A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data.

The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory.

Randomized clinical trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of valganciclovir in a subset of patients with chronic fatigue syndrome.

There is no known treatment for chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). Little is known about its pathogenesis. Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) have been proposed as infectious triggers. Thirty CFS patients with elevated IgG antibody titers against HHV-6 and EBV were randomized 2:1 to receive valganciclovir (VGCV) or placebo for 6 months in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Clinical endpoints aimed at measuring physical and mental fatigue included the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory (MFI-20) and Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) scores, self-reported cognitive function, and physician-determined responder status. Biological endpoints included monocyte and neutrophil counts and cytokine levels. VGCV patients experienced a greater improvement by MFI-20 at 9 months from baseline compared to placebo patients but this difference was not statistically significant. However, statistically significant differences in trajectories between groups were observed in MFI-20 mental fatigue subscore (P = 0.039), FSS score (P = 0.006), and cognitive function (P = 0.025). VGCV patients experienced these improvements within the first 3 months and maintained that benefit over the remaining 9 months. Patients in the VGCV arm were 7.4 times more likely to be classified as responders (P = 0.029). In the VGCV arm, monocyte counts decreased (P < 0.001), neutrophil counts increased (P = 0.037) and cytokines were more likely to evolve towards a Th1-profile (P < 0.001). Viral IgG antibody titers did not differ between arms. VGCV may have clinical benefit in a subset of CFS patients independent of placebo effect, possibly mediated by immunomodulation and/or antiviral effect. Further investigation with longer treatment duration and a larger sample size is warranted.

The diagnostic yield of CT-guided percutaneous lung biopsy in solid organ transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Despite the widespread use of computed tomography(CT)-guided percutaneous lung biopsy (PLB) in immunocompetent patients, the diagnostic yield and safety in solid organ transplant (SOT)recipients is unknown. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the test performance of CT-PLB in SOT recipients. METHODS: We performed a 10-yr single-center, retrospective analysis among heart, lung, kidney, and liver transplant recipients. We included all adult patients who underwent a PLB of a parenchymal lung nodule following their transplantation. RESULTS: Within the study period, 1754 SOTs were performed, of which 45 biopsies met study criteria. Overall, the incidence of PLB in SOT was 3%.PLB established a diagnosis in 24 of 45 cases. The yield of PLB was better for combined biopsy technique (fine-needle aspiration biopsy [FNAB]) and core biopsy than for FNAB alone (odds ratio [OR]: 4.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2, 15.6), and for lesions that were malignant (OR: 10.0, 95%CI: 1.8, 75.4) or caused by an invasive fungal infection (OR: 5.0, 95% CI:1.1, 27.9). Complications occurred in 13% (6/45) of patients. CONCLUSION: CT-guided PLB is a safe modality that provides a moderate yield for diagnosing pulmonary nodules of malignant or fungal etiology in SOT recipients.

Trends in acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in dialysis patients.

Impaired kidney function is a risk factor for upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, an event associated with poor outcomes. The burden of upper GI bleeding and its effect on patients with ESRD are not well described. Using data from the US Renal Data System, we quantified the rates of occurrence of and associated 30-day mortality from acute, nonvariceal upper GI bleeding in patients undergoing dialysis; we used medical claims and previously validated algorithms where available. Overall, 948,345 patients contributed 2,296,323 patient-years for study. The occurrence rates for upper GI bleeding were 57 and 328 episodes per 1000 person-years according to stringent and lenient definitions of acute, nonvariceal upper GI bleeding, respectively. Unadjusted occurrence rates remained flat (stringent) or increased (lenient) from 1997 to 2008; after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and comorbid conditions, however, we found a significant decline for both definitions (linear approximation, 2.7% and 1.5% per year, respectively; P<0.001). In more recent years, patients had higher hematocrit levels before upper GI bleeding episodes and were more likely to receive blood transfusions during an episode. Overall 30-day mortality was 11.8%, which declined significantly over time (relative declines of 2.3% or 2.8% per year for the stringent and lenient definitions, respectively). In summary, despite declining trends worldwide, crude rates of acute, nonvariceal upper GI bleeding among patients undergoing dialysis have not decreased in the past 10 years. Although 30-day mortality related to upper GI bleeding declined, perhaps reflecting improvements in medical care, the burden on the ESRD population remains substantial.

Validity of surrogate measures for functional nephron mass.

BACKGROUND: Transplanted nephron mass is an important determinant of long-term allograft survival, but accurate assessment before organ retrieval is challenging. Newer radiologic imaging techniques allow for better determination of total kidney and cortical volumes. METHODS: Using volume measurements reconstructed from magnetic resonance or computed tomography imaging from living donor candidates, we characterized total kidney (n=312) and cortical volumes (n=236) according to sex, age, weight, height, body mass index (BMI), and body surface area (BSA). RESULTS: The mean cortical volume was 204 mL (range 105-355 mL) with no significant differences between left and right cortical volumes. The degree to which existing anthropomorphic surrogates predict nephron mass was quantified, and a diligent attempt was made to derive a better surrogate model for nephron mass. Cortical volumes were strongly associated with sex and BSA, but not with weight, height, or BMI. Four prediction models for cortical volume constructed using combinations of age, sex, race, weight, and height were compared with models including either BSA or BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Among existing surrogate measures, BSA was superior to BMI in predicting renal cortical volume. We were able to construct a statistically superior proxy for cortical volume, but whether relevant improvements in predictive accuracy could be gained needs further evaluation in a larger population.

Intradialytic hypotension and vascular access thrombosis.

Identifying potential modifiable risk factors to reduce the incidence of vascular access thrombosis in hemodialysis could reduce considerable morbidity and health care costs. We analyzed data from a subset of 1426 HEMO study subjects to determine whether more frequent intradialytic hypotension and/or lower predialysis systolic BP were associated with higher rates of vascular access thrombosis. Our primary outcome measure was episodes of vascular access thrombosis occurring within a given 6-month period during HEMO study follow-up. There were 2005 total episodes of vascular access thrombosis during a median 3.1 years of follow-up. The relative rate of thrombosis of native arteriovenous fistulas for the highest quartile of intradialytic hypotension was approximately twice that of the lowest quartile, independent of predialysis systolic BP and other covariates. There was no significant association of intradialytic hypotension with prosthetic arteriovenous graft thrombosis after multivariable adjustment. Higher predialysis systolic BP was associated with a lower rate of fistula and graft thrombosis, independent of intradialytic hypotension and other covariates. In conclusion, more frequent episodes of intradialytic hypotension and lower predialysis systolic BP associate with increased rates of vascular access thrombosis. These results underscore the importance of including vascular access patency in future studies of BP management in hemodialysis.

Epidemiologic trends in penile anomalies and hypospadias in the state of California, 1985-2006.

PURPOSE: Using statewide data, we evaluated whether the changing incidence of penile anomalies and hypospadias is reflected in the diverse California population of newborn males over the past 20 years. METHODS: Discharge data from all California hospitals, prepared by the OSHPD (Sacramento, CA) was reviewed for the years 1985-2006 for male infant births with an ICD-9 code (752.6) for hypospadias, epispadias or other penile anomalies. Trends were examined by Generalized Estimation Equations for Poisson regression. RESULTS: From 1985 to 2006, the birth incidence of newborn penile anomalies increased in California from 47 to 57 cases per 10,000 newborn discharges, yet the trend for hypospadias alone appears stable from 1997. The rates for penile anomalies in newborns increased 1.4% annually (p < 0.001). All racial/ethnic groups analyzed showed this increase (p < 0.001 for each). During the study period there was a 2% increase per year in plural births (p < 0.001). Interestingly, the rate of change in penile anomaly incidence was greater in males of plural births compared to their singleton cohorts (2% vs 1% annually) (p < 0.001). The birth incidence of cleft palate, another congenital anomaly known to be stable over time, remained unchanged over this period. CONCLUSIONS: From 1985 to 2006 in California the incidence of penile anomalies increased in a statistically significant manner, but the incidence of hypospadias appears stable for the last decade. Our data support the notion that different racial/ethnic groups have distinct incidences of penile anomaly formation and that an association with plural births appears to be present.

Updated comorbidity assessments and outcomes in prevalent hemodialysis patients.

When evaluating clinical characteristics and outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, the prevalence and severity of comorbidity may change over time. Knowing whether updated assessments of comorbidity enhance predictive power will assist the design of future studies. We conducted a secondary data analysis of 1846 prevalent hemodialysis patients from 15 US clinical centers enrolled in the HEMO study. Our primary explanatory variable was the Index of Coexistent Diseases score, which aggregates comorbidities, as a time-constant and time-varying covariate. Our outcomes of interest were all-cause mortality, time to first hospitalization, and total hospitalizations. We used Cox proportional hazards regression. Accounting for an updated comorbidity assessment over time yielded a more robust association with mortality than accounting for baseline comorbidity alone. The variation explained by time-varying comorbidity assessments on time to death was greater than age, baseline serum albumin, diabetes, or any other covariates. There was a less pronounced advantage of updated comorbidity assessments on determining time to hospitalization. Updated assessments of comorbidity significantly strengthen the ability to predict death in patients on hemodialysis. Future studies in dialysis should invest the necessary resources to include repeated assessments of comorbidity.