Risk factors for massive gastrointestinal bleeding occurrence and mortality: A prospective single-center study.

BACKGROUND: Massive gastrointestinal bleeding is a life-threatening condition without a well-established definition. We aimed to analyze the characteristics, risk factors, and outcomes of patients with massive upper gastrointestinal bleeding. METHODS: Our study analyzed a prospective registry of patients admitted between 2013 and 2020 with variceal and non-variceal causes. Severe bleeding was defined as ongoing bleeding requiring transfusion of more than 2 units of packed red blood cells within 24 hours, accompanied by signs of shock. The main outcomes were 30-day and 6-month mortality, rebleeding within 7 days, persistent bleeding, and severe complications during admission. RESULTS: Out of 1213 patients, 171 had massive gastrointestinal bleeding, with a predominance of males. The massive bleeding group had higher rates of chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, in-patient status, disseminated malignancy, alcoholism, and ASA score ≥3. All major outcomes, including 30-day mortality, 6-month mortality, rebleeding, persistent bleeding, and severe complications, were more common in the massive bleeding group. Multivariate logistic regression identified inpatient status, systemic diseases, malignancy, active bleeding in endoscopy, and severe complications as risk factors for massive bleeding and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Inpatient status and comorbidities, especially systemic diseases, and malignancies, were associated with a higher risk of massive bleeding. Mortality was linked to chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, severe comorbidities, and alcohol consumption. We observed increased 6-months mortality, probably related to a health status in which gastrointestinal bleeding heralded poor outcomes, some of them potentially preventable. Innovative healthcare interventions, such as Emergency Department-based intermediate care areas or Intensive Care Units, and multidisciplinary follow-up, could potentially improve survival.

Performance of the New ABC and MAP(ASH) Scores in the Prediction of Relevant Outcomes in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

Background & Aims: Several risk scores have been proposed for risk-stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. ABC score was found more accurate predicting mortality than AIMS65. MAP(ASH) is a simple, pre-endoscopy score with a great ability to predict intervention and mortality. The aim of this study was to compare ABC and MAP(ASH) discriminative ability for the prediction of mortality and intervention in UGIB. As a secondary aim we compared both scores with Glasgow-Blatchford score and AIMS65. Methods: Our study included patients admitted to the emergency room of Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital with UGIB (2017-2020). Information regarding clinical, biochemical tests and procedures was collected. Main outcomes were in-hospital mortality and a composite endpoint for intervention. Results: MAP(ASH) and ABC had similar AUROCs for mortality (0.79 vs. 0.80). For intervention, MAP(ASH) (AUROC = 0.75) and ABC (AUROC = 0.72) were also similar. Regarding rebleeding, AUROCs of MAP(ASH) and ABC were 0.67 and 0.61 respectively. No statistically differences were found in these outcomes. With a low threshold for MAP(ASH) ≤ 2, ABC and MAP(ASH) classified a similar proportion of patients as being at low risk of death (42% vs. 45.2%), with virtually no mortality under these thresholds. Conclusions: MAP(ASH) and ABC were similar for the prediction of relevant outcomes for UGIB, such as intervention, rebleeding and in-hospital mortality, with an accurate selection of low-risk patients. MAP(ASH) has the advantage of being easier to calculate even without the aid of electronic tools.

Accuracy in optical diagnosis for polyps between 5 and 15 mm and its implications on surveillance. A prospective, multicenter study. (POPS study).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Polyps histology and diameter up to 1 cm determine whether a patient needs a colonoscopy after 3 years or less, or far ahead. Endoscopists' and pathologists' size estimations can be imprecise. Our aim was to assess endoscopist ability to correctly recommend surveillance colonoscopies for patients with polyps around the 10 mm threshold, based on its endoscopic sizing and optical diagnosis by NBI. METHODS: NBI-assisted diagnosis and endoscopist estimation of polyp size were compared with reference standard, considering this as the post resection polyp measurements by the nurse assistant and the pathologic results, in a prospective, multicenter, real life study, that recruited adults undergoing colonoscopy in five hospitals. By comparing the endoscopic and pathologist size estimation, with polyps' measurement after resection, and optical and histological diagnoses in patients with polyps between 5 and 15 mm, sensitivity was assessed at the patient level by means of two characteristics: the presence of adenoma, and the surveillance interval. Surveillance intervals were established by the endoscopist, based on optical diagnosis, and by another gastroenterologist, grounded on the pathologic report. Determinants of accuracy were explored at the polyp level. RESULTS: 532 polyps were resected in 451 patients. Size estimation was more precise for the endoscopist. Endoscopist sensitivity for the presence of adenoma or carcinoma was 98.7%. Considering the presence of high-grade dysplasia or cancer, sensitivity was 82.6% for the endoscopic optical diagnosis. Sensitivity for a correct 3-year surveillance interval was 91.5%, specificity 82.3%, with a PPV of 93.2% and NPV of 78.5% for the endoscopist. 6.51% of patients would have had their follow-up colonoscopy delayed, whereas 22 (4.8%) would have it been performed earlier, had endoscopist recommendations been followed. CONCLUSION: Our study observes that NBI optical diagnosis can be recommended in routine practice to establish surveillance intervals for polyps between 5 and 15 mm. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04232176.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients 80 years old and over. A comparison with younger patients and risk factors analysis for in-hospital and delayed mortality.

INTRODUCTION: Outcomes in old patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) have been scarcely studied. Our aim was to compare very old individuals (>80 years old) with younger patients with UGIB, and to identify risk factors for the main outcomes. METHODS: A single-centre prospectively collected database was analysed. Descriptive, inferential and multivariate logistic regression models were performed. Main clinical outcomes were in-hospital and delayed 6-month mortality. RESULTS: 698 patients were included, 143 very old and 555 aged <80. Old patients differed from younger ones in comorbidities (85.9% vs. 62%, P < .0001), oral anticoagulants (32.3% vs. 12.7%; P < .0001), and antiplatelets intake (32.3% vs. 21.2%; P < .007). No differences were found in the need for endoscopic interventions, blood unit transfusions, hospital stay, in-hospital rebleeding and mortality. Among very old patients, creatinine levels were higher in those who died compared with the ones who survived (1.92 ± 1.46 vs. 1.25 ± 0.59 mg/dL; P = .002), they had lower haemoglobin levels (8.1 ± 1.4 vs. 9.1 ± 2.4 g/dL; P = .04) and longer hospital stays (17.75 ± 15.5 vs. 8.1 ± 8.4 days; P < .0001). Logistic regression showed creatinine levels (OR: 2.42; 95% CI: 1.24-4.74; P = .01), cirrhosis (OR: 2.88, 95% CI: 1.88-17.34; P = .04) and being an impatient (OR: 3.90; 95% CI: 1.11-20; P = .035) were independent risk factors for mortality in older patients. They had an increased delayed 6-month mortality compared with younger patients (17.5% vs. 8%, P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Creatinine levels, cirrhosis or the onset of UGIB while being an inpatient were independent risk factors for mortality in very old patients. Delayed mortality was higher among them, mostly caused by cardiovascular events and neoplasms, but not in-hospital mortality.

A Gastroenterologist' clinical experience in COVID 19 and in-hospital mortality and length of stay analysis.

OBJECTIVES: COVID19 pandemic has forced physicians from different specialties to assist cases overload. Our aim is to assess gastroenterologist's assistance in COVID-19 by assessing mortality, ICU admission, and length of stay, and seek for risk factors for in-hospital mortality and longer hospital stay. METHODS: A total of 41 COVID-19 patients assisted by gastroenterologist (GI cohort) and 137 assisted by pulmonologist, internal medicine practitioners, and infectious disease specialists (COVID expert cohort) during October-November 2020 were prospectively collected. Clinical, demographic, imaging, and laboratory markers were collected and compared between both cohorts. Bivariate analysis and logistic regression were performed to search for risk factors of mortality and longer hospital stays. RESULTS: A total of 27 patients died (15.1%), 11 were admitted to ICU (6.1%). There were no differences between cohorts in mortality (14.6% vs 15.4%;p = 0.90), ICU admission (12.1% vs 4%;p = 0.13), and length of stay (6.67 ± 4 vs 7.15 ± 4.5 days; p = 0.58). PaO2/FiO2 on admission (OR 0.991;CI95% 0.984-0.998) and age > 70 (OR 17.54;CI95% 3.93-78.22) were independently related to mortality. Age > 70, history of malignancy, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease were related to longer hospital stays (p < 0.001, p = 0.03, p = 0.04, p = 0.02 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 assistance was similar between gastroenterologist and COVID experts when assessing mortality, ICU admission, and length of stay. Age>70 and decreased PaO2/FiO2 on admission were independent risk factors of mortality. Age and several comorbidities were related to longer hospital stay.

Endoscopic ultrasound as a diagnostic and predictive tool in idiopathic acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) is useful in the diagnostic workup of idiopathic acute pancreatitis but its role as a predictor of recurrence has not been thoroughly assessed. Our aim was to study the performance of EUS in idiopathic acute pancreatitis, its impact on the natural history of the disease, and the factors related to recurrence. METHODS: Patients with idiopathic acute pancreatitis referred to our endoscopy unit were enrolled and followed, with assessment of the performance of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), cholecystectomy, and the incidence of recurrence. EUS findings and recurrence rates were compared between patients with a first episode or recurrent attacks and in patients with previous cholecystectomy versus those with gallbladder in situ. RESULTS: One hundred six patients were included (mean follow up: 53.59±27.79 months). Biliary disease related to stones was the most common finding on EUS (49.1%), and patients referred for recurrent attacks showed the highest recurrence rate during follow up (57.1%). ERCP or cholecystectomy reduced recurrences to 14.3% in patients with biliary disease. Age under 65 (odds ratio [OR] 3.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-10.44; P=0.02), previous cholecystectomy (OR 3.19, 95%CI 1.11-9.17; P=0.03), and no lithiasis on EUS (OR 2.87, 95%CI 1.04-7.87; P=0.04) were independent risks factors for recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: EUS-directed ERCP/cholecystectomy was associated with lower relapse rates in idiopathic acute pancreatitis. Along with age and gallbladder status, it provides predictive information about recurrence likelihood.

Impact of Everolimus-based Immunosuppression on Renal Function in Liver Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND: Calcineurin inhibitors have been implicated in acute and chronic kidney disease after liver transplant (LT). Everolimus (EVR) is a mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor efficacious in preventing acute cellular rejection while preserving renal function among LT recipients. We evaluated the benefits on renal function of EVR immunosuppression in LT recipients. METHODS: We performed a retrospective and observational study in 477 LT recipients in Virgen de las Nieves Hospital from 2002 to 2019 on the use of EVR with tacrolimus minimization or withdrawal in LT recipients with renal dysfunction. The study included 100 patients starting EVR (20.96%); in 66 (66%) the indication was renal dysfunction. The change in renal function was assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 17.0 software (IBM, Munich, Germany). RESULTS: Fifty 8 patients received mycophenolate mofetil (87.8%), and tacrolimus therapy was stopped in 27 patients (40.9%). Induction therapy with basiliximab was administered in 41 patients (62.12%). There was significant difference between estimated glomerular filtration rate at the time of starting EVR and the first month at last follow-up (49.42 mL/min/1.73 m2 vs 75.27 mL/min/1.73 m2; P < .001) and at end of follow-up (24 months) (49.42 mL/min/1.73 m2 vs 64.32 mL/min/1.73 m2; P = .001). The rate of incidence of adverse events was 48.48% (32/66). Seven patients died during follow-up (10.6%), but there were no EVR-related deaths. Eleven patients (16.6%) developed biopsy-proven acute rejection. CONCLUSION: This study showed that EVR is associated with a beneficial effect on glomerular filtration rate in both the short and long term in LT recipients.

Descriptive Analysis of Everolimus Conversion in Liver Transplant Recipients With Malignant Neoplastic Disease.

BACKGROUND: Calcineurin inhibitors are associated with the development of de novo tumors and increased recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplant. It has been suggested that mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors (everolimus [EVR]) may improve prognosis. We analyzed our experience on the use of EVR in malignant neoplasms in liver transplantation. METHODS: We performed a retrospective descriptive analysis of 477 transplants performed between 2002 and 2019 at Virgen de las Nieves Hospital. A total of 100 patients received EVR; 23 transplants were because of tumor disease (23%), with de novo tumor in 12 patients and hepatocarcinoma in 11. The statistical study was carried out using the statistical program SPSS 17.0 software. RESULTS: The study included 18 male patients (78.3%) and 5 female patients (21.7%) with an average age of 59.67 years. The most common indications of liver transplant have been alcoholic cirrhosis in 39% and hepatitis C virus cirrhosis in 21.7%. De novo tumors were lung neoplasm in 4 patients (33.3%), lymphoma in 2 patients(16.7%), oropharynx in 2 patients (16.7%), skin tumors in 2 patients (16.7%), and a kidney tumor (8.3%) in 1 patient. As for hepatocellular carcinoma, 8 patients met Milan criteria on the explant (61.5%). Tacrolimus was discontinued in all cases. The average onset time of post-transplant EVR was 2231.42 days in the de novo neoplasms and 307.45 days in those receiving transplants because of hepatocellular carcinoma (P = .05). We observed 5 deaths (21.7%). CONCLUSION: Although the beneficial long-term role of EVR in liver transplant recipients with tumor disease is not demonstrated, it is used by most transplant units, both in de novo neoplasms and those receiving transplants because of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Analysis of rebleeding in cases of an upper gastrointestinal bleed in a single center series

Background: upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is one of the main causes of hospital admission in gastroenterology departments and is associated with a significant morbidity and mortality. Rebleeding after initial endoscopic therapy occurs in 10-20% of cases and therefore, there is a need to define predictive factors for rebleeding. Aim: the aim of our study was to analyze risk factors and outcomes in a population of patients who suffered a rebleed. Methods: five hundred and seven patients with gastrointestinal bleeding were included. Clinical and biochemical data, as well as procedures and outcome six months after admission, were all collected. Documented clinical outcome included in-hospital and six-month delayed mortality, rebleeding and six-month delayed hemorrhagic and cardiovascular events. Results: according to a logistic regression analysis, high creatinine levels were independent risk factors for rebleeding of non-variceal and variceal UGIB. In non-variceal UGIB, tachycardia was an independent risk factor, whereas albumin levels were an independent protective factor. Rebleeding was associated with in-hospital mortality (29.5% vs 5.5%; p < 0.0001). In contrast, rebleeding was not related to six-month delayed mortality or delayed cardiovascular and hemorrhagic events. Conclusions: tachycardia and high creatinine and albumin levels were independent factors associated with rebleeding, suggestive of a potential predictive role of these parameters. The incorporation of these variables into predictive scores may provide improved results for patients with UGIB. Further validation in prospective studies is required

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Analysis of rebleeding in cases of an upper gastrointestinal bleed in a single center series.

BACKGROUND: upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is one of the main causes of hospital admission in gastroenterology departments and is associated with a significant morbidity and mortality. Rebleeding after initial endoscopic therapy occurs in 10-20% of cases and therefore, there is a need to define predictive factors for rebleeding. AIM: the aim of our study was to analyze risk factors and outcomes in a population of patients who suffered a rebleed. METHODS: five hundred and seven patients with gastrointestinal bleeding were included. Clinical and biochemical data, as well as procedures and outcome six months after admission, were all collected. Documented clinical outcome included in-hospital and six-month delayed mortality, rebleeding and six-month delayed hemorrhagic and cardiovascular events. RESULTS: according to a logistic regression analysis, high creatinine levels were independent risk factors for rebleeding of non-variceal and variceal UGIB. In non-variceal UGIB, tachycardia was an independent risk factor, whereas albumin levels were an independent protective factor. Rebleeding was associated with in-hospital mortality (29.5% vs 5.5%; p < 0.0001). In contrast, rebleeding was not related to six-month delayed mortality or delayed cardiovascular and hemorrhagic events. CONCLUSIONS: tachycardia and high creatinine and albumin levels were independent factors associated with rebleeding, suggestive of a potential predictive role of these parameters. The incorporation of these variables into predictive scores may provide improved results for patients with UGIB. Further validation in prospective studies is required.