Identifying critical source areas of non-point source pollution to enhance water quality: Integrated SWAT modeling and multi-variable statistical analysis to reveal key variables and thresholds.

By integrating soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) modeling and land use and land cover (LULC) based multi-variable statistical analysis, this study aimed to identify driving factors, potential thresholds, and critical source areas (CSAs) to enhance water quality in southern Alabama and northwest Florida's Choctawhatchee Watershed. The results revealed the significance of forest cover and of the lumped developed areas and cultivated crops ("Source Areas") in influencing water quality. The stepwise linear regression analysis based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) showed that a negative correlation between forest percent cover and total nitrogen (TN), organic nitrogen (ORGN), and organic phosphorus (ORGP), highlighting the importance of forests in reducing nutrient loads. Conversely, Source Area percentage was positively correlated with total phosphorus (TP) loads, indicating the influence of human activities on TP levels. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis determined thresholds for forest percentage and Source Area percentage as 37.47 % and 20.26 %, respectively. These thresholds serve as important reference points for identifying CSAs. The CSAs identified based on these thresholds covered a relatively small portion (28 %) but contributed 47 % of TN and 50 % of TP of the whole watershed. The study underscores the importance of considering both physical process-based modeling and multi-variable statistical analysis for a comprehensive understanding of watershed management, i.e., the identification of CSAs and the associated variables and their tipping points to maintain water quality.

Faunal engineering stimulates landscape-scale accretion in southeastern US salt marshes.

The fate of coastal ecosystems depends on their ability to keep pace with sea-level rise-yet projections of accretion widely ignore effects of engineering fauna. Here, we quantify effects of the mussel, Geukensia demissa, on southeastern US saltmarsh accretion. Multi-season and -tidal stage surveys, in combination with field experiments, reveal that deposition is 2.8-10.7-times greater on mussel aggregations than any other marsh location. Our Delft-3D-BIVALVES model further predicts that mussels drive substantial changes to both the magnitude (±<0.1 cm·yr-1) and spatial patterning of accretion at marsh domain scales. We explore the validity of model predictions with a multi-year creekshed mussel manipulation of >200,000 mussels and find that this faunal engineer drives far greater changes to relative marsh accretion rates than predicted (±>0.4 cm·yr-1). Thus, we highlight an urgent need for empirical, experimental, and modeling work to resolve the importance of faunal engineers in directly and indirectly modifying the persistence of coastal ecosystems globally.

Wrack enhancement of post-hurricane vegetation and geomorphological recovery in a coastal dune.

Coastal ecosystems such as sand dunes, mangrove forests, and salt marshes provide natural storm protection for vulnerable shorelines. At the same time, storms erode and redistribute biological materials among coastal systems via wrack. Yet how such cross-ecosystem subsidies affect post-storm recovery is not well understood. Here, we report an experimental investigation into the effect of storm wrack on eco-geomorphological recovery of a coastal embryo dune in north-eastern Florida, USA, following hurricane Irma. We contrasted replicated 100-m2 wrack-removal and unmanipulated (control) plots, measuring vegetation and geomorphological responses over 21 months. Relative to controls, grass cover was reduced 4-fold where diverse storm wrack, including seagrass rhizomes, seaweed, and wood, was removed. Wrack removal was also associated with a reduction in mean elevation, which persisted until the end of the experiment when removal plots had a 14% lower mean elevation than control plots. These results suggest that subsides of wrack re-distributed from other ecosystem types (e.g. seagrasses, macroalgae, uplands): i) enhances the growth of certain dune-building grasses; and ii) boosts the geomorphological recovery of coastal dunes. Our study also indicates that the practice of post-storm beach cleaning to remove wrack-a practice widespread outside of protected areas-may undermine the resilience of coastal dunes and their services.

Sea-level rise and the emergence of a keystone grazer alter the geomorphic evolution and ecology of southeast US salt marshes.

Keystone species have large ecological effects relative to their abundance and have been identified in many ecosystems. However, global change is pervasively altering environmental conditions, potentially elevating new species to keystone roles. Here, we reveal that a historically innocuous grazer-the marsh crab Sesarma reticulatum-is rapidly reshaping the geomorphic evolution and ecological organization of southeastern US salt marshes now burdened by rising sea levels. Our analyses indicate that sea-level rise in recent decades has widely outpaced marsh vertical accretion, increasing tidal submergence of marsh surfaces, particularly where creeks exhibit morphologies that are unable to efficiently drain adjacent marsh platforms. In these increasingly submerged areas, cordgrass decreases belowground root:rhizome ratios, causing substrate hardness to decrease to within the optimal range for Sesarma burrowing. Together, these bio-physical changes provoke Sesarma to aggregate in high-density grazing and burrowing fronts at the heads of tidal creeks (hereafter, creekheads). Aerial-image analyses reveal that resulting "Sesarma-grazed" creekheads increased in prevalence from 10 ± 2% to 29 ± 5% over the past <25 y and, by tripling creek-incision rates relative to nongrazed creekheads, have increased marsh-landscape drainage density by 8 to 35% across the region. Field experiments further demonstrate that Sesarma-grazed creekheads, through their removal of vegetation that otherwise obstructs predator access, enhance the vulnerability of macrobenthic invertebrates to predation and strongly reduce secondary production across adjacent marsh platforms. Thus, sea-level rise is creating conditions within which Sesarma functions as a keystone species that is driving dynamic, landscape-scale changes in salt-marsh geomorphic evolution, spatial organization, and species interactions.