RESUMEN
All viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, continue to evolve, which can lead to new variants. The objective of this study is to assess the agreement between real-world clinical data and an algorithm that utilizes laboratory markers and age to predict the progression of disease severity in COVID-19 patients during the pre-Omicron and Omicron variant periods. The study evaluated the performance of a deep learning (DL) algorithm in predicting disease severity scores for COVID-19 patients using data from the USA, Spain, and Turkey (Ankara City Hospital (ACH) data set). The algorithm was developed and validated using pre-Omicron era data and was tested on both pre-Omicron and Omicron-era data. The predictions were compared to the actual clinical outcomes using a multidisciplinary approach. The concordance index values for all datasets ranged from 0.71 to 0.81. In the ACH cohort, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.78 or higher was observed for severe patients in both the pre-Omicron and Omicron eras, which is consistent with the algorithm's performance in the development cohort.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to predict the probability of intensive care unit (ICU) care for inpatient COVID-19 cases using clinical and artificial intelligence segmentation-based volumetric and CT-radiomics parameters on admission. METHODS: Twenty-eight clinical/laboratory features, 21 volumetric parameters, and 74 radiomics parameters obtained by deep learning (DL)-based segmentations from CT examinations of 191 severe COVID-19 inpatients admitted between March 2020 and March 2021 were collected. Patients were divided into Group 1 (117 patients discharged from the inpatient service) and Group 2 (74 patients transferred to the ICU), and the differences between the groups were evaluated with the T-test and Mann-Whitney test. The sensitivities and specificities of significantly different parameters were evaluated by ROC analysis. Subsequently, 152 (79.5%) patients were assigned to the training/cross-validation set, and 39 (20.5%) patients were assigned to the test set. Clinical, radiological, and combined logit-fit models were generated by using the Bayesian information criterion from the training set and optimized via tenfold cross-validation. To simultaneously use all of the clinical, volumetric, and radiomics parameters, a random forest model was produced, and this model was trained by using a balanced training set created by adding synthetic data to the existing training/cross-validation set. The results of the models in predicting ICU patients were evaluated with the test set. RESULTS: No parameter individually created a reliable classifier. When the test set was evaluated with the final models, the AUC values were 0.736, 0.708, and 0.794, the specificity values were 79.17%, 79.17%, and 87.50%, the sensitivity values were 66.67%, 60%, and 73.33%, and the F1 values were 0.67, 0.62, and 0.76 for the clinical, radiological, and combined logit-fit models, respectively. The random forest model that was trained with the balanced training/cross-validation set was the most successful model, achieving an AUC of 0.837, specificity of 87.50%, sensitivity of 80%, and F1 value of 0.80 in the test set. CONCLUSION: By using a machine learning algorithm that was composed of clinical and DL-segmentation-based radiological parameters and that was trained with a balanced data set, COVID-19 patients who may require intensive care could be successfully predicted.
