External validation of a lung cancer-based prediction model for two-year mortality in esophageal cancer patient cohorts.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE: Chemo-radiotherapy can improve the oncological outcome of esophageal cancer (EC) patients, but may cause long term radiation-induced toxicity, including an increased risk of non-cancer related death. For lung cancer patients, a model to predict 2-year total mortality using mean heart dose (MHD) and gross tumor volume (GTV) has previously been developed and validated. This project aimed to externally validate this model in EC patients. METHODS: Five EC patient cohorts from 3 different Dutch centres were used for model validation. External validity of the model was assessed separately in definitive (n = 170) and neo-adjuvant (n = 568) chemoradiotherapy (dCRT and nCRT) patients. External validity was assessed in terms of calibration by calibration plots, calibration-in-the-large (CITL) and calibration slope (CS), and discrimination by assessment of the c-statistic. If suboptimal model performance was observed, the model was further updated accordingly. RESULTS: For the dCRT patients, good calibration was found after adjustment of the intercept (CITL 0.00; CS 1.08). The c-statistic of the adjusted model was 0.67 (95%CI: 0.58 to 0.75). For nCRT patients the model needed adjustment of both the slope and the intercept because of initial miscalibration in the validation population (CITL 0.00; CS 1.72). After recalibration, the model showed perfect calibration (i.e., CITL 0, CS 1), as is common after recalibration. The c-statistic of the recalibrated model equaled 0.62 (95%CI: 0.57 to 0.67). CONCLUSION: The existing model for 2-year mortality prediction in lung cancer patients, based on the predictive factors MHD and GTV, showed good performance in EC patients after updating the intercept and/or slope of the original model.

Age-related accumulation of Maillard reaction products in human articular cartilage collagen.

Non-enzymic modification of tissue proteins by reducing sugars, the so-called Maillard reaction, is a prominent feature of aging. In articular cartilage, relatively high levels of the advanced glycation end product (AGE) pentosidine accumulate with age. Higher pentosidine levels have been associated with a stiffer collagen network in cartilage. However, even in cartilage, pentosidine levels themselves represent <1 cross-link per 20 collagen molecules, and as such cannot be expected to contribute substantially to the increase in collagen network stiffness. In the present study, we investigated a broad range of Maillard reaction products in cartilage collagen in order to determine whether pentosidine serves as an adequate marker for AGE levels. Not only did the well-characterized AGEs pentosidine, N(epsilon)-(carboxymethyl)lysine, and N(epsilon)-(carboxyethyl)lysine increase with age in cartilage collagen (all P<0.0001), but also general measures of AGE cross-linking, such as browning and fluorescence (both P<0.0001), increased. The levels of these AGEs are all higher in cartilage collagen than in skin collagen. As a functional measure of glycation the digestibility of articular collagen by bacterial collagenase was investigated; digestibility decreased linearly with age, proportional to the extent of glycation. Furthermore, the arginine content and the sum of the hydroxylysine and lysine content of cartilage collagen decrease significantly with age (P<0.0001 and P<0. 01 respectively), possibly due to modification by the Maillard reaction. The observed relationship between glycation and amino acid modification has not been reported previously in vivo. Our present results indicate that extensive accumulation of a variety of Maillard reaction products occurs in cartilage collagen with age. Altogether our results support the hypothesis that glycation contributes to stiffer and more brittle cartilage with advancing age.