Prognostic performance of ECG abnormalities compared to vital signs in acutely ill patients in a resource-poor hospital in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: There are few reports of electrocardiogram (ECG) findings and their prognostic value in acutely ill patients admitted to low resource hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We undertook an observational study of acutely ill medical patients admitted to a low-resource hospital in Uganda. Vital signs were used to calculate the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and all ECGs were assessed using Tan et al.'s scoring system as described in Clin Cardiol 2009;32:82-86. RESULTS: There were 1361 ECGs performed, covering 68% of all acutely ill medical patients admitted to the hospital during the study. The most common ECG abnormality was a prolonged QTc interval (42% of all patients) and left ventricular hypertrophy (13.5%). Compared to the 519 patients (38%) with no Tan score abnormality, the 842 (62%) patients with one or more abnormalities were more likely to die in hospital (OR = 2.82; CI95% = 1.50-5.36) and within 30 days of discharge (OR = 2.46; CI95% = 1.50-4.08). There was no relationship between age and mortality; however, after adjustment by logistic regression, any NEWS ≥1 on admission, a Tan score of ≥1, and male sex all remained clinically significant predictors of both in-hospital and 30-day mortality. DISCUSSION: The majority of acutely ill medical patients admitted in a low-resource hospital in sub-Saharan Africa had ECG abnormalities, of which prolonged QTc and left ventricular hypertrophy were most common. Those with any Tan score abnormality were twice as likely to die as those without an abnormality.

Prognostic performance of ECG abnormalities compared to vital signs in acutely ill patients in a resource-poor hospital in Uganda

Background There are few reports of electrocardiogram (ECG) findings and their prognostic value in acutely ill patients admitted to low resource hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa.Methods:We undertook an observational study of acutely ill medical patients admitted to a low-resource hospital in Uganda. Vital signs were used to calculate the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and all ECGs were assessed using Tan et al.'s scoring system as described in Clin Cardiol 2009;32:82­86.Results There were 1361 ECGs performed, covering 68% of all acutely ill medical patients admitted to the hospital during the study. The most common ECG abnormality was a prolonged QTc interval (42% of all patients) and left ventricular hypertrophy (13.5%). Compared to the 519 patients (38%) with no Tan score abnormality, the 842 (62%) patients with one or more abnormalities were more likely to die in hospital (OR = 2.82; CI95% = 1.50­5.36) and within 30 days of discharge (OR = 2.46; CI95% = 1.50­4.08). There was no relationship between age and mortality; however, after adjustment by logistic regression, any NEWS ≥1 on admission, a Tan score of ≥1, and male sex all remained clinically significant predictors of both in-hospital and 30-day mortality.Discussion:The majority of acutely ill medical patients admitted in a low-resource hospital in sub-Saharan Africa had ECG abnormalities, of which prolonged QTc and left ventricular hypertrophy were most common. Those with any Tan score abnormality were twice as likely to die as those without an abnormality

QRS voltage is a predictor of in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients.

BACKGROUND: Low QRS voltage has been shown to be associated with increased mortality in the general population and in a small pilot study the combined QRS voltage of ECG leads I and II was found to be associated with in-hospital mortality. HYPOTHESIS: Confirm that low QRS voltage predicts the in-hospital mortality of acutely ill patients, and compare QRS voltage with other predictors of mortality that can be easily, quickly and cheaply obtained at the bedside. METHODS: Prospective observational study of vital signs, QRS voltage and simple tools used to assess mental, functional and nutritional status at the bedside in unselected acutely ill patients admitted to a resource-poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Out of 1486 patients, 77 died (5.2%) in hospital. A combined lead I + II voltage <1.8 mV was present in 789 (53.1%) of patients, and significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 3.6, 95% CI 2.0-6.5, χ2 21.2, P < 0.00001). On logistic regression impaired mobility, the National Early Warning Score, male gender and lead I + II voltage were the only independent predictors of mortality. None of the 445 patients who were mobile on admission with a lead I + II voltage ≥ 1.8 mV died in hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Low QRS voltage, male gender, NEWS, and impaired mobility were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in the study population. These four variables, which are easily obtained at the bedside, could potentially provide a rapid, easy, and cheap risk stratification system.

The prediction of in-hospital mortality by mid-upper arm circumference: a prospective observational study of the association between mid-upper arm circumference and the outcome of acutely ill medical patients admitted to a resource-poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa.

There are few reports of the association of nutritional status with in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients in sub-Saharan Africa. This is a prospective observational study comparing the predictive value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of 899 acutely ill medical patients admitted to a resource-poor sub-Saharan hospital with mental alertness, mobility and vital signs. Mid-upper arm circumference ranged from 15 cm to 42 cm, and 12 (24%) of the 50 patients with a MUAC less than 20 cm died (OR 4.84, 95% CI 2.23-10.37). Of the 237 patients with a MUAC more than 28 cm only six (2.5%) died (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10-0.67). On logistic regression, the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), alertness, mobility and MUAC were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Mid-upper arm circumference is an independent predictor of the in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients in a resource-poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa.

Derivation and validation of a universal vital assessment (UVA) score: a tool for predicting mortality in adult hospitalised patients in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Critical illness is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Identifying patients with the highest risk of death could help with resource allocation and clinical decision making. Accordingly, we derived and validated a universal vital assessment (UVA) score for use in SSA. METHODS: We pooled data from hospital-based cohort studies conducted in six countries in SSA spanning the years 2009-2015. We derived and internally validated a UVA score using decision trees and linear regression and compared its performance with the modified early warning score (MEWS) and the quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score. RESULTS: Of 5573 patients included in the analysis, 2829 (50.8%) were female, the median (IQR) age was 36 (27-49) years, 2122 (38.1%) were HIV-infected and 996 (17.3%) died in-hospital. The UVA score included points for temperature, heart and respiratory rates, systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation, Glasgow Coma Scale score and HIV serostatus, and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.79), which outperformed MEWS (AUC 0.70 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.71)) and qSOFA (AUC 0.69 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.72)). CONCLUSION: We identified predictors of in-hospital mortality irrespective of the underlying condition(s) in a large population of hospitalised patients in SSA and derived and internally validated a UVA score to assist clinicians in risk-stratifying patients for in-hospital mortality. The UVA score could help improve patient triage in resource-limited environments and serve as a standard for mortality risk in future studies.

How Well Are Pulses Measured? Practice-Based Evidence from an Observational Study of Acutely Ill Medical Patients During Hospital Admission.

BACKGROUND: Although taking a radial pulse is considered to be an essential clinical skill, there have been few reports on how well it is measured in clinical practice, and how its accuracy and precision are influenced by rate, rhythm, and blood pressure. METHODS: This study is a retrospective quality audit carried out as part of a larger ongoing prospective observational trial. The radial pulse rates recorded by 2 research nurses were compared with the electrocardiogram (ECG) heart rates measured on acutely ill medical patients during their admission to a resource-poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: There were 619 ECGs performed on 231 patients while they were in the hospital. The median interval between measuring the vital signs and obtaining an ECG was 12.6 minutes (mean 62.3, SD 104.3 minutes). The correlation coefficient between the pulse rate recorded and ECG heart rate was 0.54. The bias between the pulse rate and the ECG heart rate was 1.34, SD 13.51 beats per minute (ie, limits of agreement 26.5 beats per minute). Bias and variance were not influenced by blood and pulse pressure. However, tachycardia increased the variance and was the only independent predictor of a pulse deficit (odds ratio 2.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.51; chi-squared 17.21; P < .0001). CONCLUSION: Practice-based evidence shows that in acutely ill patients, there is a poor correlation between the radial pulse and the ECG heart rate, and that tachycardia increases the variance and is the only independent predictor of a pulse deficit.

The alertness, gait and mortality of severely ill patients at two months after admission to a resource poor sub-Saharan hospital--Why is post-discharge surveillance not routine everywhere?

BACKGROUND: Mortality, the first level of the first tier of the Outcomes Measures Hierarchy used to assess the value of health care, is the only hospital outcome usually measured. Gait and alertness after discharge are important to patients; they capture much of the second level of the first tier of the hierarchy, and are required to more fully assess the benefits, value and quality of care. AIM: To assess the alertness, gait and mortality of severely ill patients at two months after admission to a resource poor sub-Saharan hospital. METHODS: 193 severely ill patients admitted to a Ugandan hospital were followed up for up to 60 days. RESULTS: 34% of patients died, 52% were alert and calm with a stable independent gait, 2% had an unstable gait, 6% were bedridden and 7% were lost to follow-up within 60 days of admission: 7.4% of patients discharged alert with a stable gait died within 30 days and 13.9% within 60 days; 26.9% of patients discharged without a stable gait died within 60 days. Sixty day mortality was 5% if patients had a stable independent gait on admission, 25% if they had an unstable gait or needed help to walk, and 50% if they were bedridden. Simple logistic regression models based on cheap easily available data predicted 30 day mortality, alertness and gait (c statistic of both models 0.89 SE 0.03). CONCLUSION: In a resource poor setting gait and alertness assessments are of prognostic value, and practical and informative methods of patient follow-up.

The mortality of acutely ill medical patients for up to 60days after admission to a resource poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa compared with patients of similar illness severity admitted to a Danish Regional Teaching Hospital--an exploratory observational study.

BACKGROUND: The outcomes of patients with the same severity of illness in the developed and developing countries have not been compared. Illness severity can now be measured anywhere by the National Early Warning Score (NEWS). METHODS: An exploratory observational study that compared the 7, 30 and 60 days mortality of 195 Ugandan and 588 Danish acutely ill medical patients that had a NEWS >6 at the time of their admission to the hospital. The association of vital sign changes, alertness and mobility at admission on subsequent outcome was explored. RESULTS: More Kitovu (34.4%) than Danish patients (22.1%) died within 60 days of admission (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.27-2.71, p 0.001). However, the survival of non-comatose patients admitted without severely deranged vital signs or who were able to stand without help was identical in both cohorts (Chi square 0.32, p 0.57): these patients made up 50% of all Ugandan and 60% of all Danish patients. In contrast the survival curves of patients admitted in a coma were widely divergent within a week of hospital admission and remained so for a further 60 days (Chi square 10.29, p 0.001). CONCLUSION: This small hypothesis generating observational study with huge selection and treatment bias found no survival difference at 60 days after admission to resource rich and resource poor hospitals for patients without severely deranged vital signs or who were able to stand without help.

In-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients admitted to a resource poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa and to a Canadian regional hospital compared using the abbreviated VitalPAC Early Warning Score.

BACKGROUND: the development of validated early warning scores that only require the measurement of vital signs at the bedside has provided for the first time a practical and affordable method of comparing the outcomes of similar patients admitted to hospital in the developed and developing world. METHODS: we compared the outcomes of patients with the same abbreviated version of the VitalPAC early warning score at the time of hospital admission in a Canadian and Ugandan hospital. 844 acutely ill medical patients admitted to Kitovu Hospital, Masaka, Uganda and 48,696 patients admitted to the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre (TBRHSC), Ontario, Canada were examined. RESULTS: apart from those patients with an abbreviated ViEWS value of 10 there was no statistically significant difference in the in-hospital mortality of Kitvou and TBRHSC patients with the same score on admission. Using arbitrary ranges of the abbreviated ViEWS the 30day Kaplan-Meier survival curves of Kitovu patients were either the same or better than those of TBRHSC patients. CONCLUSION: the in-hospital mortality of patients with the same abbreviated ViEWS on hospital admission is similar in TBRHSC and Kitovu Hospital.

Validation of the VitalPAC™ Early Warning Score (ViEWS) in acutely ill medical patients attending a resource-poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The VitalPAC™ Early Warning Score (ViEWS) has an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for death of acute unselected medical patients within 24h of 88% and the UK National Early Warning Scores is based on it. The score's discrimination has been validated on patients in the developed world, but nothing is known of its performance in resource-poor hospitals. METHODS: ViEWS was validated in 844 acutely ill medical patients admitted to Kitovu Hospital, Masaka, Uganda. RESULTS: The AUROC for death within 24h of admission was 88.6% (95% CI 82.5-94.7%). The inability to walk without help was found to be an additional independent predictor of in-hospital mortality, and ViEWS modified to include it had an AUROC for death within 24h of 91.9% (95% CI 86.5-97.2%). CONCLUSION: The discrimination of ViEWS in a resource poor sub-Saharan Africa hospital is the same as in the developed world. Inability to walk without help was found to be an additional independent predictor of mortality.