Identification of type 1 diabetes risk phenotypes using an outcome-guided clustering analysis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Although statistical models for predicting type 1 diabetes risk have been developed, approaches that reveal the heterogeneity of the at-risk population by identifying clinically meaningful clusters are lacking. We aimed to identify and characterise clusters of islet autoantibody-positive individuals who share similar characteristics and type 1 diabetes risk. METHODS: We tested a novel outcome-guided clustering method in initially non-diabetic autoantibody-positive relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes, using the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study data (n=1123). The outcome of the analysis was the time to development of type 1 diabetes, and variables in the model included demographic characteristics, genetics, metabolic factors and islet autoantibodies. An independent dataset (the Diabetes Prevention Trial of Type 1 Diabetes Study) (n=706) was used for validation. RESULTS: The analysis revealed six clusters with varying type 1 diabetes risks, categorised into three groups based on the hierarchy of clusters. Group A comprised one cluster with high glucose levels (median for glucose mean AUC 9.48 mmol/l; IQR 9.16-10.02) and high risk (2-year diabetes-free survival probability 0.42; 95% CI 0.34, 0.51). Group B comprised one cluster with high IA-2A titres (median 287 DK units/ml; IQR 250-319) and elevated autoantibody titres (2-year diabetes-free survival probability 0.73; 95% CI 0.67, 0.80). Group C comprised four lower-risk clusters with lower autoantibody titres and glucose levels (with 2-year diabetes-free survival probability ranging from 0.84-0.99 in the four clusters). Within group C, the clusters exhibit variations in characteristics such as glucose levels, C-peptide levels and age. A decision rule for assigning individuals to clusters was developed. Use of the validation dataset confirmed that the clusters can identify individuals with similar characteristics. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Demographic, metabolic, immunological and genetic markers may be used to identify clusters of distinctive characteristics and different risks of progression to type 1 diabetes among autoantibody-positive individuals with a family history of type 1 diabetes. The results also revealed the heterogeneity in the population and complex interactions between variables.

Protocol for the Australian Type 1 Diabetes National Screening Pilot: Assessing the feasibility and acceptability of three general population screening models in children.

AIM: One third of Australian children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes present with life-threatening diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at diagnosis. Screening for early-stage, presymptomatic type 1 diabetes, with ongoing follow-up, can substantially reduce this risk (<5% risk). Several screening models are being trialled internationally, without consensus on the optimal approach. This pilot study aims to assess three models for a routine, population-wide screening programme in Australia. METHODS: An implementation science-guided pilot study to evaluate the feasibility, acceptability and costs of three screening models in children will be conducted between July 2022 and June 2024. These models are as follows: (1) Genetic risk-stratified screening using newborn heel prick dried bloodspots, followed by autoantibody testing from 11 months of age; (2) genetic risk-stratified screening of infant (6-12 months) saliva followed by autoantibody testing from 10 months of age; and (3) autoantibody screening using capillary dried bloodspots collected from children aged 2, 6 or 10 years. Cohorts for each model will be recruited from targeted geographic areas across Australia involving ≥2 states per cohort, with a recruitment target of up to 3000 children per cohort (total up to 9000 children). The primary outcome is screening uptake for each cohort. Secondary outcomes include programme feasibility, costs, parental anxiety, risk perception, satisfaction, well-being and quality of life, and health professional attitudes and satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot is the first direct comparison of three screening implementation models for general population screening. Findings will provide evidence to inform a potential national screening programme for Australian children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12622000381785.

Colorectal cancer risk stratification using a polygenic risk score in symptomatic primary care patients-a UK Biobank retrospective cohort study.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Accurate cancer risk assessment approaches could increase rates of early CRC diagnosis, improve health outcomes for patients and reduce pressure on diagnostic services. The faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for blood in stool is widely used in primary care to identify symptomatic patients with likely CRC. However, there is a 6-16% noncompliance rate with FIT in clinic and ~90% of patients over the symptomatic 10 µg/g test threshold do not have CRC. A polygenic risk score (PRS) quantifies an individual's genetic risk of a condition based on many common variants. Existing PRS for CRC have so far been used to stratify asymptomatic populations. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 50,387 UK Biobank participants with a CRC symptom in their primary care record at age 40+. A PRS based on 201 variants, 5 genetic principal components and 22 other risk factors and markers for CRC were assessed for association with CRC diagnosis within 2 years of first symptom presentation using logistic regression. Associated variables were included in an integrated risk model and trained in 80% of the cohort to predict CRC diagnosis within 2 years. An integrated risk model combining PRS, age, sex, and patient-reported symptoms was predictive of CRC development in a testing cohort (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve, ROCAUC: 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.81). This model has the potential to improve early diagnosis of CRC, particularly in cases of patient noncompliance with FIT.

The Human Pancreas in Type 1 Diabetes: Lessons Learned from the Network of Pancreatic Organ Donors with Diabetes.

The Network for Pancreatic Organ Donors with Diabetes (nPOD) has helped shape the contemporary understanding of type 1 diabetes (T1D) pathogenesis in humans through the procurement, distribution to scientists, and collaborative study of human pancreata and disease-related tissues from organ donors with T1D and islet autoantibody positivity. Since its inception in 2007, nPOD has collected tissues from 600 donors, and these resources have been distributed across 22 countries to more than 290 projects, resulting in nearly 350 publications. Research projects supported by nPOD span the breadth of diabetes research, including studies on T1D immunology and ß-cell biology, and have uniquely unveiled abnormalities in other pancreatic cell types. In this article, we will detail the history and programmatic features of nPOD, as well as highlight key scientific findings from nPOD studies. We will present our view for the future of nPOD and discuss how the success of the program has established a precedent whereby knowledge gaps in biomedical research can be addressed through the study of human tissues.

Islet autoantibody frequency in relatives of children with type 1 diabetes who have a type 2 diabetes diagnosis.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate characteristics of autoimmunity in individuals who have a type 2 diagnosis and are relatives of children with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Pre-diagnosis samples (median 17 months before onset) from relatives who were later diagnosed with type 2 diabetes were measured for autoantibodies to glutamate decarboxylase 65 (GADA), islet antigen-2 (IA-2A), zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8A) and insulin (IAA) as well as the type 1 diabetes genetic risk score (GRS2). Associations between islet autoantibodies, insulin treatment and GRS2 were analysed using Fisher's exact and t-tests. RESULTS: Among 226 relatives (64% men; mean age at sampling 41 years; mean age 54 years at diagnosis), 32 (14%) were islet autoantibody-positive for at least one autoantibody more than a decade before diagnosis. Approximately half of these (n = 15) were treated with insulin. GADA-positivity was higher in insulin-treated relatives than in non-insulin-treated relatives (12/18 [67%] vs. 6/18 [33%], p < 0.001). IAA-positivity was observed in 13/32 (41%) of relatives with autoantibodies. GRS2 scores were increased in autoantibody-positive relatives (p = 0.032), but there was no clear evidence for a difference according to treatment (p = 0.072). CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of measuring islet autoantibodies, including IAA, in relatives of people with type 1 diabetes to avoid misdiagnosis.

Associations between diabetes-related genetic risk scores and residual beta cell function in type 1 diabetes: the GUTDM1 study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Use of genetic risk scores (GRS) may help to distinguish between type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes, but less is known about whether GRS are associated with disease severity or progression after diagnosis. Therefore, we tested whether GRS are associated with residual beta cell function and glycaemic control in individuals with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Immunochip arrays and TOPMed were used to genotype a cross-sectional cohort (n=479, age 41.7 ± 14.9 years, duration of diabetes 16.0 years [IQR 6.0-29.0], HbA1c 55.6 ± 12.2 mmol/mol). Several GRS, which were originally developed to assess genetic risk of type 1 diabetes (GRS-1, GRS-2) and type 2 diabetes (GRS-T2D), were calculated. GRS-C1 and GRS-C2 were based on SNPs that have previously been shown to be associated with residual beta cell function. Regression models were used to investigate the association between GRS and residual beta cell function, assessed using the urinary C-peptide/creatinine ratio, and the association between GRS and continuous glucose monitor metrics. RESULTS: Higher GRS-1 and higher GRS-2 both showed a significant association with undetectable UCPCR (OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.69, 0.89 and OR 0.84: 95% CI 0.75, 0.93, respectively), which were attenuated after correction for sex and age of onset (GRS-2) and disease duration (GRS-1). Higher GRS-C2 was associated with detectable urinary C-peptide/creatinine ratio (≥0.01 nmol/mmol) after correction for sex and age of onset (OR 6.95; 95% CI 1.19, 40.75). A higher GRS-T2D was associated with less time below range (TBR) (OR for TBR<4% 1.41; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.96) and lower glucose coefficient of variance (ß -1.53; 95% CI -2.76, -0.29). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Diabetes-related GRS are associated with residual beta cell function in individuals with type 1 diabetes. These findings suggest some genetic contribution to preservation of beta cell function.

Genetic Associations with C-peptide Levels before Type 1 Diabetes Diagnosis in At-Risk Relatives.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether the type 1 diabetes genetic risk score-2 (T1D-GRS2) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with C-peptide preservation before type 1 diabetes diagnosis. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 713 autoantibody-positive participants who developed type 1 diabetes in the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study who had T1DExomeChip data. We evaluated the relationships of 16 known SNPs and T1D-GRS2 with area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide levels during oral glucose tolerance tests conducted in the 9 months before diagnosis. RESULTS: Higher T1D-GRS2 was associated with lower C-peptide AUC in the 9 months before diagnosis in univariate (ß=-0.06, P<0.0001) and multivariate (ß=-0.03, P=0.005) analyses. Participants with the JAZF1 rs864745 T allele had lower C-peptide AUC in both univariate (ß=-0.11, P=0.002) and multivariate (ß=-0.06, P=0.018) analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The type 2 diabetes-associated JAZF1 rs864745 T allele and higher T1D-GRS2 are associated with lower C-peptide AUC prior to diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, with implications for the design of prevention trials.

Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk in 109,954 Veterans With Adult-Onset Diabetes: The Million Veteran Program (MVP).

OBJECTIVE: To characterize high type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk in a population where type 2 diabetes (T2D) predominates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Characteristics typically associated with T1D were assessed in 109,594 Million Veteran Program participants with adult-onset diabetes, 2011-2021, who had T1D genetic risk scores (GRS) defined as low (0 to <45%), medium (45 to <90%), high (90 to <95%), or highest (≥95%). RESULTS: T1D characteristics increased progressively with higher genetic risk (P < 0.001 for trend). A GRS ≥90% was more common with diabetes diagnoses before age 40 years, but 95% of those participants were diagnosed at age ≥40 years, and their characteristics resembled those of individuals with T2D in mean age (64.3 years) and BMI (32.3 kg/m2). Compared with the low-risk group, the highest-risk group was more likely to have diabetic ketoacidosis (low GRS 0.9% vs. highest GRS 3.7%), hypoglycemia prompting emergency visits (3.7% vs. 5.8%), outpatient plasma glucose <50 mg/dL (7.5% vs. 13.4%), a shorter median time to start insulin (3.5 vs. 1.4 years), use of a T1D diagnostic code (16.3% vs. 28.1%), low C-peptide levels if tested (1.8% vs. 32.4%), and glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies (6.9% vs. 45.2%), all P < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics associated with T1D were increased with higher genetic risk, and especially with the top 10% of risk. However, the age and BMI of those participants resemble those of people with T2D, and a substantial proportion did not have diagnostic testing or use of T1D diagnostic codes. T1D genetic screening could be used to aid identification of adult-onset T1D in settings in which T2D predominates.

Human inherited PD-L1 deficiency is clinically and immunologically less severe than PD-1 deficiency.

We previously reported two siblings with inherited PD-1 deficiency who died from autoimmune pneumonitis at 3 and 11 years of age after developing other autoimmune manifestations, including type 1 diabetes (T1D). We report here two siblings, aged 10 and 11 years, with neonatal-onset T1D (diagnosed at the ages of 1 day and 7 wk), who are homozygous for a splice-site variant of CD274 (encoding PD-L1). This variant results in the exclusive expression of an alternative, loss-of-function PD-L1 protein isoform in overexpression experiments and in the patients' primary leukocytes. Surprisingly, cytometric immunophenotyping and single-cell RNA sequencing analysis on blood leukocytes showed largely normal development and transcriptional profiles across lymphoid and myeloid subsets in the PD-L1-deficient siblings, contrasting with the extensive dysregulation of both lymphoid and myeloid leukocyte compartments in PD-1 deficiency. Our findings suggest that PD-1 and PD-L1 are essential for preventing early-onset T1D but that, unlike PD-1 deficiency, PD-L1 deficiency does not lead to fatal autoimmunity with extensive leukocytic dysregulation.

Islet autoantibodies as precision diagnostic tools to characterize heterogeneity in type 1 diabetes: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Islet autoantibodies form the foundation for type 1 diabetes (T1D) diagnosis and staging, but heterogeneity exists in T1D development and presentation. We hypothesized that autoantibodies can identify heterogeneity before, at, and after T1D diagnosis, and in response to disease-modifying therapies. METHODS: We systematically reviewed PubMed and EMBASE databases (6/14/2022) assessing 10 years of original research examining relationships between autoantibodies and heterogeneity before, at, after diagnosis, and in response to disease-modifying therapies in individuals at-risk or within 1 year of T1D diagnosis. A critical appraisal checklist tool for cohort studies was modified and used for risk of bias assessment. RESULTS: Here we show that 152 studies that met extraction criteria most commonly characterized heterogeneity before diagnosis (91/152). Autoantibody type/target was most frequently examined, followed by autoantibody number. Recurring themes included correlations of autoantibody number, type, and titers with progression, differing phenotypes based on order of autoantibody seroconversion, and interactions with age and genetics. Only 44% specifically described autoantibody assay standardization program participation. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence most strongly supports the application of autoantibody features to more precisely define T1D before diagnosis. Our findings support continued use of pre-clinical staging paradigms based on autoantibody number and suggest that additional autoantibody features, particularly in relation to age and genetic risk, could offer more precise stratification. To improve reproducibility and applicability of autoantibody-based precision medicine in T1D, we propose a methods checklist for islet autoantibody-based manuscripts which includes use of precision medicine MeSH terms and participation in autoantibody standardization workshops.

Islet autoantibodies are markers found in the blood when insulin-producing cells in the pancreas become damaged and can be used to predict future development of type 1 diabetes. We evaluated published literature to determine whether characteristics of islet antibodies (type, levels, numbers) could improve prediction and help understand differences in how individuals with type 1 diabetes respond to treatments. We found existing evidence shows that islet autoantibody type and number are most useful to predict disease progression before diagnosis. In addition, the age when islet autoantibodies first appear strongly influences rate of progression. These findings provide important information for patients and care providers on how islet autoantibodies can be used to understand future type 1 diabetes development and to identify individuals who have the potential to benefit from intervention or prevention therapy.

Applying a genetic risk score model to enhance prediction of future multiple sclerosis diagnosis at first presentation with optic neuritis.

Optic neuritis (ON) is associated with numerous immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, but 50% patients are ultimately diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS). Differentiating MS-ON from non-MS-ON acutely is challenging but important; non-MS ON often requires urgent immunosuppression to preserve vision. Using data from the United Kingdom Biobank we showed that combining an MS-genetic risk score (GRS) with demographic risk factors (age, sex) significantly improved MS prediction in undifferentiated ON; one standard deviation of MS-GRS increased the Hazard of MS 1.3-fold (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.55, P < 0.01). Participants stratified into quartiles of predicted risk developed incident MS at rates varying from 4% (95%CI 0.5-7%, lowest risk quartile) to 41% (95%CI 33-49%, highest risk quartile). The model replicated across two cohorts (Geisinger, USA, and FinnGen, Finland). This study indicates that a combined model might enhance individual MS risk stratification, paving the way for precision-based ON treatment and earlier MS disease-modifying therapy.

Clinical Prediction Models Combining Routine Clinical Measures Have High Accuracy in Identifying Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes Defined by Maintained Endogenous Insulin Secretion: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.

OBJECTIVE: With high prevalence of obesity and overlapping features between diabetes subtypes, accurately classifying youth-onset diabetes can be challenging. We aimed to develop prediction models that, using characteristics available at diabetes diagnosis, can identify youth who will retain endogenous insulin secretion at levels consistent with type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied 2,966 youth with diabetes in the prospective SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study (diagnosis age ≤19 years) to develop prediction models to identify participants with fasting C-peptide ≥250 pmol/L (≥0.75 ng/mL) after >3 years' (median 74 months) diabetes duration. Models included clinical measures at the baseline visit, at a mean diabetes duration of 11 months (age, BMI, sex, waist circumference, HDL cholesterol), with and without islet autoantibodies (GADA, IA-2A) and a Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score (T1DGRS). RESULTS: Models using routine clinical measures with or without autoantibodies and T1DGRS were highly accurate in identifying participants with C-peptide ≥0.75 ng/mL (17% of participants; 2.3% and 53% of those with and without positive autoantibodies) (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUCROC] 0.95-0.98). In internal validation, optimism was very low, with excellent calibration (slope 0.995-0.999). Models retained high performance for predicting retained C-peptide in older youth with obesity (AUCROC 0.88-0.96) and in subgroups defined by self-reported race/ethnicity (AUCROC 0.88-0.97), autoantibody status (AUCROC 0.87-0.96), and clinically diagnosed diabetes types (AUCROC 0.81-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Prediction models combining routine clinical measures at diabetes diagnosis, with or without islet autoantibodies or T1DGRS, can accurately identify youth with diabetes who maintain endogenous insulin secretion in the range associated with T2D.

Hyperglycaemia is a causal risk factor for upper limb pathologies.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes (regardless of type) and obesity are associated with a range of musculoskeletal disorders. The causal mechanisms driving these associations are unknown for many upper limb pathologies. We used genetic techniques to test the causal link between glycemia, obesity and musculoskeletal conditions. METHODS: In the UK Biobank's unrelated European cohort (N = 379 708) we performed mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses to test for a causal effect of long-term high glycaemia and adiposity on four musculoskeletal pathologies: frozen shoulder, Dupuytren's disease, carpal tunnel syndrome and trigger finger. We also performed single-gene MR using rare variants in the GCK gene. RESULTS: Using MR, we found evidence that long-term high glycaemia has a causal role in the aetiology of upper limb conditions. A 10-mmol/mol increase in genetically predicted haemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) was associated with frozen shoulder: odds ratio (OR) = 1.50 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-1.88], Dupuytren's disease: OR = 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.35), trigger finger: OR = 1.30 (95% CI, 1.09-1.55) and carpal tunnel syndrome: OR = 1.20 (95% CI, 1.09-1.33). Carriers of GCK mutations have increased odds of frozen shoulder: OR = 7.16 (95% CI, 2.93-17.51) and carpal tunnel syndrome: OR = 2.86 (95% CI, 1.50-5.44) but not Dupuytren's disease or trigger finger. We found evidence that an increase in genetically predicted body mass index (BMI) of 5 kg/m2 was associated with carpal tunnel syndrome: OR = 1.13 (95% CI, 1.10-1.16) and associated negatively with Dupuytren's disease: OR = 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.98), but no evidence of association with frozen shoulder or trigger finger. Trigger finger (OR 1.96 (95% CI, 1.42-2.69) P = 3.6e-05) and carpal tunnel syndrome [OR 1.63 (95% CI, 1.36-1.95) P = 8.5e-08] are associated with genetically predicted unfavourable adiposity increase of one standard deviation of body fat. CONCLUSIONS: Our study consistently demonstrates a causal role of long-term high glycaemia in the aetiology of upper limb musculoskeletal conditions. Clinicians treating diabetes patients should be aware of these complications in clinic, specifically those managing the care of GCK mutation carriers. Upper limb musculoskeletal conditions should be considered diabetes complications.

Diabetes Study of Children of Diverse Ethnicity and Race: Study design.

AIMS: Determining diabetes type in children has become increasingly difficult due to an overlap in typical characteristics between type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The Diabetes Study in Children of Diverse Ethnicity and Race (DISCOVER) programme is a National Institutes of Health (NIH)-supported multicenter, prospective, observational study that enrols children and adolescents with non-secondary diabetes. The primary aim of the study was to develop improved models to differentiate between T1D and T2D in diverse youth. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The proposed models will evaluate the utility of three existing T1D genetic risk scores in combination with data on islet autoantibodies and other parameters typically available at the time of diabetes onset. Low non-fasting serum C-peptide (<0.6 nmol/L) between 3 and 10 years after diabetes diagnosis will be considered a biomarker for T1D as it reflects the loss of insulin secretion ability. Participating centres are enrolling youth (<19 years old) either with established diabetes (duration 3-10 years) for a cross-sectional evaluation or with recent onset diabetes (duration 3 weeks-15 months) for the longitudinal observation with annual visits for 3 years. Cross-sectional data will be used to develop models. Longitudinal data will be used to externally validate the best-fitting model. RESULTS: The results are expected to improve the ability to classify diabetes type in a large and growing subset of children who have an unclear form of diabetes at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate and timely classification of diabetes type will help establish the correct clinical management early in the course of the disease.

Genetic discovery and risk prediction for type 1 diabetes in individuals without high-risk HLA-DR3/DR4 haplotypes.

Over 10% of type 1 diabetes (T1D) cases do not have high-risk HLA-DR3 or DR4 haplotypes with distinct clinical features such as later onset and reduced insulin dependence. To identify genetic drivers of T1D in the absence of DR3/DR4, we performed association and fine-mapping analyses in 12,316 non-DR3/DR4 samples. Risk variants at the MHC and other loci genome-wide had heterogeneity in effects on T1D dependent on DR3/DR4, and non-DR3/DR4 T1D had evidence for a greater polygenic burden. T1D-assocated variants in non-DR3/DR4 were more enriched for loci, regulatory elements, and pathways for antigen presentation, innate immunity, and beta cells, and depleted in T cells, compared to DR3/DR4. Non-DR3/DR4 T1D cases were poorly classified based on an existing genetic risk score GRS2, and we created a new GRS which highly discriminated non-DR3/DR4 T1D from both non-diabetes and T2D. In total we identified heterogeneity in T1D genetic risk and disease mechanisms dependent on high-risk HLA haplotype and which enabled accurate classification of T1D across HLA background.

Clinical prediction models combining routine clinical measures identify participants with youth-onset diabetes who maintain insulin secretion in the range associated with type 2 diabetes: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.

Objective: With the high prevalence of pediatric obesity and overlapping features between diabetes subtypes, accurately classifying youth-onset diabetes can be challenging. We aimed to develop prediction models that, using characteristics available at diabetes diagnosis, can identify youth who will retain endogenous insulin secretion at levels consistent with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods: We studied 2,966 youth with diabetes in the prospective SEARCH study (diagnosis age ≤19 years) to develop prediction models to identify participants with fasting c-peptide ≥250 pmol/L (≥0.75ng/ml) after >3 years (median 74 months) of diabetes duration. Models included clinical measures at baseline visit, at a mean diabetes duration of 11 months (age, BMI, sex, waist circumference, HDL-C), with and without islet autoantibodies (GADA, IA-2A) and a Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score (T1DGRS). Results: Models using routine clinical measures with or without autoantibodies and T1DGRS were highly accurate in identifying participants with c-peptide ≥0.75 ng/ml (17% of participants; 2.3% and 53% of those with and without positive autoantibodies) (area under receiver operator curve [AUCROC] 0.95-0.98). In internal validation, optimism was very low, with excellent calibration (slope=0.995-0.999). Models retained high performance for predicting retained c-peptide in older youth with obesity (AUCROC 0.88-0.96), and in subgroups defined by self-reported race/ethnicity (AUCROC 0.88-0.97), autoantibody status (AUCROC 0.87-0.96), and clinically diagnosed diabetes types (AUCROC 0.81-0.92). Conclusion: Prediction models combining routine clinical measures at diabetes diagnosis, with or without islet autoantibodies or T1DGRS, can accurately identify youth with diabetes who maintain endogenous insulin secretion in the range associated with type 2 diabetes.

Disease-modifying therapies and features linked to treatment response in type 1 diabetes prevention: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Type 1 diabetes (T1D) results from immune-mediated destruction of insulin-producing beta cells. Prevention efforts have focused on immune modulation and supporting beta cell health before or around diagnosis; however, heterogeneity in disease progression and therapy response has limited translation to clinical practice, highlighting the need for precision medicine approaches to T1D disease modification. METHODS: To understand the state of knowledge in this area, we performed a systematic review of randomized-controlled trials with ≥50 participants cataloged in PubMed or Embase from the past 25 years testing T1D disease-modifying therapies and/or identifying features linked to treatment response, analyzing bias using a Cochrane-risk-of-bias instrument. RESULTS: We identify and summarize 75 manuscripts, 15 describing 11 prevention trials for individuals with increased risk for T1D, and 60 describing treatments aimed at preventing beta cell loss at disease onset. Seventeen interventions, mostly immunotherapies, show benefit compared to placebo (only two prior to T1D onset). Fifty-seven studies employ precision analyses to assess features linked to treatment response. Age, beta cell function measures, and immune phenotypes are most frequently tested. However, analyses are typically not prespecified, with inconsistent methods of reporting, and tend to report positive findings. CONCLUSIONS: While the quality of prevention and intervention trials is overall high, the low quality of precision analyses makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions that inform clinical practice. To facilitate precision medicine approaches to T1D prevention, considerations for future precision studies include the incorporation of uniform outcome measures, reproducible biomarkers, and prespecified, fully powered precision analyses into future trial design.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a condition that results from the destruction of a type of cell in the pancreas that produces the hormone insulin, leading to lifelong dependence on insulin injections. T1D prevention remains a challenging goal, largely due to the immense variability in disease processes and progression. Therapies tested to date in medical research settings (clinical trials) work only in a subset of individuals, highlighting the need for more tailored prevention approaches. We reviewed clinical trials of therapies targeting the disease process in T1D. While the overall quality of trials was high, studies testing individual features affecting responses to treatments were low. This review reveals an important need to carefully plan high-quality analyses of features that affect treatment response in T1D, to ensure that tailored approaches may one day be applied to clinical practice.

Type 1 Diabetes Risk Phenotypes Using Cluster Analysis.

Background: Although statistical models for predicting type 1 diabetes risk have been developed, approaches that reveal clinically meaningful clusters in the at-risk population and allow for non-linear relationships between predictors are lacking. We aimed to identify and characterize clusters of islet autoantibody-positive individuals that share similar characteristics and type 1 diabetes risk. Methods: We tested a novel outcome-guided clustering method in initially non-diabetic autoantibody-positive relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes, using the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention (PTP) study data (n=1127). The outcome of the analysis was time to type 1 diabetes and variables in the model included demographics, genetics, metabolic factors and islet autoantibodies. An independent dataset (Diabetes Prevention Trial of Type 1 Diabetes, DPT-1 study) (n=704) was used for validation. Findings: The analysis revealed 8 clusters with varying type 1 diabetes risks, categorized into three groups. Group A had three clusters with high glucose levels and high risk. Group B included four clusters with elevated autoantibody titers. Group C had three lower-risk clusters with lower autoantibody titers and glucose levels. Within the groups, the clusters exhibit variations in characteristics such as glucose levels, C-peptide levels, age, and genetic risk. A decision rule for assigning individuals to clusters was developed. The validation dataset confirms that the clusters can identify individuals with similar characteristics. Interpretation: Demographic, metabolic, immunological, and genetic markers can be used to identify clusters of distinctive characteristics and different risks of progression to type 1 diabetes among autoantibody-positive individuals with a family history of type 1 diabetes. The results also revealed the heterogeneity in the population and complex interactions between variables.