Defining a screening tool for post-traumatic stress disorder in East Africa: a penalized regression approach.

Background: Scalable PTSD screening strategies must be brief, accurate and capable of administration by a non-specialized workforce. Methods: We used PTSD as determined by the structured clinical interview as our gold standard and considered predictors sets of (a) Posttraumatic Stress Checklist-5 (PCL-5), (b) Primary Care PTSD Screen for the DSM-5 (PC-PTSD) and, (c) PCL-5 and PC-PTSD questions to identify the optimal items for PTSD screening for public sector settings in Kenya. A logistic regression model using LASSO was fit by minimizing the average squared error in the validation data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) measured discrimination performance. Results: Penalized regression analysis suggested a screening tool that sums the Likert scale values of two PCL-5 questions-intrusive thoughts of the stressful experience (#1) and insomnia (#21). This had an AUROC of 0.85 (using hold-out test data) for predicting PTSD as evaluated by the MINI, which outperformed the PC-PTSD. The AUROC was similar in subgroups defined by age, sex, and number of categories of trauma experienced (all AUROCs>0.83) except those with no trauma history- AUROC was 0.78. Conclusion: In some East African settings, a 2-item PTSD screening tool may outperform longer screeners and is easily scaled by a non-specialist workforce.

Implementation research for public sector mental health care scale-up (SMART-DAPPER): a sequential multiple, assignment randomized trial (SMART) of non-specialist-delivered psychotherapy and/or medication for major depressive disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder (DAPPER) integrated with outpatient care clinics at a county hospital in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Mental disorders are a leading cause of global disability, driven primarily by depression and anxiety. Most of the disease burden is in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs), where 75% of adults with mental disorders have no service access. Our research team has worked in western Kenya for nearly ten years. Primary care populations in Kenya have high prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). To address these treatment needs with a sustainable, scalable mental health care strategy, we are partnering with local and national mental health stakeholders in Kenya and Uganda to identify 1) evidence-based strategies for first-line and second-line treatment delivered by non-specialists integrated with primary care, 2) investigate presumed mediators of treatment outcome and 3) determine patient-level moderators of treatment effect to inform personalized, resource-efficient, non-specialist treatments and sequencing, with costing analyses. Our implementation approach is guided by the Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, Sustainment (EPIS) framework. METHODS/DESIGN: We will use a Sequential, Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) to randomize 2710 patients from the outpatient clinics at Kisumu County Hospital (KCH) who have MDD, PTSD or both to either 12 weekly sessions of non-specialist-delivered Interpersonal Psychotherapy (IPT) or to 6 months of fluoxetine prescribed by a nurse or clinical officer. Participants who are not in remission at the conclusion of treatment will be re-randomized to receive the other treatment (IPT receives fluoxetine and vice versa) or to combination treatment (IPT and fluoxetine). The SMART-DAPPER Implementation Resource Team, (IRT) will drive the application of the EPIS model and adaptations during the course of the study to optimize the relevance of the data for generalizability and scale -up. DISCUSSION: The results of this research will be significant in three ways: 1) they will determine the effectiveness of non-specialist delivered first- and second-line treatment for MDD and/or PTSD, 2) they will investigate key mechanisms of action for each treatment and 3) they will produce tailored adaptive treatment strategies essential for optimal sequencing of treatment for MDD and/or PTSD in low resource settings with associated cost information - a critical gap for addressing a leading global cause of disability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03466346, registered March 15, 2018.