Achieving equity: patient demographics and outcomes after surgical and non-surgical procedures in South Australia, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Although modern Australian healthcare systems provide patient-centred care, the ability to predict and prevent suboptimal post-procedural outcomes based on patient demographics at admission may improve health equity. This study aimed to identify patient demographic characteristics that might predict disparities in mortality, readmission, and discharge outcomes after either an operative or non-operative procedural hospital admission. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included all surgical and non-surgical procedural admissions at three of the four major metropolitan public hospitals in South Australia in 2022. Multivariable logistic regression, with backwards selection, evaluated association between patient demographic characteristics and outcomes up to 90 days post-procedurally. RESULTS: 40 882 admissions were included. Increased likelihood of all-cause, post-procedure mortality in-hospital, at 30 days, and 90 days, were significantly associated with increased age (P < 0.001), increased comorbidity burden (P < 0.001), an emergency admission (P < 0.001), and male sex (P = 0.046, P = 0.03, P < 0.001, respectively). Identification as ATSI (P < 0.001) and being born in Australia (P = 0.03, P = 0.001, respectively) were associated with an increased likelihood of 30-day hospital readmission and decreased likelihood of discharge directly home, as was increased comorbidity burden (P < 0.001) and emergency admission (P < 0.001). Being married (P < 0.001) and male sex (P = 0.003) were predictive of an increased likelihood of discharging directly home; in contrast to increased age (P < 0.001) which was predictive of decreased likelihood of this occurring. CONCLUSIONS: This study characterized several associations between patient demographic factors present on admission and outcomes after surgical and non-surgical procedures, that can be integrated within patient flow pathways through the Australian healthcare system to improve healthcare equity.

Surgery's Rosetta Stone: Natural language processing to predict discharge and readmission after general surgery.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to examine the accuracy with which multiple natural language processing artificial intelligence models could predict discharge and readmissions after general surgery. METHODS: Natural language processing models were derived and validated to predict discharge within the next 48 hours and 7 days and readmission within 30 days (based on daily ward round notes and discharge summaries, respectively) for general surgery inpatients at 2 South Australian hospitals. Natural language processing models included logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers. RESULTS: For discharge prediction analyses, 14,690 admissions were included. For readmission prediction analyses, 12,457 patients were included. For prediction of discharge within 48 hours, derivation and validation data set area under the receiver operator characteristic curves were, respectively: 0.86 and 0.86 for Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers, 0.82 and 0.81 for logistic regression, and 0.82 and 0.81 for artificial neural networks. For prediction of discharge within 7 days, derivation and validation data set area under the receiver operator characteristic curves were, respectively: 0.82 and 0.81 for Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers, 0.75 and 0.72 for logistic regression, and 0.68 and 0.67 for artificial neural networks. For readmission prediction within 30 days, derivation and validation data set area under the receiver operator characteristic curves were, respectively: 0.55 and 0.59 for Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers and 0.77 and 0.62 for logistic regression. CONCLUSION: Modern natural language processing models, particularly Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers, can effectively and accurately identify general surgery patients who will be discharged in the next 48 hours. However, these approaches are less capable of identifying general surgery patients who will be discharged within the next 7 days or who will experience readmission within 30 days of discharge.

Sociocultural and Demographic Factors Predict Readmissions for General Surgery Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Readmission is a poor outcome for both patients and healthcare systems. The association of certain sociocultural and demographic characteristics with likelihood of readmission is uncertain in general surgical patients. METHOD: A multi-centre retrospective cohort study of consecutive unique individuals who survived to discharge during general surgical admissions was conducted. Sociocultural and demographic variables were evaluated alongside clinical parameters (considered both as raw values and their proportion of change in the 1-2 days prior to admission) for their association with 7 and 30 days readmission using logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 12,701 individuals included, with 304 (2.4%) individuals readmitted within 7 days, and 921 (7.3%) readmitted within 30 days. When incorporating absolute values of clinical parameters in the model, age was the only variable significantly associated with 7-day readmission, and primary language and presence of religion were the only variables significantly associated with 30-day readmission. When incorporating change in clinical parameters between the 1-2 days prior to discharge, primary language and religion were predictive of 30-day readmission. When controlling for changes in clinical parameters, only higher comorbidity burden (represented by higher Charlson comorbidity index score) was associated with increased likelihood of 30-day readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Sociocultural and demographic patient factors such as primary language, presence of religion, age, and comorbidity burden predict the likelihood of 7 and 30-day hospital readmission after general surgery. These findings support early implementation a postoperative care model that integrates all biopsychosocial domains across multiple disciplines of healthcare.

Vital signs and medical emergency response (MER) activation predict in-hospital mortality in general surgery patients: a study of 15 969 admissions.

BACKGROUND: The applicability of the vital signs prompting medical emergency response (MER) activation has not previously been examined specifically in a large general surgical cohort. This study aimed to characterize the distribution, and predictive performance, of four vital signs selected based on Australian guidelines (oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure and heart rate); with those of the MER activation criteria. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted including patients admitted under general surgical services of two hospitals in South Australia over 2 years. Likelihood ratios for patients meeting MER activation criteria, or a vital sign in the most extreme 1% for general surgery inpatients (<0.5th percentile or > 99.5th percentile), were calculated to predict in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: 15 969 inpatient admissions were included comprising 2 254 617 total vital sign observations. The 0.5th and 99.5th centile for heart rate was 48 and 133, systolic blood pressure 85 and 184, respiratory rate 10 and 31, and oxygen saturations 89% and 100%, respectively. MER activation criteria with the highest positive likelihood ratio for in-hospital mortality were heart rate ≤ 39 (37.65, 95% CI 27.71-49.51), respiratory rate ≥ 31 (15.79, 95% CI 12.82-19.07), and respiratory rate ≤ 7 (10.53, 95% CI 6.79-14.84). These MER activation criteria likelihood ratios were similar to those derived when applying a threshold of the most extreme 1% of vital signs. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that vital signs within Australian guidelines, and escalation to MER activation, appropriately predict in-hospital mortality in a large cohort of patients admitted to general surgical services in South Australia.

Depression after stoma surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Depression is the leading cause of global disability and can develop following the change in body image and functional capacity associated with stoma surgery. However, reported prevalence across the literature is unknown. Accordingly, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis aiming to characterise depressive symptoms after stoma surgery and potential predictive factors. METHODS: PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane Library were searched from respective database inception to 6 March 2023 for studies reporting rates of depressive symptoms after stoma surgery. Risk of bias was assessed using the Downs and Black checklist for non-randomised studies of interventions (NRSIs), and Cochrane RoB2 tool for randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Meta-analysis incorporated meta-regressions and a random-effects model. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42021262345. RESULTS: From 5,742 records, 68 studies were included. According to Downs and Black checklist, the 65 NRSIs were of low to moderate methodological quality. According to Cochrane RoB2, the three RCTs ranged from low risk of bias to some concerns of bias. Thirty-eight studies reported rates of depressive symptoms after stoma surgery as a proportion of the respective study populations, and from these, the median rate across all timepoints was 42.9% 42.9% (IQR: 24.2-58.9%). Pooled scores for respective validated depression measures (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score (HADS), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9)) across studies reporting those scores were below clinical thresholds for major depressive disorder according to severity criteria of the respective scores. In the three studies that used the HADS to compare non-stoma versus stoma surgical populations, depressive symptoms were 58% less frequent in non-stoma populations. Region (Asia-Pacific; Europe; Middle East/Africa; North America) was significantly associated with postoperative depressive symptoms (p = 0.002), whereas age (p = 0.592) and sex (p = 0.069) were not. CONCLUSIONS: Depressive symptoms occur in almost half of stoma surgery patients, which is higher than the general population, and many inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer populations outlined in the literature. However, validated measures suggest this is mostly at a level of clinical severity below major depressive disorder. Stoma patient outcomes and postoperative psychosocial adjustment may be enhanced by increased psychological evaluation and care in the perioperative period.

Survival outcomes for patients with colorectal cancer with synchronous liver only metastasis.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastasis is managed with a multimodal approach, however, optimal sequencing of modalities remains unclear. METHODS: A retrospective review of all consecutive rectal or colon cancer cases with synchronous liver-only metastasis was conducted from the South Australian Colorectal Cancer Registry from 2006 to 2021. This study aimed to investigate how order and type of treatment modality affects overall survival. RESULTS: Data of over 5000 cases were analysed (n = 5244), 1420 cases had liver-only metastasis. There were a greater number of colon than rectal primaries (N = 1056 versus 364). Colonic resection was the preferred initial treatment for the colon cohort (60%). In the rectal cohort, 30% had upfront resection followed by 27% that had chemo-radiotherapy as 1st line therapy. For the colon cohort, there was an improved 5-year survival with surgical resection as initial treatment compared to chemotherapy (25% versus 9%, P < 0.001). In the rectal cohort, chemo-radiotherapy as the initial treatment was associated with an improved 5-year survival compared to surgery or chemotherapy (40% versus 26% versus 19%, P = 0.0015). Patients who were able to have liver resection had improved survival, with 50% surviving over 5 years compared to 12 months in the non-resected group (P < 0.001). Primary rectal KRAS wildtype patients who underwent liver resection and received Cetuximab had significantly worse outcomes compared to KRAS wildtype patients who did not (P = 0.0007). CONCLUSIONS: Where surgery is possible, resection of liver metastasis and primary tumour improved overall survival. Further research is required on the use of targeted treatments in patients undergoing liver resection.

Guidelines for Perioperative Care for Liver Surgery: Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) Society Recommendations 2022.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) has been widely applied in liver surgery since the publication of the first ERAS guidelines in 2016. The aim of the present article was to update the ERAS guidelines in liver surgery using a modified Delphi method based on a systematic review of the literature. METHODS: A systematic literature review was performed using MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. A modified Delphi method including 15 international experts was used. Consensus was judged to be reached when >80% of the experts agreed on the recommended items. Recommendations were based on the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations system. RESULTS: A total of 7541 manuscripts were screened, and 240 articles were finally included. Twenty-five recommendation items were elaborated. All of them obtained consensus (>80% agreement) after 3 Delphi rounds. Nine items (36%) had a high level of evidence and 16 (64%) a strong recommendation grade. Compared to the first ERAS guidelines published, 3 novel items were introduced: prehabilitation in high-risk patients, preoperative biliary drainage in cholestatic liver, and preoperative smoking and alcohol cessation at least 4 weeks before hepatectomy. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines based on the best available evidence allow standardization of the perioperative management of patients undergoing liver surgery. Specific studies on hepatectomy in cirrhotic patients following an ERAS program are still needed.

In-hospital survival after pancreatoduodenectomy is greater in high-volume hospitals versus lower-volume hospitals: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Variation in cut-off values for what is considered a high volume (HV) hospital has made assessments of volume-outcome relationships for pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) challenging. Accordingly, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing in-hospital mortality after PD in hospitals above and below HV thresholds of various cut-off values. METHOD: PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Library were searched to 4 January 2021 for studies comparing in-hospital mortality after PD in hospitals above and below defined HV thresholds. After data extraction, risk of bias was assessed using the Downs and Black checklist. A random-effects model was used for meta-analysis, including meta-regressions. Registration: PROSPERO, CRD42021224432. RESULTS: From 1855 records, 17 observational studies of moderate quality were included. Median HV cut-off was 25 PDs/year (IQR: 20-32). Overall relative risk of in-hospital mortality was 0.37 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.45), that is, 63% less in HV hospitals. All subgroup analyses found an in-hospital survival benefit in performing PDs at HV hospitals. Meta-regressions from included studies found no statistically significant associations between relative risk of in-hospital mortality and region (USA vs. non-USA; p = 0.396); or 25th percentile (p = 0.231), median (p = 0.822) or 75th percentile (p = 0.469) HV cut-off values. Significant inverse relationships were found between PD hospital volume and other outcomes. CONCLUSION: In-hospital survival was significantly greater for patients undergoing PDs at HV hospitals, regardless of HV cut-off value or region. Future research is required to investigate regions where low-volume centres have specialized PD infrastructure and the potential impact on mortality.

Postpancreatectomy Acute Pancreatitis (PPAP): Definition and Grading From the International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS).

OBJECTIVE: The ISGPS aimed to develop a universally accepted definition for PPAP for standardized reporting and outcome comparison. BACKGROUND: PPAP is an increasingly recognized complication after partial pancreatic resections, but its incidence and clinical impact, and even its existence are variable because an internationally accepted consensus definition and grading system are lacking. METHODS: The ISGPS developed a consensus definition and grading of PPAP with its members after an evidence review and after a series of discussions and multiple revisions from April 2020 to May 2021. RESULTS: We defined PPAP as an acute inflammatory condition of the pancreatic remnant beginning within the first 3 postoperative days after a partial pancreatic resection. The diagnosis requires (1) a sustained postoperative serum hyperamylasemia (POH) greater than the institutional upper limit of normal for at least the first 48 hours postoperatively, (2) associated with clinically relevant features, and (3) radiologic alterations consistent with PPAP. Three different PPAP grades were defined based on the clinical impact: (1) grade postoperative hyperamylasemia, biochemical changes only; (2) grade B, mild or moderate complications; and (3) grade C, severe life-threatening complications. DISCUSSIONS: The present definition and grading scale of PPAP, based on biochemical, radiologic, and clinical criteria, are instrumental for a better understanding of PPAP and the spectrum of postoperative complications related to this emerging entity. The current terminology will serve as a reference point for standard assessment and lend itself to developing specific treatments and prevention strategies.

How to sustainably build capacity in quality improvement within a healthcare organisation: a deep-dive, focused qualitative analysis.

BACKGROUND: A key characteristic of healthcare systems that deliver high quality and cost performance in a sustainable way is a systematic approach to capacity and capability building for quality improvement. The aim of this research was to explore the factors that lead to successful implementation of a program of quality improvement projects and a capacity and capability building program that facilitates or support these. METHODS: Between July 2018 and February 2020, the Southern Adelaide Local Health Network (SALHN), a network of health services in Adelaide, South Australia, conducted three capability-oriented capacity building programs that incorporated 82 longstanding individual quality improvement projects. Qualitative analysis of data collected from interviews of 19 project participants and four SALHN Improvement Faculty members and ethnographic observations of seven project team meetings were conducted. RESULTS: We found four interacting components that lead to successful implementation of quality improvement projects and the overall program that facilitates or support these: an agreed and robust quality improvement methodology, a skilled faculty to assist improvement teams, active involvement of leadership and management, and a deep understanding that teams matter. A strong safety culture is not necessarily a pre-requisite for quality improvement gains to be made; indeed, undertaking quality improvement activities can contribute to an improved safety culture. For most project participants in the program, the time commitment for projects was significant and, at times, maintaining momentum was a challenge. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare systems that wish to deliver high quality and cost performance in a sustainable way should consider embedding the four identified components into their quality improvement capacity and capability building strategy.

Proposed delay for safe surgery after COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Long-term effects after COVID-19 may affect surgical safety. This study aimed to evaluate the literature and produce evidence-based guidance regarding the period of delay necessary for adequate recovery of patients following COVID-19 infection before undergoing surgery. METHODS: A rapid review was combined with advice from a working group of 10 clinical experts across Australia and New Zealand. MEDLINE, medRxiv and grey literature were searched to 4 October 2020. The level of evidence was stratified according to the National Health and Medical Research Council evidence hierarchy. RESULTS: A total of 1020 records were identified, from which 20 studies (12 peer-reviewed) were included. None were randomized trials. The studies comprised one case-control study (level III-2 evidence), one prospective cohort study (level III-2) and 18 case-series studies (level IV). Follow-up periods containing observable clinical characteristics ranged from 3 to 16 weeks. New or excessive fatigue and breathlessness were the most frequently reported symptoms. SARS-CoV-2 may impact the immune system for multiple months after laboratory confirmation of infection. For patients with past COVID-19 undergoing elective curative surgery for cancer, risks of pulmonary complications and mortality may be lowest at 4 weeks or later after a positive swab. CONCLUSION: After laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection, minor surgery should be delayed for at least 4 weeks and major surgery for 8-12 weeks, if patient outcome is not compromised. Comprehensive preoperative and ongoing assessment must be carried out to ensure optimal clinical decision-making.

Metastasectomy and BRAF mutation; an analysis of survival outcome in metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Resection of oligometastases improves survival in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). It is unclear whether the benefit is consistent for BRAF V600E mutant (MT) and wild type (WT) mCRC. This retrospective analysis explores the influence of BRAF MT on survival after metastasectomy. METHODS: Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) for BRAF MT and WT mCRC were evaluated. Survival was also analyzed in the cohort of BRAF MT with or without metastasectomy. RESULTS: Five hundred and thirteen patients who had undergone metastasectomy were identified, 6% were BRAF-MT. Median age 63. Median OS in BRAF MT vs WT: 25.7 vs 48.5 months (hazard ratio [HR] 1.95; 1.18-3.22). However, difference was not significant in a multivariate model. Right primary tumor, intact primary, >1 metastatic site, non-R0 resection, peritoneal metastasis, and synchronous metastasis were independent predictors of worse OS. Among 364 patients with RFS data there was no difference between BRAF MT and WT (16 vs 19 months, p=0.09). In another cohort of 158 BRAF-MT patients, OS was significantly better after metastasectomy compared to "no metastasectomy" (HR 0.34; 0.18-0.65, P= 0.001). Proficient mismatch repair status showed a trend toward worse survival after metastasectomy in BRAF MT (HR 1.71, P = 0.08). CONCLUSION: OS did not differ after metastasectomy between BRAF MT and WT in a multivariate model. Median OS was >2 years in this study after metastasectomy among BRAFV600E MT patients suggesting a survival benefit of metastasectomy in this group where systemic therapeutic options are limited. Metastasectomy may be considered in carefully selected BRAF-MT patients.

Screening and testing for COVID-19 before surgery.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative screening for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) aims to preserve surgical safety for both patients and surgical teams. This rapid review provides an evaluation of current evidence with input from clinical experts to produce guidance for screening for active COVID-19 in a low prevalence setting. METHODS: An initial search of PubMed (until 6 May 2020) was combined with targeted searches of both PubMed and Google Scholar until 1 July 2020. Findings were streamlined for clinical relevance through the advice of an expert working group that included seven senior surgeons and a senior medical virologist. RESULTS: Patient history should be examined for potential exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Hyposmia and hypogeusia may present as early symptoms of COVID-19, and can potentially discriminate from other influenza-like illnesses. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction is the gold standard diagnostic test to confirm SARS-CoV-2 infection, and although sensitivity can be improved with repeated testing, the decision to retest should incorporate clinical history and the local supply of diagnostic resources. At present, routine serological testing has little utility for diagnosing acute infection. To appropriately conduct preoperative testing, the temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 must be considered. Relative to other thoracic imaging modalities, computed tomography has the greatest utility for characterizing pulmonary involvement in COVID-19 patients who have been diagnosed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. CONCLUSION: Through a rapid review of the literature and advice from a clinical expert working group, evidence-based recommendations have been produced for the preoperative screening of surgical patients with suspected COVID-19.