Improving the stability of temporal statistics in transition path theory with sparse data.

Ulam's method is a popular discretization scheme for stochastic operators that involves the construction of a transition probability matrix controlling a Markov chain on a set of cells covering some domain. We consider an application to satellite-tracked undrogued surface-ocean drifting buoy trajectories obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Drifter Program dataset. Motivated by the motion of Sargassum in the tropical Atlantic, we apply Transition Path Theory (TPT) to drifters originating off the west coast of Africa to the Gulf of Mexico. We find that the most common case of a regular covering by equal longitude-latitude side cells can lead to a large instability in the computed transition times as a function of the number of cells used. We propose a different covering based on a clustering of the trajectory data that is stable against the number of cells in the covering. We also propose a generalization of the standard transition time statistic of TPT that can be used to construct a partition of the domain of interest into weakly dynamically connected regions.

Stability of the Malvinas Current.

Deterministic and probabilistic tools from nonlinear dynamics are used to assess enduring near-surface Lagrangian aspects of the Malvinas Current. The deterministic tools are applied to a multiyear record of velocities derived from satellite altimetry data, revealing a resilient cross-stream transport barrier. This is composed of shearless-parabolic Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), which, extracted over sliding time windows along the multiyear altimetry-derived velocity record, lie in near-coincidental position. The probabilistic tools are applied on a large collection of historical satellite-tracked drifter trajectories, revealing weakly communicating flow regions as basins of attraction for long-time asymptotic almost-invariant sets on either side of the altimetry-derived barrier. Shearless-parabolic LCSs are detected for the first time from altimetry data, and their significance is supported on satellite-derived ocean color data, which reveal shapes that quite closely resemble the peculiar V shapes, dubbed "chevrons," that have recently confirmed the presence of similar LCSs in the atmosphere of Jupiter. Finally, using available in situ velocity and hydrographic data, sufficient and necessary conditions for nonlinear symmetric stability are found to be satisfied, suggesting a duality between Lagrangian and Eulerian stability for the Malvinas Current.

Markov-chain-inspired search for MH370.

Markov-chain models are constructed for the probabilistic description of the drift of marine debris from Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. En route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, MH370 mysteriously disappeared in the southeastern Indian Ocean on 8 March 2014, somewhere along the arc of the 7th ping ring around the Inmarsat-3F1 satellite position when the airplane lost contact. The models are obtained by discretizing the motion of undrogued satellite-tracked surface drifting buoys from the global historical data bank. A spectral analysis, Bayesian estimation, and the computation of most probable paths between the Inmarsat arc and confirmed airplane debris beaching sites are shown to constrain the crash site, near 25°S on the Inmarsat arc.

Coherent Lagrangian swirls among submesoscale motions.

The emergence of coherent Lagrangian swirls (CLSs) among submesoscale motions in the ocean is illustrated. This is done by applying recent nonlinear dynamics tools for Lagrangian coherence detection on a surface flow realization produced by a data-assimilative submesoscale-permitting ocean general circulation model simulation of the Gulf of Mexico. Both mesoscale and submesoscale CLSs are extracted. These extractions prove the relevance of coherent Lagrangian eddies detected in satellite-altimetry-based geostrophic flow data for the arguably more realistic ageostrophic multiscale flow.

Extracting quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns from the ocean circulation: An application to the Gulf of Mexico.

We construct a climatology of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs)-the concealed skeleton that shapes transport-with a twelve-year-long data-assimilative simulation of the sea-surface circulation in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Computed as time-mean Cauchy-Green strain tensorlines of the climatological velocity, the climatological LCSs (cLCSs) unveil recurrent Lagrangian circulation patterns. The cLCSs strongly constrain the ensemble-mean Lagrangian circulation of the instantaneous model velocity, showing that a climatological velocity can preserve meaningful transport information. The quasi-steady transport patterns revealed by the cLCSs agree well with aspects of the GoM circulation described in several previous observational and numerical studies. For example, the cLCSs identify regions of persistent isolation, and suggest that coastal regions previously identified as high-risk for pollution impact are regions of maximal attraction. We also show that cLCSs are remarkably accurate at identifying transport patterns observed during the Deepwater Horizon and Ixtoc oil spills, and during the Grand LAgrangian Deployment (GLAD) experiment. Thus it is shown that computing cLCSs is an efficient and meaningful way of synthesizing vast amounts of Lagrangian information. The cLCS method confirms previous GoM studies, and contributes to our understanding by revealing the persistent nature of the dynamics and kinematics treated therein.

Lagrangian dynamical geography of the Gulf of Mexico.

We construct a Markov-chain representation of the surface-ocean Lagrangian dynamics in a region occupied by the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and adjacent portions of the Caribbean Sea and North Atlantic using satellite-tracked drifter trajectory data, the largest collection so far considered. From the analysis of the eigenvectors of the transition matrix associated with the chain, we identify almost-invariant attracting sets and their basins of attraction. With this information we decompose the GoM's geography into weakly dynamically interacting provinces, which constrain the connectivity between distant locations within the GoM. Offshore oil exploration, oil spill contingency planning, and fish larval connectivity assessment are among the many activities that can benefit from the dynamical information carried in the geography constructed here.

Analysis of water quality and circulation of four recreational Miami beaches through the use of Lagrangian Coherent Structures.

Four popular, recreational beaches in Miami, FL are Hobie Beach, Virginia Key Beach, Crandon Park Beach, and Bill Baggs Cape Florida State Park. While all of the beaches are within a few miles of each other in Biscayne Bay, they have greatly differing water qualities, as determined by the testing for fecal indicator bacteria performed by the Florida Department of Health. Using the geodesic theory of transport barriers, we identify Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) in each area. We show how these material curves, which shape circulation and mixing patterns, can be used to explain the incongruous states of the water at beaches that should be comparable. The LCSs are computed using a hydrodynamic model and verified through field experimentation at each beach.

Isolation on the West Florida Shelf with implications for red tides and pollutant dispersal in the Gulf of Mexico.

Analysis of year-long drifter trajectories and records of simulated surface Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) have suggested the presence of a resilient Cross-Shelf Transport Barrier (CSTB) on the West Florida Shelf (WFS). The CSTB was conjectured to provide a large degree of isolation, which is consequential for the fueling of red tides on the southern WFS by nutrients possibly released by rivers and canals directly on the region. Here this conjecture is thoroughly tested by identifying LCSs as well as performing tracer advection calculations based on seven-year-long records of surface and subsurface currents produced by a HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulation of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The identified LCSs suggest that the CSTB extends downward in the water column. The tracer calculations suggest that, while the majority of the nutrients possibly released by rivers and canals directly on the southern WFS are retained within the region for long times, only a small fraction of the nutrients possibly released by rivers outside the WFS reach the southern WFS, mainly accompanying shoreward excursions of the CSTB. These results add importance to the role played by the CSTB in controlling red tide development on the WFS. Implications of the results for the dispersal of pollutants, such as oil, in the GoM are discussed.

An Assessment of the Importance of Chaotic Stirring and Turbulent Mixing on the West Florida Shelf.

Application of dynamical systems tools has recently revealed in surface ocean currents produced by a Hybrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulation the presence of a persistent large-scale Lagrangian coherent structure (LCS) on the southern portion of the west Florida shelf (WFS). Consistent with satellite-tracked drifter trajectories, this LCS constitutes a cross-shelf barrier for the lateral transport of passive tracers. Because of the constraints that the above LCS, as well as smaller-scale LCSs lying shoreside, can impose on pollutant dispersal and its potentially very important biological consequences, a study was carried out on the nature of the surface ocean Lagrangian motion on the WFS. The analysis is based on the same simulated surface ocean velocity field that has been able to sustain the aforementioned persistent cross-shelf transport barrier. Examination of several diagnostics suggests that chaotic stirring dominates over turbulent mixing on time scales of up to two months or so. More specifically, it is found on those time scales that tracer evolution at a given length scale is governed to a nonnegligible extent by coarser-scale velocity field features, fluid particle dispersion is spatially inhomogeneous, and the Lagrangian evolution is more irregular than the driving Eulerian flow.

Tracing the Early Development of Harmful Algal Blooms on the West Florida Shelf with the Aid of Lagrangian Coherent Structures.

Several theories have been proposed to explain the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs) produced by the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis on the West Florida Shelf. However, because the early stages of HAB development are usually not detected, these theories have been so far very difficult to verify. In this paper we employ simulated Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) to trace potential early locations of the development of a HAB in late 2004 before it was transported to a region where it could be detected by satellite imagery. The LCSs, which are extracted from surface ocean currents produced by a data-assimilative HYCOM (HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model) simulation, constitute material fluid barriers that demarcate potential pathways for HAB evolution. Using a simplified population dynamics model we infer the factors that could possibly lead to the development of the HAB in question. The population dynamics model determines nitrogen in two components, nutrients and phytoplankton, which are assumed to be passively advected by surface ocean currents produced by the above HYCOM simulation. Two nutrient sources are inferred for the HAB whose evolution is found to be strongly tied to the simulated LCSs. These nutrient sources are found to be located nearshore and possibly due to land runoff.

Robust transport barriers resulting from strong Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser stability.

Hamiltonian systems that locally violate the twist condition arise in many applications. Numerical simulations reveal that, when systems of this type are perturbed, the degenerate or nontwist tori are remarkably stable. This phenomenon, which we refer to as strong Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM) stability, is shown to be linked to very small resonance widths near degenerate tori. Quantitative estimates of degenerate resonance widths are derived and bifurcations of degenerate resonances are described. Strong KAM stability leads to robust transport barriers, which are important in all of the many applications in which Hamilitonians with the nontwist property arise.

Persistent transport barrier on the West Florida Shelf.

Analysis of drifter trajectories in the Gulf of Mexico has revealed the existence of a region on the southern portion of the West Florida Shelf (WFS) that is not visited by drifters that are released outside of the region. This so-called "forbidden zone" (FZ) suggests the existence of a persistent cross-shelf transport barrier on the southern portion of the WFS. In this letter a year-long record of surface currents produced by a Hybrid-Coordinate Ocean Model simulation of the WFS is used to compute Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), which reveal the presence of a persistent cross-shelf transport barrier in approximately the same location as the boundary of the FZ. The location of the cross-shelf transport barrier undergoes a seasonal oscillation, being closer to the coast in the summer than in the winter. A month-long record of surface currents inferred from high-frequency (HF) radar measurements in a roughly 60 km × 80 km region on the WFS off Tampa Bay is also used to compute LCSs, and these also reveal the presence of transient transport barriers. While the HF-radar-derived transport barriers cannot be unambiguously linked to the boundary of the FZ, this analysis does demonstrate the feasibility of monitoring transport barriers on the WFS using a HF-radar-based measurement system. The implications of a persistent cross-shelf transport barrier on the WFS for the development of harmful algal blooms on the shoreward side of the barrier are considered.