives has been demonstrated in a variety of studies, but data have been lacking on further detailed associations for subsequent generations. The objective of this study was to use the unique Icelandic genealogical database to study the familiality of PBC. All patients with positive antimitochondrial antibody measurements in Iceland during the period 1991-2015 who fulfilled diagnostic criteria for PBC were included. The Icelandic genealogical database was used to assess familial relations. For each case of PBC, 10,000 control subjects matched for age, sex, and number of known relatives were randomly chosen from this database to calculate the familial RR of PBC. The average kinship coefficient (KC) of the patients was calculated and compared with the average KC of controls. Overall, 222 PBC patients were identified (182 females, 40 males; median age, 62 years). First-, second- and third-degree relatives of the PBC patients had a high RR of the disease: 9.13 (P < 0.0001), 3.61 (P = 0.014) and 2.59 (P = 0.008), respectively. In fourth- and fifth-degree relatives, the RR was also increased to 1.66 (P = 0.08) and 1.42 (P = 0.08), respectively. The average KC of the patients was also higher than that of the control subjects, with 21.34 × 10-5 versus 9.56 × 10-5 (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Relatives of PBC patients had markedly higher risk for development of the disease compared with controls and importantly our data demonstrate that the risk was significantly increased even in second- and third-degree relatives. (Hepatology 2018;68:166-171).

A compensating income variation approach to valuing 34 health conditions in Iceland.

Using data from an Icelandic health-and-lifestyle survey carried out in 2007, 2009, and 2012, we employ a compensating income variation (CIV) approach to estimate the monetary value sufficient to compensate individuals for the presence of various sub-optimal health conditions. This method is inexpensive and easy on subjects and has been applied to several desiderata that do not have revealed market prices. The CIV literature is, however, still limited in its application to health and thus information about its suitability is limited. With the aim of shedding light on the method́s appropriateness we thus provide a broad-view analysis including a spectrum of diseases and conditions that can be held up against more traditionally used methods. CIV for physical conditions vary greatly, but paralysis, fibromyalgia, chronic back pain, rheumatoid arthritis, urinary incontinence, severe headache and thyroid disease were among those consistently associated with substantial well-being reductions. Mental-health results using this method should be read with caution. The societal value of health interventions is multidimensional, including for example increased productivity in the population. However, one of the main positive aspects of increased health is undoubtedly the increased well-being of the treated subjects. Such quality-of-life effects should thus preferably be taken into account. For this reason, information on the value individuals place on recovery from various sub-optimal health conditions is useful when it comes to prioritizing scarce capital in the health sector. It is therefore vital to estimate the importance individuals place on various health states and hold them up against each other. Furthermore, this paper has scientific value as it sheds light on attributes of a potentially useful method in health evaluations.