Hospital segregation, critical care strain, and inpatient mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City.

BACKGROUND: Hospital segregation by race, ethnicity, and health insurance coverage is prevalent, with some hospitals providing a disproportionate share of undercompensated care. We assessed whether New York City (NYC) hospitals serving a higher proportion of Medicaid and uninsured patients pre-pandemic experienced greater critical care strain during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and whether this greater strain was associated with higher rates of in-hospital mortality. METHODS: In a retrospective analysis of all-payer NYC hospital discharge data, we examined changes in admissions, stratified by use of intensive care unit (ICU), from the baseline period in early 2020 to the first COVID-19 wave across hospital quartiles (265,329 admissions), and crude and risk-adjusted inpatient mortality rates, also stratified by ICU use, in the first COVID wave across hospital quartiles (23,032 inpatient deaths), based on the proportion of Medicaid or uninsured admissions from 2017-2019 (quartile 1 lowest to 4 highest). Logistic regressions were used to assess the cross-sectional association between ICU strain, defined as ICU volume in excess of the baseline average, and patient-level mortality. RESULTS: ICU admissions in the first COVID-19 wave were 84%, 97%, 108%, and 123% of the baseline levels by hospital quartile 1-4, respectively. The risk-adjusted mortality rates for ICU admissions were 36.4 (CI = 34.7,38.2), 43.6 (CI = 41.5,45.8), 45.9 (CI = 43.8,48.1), and 45.7 (CI = 43.6,48.0) per 100 admissions, and those for non-ICU admissions were 8.6 (CI = 8.3,9.0), 10.9 (CI = 10.6,11.3), 12.6 (CI = 12.1,13.0), and 12.1 (CI = 11.6,12.7) per 100 admissions by hospital quartile 1-4, respectively. Compared with the reference group of 100% or less of the baseline weekly average, ICU admissions on a day for which the ICU volume was 101-150%, 151-200%, and > 200% of the baseline weekly average had odds ratios of 1.17 (95% CI = 1.10, 1.26), 2.63 (95% CI = 2.31, 3.00), and 3.26 (95% CI = 2.82, 3.78) for inpatient mortality, and non-ICU admissions on a day for which the ICU volume was 101-150%, 151-200%, and > 200% of the baseline weekly average had odds ratios of 1.28 (95% CI = 1.22, 1.34), 2.60 (95% CI = 2.40, 2.82), and 3.44 (95% CI = 3.11, 3.63) for inpatient mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with hospital segregation as a potential driver of COVID-related mortality inequities and highlight the need to desegregate health care to address structural racism, advance health equity, and improve pandemic resiliency.

Direct and indirect mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022.

Excess mortality studies provide crucial information regarding the health burden of pandemics and other large-scale events. Here, we use time series approaches to separate the direct contribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection on mortality from the indirect consequences of the pandemic in the United States. We estimate excess deaths occurring above a seasonal baseline from March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022, stratified by week, state, age, and underlying mortality condition (including COVID-19 and respiratory diseases; Alzheimer's disease; cancer; cerebrovascular diseases; diabetes; heart diseases; and external causes, which include suicides, opioid overdoses, and accidents). Over the study period, we estimate an excess of 1,065,200 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 909,800-1,218,000) all-cause deaths, of which 80% are reflected in official COVID-19 statistics. State-specific excess death estimates are highly correlated with SARS-CoV-2 serology, lending support to our approach. Mortality from 7 of the 8 studied conditions rose during the pandemic, with the exception of cancer. To separate the direct mortality consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection from the indirect effects of the pandemic, we fit generalized additive models (GAM) to age- state- and cause-specific weekly excess mortality, using covariates representing direct (COVID-19 intensity) and indirect pandemic effects (hospital intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy and measures of interventions stringency). We find that 84% (95% CI 65-94%) of all-cause excess mortality can be statistically attributed to the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We also estimate a large direct contribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection (≥67%) on mortality from diabetes, Alzheimer's, heart diseases, and in all-cause mortality among individuals over 65 years. In contrast, indirect effects predominate in mortality from external causes and all-cause mortality among individuals under 44 years, with periods of stricter interventions associated with greater rises in mortality. Overall, on a national scale, the largest consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are attributable to the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections; yet, the secondary impacts dominate among younger age groups and in mortality from external causes. Further research on the drivers of indirect mortality is warranted as more detailed mortality data from this pandemic becomes available.

Direct and indirect mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, March 2020-April 2021.

Excess mortality studies provide crucial information regarding the health burden of pandemics and other large-scale events. Here, we used time series approaches to separate the direct contribution of SARS-CoV-2 infections on mortality from the indirect consequences of pandemic interventions and behavior changes in the United States. We estimated deaths occurring in excess of seasonal baselines stratified by state, age, week and cause (all causes, COVID-19 and respiratory diseases, Alzheimer's disease, cancer, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, heart disease, and external causes, including suicides, opioids, accidents) from March 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021. Our estimates of COVID-19 excess deaths were highly correlated with SARS-CoV-2 serology, lending support to our approach. Over the study period, we estimate an excess of 666,000 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 556000, 774000) all-cause deaths, of which 90% could be attributed to the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 78% were reflected in official COVID-19 statistics. Mortality from all disease conditions rose during the pandemic, except for cancer. The largest direct impacts of the pandemic were seen in mortality from diabetes, Alzheimer's, and heart diseases, and in age groups over 65 years. In contrast, the largest indirect consequences of the pandemic were seen in deaths from external causes, which increased by 45,300 (95% CI 30,800, 59,500) and were statistically linked to the intensity of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Within this category, increases were most pronounced in mortality from accidents and injuries, drug overdoses, and assaults and homicides, while the rate of death from suicides remained stable. Younger age groups suffered the brunt of these indirect effects. Overall, on a national scale, the largest consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are attributable to the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections; yet, the secondary impacts dominate among younger age groups, in periods of stricter interventions, and in mortality from external causes. Further research on the drivers of indirect mortality is warranted to optimize interventions in future pandemics.

Health benefits of first and second extraction drum-dried pitted olive pomace.

Olive pomace (OP) is the main by-product of olive oil extraction. After pit and skin removal, OP pulp has high concentrations of dietary fiber and phenolics with high antioxidant capacity. This study evaluated mice health benefits of drum-dried pitted OP pulp obtained after first and second oil extraction. Fresh OP was steam blanched, then pits and skins separated in a pulper/finisher, and pulp drum-dried and milled. OP was characterized by proximate analysis, total soluble phenolics (TSP), individual phenolics, and dietary fiber. Drum-dried pitted OP from first and second extraction was formulated at 10% and 20% in a high fat mice diet. Low fat (5%) and high fat (18%) control diets were also used for comparison. First extraction OP had higher TSP than OP from second extraction. Hydroxytyrosol was the main phenolic in OP. Mice weight gain was lower for the four OP diets compared to high and low-fat control diets. Fecal protein was high for all OP diets, indicating poor protein retention in mice, possibly by phenolics binding of protein and enzymes. Liver weight and adipose tissue were lower in mice consuming the four high fat OP diets compared to high fat control diet. Also, there was no effect on blood glucose by OP in diets. Mice gut microbiota analysis indicated that Actinobacteria decreased in the OP diets compared to the two control diets while Bacteroidetes increased, indicating a positive correlation with reduced body fat and weight. Drum-dried pitted OP is a novel agricultural by-product with its bioactive compounds having the potential to be incorporated in feeds and foods providing health benefits. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: Drum-dried pitted olive pomace can be produced from first or second olive oil extraction byproducts to be used as a shelf-stable healthy food or feed supplement.

Excess Deaths in Mexico City and New York City During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to August 2020.

Objectives. To estimate all-cause excess deaths in Mexico City (MXC) and New York City (NYC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. We estimated expected deaths among residents of both cities between March 1 and August 29, 2020, using log-linked negative binomial regression and compared these deaths with observed deaths during the same period. We calculated total and age-specific excess deaths and 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Results. There were 259 excess deaths per 100 000 (95% PI = 249, 269) in MXC and 311 (95% PI = 305, 318) in NYC during the study period. The number of excess deaths among individuals 25 to 44 years old was much higher in MXC (77 per 100 000; 95% PI = 69, 80) than in NYC (34 per 100 000; 95% PI = 30, 38). Corresponding estimates among adults 65 years or older were 1263 (95% PI = 1199, 1317) per 100 000 in MXC and 1581 (95% PI = 1549, 1621) per 100 000 in NYC. Conclusions. Overall, excess mortality was higher in NYC than in MXC; however, the excess mortality rate among young adults was higher in MXC. Public Health Implications. Excess all-cause mortality comparisons across populations and age groups may represent a more complete measure of pandemic effects and provide information on mitigation strategies and susceptibility factors. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(10): 1847-1850. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306430).

Population-Based Estimates of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-like Illness, COVID-19 Illness, and Rates of Case Ascertainment, Hospitalizations, and Deaths-Noninstitutionalized New York City Residents, March-April 2020.

Using a population-based, representative telephone survey, ~930 000 New York City residents had COVID-19 illness beginning 20 March-30 April 2020, a period with limited testing. For every 1000 persons estimated with COVID-19 illness, 141.8 were tested and reported as cases, 36.8 were hospitalized, and 12.8 died, varying by demographic characteristics.

Treatment of Refractory Convulsive Status Epilepticus: A Comprehensive Review by the American Epilepsy Society Treatments Committee.

PURPOSE: Established tonic-clonic status epilepticus (SE) does not stop in one-third of patients when treated with an intravenous (IV) benzodiazepine bolus followed by a loading dose of a second antiseizure medication (ASM). These patients have refractory status epilepticus (RSE) and a high risk of morbidity and death. For patients with convulsive refractory status epilepticus (CRSE), we sought to determine the strength of evidence for 8 parenteral ASMs used as third-line treatment in stopping clinical CRSE. METHODS: A structured literature search (MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, CINAHL) was performed to identify original studies on the treatment of CRSE in children and adults using IV brivaracetam, ketamine, lacosamide, levetiracetam (LEV), midazolam (MDZ), pentobarbital (PTB; and thiopental), propofol (PRO), and valproic acid (VPA). Adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), corticosteroids, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg), magnesium sulfate, and pyridoxine were added to determine the effectiveness in treating hard-to-control seizures in special circumstances. Studies were evaluated by predefined criteria and were classified by strength of evidence in stopping clinical CRSE (either as the last ASM added or compared to another ASM) according to the 2017 American Academy of Neurology process. RESULTS: No studies exist on the use of ACTH, corticosteroids, or IVIg for the treatment of CRSE. Small series and case reports exist on the use of these agents in the treatment of RSE of suspected immune etiology, severe epileptic encephalopathies, and rare epilepsy syndromes. For adults with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists on the effectiveness of brivaracetam (level U; 4 class IV studies). For children and adults with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists on the effectiveness of ketamine (level U; 25 class IV studies). For children and adults with CRSE, it is possible that lacosamide is effective at stopping RSE (level C; 2 class III, 14 class IV studies). For children with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists that LEV and VPA are equally effective (level U, 1 class III study). For adults with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists to support the effectiveness of LEV (level U; 2 class IV studies). Magnesium sulfate may be effective in the treatment of eclampsia, but there are only case reports of its use for CRSE. For children with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists to support either that MDZ and diazepam infusions are equally effective (level U; 1 class III study) or that MDZ infusion and PTB are equally effective (level U; 1 class III study). For adults with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists to support either that MDZ infusion and PRO are equally effective (level U; 1 class III study) or that low-dose and high-dose MDZ infusions are equally effective (level U; 1 class III study). For children and adults with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists to support that MDZ is effective as the last drug added (level U; 29 class IV studies). For adults with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists to support that PTB and PRO are equally effective (level U; 1 class III study). For adults and children with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists to support that PTB is effective as the last ASM added (level U; 42 class IV studies). For CRSE, insufficient evidence exists to support that PRO is effective as the last ASM used (level U; 26 class IV studies). No pediatric-only studies exist on the use of PRO for CRSE, and many guidelines do not recommend its use in children aged <16 years. Pyridoxine-dependent and pyridoxine-responsive epilepsies should be considered in children presenting between birth and age 3 years with refractory seizures and no imaging lesion or other acquired cause of seizures. For children with CRSE, insufficient evidence exists that VPA and diazepam infusion are equally effective (level U, 1 class III study). No class I to III studies have been reported in adults treated with VPA for CRSE. In comparison, for children and adults with established convulsive SE (ie, not RSE), after an initial benzodiazepine, it is likely that loading doses of LEV 60 mg/kg, VPA 40 mg/kg, and fosphenytoin 20 mg PE/kg are equally effective at stopping SE (level B, 1 class I study). CONCLUSIONS: Mostly insufficient evidence exists on the efficacy of stopping clinical CRSE using brivaracetam, lacosamide, LEV, valproate, ketamine, MDZ, PTB, and PRO either as the last ASM or compared to others of these drugs. Adrenocorticotropic hormone, IVIg, corticosteroids, magnesium sulfate, and pyridoxine have been used in special situations but have not been studied for CRSE. For the treatment of established convulsive SE (ie, not RSE), LEV, VPA, and fosphenytoin are likely equally effective, but whether this is also true for CRSE is unknown. Triple-masked, randomized controlled trials are needed to compare the effectiveness of parenteral anesthetizing and nonanesthetizing ASMs in the treatment of CRSE.

Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City.

Prediction skill is a key test of models for epidemic dynamics. However, future validation of models against out-of-sample data is rare, partly because of a lack of timely surveillance data. We address this gap by analyzing the response of rotavirus dynamics to infant vaccination. Syndromic surveillance of emergency department visits for diarrhea in New York City reveals a marked decline in diarrheal incidence among infants and young children, in line with data on rotavirus-coded hospitalizations and laboratory-confirmed cases, and a shift from annual to biennial epidemics increasingly affecting older children and adults. A published mechanistic model qualitatively predicted these patterns more than 2 years in advance. Future efforts to increase vaccination coverage may disrupt these patterns and lead to further declines in the incidence of rotavirus-attributable gastroenteritis.

Phenolics and Antioxidant Capacity of Pitted Olive Pomace Affected by Three Drying Technologies.

This study investigated drum-drying's ability to produce dried food-grade olive pomace as a potential food ingredient that is more nutritionally dense than its freeze-dried and hot-air dried counterparts. The pits and skin were removed from fresh olive pomace, and the remaining pulp was dried to <5% moisture through freeze-drying, hot-air drying, and drum-drying at two rotational speeds. The drying treatments had no significant (P ≤ 0.05) effect on the olive pomace's fat or dietary fiber contents but did increase the L* , a* , and b* color parameter values. Although all the drying treatments significantly (P ≤ 0.05) decreased the fresh olive pomace's antioxidant capacity, drum-drying preserved the olive pomace's antioxidant capacity significantly (P ≤ 0.05) better than freeze-drying and hot-air drying. The drum-dried samples had concentrations of caffeic acid and verbascoside that were significantly (P ≤ 0.05) higher than the other dried pomace samples and were not significantly (P ≤ 0.05) different from the fresh pomace. The drum-dried olive pomace contained concentrations of hydroxytyrosol, tyrosol, vanillic acid, luteolin-7-glucoside, and rutin that were not significantly (P ≤ 0.05) different from the dried sample with the highest concentration of each respective phenolic compound. No oleuropein was found in the fresh or dried olive pomace. The results of this study show that drum-drying is an energy efficient method for converting olive pomace into a stable food-grade supplement that preserves its high phenolic, antioxidant, and dietary fiber contents to potentially benefit human health when incorporated into food or supplement products. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: Pitting and drying converts the olive pomace into a stable form that is free of physical hazards and could be incorporated into food products to increase their nutritional quality through olive pomaces' high fiber, antioxidant, and phenolic contents. Drum-drying allows food-grade olive pomace to retain higher amounts of beneficial soluble phenolics and a higher antioxidant capacity than conventional drying methods, thus furthering olive pomace's potential valorization as a food ingredient.

Layer-by-Layer Alginate and Fungal Chitosan Based Edible Coatings Applied to Fruit Bars.

Food waste is currently being generated at an increasing rate. One proposed solution would be to convert it to biopolymers for industrial applications. We recovered chitin from mushroom waste and converted it to chitosan to produce edible coatings. We then used layer-by-layer (LbL) electrostatic deposition of the polycation chitosan and the polyanion alginate to coat fruit bars enriched with ascorbic acid. The performance of the LbL coatings was compared with those containing single layers of fungal chitosan, animal origin chitosan and alginate. Bars containing alginate-chitosan LbL coatings showed increased ascorbic acid content, antioxidant capacity, firmness and fungal growth prevention during storage. Also, the origin of the chitosan did not affect the properties of the coatings. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: Mushroom stalk bases could be an alternative source for isolating chitosan with similar properties to animal-based chitosan. Also, layer-by-layer assembly is a cheap, simple method that can improve the quality and safety of fruit bars.

Forecasting Influenza Outbreaks in Boroughs and Neighborhoods of New York City.

The ideal spatial scale, or granularity, at which infectious disease incidence should be monitored and forecast has been little explored. By identifying the optimal granularity for a given disease and host population, and matching surveillance and prediction efforts to this scale, response to emergent and recurrent outbreaks can be improved. Here we explore how granularity and representation of spatial structure affect influenza forecast accuracy within New York City. We develop network models at the borough and neighborhood levels, and use them in conjunction with surveillance data and a data assimilation method to forecast influenza activity. These forecasts are compared to an alternate system that predicts influenza for each borough or neighborhood in isolation. At the borough scale, influenza epidemics are highly synchronous despite substantial differences in intensity, and inclusion of network connectivity among boroughs generally improves forecast accuracy. At the neighborhood scale, we observe much greater spatial heterogeneity among influenza outbreaks including substantial differences in local outbreak timing and structure; however, inclusion of the network model structure generally degrades forecast accuracy. One notable exception is that local outbreak onset, particularly when signal is modest, is better predicted with the network model. These findings suggest that observation and forecast at sub-municipal scales within New York City provides richer, more discriminant information on influenza incidence, particularly at the neighborhood scale where greater heterogeneity exists, and that the spatial spread of influenza among localities can be forecast.

Temporal and Spatial Patterns in Utilization of Mental Health Services During and After Hurricane Sandy: Emergency Department and Inpatient Hospitalizations in New York City.

OBJECTIVE: Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, causing a coastal storm surge and extensive flooding, which led to the closure of several health care facilities in New York City (NYC) and prolonged interruptions in service delivery. The impact on mental health-related emergency department (ED) and inpatient hospital service utilization was studied. METHODS: Data came from the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. We obtained mental health-related data among NYC residents from 2010 to 2013. Patients were grouped into 5 geographic areas, including service areas of closed hospitals, the Hurricane Sandy evaluation zone, and all of NYC. The Farrington method was used to detect increases in ED visits and hospitalizations for the post-Sandy period. RESULTS: Open hospitals experienced a substantial increase in psychiatric ED visits from patients living in the service areas of closed hospitals. This surge in psychiatric ED visits persisted for 4 to 6 months after Hurricane Sandy. However, the increase in psychiatric hospitalizations was observed for 1 to 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Several NYC hospitals received a substantially larger number of ED patients from service areas of closed hospitals after Hurricane Sandy, unlike other hospitals that experienced a decrease. Because of potential surges in the number of psychiatric ED visits, resource allocation to hospitals should be considered. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:512-517).

Spatial Shift in the Utilization of Mental Health Services After Hurricane Sandy Among New York City Residents Enrolled in Medicaid.

OBJECTIVE: Closure of several New York City (NYC) hospitals after Hurricane Sandy caused an unanticipated, extended surge in patient demand at open hospitals. This study identified hospitals with a significant increase in mental-health-related emergency department, inpatient, and outpatient visits from Medicaid patients displaced by Hurricane Sandy. METHODS: NYC Medicaid patients were classified into non-mutually-exclusive geographic categories corresponding to residence in areas served by Bellevue Hospital Center and Coney Island Hospital, the hurricane impact area, and all of NYC. For each geographic region, we compared the observed to the expected number of service visits in the 6 months after the storm. The expected number of visits was calculated from 2-year trends in mental health claims. RESULTS: Twenty-four facilities in all 5 NYC boroughs experienced patient redistribution from storm-affected areas. Eighteen facilities had a concurrent surge in total Medicaid patients, which suggested that redistribution had a greater impact on resource use at these locations. CONCLUSIONS: The redistribution of Medicaid patients after Hurricane Sandy increased mental health service utilization at facilities not near flooded areas. Our findings can aid in surge capacity planning and thereby improve the continuity of mental health care after a natural disaster. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:420-427).

Cell culture media impact on drug product solution stability.

To enable subcutaneous administration of monoclonal antibodies, drug product solutions are often needed at high concentrations. A significant risk associated with high drug product concentrations is an increase in aggregate level over the shelf-life dating period. While much work has been done to understand the impact of drug product formulation on aggregation, there is limited understanding of the link between cell culture process conditions and soluble aggregate growth in drug product. During cell culture process development, soluble aggregates are often measured at harvest using cell-free material purified by Protein A chromatography. In the work reported here, cell culture media components were evaluated with respect to their impact on aggregate levels in high concentration solution drug product during accelerated stability studies. Two components, cysteine and ferric ammonium citrate, were found to impact aggregate growth rates in our current media (version 1) leading to the development of new chemically defined media and concentrated feed formulations. The new version of media and associated concentrated feeds (version 2) were evaluated across four cell lines producing recombinant IgG4 monoclonal antibodies and a bispecific antibody. In all four cell lines, the version 2 media reduced aggregate growth over the course of a 12 week accelerated stability study compared with the version 1 media, although the degree to which aggregate growth decreased was cell line dependent. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:998-1008, 2016.

Chemically defined media modifications to lower tryptophan oxidation of biopharmaceuticals.

Oxidation of biopharmaceuticals is a major product quality issue with potential impacts on activity and immunogenicity. At Eli Lilly and Company, high tryptophan oxidation was observed for two biopharmaceuticals in development produced in Chinese hamster ovary cells. A switch from historical hydrolysate-containing media to chemically defined media with a reformulated basal powder was thought to be responsible, so mitigation efforts focused on media modification. Shake flask studies identified that increasing tryptophan, copper, and manganese and decreasing cysteine concentrations were individual approaches to lower tryptophan oxidation. When amino acid and metal changes were combined, the modified formulation had a synergistic impact that led to substantially less tryptophan oxidation for both biopharmaceuticals. Similar results were achieved in shake flasks and benchtop bioreactors, demonstrating the potential to implement these modifications at manufacturing scale. The modified formulation did not negatively impact cell growth and viability, product titer, purity, charge variants, or glycan profile. A potential mechanism of action is presented for each amino acid or metal factor based on its role in oxidation chemistry. This work served not only to mitigate the tryptophan oxidation issue in two Lilly biopharmaceuticals in development, but also to increase our knowledge and appreciation for the impact of media components on product quality.

Estimating the hospitalization burden associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in New York City, 2003-2011.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization burden associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is uncertain due to ambiguity in the inference methodologies employed for its estimation. OBJECTIVES: Utilization of a new method to quantitate the above burden. METHODS: Weekly hospitalization rates for several principal diagnoses from 2003 to 2011 in New York City by age group were regressed linearly against incidence proxies for the major influenza subtypes and RSV adjusting for temporal trends and seasonal baselines. RESULTS: Average annual rates of influenza-associated respiratory hospitalizations per 100 000 were estimated to be 129 [95% CI (79, 179)] for age <1, 36·3 (21·6, 51·4) for ages 1-4, 10·6 (7·5, 13·7) for ages 5-17, 25·6 (21·3, 29·8) for ages 18-49, 65·5 (54·0, 76·9) for ages 50-64, 125 (105, 147) for ages 65-74, and 288 (244, 331) for ages ≥75. Additionally, influenza had a significant contribution to hospitalization rates with a principal diagnosis of septicemia for ages 5-17 [0·76 (0·1, 1·4)], 18-49 [1·02 (0·3, 1·7)], 50-64 [4·0 (1·7, 6·3)], 65-74 [8·8 (2·2, 15·6)], and ≥75 [38·7 (25·7, 52·9)]. RSV had a significant contribution to the rates of respiratory hospitalizations for age <1 [1900 (1740, 2060)], ages 1-4 [117 (70, 167)], and ≥75 [175 (44, 312)] [including chronic lower respiratory disease, 90 (43, 140)] as well as pneumonia & influenza hospitalizations for ages 18-49 [6·2 (1·1, 11·3)] and circulatory hospitalizations for ages ≥75 [199 (13, 375)]. CONCLUSIONS: The high burden of RSV hospitalizations among young children and seniors age ≥75 suggests the need for additional control measures such as vaccination to mitigate the impact of annual RSV epidemics. Our estimates for influenza-associated hospitalizations provide further evidence of the burden of morbidity associated with influenza, supporting current guidelines regarding influenza vaccination and antiviral treatment.

Enhancing disease surveillance with novel data streams: challenges and opportunities.

Novel data streams (NDS), such as web search data or social media updates, hold promise for enhancing the capabilities of public health surveillance. In this paper, we outline a conceptual framework for integrating NDS into current public health surveillance. Our approach focuses on two key questions: What are the opportunities for using NDS and what are the minimal tests of validity and utility that must be applied when using NDS? Identifying these opportunities will necessitate the involvement of public health authorities and an appreciation of the diversity of objectives and scales across agencies at different levels (local, state, national, international). We present the case that clearly articulating surveillance objectives and systematically evaluating NDS and comparing the performance of NDS to existing surveillance data and alternative NDS data is critical and has not sufficiently been addressed in many applications of NDS currently in the literature.

Demonstrating the use of high-volume electronic medical claims data to monitor local and regional influenza activity in the US.

INTRODUCTION: Fine-grained influenza surveillance data are lacking in the US, hampering our ability to monitor disease spread at a local scale. Here we evaluate the performances of high-volume electronic medical claims data to assess local and regional influenza activity. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We used electronic medical claims data compiled by IMS Health in 480 US locations to create weekly regional influenza-like-illness (ILI) time series during 2003-2010. IMS Health captured 62% of US outpatient visits in 2009. We studied the performances of IMS-ILI indicators against reference influenza surveillance datasets, including CDC-ILI outpatient and laboratory-confirmed influenza data. We estimated correlation in weekly incidences, peak timing and seasonal intensity across datasets, stratified by 10 regions and four age groups (<5, 5-29, 30-59, and 60+ years). To test IMS-Health performances at the city level, we compared IMS-ILI indicators to syndromic surveillance data for New York City. We also used control data on laboratory-confirmed Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) activity to test the specificity of IMS-ILI for influenza surveillance. RESULTS: Regional IMS-ILI indicators were highly synchronous with CDC's reference influenza surveillance data (Pearson correlation coefficients rho≥0.89; range across regions, 0.80-0.97, P<0.001). Seasonal intensity estimates were weakly correlated across datasets in all age data (rho≤0.52), moderately correlated among adults (rho≥0.64) and uncorrelated among school-age children. IMS-ILI indicators were more correlated with reference influenza data than control RSV indicators (rho = 0.93 with influenza v. rho = 0.33 with RSV, P<0.05). City-level IMS-ILI indicators were highly consistent with reference syndromic data (rho≥0.86). CONCLUSION: Medical claims-based ILI indicators accurately capture weekly fluctuations in influenza activity in all US regions during inter-pandemic and pandemic seasons, and can be broken down by age groups and fine geographical areas. Medical claims data provide more reliable and fine-grained indicators of influenza activity than other high-volume electronic algorithms and should be used to augment existing influenza surveillance systems.

Technical Description of the Distribute Project: A Community-based Syndromic Surveillance System Implementation.

This paper describes the design of a syndromic surveillance system implemented for community-based monitoring of influenza-like illness. The system began as collaboration between colleagues from state and large metropolitan area health jurisdictions, academic institutions, and the non-profit, International Society for Disease Surveillance. Over the six influenza seasons from 2006 to 2012, the system was automated and enhanced, with new features and infrastructure, and the resulting, reliable, enterprise grade system supported peer comparisons between 44 state and local public health jurisdictions who voluntarily contributed summarized data on influenza-like illness and gastrointestinal syndromes. The system was unusual in that it addressed the needs of a widely distributed, voluntary, community engaged in real-time data integration to support operational public health.