Socioeconomic, Demographic, and Environmental Factors May Inform Malaria Intervention Prioritization in Urban Nigeria.

Urban population growth in Nigeria may exceed the availability of affordable housing and basic services, resulting in living conditions conducive to vector breeding and heterogeneous malaria transmission. Understanding the link between community-level factors and urban malaria transmission informs targeted interventions. We analyzed Demographic and Health Survey Program cluster-level data, alongside geospatial covariates, to describe variations in malaria prevalence in children under 5 years of age. Univariate and multivariable models explored the relationship between malaria test positivity rates at the cluster level and community-level factors. Generally, malaria test positivity rates in urban areas are low and declining. The factors that best predicted malaria test positivity rates within a multivariable model were post-primary education, wealth quintiles, population density, access to improved housing, child fever treatment-seeking, precipitation, and enhanced vegetation index. Malaria transmission in urban areas will likely be reduced by addressing socioeconomic and environmental factors that promote exposure to disease vectors. Enhanced regional surveillance systems in Nigeria can provide detailed data to further refine our understanding of these factors in relation to malaria transmission.

Description of the design of a mixed-methods study to assess the burden and determinants of malaria transmission for tailoring of interventions (microstratification) in Ibadan and Kano metropolis.

BACKGROUND: Rapid urbanization in Nigerian cities may lead to localized variations in malaria transmission, particularly with a higher burden in informal settlements and slums. However, there is a lack of available data to quantify the variations in transmission risk at the city level and inform the selection of appropriate interventions. To bridge this gap, field studies will be undertaken in Ibadan and Kano, two major Nigerian cities. These studies will involve a blend of cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological research, coupled with longitudinal entomological studies. The primary objective is to gain insights into the variation of malaria risk at the smallest administrative units, known as wards, within these cities. METHODS/RESULTS: The findings will contribute to the tailoring of interventions as part of Nigeria's National Malaria Strategic Plan. The study design incorporates a combination of model-based clustering and on-site visits for ground-truthing, enabling the identification of environmental archetypes at the ward-level to establish the study's framework. Furthermore, community participatory approaches will be utilized to refine study instruments and sampling strategies. The data gathered through cross-sectional and longitudinal studies will contribute to an enhanced understanding of malaria risk in the metropolises of Kano and Ibadan. CONCLUSIONS: This paper outlines pioneering field study methods aimed at collecting data to inform the tailoring of malaria interventions in urban settings. The integration of multiple study types will provide valuable data for mapping malaria risk and comprehending the underlying determinants. Given the importance of location-specific data for microstratification, this study presents a systematic process and provides adaptable tools that can be employed in cities with limited data availability.

Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: For their 2021-2025 National Malaria Strategic Plan (NMSP), Nigeria's National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP), in partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO), developed a targeted approach to intervention deployment at the local government area (LGA) level as part of the High Burden to High Impact response. Mathematical models of malaria transmission were used to predict the impact of proposed intervention strategies on malaria burden. METHODS: An agent-based model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission was used to simulate malaria morbidity and mortality in Nigeria's 774 LGAs under four possible intervention strategies from 2020 to 2030. The scenarios represented the previously implemented plan (business-as-usual), the NMSP at an 80% or higher coverage level and two prioritized plans according to the resources available to Nigeria. LGAs were clustered into 22 epidemiological archetypes using monthly rainfall, temperature suitability index, vector abundance, pre-2010 parasite prevalence, and pre-2010 vector control coverage. Routine incidence data were used to parameterize seasonality in each archetype. Each LGA's baseline malaria transmission intensity was calibrated to parasite prevalence in children under the age of five years measured in the 2010 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). Intervention coverage in the 2010-2019 period was obtained from the Demographic and Health Survey, MIS, the NMEP, and post-campaign surveys. RESULTS: Pursuing a business-as-usual strategy was projected to result in a 5% and 9% increase in malaria incidence in 2025 and 2030 compared with 2020, while deaths were projected to remain unchanged by 2030. The greatest intervention impact was associated with the NMSP scenario with 80% or greater coverage of standard interventions coupled with intermittent preventive treatment in infants and extension of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) to 404 LGAs, compared to 80 LGAs in 2019. The budget-prioritized scenario with SMC expansion to 310 LGAs, high bed net coverage with new formulations, and increase in effective case management rate at the same pace as historical levels was adopted as an adequate alternative for the resources available. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamical models can be applied for relative assessment of the impact of intervention scenarios but improved subnational data collection systems are required to allow increased confidence in predictions at sub-national level.

Factors associated with the ownership and use of insecticide-treated nets in Guinea: an analysis of the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a leading cause of outpatient visits and deaths among children in Guinea. Despite several mass distribution campaigns of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in Guinea, ITN ownership and use remain low. Identifying the underlying factors affecting household ITN ownership and ITN usage among those with access will allow the Guinea National Malaria Control Programme to develop targeted initiatives to improve bed net ownership and usage. METHODS: To understand national and regional drivers of ITN ownership and use, multivariable binary logistic regression models were applied to data from the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey to identify risk factors of household ITN ownership and risk factors of ITN use among individuals with access. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used for model parameter selection. Odds ratios were estimated with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: The proportion of households in Guinea with at least one ITN was 44%, ranging from a low of 25% in Conakry to a high of 54% in Labé. Use of ITNs among those with access was 66.1% nationally, ranging from 35.2% in Labé to 89.7% in N'zérékoré. Risk factors for household ITN ownership were household size, marital status of the household head, education level of the household head, and region. For ITN use among those with access, risk factors were age, wealth quintile, marital status, and region. In the seven regions of Guinea and capital of Conakry, risk factors for household ITN ownership were household size in Boké, Faranah, and Kankan; education level of the household head in Boké, Faranah, and N'zérékoré; age of the household head in Conakry and Labé; children under five in the household in Kankan; and wealth quintile in Mamou. For ITN use among those with access, risk factors were marital status in Conakry, Faranah, Kindia, Labé, Mamou, and N'zérékoré; place of residence in Labé; children under five in the household in Labé; wealth quintile in Mamou; and age in Faranah and N'zérékoré. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis identified national and region-specific factors that affect ownership and use among those with access in Guinea. Future ITN and social-behavioural change campaigns in Guinea may particularly want to target larger households, households without children, and areas with lower perceived risk of malaria if universal coverage and usage are to be achieved for optimal malaria prevention.

Beyond national indicators: adapting the Demographic and Health Surveys' sampling strategies and questions to better inform subnational malaria intervention policy.

In malaria-endemic countries, prioritizing intervention deployment to areas that need the most attention is crucial to ensure continued progress. Global and national policy makers increasingly rely on epidemiological data and mathematical modelling to help optimize health decisions at the sub-national level. The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program is a critical data source for understanding subnational malaria prevalence and intervention coverage, which are used for parameterizing country-specific models of malaria transmission. However, data to estimate indicators at finer resolutions are limited, and surveys questions have a narrow scope. Examples from the Nigeria DHS are used to highlight gaps in the current survey design. Proposals are then made for additional questions and expansions to the DHS and Malaria Indicator Survey sampling strategy that would advance the data analyses and modelled estimates that inform national policy recommendations. Collaboration between the DHS Program, national malaria control programmes, the malaria modelling community, and funders is needed to address the highlighted data challenges.

Is the positive association between middle-income and rich household wealth and adult sub-Saharan African women's overweight status modified by the level of education attainment? A cross-sectional study of 22 countries.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies show a positive association between household wealth and overweight in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries; however, the manner in which this relationship differs in the presence of educational attainment has not been well-established. This study examined the multiplicative effect modification of educational attainment on the association between middle-income and rich household wealth and overweight status among adult females in 22 SSA countries. We hypothesized that household wealth was associated with a greater likelihood of being overweight among middle income and rich women with lower levels of educational attainment compared to those with higher levels of educational attainment. METHODS: Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 2006 to 2016 for women aged 18-49 years in SSA countries were used for the study. Overweight was defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m2. Household wealth index tertile was the exposure and educational attainment, the effect modifier. Potential confounders included age, ethnicity, place of residence, and parity. Descriptive analysis was conducted, and separate logistic regression models were fitted for each of the 22 SSA countries to compute measures of effect modification and 95% confidence intervals. Analysis of credibility (AnCred) methods were applied to assess the intrinsic credibility of the study findings and guide statistical inference. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight ranged from 12.6% in Chad to 56.6% in Swaziland. Eighteen of the 22 SSA countries had measures of effect modification below one in at least one wealth tertile. This included eight of the 12 low-income countries and all 10 middle income countries. This implied that the odds of overweight were greater among middle-income and rich women with lower levels of educational attainment than those with higher educational attainment. On the basis of the AnCred analysis, it was found that the majority of the study findings across the region provided some support for the study hypothesis. CONCLUSIONS: Women in higher wealth strata and with lower levels of educational attainment appear to be more vulnerable to overweight compared to those in the same wealth strata but with higher levels of educational attainment in most low- and middle- income SSA countries.

Country-Level Analysis of the Association between Maternal Obesity and Neonatal Mortality in 34 Sub-Saharan African Countries.

Background: Prior work examining the association of maternal obesity and neonatal mortality indicate the presence of a positive relationship. However, regional evidence to provide insight on country-level heterogeneities within sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with nationally representative datasets are non-existent. Objective: We aimed to determine the relationship between maternal obesity and neonatal mortality at the country level in SSA countries. Moreover, we also estimate regional measures of association to complement previous findings. Methods: Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 34 SSA countries conducted from 2006-2016 were used for this study. After missing data (36.9% of cases) were addressed with multiple imputations, we identified a total of 175,860 women for the analysis. Complete case and multiply imputed datasets were analyzed individually with multilevel logistic regression models. Potential confounders adjusted for in the regression model included maternal age, level of educational attainment, area of residence, access to prenatal care, birth order and multiple birth (singleton vs twin birth). Regional and country-specific associations were computed, and unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (ORs), along with the confidence intervals (CIs) were reported. Findings: Of the total study population, 8,451 (7.6%) were obese. In the regional level analyses, maternal obesity was associated with 40% increased odds of neonatal deaths. This finding was consistent in subgroup analyses by urban and rural residence, and geographic region of residence in SSA. Additionally, obese women were more likely to report neonatal death in the first week of life (OR, days 0-1: 1.39, 95% CI 1.15-1.69; OR, days 2-6: 1.35, 95% CI 1.02-1.79). In the individual country analyses, majority of the countries studied had central estimates supporting elevated odds of neonatal mortality, but the confidence intervals were imprecise. Conclusion: This study highlights the potential burden of neonatal mortality borne by obese women in SSA. There is, however, a need for longitudinal studies to confirm the results.

A qualitative research synthesis of contextual factors contributing to female overweight and obesity over the life course in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: Adult women are disproportionately affected by overweight and obesity in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Existing evidence on the sociocultural context remains unconsolidated. In this qualitative research synthesis, we aggregate research literature on contextual factors that potentially predispose adult women and adolescent girls to overweight and obesity to inform research, policies and programs over the life course. METHODS: PubMed, CINAHL, PsychInfo, ProQuest Central, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched to locate qualitative research articles conducted in SSA countries beginning in the year 2000. After assessment for eligibility and critical appraisal, 17 studies were included in the synthesis. Textual data and quotes were synthesized using meta-aggregation methods proposed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. RESULTS: The synthesized studies were conducted in South Africa, Ghana, Kenya and Botswana. The three overarching themes across these studies were body size and shape ideals, barriers to healthy eating, and barriers to physical activity, with cultural and social factors as cross-cutting influences within the major themes. Culturally, the supposedly ideal African woman was expected to be overweight or obese, and voluptuous, and this was associated with their identity. Although being overweight or obese was not acceptable to adolescent girls, they desired to be voluptuous. Healthy food choices among women and adolescent girls were hampered by several factors including affordability of nutritious foods and peer victimization. Both adult women and adolescent girls experienced ageism as a barrier to physical activity. SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first qualitative research synthesis to amplify the voices of women and girls in SSA countries highlighting the challenges they face in maintaining a healthy body weight. Sociocultural, institutional and peer-related factors were powerful forces shaping body size preferences, food choices and participation in physical activity. Our study findings provide insights for the design of contextually appropriate obesity prevention interventions and lay the foundation for further research studies.

The influence of the social and cultural environment on maternal mortality in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2013 demographic and health survey.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing maternal mortality remains a priority for global health. One in five maternal deaths, globally, are from Nigeria. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the sociocultural correlates of maternal mortality in Nigeria. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of nationally representative data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The analysis was based on responses from the core women's questionnaire. Maternal mortality was categorized as 'yes' for any death while pregnant, during delivery or two months after delivery (as reported by the sibling), and 'no' for deaths of other or unknown causes. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was conducted to test for association between maternal mortality and predictor variables of sociocultural status (educational attainment, community women's education, region, type of residence, religion, and women's empowerment). RESULTS: Region, Religion, and the level of community women's education were independently associated with maternal mortality. Women in the North West were more than twice as likely to report maternal mortality (OR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.42-3.23) compared to those in the North Central region. Muslim women were 52% more likely to report maternal deaths (OR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.10-2.11) compared to Christian women. Respondents living in communities where a significant proportion of women have at least secondary schooling were 33% less likely to report that their sisters died of pregnancy-related causes (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.48-0.95). CONCLUSION: Efforts to reduce maternal mortality should implement tailored programs that address barriers to health-seeking behavior influenced by cultural beliefs and attitudes, and low educational attainment. Strategies to improve women's agency should be at the core of these programs; they are essential for reducing maternal mortality and achieving sustainable development goals towards gender equality. Future studies should develop empirically evaluated measures which assess, and further investigate the association between women's empowerment and maternal health status and outcomes.

Self-reported health and behavioral factors are associated with metabolic syndrome in Americans aged 40 and over.

To determine whether behavioral factors differ among metabolic conditions and self-reported health, and to determine whether self-reported health is a valid predictor of metabolic syndrome (MetS). A total of 2997 individuals (≥ 40 years old) were selected from four biennial U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (2007-2014). A set of weighted logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs)Individuals with light physical activity are more likely to have MetS and report poor health than those with vigorous physical activity with OR = 3.22 (95% CI: 2.23, 4.66) and 4.52 (95% CI: 2.78, 7.33), respectively. Individuals eating poor diet have greater odds of developing MetS and reporting poor health with OR = 1.32 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.66) and 3.13 (95% CI: 2.46, 3.98). The aforementioned relationships remained significant after adjustment for demographic and socio-economic status. A potential intervention strategy will be needed to encourage individuals to aggressively improve their lifestyle to reduce MetS and improve quality of life. Despite the significant association between self-reported health with MetS, a low sensitivity indicated that better screening tools for MetS, diabetes and cardiovascular disease are essential.

An association of health behaviors with depression and metabolic risks: Data from 2007 to 2014 U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

BACKGROUND: Both depression and metabolic syndrome (MetS) confer an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease. Accumulating evidence suggests healthy behaviors are crucial to maintain, improve and manage chronical disease and mental health; and unhealthy diet and sedentary behavior were found two major risk factors of MetS. The objective of this study was to investigate whether health behaviors (alcohol consumption, smoking, diet and recreational physical activity) are associated with depression and metabolic syndrome simultaneously. METHODS: This study included 1300 participants aged 20 years and over who had answered mental health-depression screener questions (PHQ-9) and finished examinations and laboratory tests related to five risk factors of MetS during the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2014. A set of series of weighted logistic regression models were used to investigate the aforementioned relationship. RESULTS: The prevalence of depression among U.S. adults is 15.08%. The two most often reported depression symptoms were "Trouble sleeping or sleeping too much" and "Feeling tired or having little energy", with rates of14.68% and 13.09%, respectively. Participants who engaged in only light physical activity were more likely to have been identified as experiencing depression and MetS than those who engaged in vigorous physical activity with odd ratios 3.18 (95% CI: 1.59, 6.37) and 3.50 (95%CI: 2.17, 5.63), respectively. Individuals in the study having poor diets were more likely to suffer from depression than those eating good diets (OR=2.17, 95%CI: 1.47, 3.22). CONCLUSION: Physical activity is strongly and inversely associated with depression and MetS. Diet is significantly associated with depression rather than MetS in this study.