Place-based modelling of social vulnerability to COVID-19 in Nigeria.

COVID-19, within a short period of time, grew into a pandemic. The timely identification of places and populations at great risk of COVID-19 infection would aid disease control. In Nigeria, where a variety of recommended and adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions seem to have limited effectiveness, the number of cases is still increasing. To this end, this paper computed a social vulnerability to COVID-19 index (SoVI) in Nigeria within the local government area (LGA) framework with a view to revealing vulnerable places and populations. The study relied on several data sources and factor analysis for the development of the index. SoVI values ranged from 2.3 (least vulnerable) to 6.8 (most vulnerable). Three percent of the 774 LGAs were extremely vulnerable while 2% of these LGAs were least vulnerable to COVID-19. The predictive power of the index was confirmed to be strong (r = 0.812). Hopefully, the visual representation of place-based vulnerability to COVID-19 index should guide and direct the relevant authorities in the containment of further spread and vaccination coverage.

A Geographical Analysis of the African COVID-19 Paradox: Putting the Poverty-as-a-Vaccine Hypothesis to the Test.

The poverty-as-a-vaccine hypothesis came to light following the wide circulation of the controversial British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) World Service post on the internet and social media. It was a theoretical response to what this paper has termed as "the African COVID-19 paradox" or what some have characterised as the "African COVID-19 anomaly" whose thesis is though Africa is the poorest continent in the world, yet it has some of the lowest COVID-19 infection and mortality rates globally. This paradoxical profile apparently contradicts earlier and grim projections by several international bodies on the fate of Africa in this global health crisis. Given this background, we specifically tested the validity of the hypothesis from a geographic perspective within the spatial framework of Africa. Data came from secondary sources. Evidence truly points out a significant negative relationship between COVID-19 and poverty in Africa and thus statistically supports the poverty-as-a-vaccine hypothesis. However, this does not confirm that poverty confers immunity against COVID-19 but it implicitly shows there are complex factors responsible for the anomaly. The main conclusion of the paper is that poverty has no protective immunity against COVID-19 in Africa and is therefore not tenable.

Geographical patterns and effects of human and mechanical factors on road traffic crashes in Nigeria.

Road traffic crashes (RTCs) remain an issue of global concern particularly in Nigeria where over 80 percent of these crashes are accounted by human and mechanical factors (HM). Many geographic studies on RTCs, fatality and injury have largely focused on the spatial clustering and associative analysis of risk factors; with little known about the relative contribution of HM factors within the spatial context. Hence, this study applied a spatial approach to the effect of HM factors on RTCs, fatality and injury across the regions of Nigeria. The data for this study were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics for the year 2017-2019 and were analysed using spatial analysis techniques such as Global Moran's I and spatial regression model. There was evidence of geographic clustering of RTCs, fatality and injury in Nigeria. On one hand, route violation and sleeping on steering were significant predictors in southern Nigeria while tyre burst was significant at the national level, in the north and rural areas. The use of mobile phone while driving was a significant predictor at the national level. On the other hand, overloading was associated with RTCs and injuries at the national level and northern Nigeria. Speed violation was a prominent risk factor across the country. The study, based on observed regional differentials, argues that extant laws and regulations on traffic safety should be strictly enforced to curtail RTCs in the country.

A retrospective cross-national examination of COVID-19 outbreak in 175 countries: a multiscale geographically weighted regression analysis (January 11-June 28, 2020).

OBJECTIVE: This study retrospectively examined the health and social determinants of the COVID-19 outbreak in 175 countries from a spatial epidemiological approach. METHODS: We used spatial analysis to examine the cross-national determinants of confirmed cases of COVID-19 based on the World Health Organization official COVID-19 data and the World Bank Indicators of Interest to the COVID-19 outbreak. All models controlled for COVID-19 government measures. RESULTS: The percentage of the population age between 15-64 years (Age15-64), percentage smokers (SmokTot.), and out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPExp) significantly explained global variation in the current COVID-19 outbreak in 175 countries. The percentage population age group 15-64 and out of pocket expenditure were positively associated with COVID-19. Conversely, the percentage of the total population who smoke was inversely associated with COVID-19 at the global level. CONCLUSIONS: This study is timely and could serve as a potential geospatial guide to developing public health and epidemiological surveillance programs for the outbreak in multiple countries. Removal of catastrophic medical expenditure, smoking cessation, and observing public health guidelines will not only reduce illness related to COVID-19 but also prevent unecessary deaths.

Fertility knowledge, contraceptive use and unintentional pregnancy in 29 African countries: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between incorrect knowledge of ovulation and unintentional pregnancy and child among young women in sub-Saharan Africa countries. METHODS: Using Pearson's Chi-square, t test, multiple logistic regression, and likelihood ratio test, we analyzed Demographic and Health Survey data (2008-2017) of 169,939 young women (15-24 year). RESULTS: The range of prevalence of incorrect knowledge of ovulation was 51% in Comoros and 89.6% in Sao Tome and Principe, while unintentional pregnancy ranged between 9.4% in the Republic of Benin and 59.6% in Namibia. The multivariate result indicates a strong association between incorrect knowledge of ovulation and unintentional pregnancy (OR = 1.17; p < 0.05) and unintentional child (OR = 1.15; p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent women (15-19) generally have poor knowledge of ovulation and are more likely to report an unintentional pregnancy/child than women between ages 20-24. To reduce the burden of unintentional child/pregnancy in Africa, fertility knowledge should not only be improved on but must consider the sociocultural context of women in different countries that might affect the adoption of such intervention programs. Pragmatic efforts, such as building community support for young women to discuss and share their experiences with professionals and educate them on fertility and sexuality, are essential.

Regional variation and demographic factors associated with knowledge of malaria risk and prevention strategies among pregnant women in Nigeria.

Pregnant women and children are the most vulnerable populations for malaria infection. Yet, knowledge of risk, and preventive measures are poor among this population. Using the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey, we applied logit link function to estimate the associations of wealth status, educational attainment, and region of residence with malaria risk knowledge and prevention strategies (using a treated mosquito net and malaria drugs) among 739 Nigerian pregnant women aged 15-49 years. Urban women who had obtained a secondary school education (Adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-4) or higher (aOR = 8.31; 95% CI 3.2-22) had more knowledge of malaria risk. Urban women in the South-West (aOR = 5.02; [CI] 2.02-12.50) and South-East (aOR = 2.68; 95% CI 1.19-6.06) were more likely to use treated mosquito nets during pregnancy. Women in the urban South-West (aOR = 4.04; 95% CI 1.5-11) were more likely to use malaria drugs during pregnancy than those in the North-Central. A wide regional disparity in the knowledge of malaria risks and use of preventive measures exists. Thus, promoting equal access to malaria preventive measures as well as improving knowledge about malaria transmission by mosquitoes should be considered as essential components of ongoing malaria control and elimination efforts in Nigeria.

A geographical analysis of ethnic distribution of jaw ameloblastoma in Nigerians.

INTRODUCTION: Ameloblastoma is the most common odontogenic tumour in Nigeria. A definite geographic variation has been observed in the frequency of odontogenic tumors from different parts of the world. However, there is no study on the regional variations in Nigeria. Hence, this study was designed to document the ethnic and geographical distribution of jaw ameloblastoma in Nigeria. METHODS: Archival data on ameloblastoma from 10 health facilities were obtained. Global Moran's I detected geographic clustering in its distribution while Local Getis Ord indicated the location of ameloblastoma clusters. Chi-square tested associations between variables at 0.05 level of significance. RESULTS: A total of 1,246 ameloblastoma cases were recorded in Nigeria. Besides substantial state variations, a South-North gradient was noticed in its distribution. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was observed in the three major groups while ameloblastoma hotspots were found in the SouthWestern and Northwestern Nigeria. The Igbos had a higher prevalence of ameloblastoma outside their home region than within. CONCLUSION: The study hypothesized that the geographical distribution of ameloblastoma in Nigeria is the result of all or one of the following: the country's tropical climate, migration patterns and health seeking behavior. Hopefully, these claims should lead to further enquiry on the underlying causes.

Biological profile of ameloblastoma and its location in the jaw in 1246 Nigerians.

OBJECTIVES: Ameloblastoma is a benign, slow-growing, locally invasive epithelial tumor of odontogenic origin, with unlimited growth capacity and a strong tendency to recur. This multicentric study analyzed ameloblastoma diagnosed in Nigeria among different ethnic groups. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective study included ameloblastoma cases diagnosed from 1964 to 2017 at 10 hospitals or medical centers in Nigeria. Age, sex, tribe, and location of the ameloblastoma in the jaw were analyzed. Associations between variables were tested by using χ2 and Fisher's exact test. RESULTS: A total of 1246 ameloblastoma cases were recorded (mean patient age 32.51 ± 14.54 years; range 4-86 years; male-to-female ratio 1.2:1). Approximately 60% of ameloblastoma cases occurred in young adults (age range 18-40 years). Ninety-eight lesions were located in the maxilla and 1103 in the mandible; the posterior mandible was the most common site (31.3% on the right and 26.5% on the left, respectively), followed by the anterior (26.0%) mandible. No significant differences were noted in the distribution of ameloblastoma within the tribes with respect to age (P = .92) and sex (P = .71). CONCLUSIONS: The mandible is a common site of ameloblastoma in patients in Nigeria, and in most cases, it occurs in young adults. Early presentation, diagnosis, and treatment are important to reduce postoperative disfigurement and morbidity.