Current and future burden from Lyme disease in Québec as a result of climate change.

Context: Environmental changes will foster the spread of Ixodes scapularis ticks and increase the incidence of Lyme disease in Québec in the coming years. The objective of this study is to estimate the epidemiological and clinical burden and part of the current economic burden of Lyme disease in Québec and to estimate the number of cases expected by 2050. Methods: Cases of Lyme disease reported in Québec from 2015 to 2019 were used to describe their demographic, geographical and clinical characteristics and the cost of their initial care. Three incidence rate scenarios were then developed to estimate the number of cases expected by 2050, based on demographic and climate projections. Results: From 2016 to 2019, 1,473 cases of Lyme disease were reported in Québec. Over 90% of those cases were acquired in two regions of southern Québec (Estrie and Montérégie), while the individuals infected were residents from all over Québec. The average age of cases is 44 years and 66% of infections were at the localized stage, the first stage of Lyme disease. The cost of initial care is estimated at an average of $182 CAN per patient ($47 CAN at the localized stage and $443 CAN at the disseminated stage). According to projections, over 95% of the Québec population will live in a climate zone conducive to the establishment of ticks by 2050, with a number of cases acquired in Québec being 1.3 to 14.5 times higher than in 2019, depending on the incidence rate scenario used. Conclusion: The epidemiological burden is concentrated primarily in southern Québec, but the clinical and economic burden is already distributed throughout the province. The projections for 2050 should help the regions of Québec adapt and optimize public health protection measures.

A meteorological-based forecasting model for predicting minimal infection rates in Culex pipiens-restuans complex using Québec's West Nile virus integrated surveillance system.

Background: The ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux (MSSS) du Québec (Québec's health authority) has expressed an interest in the development of an early warning tool to identify seasonal human outbreaks of West Nile virus infection in order to modulate public health interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if a user-friendly meteorological-based forecasting tool could be used to predict minimal infection rates for the Culex pipiens-restuans complex-a proxy of human risk-ahead of mosquito season. Methods: Annual minimal infection rate (number of positive pools/number of mosquitoes) was calculated for 856 mosquito traps set from 2003 to 2006 and 2013 to 2018 throughout the south of Québec's. Coefficient of determination (R2) were estimated using the validation dataset (one third of the database by random selection) with generalized estimation equations, which were prior fitted backwards with polynomial terms using the training dataset (two thirds of the database), in order to minimize the Bayesian information criteria. Mean temperatures and precipitation were grouped at five temporal scales (by month, by season and by 4, 6 and 10-months groupings). Results: Mean temperatures and cumulative precipitation from the previous months of March (R2=0.37), May (R2=0.36), December (R2=0.35) and the autumn season (R2=0.38) accounted for ~40% of Cx. pipiens-restuans annual minimal infection rates variations. Including the "year of sampling" variable in all regression models increased the predictive abilities (R2 between 0.42 and 0.57). Conclusion: All regression models explored have too weak predictive abilities to be useful as a public health tool. Other factors implicated in the epidemiology of the West Nile virus need to be incorporated in a meteorological-based early warning model for it to be useful to the provincial health authorities.

Economic Burden of West Nile Virus Disease, Quebec, Canada, 2012-2013.

The economic burden of West Nile virus (WNV) infection is not known for Canada. We sought to describe the direct and indirect costs of WNV infection in the province of Quebec, Canada, up to 2 years after onset of signs and symptoms. We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included WNV cases reported during 2012 and 2013. For 90 persons infected with WNV, persons with encephalitis accounted for the largest proportion of total cost: a median cost of $21,332 per patient compared with $8,124 for West Nile meningitis (p = 0.0004) and $192 for West Nile fever (p<0.0001). When results were extrapolated to all reported WNV patients, the estimated total cost for 124 symptomatic cases was ≈$1.7 million for 2012 and that for 31 symptomatic cases was ≈$430,000 for 2013. Our study provides information for the government to make informed decisions regarding public health policies and infectious diseases prevention and control programs.

The early impact of human papillomavirus vaccination on anogenital warts in Québec, Canada.

In Québec province in Canada, a public school-based and catch-up HPV vaccination programs with the quadrivalent vaccine have been introduced in September 2008 for girls aged 9-17 years. We assessed the early impact of the HPV vaccination program on the incidence of anogenital warts (AGW) in the Quebec general population. We used the provincial health administrative data of the Régie de l'assurance maladie du Québec (RAMQ). AGW were identified either through a prescription of podofilox, or a medical procedure code specific to AGW, or a diagnostic code for viral warts followed by a prescription of imiquimod or fluorouracil. Sex- and age-specific incidence rates were calculated for pre-vaccination (2004-2007) and vaccination (2009-2012) periods. We found a significant decline of 45% and 19% in the incidence of AGWs among females aged 15-19 and 20-24 years, respectively. A decline of 21% was also seen among males aged 15-19 years. The median age at an episode of AGW increased from 27 years in 2004 to 31 years in 2012 among females and remained stable in males. Our findings indicate that the HPV public vaccination program is associated with an important reduction in the incidence of AGW among young females and males. The benefit is more pronounced among females 15-19 years of age, who were eligible for the public vaccination program. The observed decline among young males could be due to herd immunity and/or privately paid vaccination.

Temporal trends in genital warts among individuals covered by the public prescription drug insurance plan in the province of Quebec, Canada, from 1998 to 2007.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed temporal trend in the incidence and prevalence of genital warts (GWs) in the province of Quebec, Canada, between 1998 and 2007 as a baseline for future assessment of the impact of Quebec human papillomavirus vaccination program. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on GWs were obtained from the linkage of the physician service claims and the public insurance drug plan databases. Genital warts were identified through a prescription of podofilox, a medical procedure code specific to GWs or a diagnosis code for viral warts followed by a prescription of imiquimod or fluorouracil within 2 weeks. An episode was considered incident if it was preceded by a 12-month interval period free of GWs care. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 27,138 episodes of GWs occurred among 24,267 individuals. The age-standardized incidence rate increased over time in men and women. The highest incidence was observed in women aged 20 to 24 years (391.9/100,000) and in men aged 25 to 29 years (383.3/100,000). Similar trends in prevalence were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and prevalence of GWs has increased among the population covered by the public insurance drug plan in Quebec.

Short and long-term safety of the 2009 AS03-adjuvanted pandemic vaccine.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the short and the long term safety of the 2009 AS03 adjuvanted monovalent pandemic vaccine through an active web-based electronic surveillance. We compared its safety profile to that of the seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) for 2010-2011. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Health care workers (HCW) vaccinated in 2009 with the pandemic vaccine (Arepanrix ® from GSK) or HCW vaccinated in 2010 with the 2010-2011 TIV were invited to participate in a web-based active surveillance of vaccine safety. They completed two surveys the day-8 survey covered the first 7 days post-vaccination and the day-29 survey covered events occurring 8 to 28 days after vaccination. Those who reported a problem were called by a nurse to obtain details. The main outcome was the occurrence of a new health problem or the worsening of an existing health condition that resulted in a medical consultation or work absenteeism. For the pandemic vaccine, a six-month follow-up for the occurrence of serious adverse events (SAE) was conducted. Among the 6242 HCW who received the pandemic vaccine, 440 (7%) reported 468 events compared to 328 of the 7645 HCW (4.3%) who reported 339 events after the seasonal vaccine. The 2009 pandemic vaccine was associated with significantly more local reactions than the 2010-2011 seasonal vaccine (1% vs. 0.03%, p<0.001). Paresthesia was reported by 7 HCW (0.1%) after the pandemic vaccine but by none after the seasonal vaccine. For the pandemic vaccine, no clustering of SAE was found in the 6 month follow-up. CONCLUSION: The 2009 pandemic vaccine seems to have a good safety profile, similar to the 2010-2011 TIV, with the exception of local reactions. This surveillance was adequately powered to identify AE associated with an excess risk ≥1 per 1000 vaccinations but is insufficient to detect rare AE. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01289418, NCT01318876.

Comparison of risk factors for human metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus disease severity in young children.

BACKGROUND: Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are leading pediatric pathogens. However, risk factors for severe hMPV disease remain unknown. We comparatively assessed environmental, host, and viral determinants for severe hMPV and RSV infections. METHODS: We studied a prospective cohort of >1000 children aged <3 years hospitalized in or presenting to a pediatric clinic for acute respiratory infection. We collected clinical data at enrollment and 1-month follow-up and tested nasopharyngeal secretions for respiratory viruses. Disease severity was defined as hospitalization and was also assessed with a severity score (1 point/variable) calculated on the basis of fraction of inhaled O(2) ≥ 30%, hospitalization >5 days, and pediatric intensive care unit admission. RESULTS: hMPV was identified in 58 of 305 outpatient children (19.0%) and 69 of 734 hospitalized children (9.4%), second only to RSV (48.2% and 63.6%, respectively). In multivariate regression analysis of hMPV cases, age <6 months and household crowding were associated with hospitalization. Among hospitalized patients, risk factors for severe hMPV disease were female sex, prematurity, and genotype B infection. Age <6 months, comorbidities, and household crowding were risk factors for RSV hospitalization; breast-feeding and viral coinfection were protective. Age <6 months and prematurity were associated with severe RSV cases among hospitalized children. CONCLUSIONS: hMPV and RSV severity risk factors may differ slightly. These findings will inform hMPV prevention strategies.

Risk factors for hospitalization and severe outcomes of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Quebec, Canada.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: This case-control study was carried out to estimate risk factors associated with hospitalizations and severe outcomes [intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death] among patients with illness because of laboratory-confirmed 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 virus (pH1N1) during the first wave of pH1N1 activity in the province of Quebec, Canada. PATIENTS/METHODS: We collected epidemiologic information by phone using a standardized questionnaire from patients with laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 illness during the first spring/summer pandemic wave in Quebec, Canada. Risk factors associated with hospitalization were assessed by comparing hospitalized to community cases and for ICU admission or death through comparison with hospitalized cases. RESULTS: Cases (321 hospitalized patients including 47 ICU admissions and 15 deaths) were compared to controls (395 non-hospitalized patients) by using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for gender, age, education, being a health care worker, smoking, seasonal influenza vaccination, delay to consultation, antiviral use before admission, pregnancy, underlying medical conditions, and obesity. Age <5 years, underlying medical conditions (neuromuscular, cardiac, pulmonary, and renal conditions, diabetes, asthma, and other), and delayed consultation were associated with hospitalization. The strongest association with hospitalization was observed for neuromuscular disorders. Antiviral medication before hospital admission protected against severe disease. Association of obesity with hospitalization was not significant after adjustment in multivariable analysis. Among hospitalized patients, age ≥60 years and immune suppression were associated with death. CONCLUSIONS: Previously identified risk factors for seasonal influenza were also associated with increased risk of severe pH1N1 outcomes. The independent role of obesity needs to be further defined.

Trends in postacute myocardial infarction management and mortality in patients with diabetes. A population-based study from 1995 to 2001.

OBJECTIVE: To compare trends in coronary revascularization use and case fatality rate (CFR) following acute myocardial infarction in patients with and without diabetes. METHODS: A retrospective study of 77,552 patients, 20 years of age or older (25% with diabetes), who were hospitalized for a first acute myocardial infarction in the province of Quebec between April 1995 and December 2001 was conducted. Administrative databases were used to identify patients and assess outcomes. RESULTS: Compared with patients without diabetes, patients with diabetes underwent more coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgeries (11.1% versus 8.3%; P<0.0001) but fewer percutaneous coronary interventions (17.1% versus 20.2%; P<0.0001). The use of percutaneous coronary intervention increased substantially over time in both populations, driven mainly by an increase during the index admission (20.6% versus 16.6% per year; P=0.1144 in patients with and without diabetes, respectively). The use of CABG during the index admission increased markedly among patients with diabetes compared with those without (10.3% versus 5.3% per year; P=0.0072); however, at one-year following discharge, CABG use remained stable in patients with diabetes and fell in those without (-0.7% versus -5.3% per year; P=0.2046). Concomitantly, patients with diabetes presented a similar decline in CFR compared with patients without diabetes. The decline was more pronounced during the index admission (-5.0% versus -4.1% per year; P=0.282) than at one-year following discharge (-2.5% versus -2.5% per year; P=0.629) in patients with and without diabetes, respectively. However, fatal outcome remained higher in patients with diabetes than without, with an adjusted RR of 1.21 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.24) at one-year follow-up. CONCLUSION: Overall, coronary revascularization use and CFR improved over time in patients with diabetes. Nevertheless, the mortality rate in patients with diabetes remains higher than in patients without diabetes, indicating that additional progress is required to improve the poorer prognosis in this population.

Association between the 2008-09 seasonal influenza vaccine and pandemic H1N1 illness during Spring-Summer 2009: four observational studies from Canada.

BACKGROUND: In late spring 2009, concern was raised in Canada that prior vaccination with the 2008-09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) was associated with increased risk of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) illness. Several epidemiologic investigations were conducted through the summer to assess this putative association. STUDIES INCLUDED: (1) test-negative case-control design based on Canada's sentinel vaccine effectiveness monitoring system in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec; (2) conventional case-control design using population controls in Quebec; (3) test-negative case-control design in Ontario; and (4) prospective household transmission (cohort) study in Quebec. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for TIV effect on community- or hospital-based laboratory-confirmed seasonal or pH1N1 influenza cases compared to controls with restriction, stratification, and adjustment for covariates including combinations of age, sex, comorbidity, timeliness of medical visit, prior physician visits, and/or health care worker (HCW) status. For the prospective study risk ratios were computed. Based on the sentinel study of 672 cases and 857 controls, 2008-09 TIV was associated with statistically significant protection against seasonal influenza (odds ratio 0.44, 95% CI 0.33-0.59). In contrast, estimates from the sentinel and three other observational studies, involving a total of 1,226 laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 cases and 1,505 controls, indicated that prior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009, with estimated risk or odds ratios ranging from 1.4 to 2.5. Risk of pH1N1 hospitalization was not further increased among vaccinated people when comparing hospitalized to community cases. CONCLUSIONS: Prior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009 in Canada. The occurrence of bias (selection, information) or confounding cannot be ruled out. Further experimental and epidemiological assessment is warranted. Possible biological mechanisms and immunoepidemiologic implications are considered.

Breast cancer survivors accurately reported key treatment and prognostic characteristics.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Medical records are considered the gold standard for information on cancer treatments and prognosis. We compared survivor self-report and medical records for agreement on key treatment and prognostic characteristics. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A population-based study was conducted in Quebec assessing work experience among breast cancer survivors aged <60 years at diagnosis. Data came from a single telephone interview 3.4 +/- 0.2 years after diagnosis. Medical record data were available for 103 out of 646 participants. RESULTS: Agreement of self-report with medical record data was very high for treatments (breast surgery, type of mastectomy, axillary dissection, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, hormone therapy, reconstruction, bone marrow transplantation). Kappa values varied from 0.89 for axillary dissection to 1.00 for breast surgery. Kappa values for number of invaded nodes (0, 1-3, >/=4, unknown) was slightly lower (0.85) but was still excellent. When accepting answers +/-1 month of the medical record date, >/=89% of women correctly reported different treatment dates. CONCLUSION: These results provide evidence of the validity of summary treatment and prognostic data reported by breast cancer survivors 3 years after diagnosis. Survivors can likely accurately describe the treatment trajectory and key prognostic information when medical record review is unfeasible. These findings may need replication among older women.

Thyroid function of newborns and exposure to chlorine dioxide by-products.

In this study, the authors compared thyroid function of newborns from 11 municipalities where drinking water was disinfected by chlorine dioxide (ClO2) with that of newborns from 15 municipalities using chlorine disinfection. They estimated the mean neonatal blood thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) levels and proportion of congenital hypothyroidism cases using the results of the Quebec neonatal screening for congenital hypothyroidism for 32,978 newborns over the period 1993-1999. There was no significant increase in the TSH level and no excess of congenital hypothyroidism when all newborns exposed to ClO2 were considered. However, for newborns with low birth weight, mean TSH level was significantly higher among those exposed to ClO2 than for those in the reference group.