RESUMEN
Resumen Introducción: La mortalidad por SARS-COV-2 ha disminuido en diferentes países, pero no se ha evaluado si es igual en Colombia, o si se relaciona con las carac terísticas de los pacientes y tratamientos utilizados. Objetivo: Comparar la mortalidad por SARS-COV-2, en dos periodos de tiempo controlando por factores de riesgo asociados con mortalidad. Metodología: Estudio observacional, basado en una cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes con SARS-COV-2 atendidos en el Hospital Universitario San Ignacio, Bogotá (Colombia), desde el 19 de marzo al 12 de noviembre, 2020. Se comparó la tasa de mortalidad intrahospitalaria de los pacientes egresados antes y después del 21 de agosto de 2020 (primer pico de mortalidad en Colombia) y se analizó el impacto del momento de atención controlando por comorbilidades, severidad al ingreso y tratamiento recibido, usando un modelo de regresión logística. Resultados: 1399 pacientes (944 antes y 455 después del primer pico de mortalidad) fueron analizados. La tasa de mortalidad intrahospitalaria global fue similar en ambos periodos (17.6% vs 16.3%, p=0.539). En el análisis multivariado se encontró que la atención en el segundo periodo de tiempo se asoció a menor mortalidad (OR 0.66 IC95% 0.47; 0.93, p=0.018), a diferencia del aumento de la misma asociado a la edad (OR 1.06 IC95% 1.05; 1.07, p<0.001), sexo masculino (OR 1.84 IC95% 1.33; 2.54 p<0.001), cirrosis (OR 1.89 IC95% 1.24; 2.88, p=0.003), enfermedad renal (OR 1.36 IC95% 1.00; 1.83, p=0.043) y el uso de dexametasona (OR 1.53 IC95% 1.03; 2.28, p=0.031). Conclusiones: La tasa de mortalidad intrahospitalaria se redujo después del 21 de agosto durante la primera ola de la pandemia en Bogotá, posiblemente asociado a la mejoría en la capacidad de respuesta del sistema de salud en ese momento, o a un menor inoculo viral de los pacientes infectados. Estos hallazgos pueden cambiar con la saturación del sistema de salud.
Abstract Introduction: Mortality secondary to SARS-COV 2 has decreases around the world, however this has not been evaluated in Colombia neither has the correlation between patient characteristics or treatments. Objective: To compare the mortality due to SARS-COV-2, in two periods of time, controlling risk factors associated with mortality. Methodology: Observational retrospective cohort study of patients with SARS- COV-2 treated at the San Ignacio University Hospital in Bogotá (Colombia), from March 19 to November 12, 2020. The in-hospital mortality rate of patients discharged before and after August 21, 2020 (surge mortality in Colombia) was com pared. The impact of the moment of attention was analyzed controlled by comorbidities, severity at admission and treatment received using a bivariate and multivariate logistic regression model. Results: 1399 patients (944 before and 455 after August 21) were analyzed. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was similar at both times (17.6%vs16.3percentage, p=0.539). In the multivariate analysis, it was found that the moment of attention was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.66 95% CI0.47;0.93,p=0.018), in contrast to its increase associated with age (OR 1.06 95% CI 1.05;1.07,p=<0.001), male sex (OR 1.84 95%CI 1.33;2.54,p=<0.001), cirrhosis (OR1.89 95%CI 1.24;2.88, p=0.003), kidney disease (OR 1.36 95% CI1.00;1.83,p=0.043) and the use of dexamethasone (OR1.53 95%CI 1.03;2.28,p=0.031). Conclusions: The in-hospital mortality rate fell after August 21 during the first wave of the pandemic in Bogotá-Colombia, possibly associated with an improvement in response capacity, or a lower viral inoculum of infected patients. These findings may change with the saturation of the health system
RESUMEN
The pandemic of SARSCov2 infection has created a challenge in health services worldwide. Some scales have been applied to evaluate the risk of intubation, such as the ROX and HACOR. The objective of this study is to compare the predictive capacity of the HACOR scale and the ROX index and define the optimal cut-off points. Study of diagnostic tests based on a retrospective cohort. Composite outcome was the proportion of patients that needed endotracheal intubation (ETI) or died of COVID19 pneumonia. Discrimination capacity was compared by the area under the curve of each of the two scales and the optimal cut-off point was determined using the Liu method. 245 patients were included, of which 140 (57%) required ETI and 152 (62%) had the composite end result of high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) failure. The discrimination capacity was similar for the two scales with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71 and 0.72 for the HACOR scale for the ROX index, respectively. The optimal cut-off point for the ROX index was 5.6 (sensitivity 62% specificity 65%), while the optimal cut-off point for the HACOR scale was 5.5 (sensitivity 66% specificity 65%). The HACOR scale and the ROX index have a moderate predictive capacity to predict failures to the HFNC strategy. They can be used in conjunction with other clinical variables to define which patients may require invasive mechanical ventilation.
