Predictive improvement of adding coronary calcium score and a genetic risk score to a traditional risk model for cardiovascular event prediction.

AIMS: Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and polygenic risk score have been used as novel markers to predict cardiovascular (CV) events of asymptomatic individuals compared with traditional scores. No previous studies have directly compared the additive capacity of these two markers relative to conventional scores. The aim of the study was to evaluate the change in CV risk prediction ability when CACS, genetic risk score (GRS), or both are added to Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2). METHODS AND RESULTS: In a prospective, observational population-based study, 1002 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53.1 ± 6.8 years, 73.8% male), free of clinical coronary disease and diabetes, were selected from GENEMACOR-study controls. SCORE2, CACS, and GRS were estimated to evaluate CV events' predictive and discriminative ability through Harrell's C-statistics. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination index were used to reclassify the population. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) analysis assessed the variables independently associated with CV events. C-statistic demonstrated that the discriminative value for CV event occurrence was 0.608 for SCORE2, increasing to 0.749 (P = 0.001) when CACS was added, and improved to 0.802 (P = 0.0008) with GRS, showing a better discriminative capacity for CV events. Continuous NRI reclassified >70% of the population. Cox proportional analysis showed that the highest categories of SCORE2, CACS, and GRS remained in the equation with an HR of 2.9 (P = 0.003), 5.0 (P < 0.0001), and 3.2 (P = 0.003), respectively, when compared with the lowest categories. CONCLUSION: In our population, CACS added to SCORE2 had better ability than GRS in CV event risk prediction, discrimination, and reclassification. However, adding the three scores can become clinically relevant, especially in intermediate-risk persons.

Our study highlights the impact of including coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and genetic risk score (GRS) alongside Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) for enhancing cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment in primary prevention. In our population, adding CACS to SCORE2 exhibited a superior discriminative capacity for CV events compared with GRS alone in terms of risk prediction, discrimination, and reclassification. Our results emphasize the potential clinical relevance of using all three scores to identify high-risk individuals who would benefit from earlier and more stringent cardiovascular risk management strategies to prevent future cardiovascular events.

Transcription factor 21 gene and prognosis in a coronary population.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Transcription factor 21 (TCF21) is a member of the basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) transcription factor family, and is critical for embryogenesis of the heart. It regulates differentiation of epicardium-derived cells into smooth muscle cell (SMC) and fibroblast lineages. The biological role of TCF21 in the progression of atherosclerosis is the subject of debate. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the TCF21 rs12190287 gene variant on the prognosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) in a Portuguese population from Madeira island. METHODS: We analyzed major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in 1713 CAD patients, mean age 53.3±7.8, 78.7% male, for 5.0±4.3 years. Genotype and allele distribution between groups with and without MACE was determined. The dominant genetic model (heterozygous GC plus homozygous CC) was used and compared with the wild GG to assess survival probability. Cox regression with risk factors and genetic models assessed variables associated with MACE. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate survival. RESULTS: The wild homozygous GG, heterozygous GC and risk CC genotypes were found in 9.5%, 43.2% and 47.3% of the population, respectively. The dominant genetic model remained in the equation as an independent risk factor for MACE (HR 1.41; p=0.033), together with multivessel disease, chronic kidney disease, low physical activity and type 2 diabetes. The C allele in the dominant genetic model showed worse survival (22.5% vs. 44.3%) at 15 years of follow-up. CONCLUSION: The TCF21 rs12190287 variant is a risk factor for CAD events. This gene may influence fundamental SMC processes in response to vascular stress, accelerating atherosclerosis progression, and may represent a target for future therapies.

Impact of genetic information on coronary disease risk in Madeira: The GENEMACOR study.

INTRODUCTION: Coronary artery disease (CAD), characterized by an atherogenic process in the coronary arteries, is one of the leading causes of death in Madeira. The GENEMACOR (GENEs in MAdeira and CORonary Disease) study sought to investigate the main risk factors - environmental and genetic - and estimate whether a genetic risk score (GRS) improves CAD prediction, discrimination and reclassification. METHODS: Traditional risk factors and 33 CAD genetic variants were considered in a case-control study with 3139 individuals (1723 patients and 1416 controls). The multivariate analysis assessed the likelihood of CAD. A multiplicative GRS (mGRS) was created, and two models (with and without mGRS) were prepared. Two areas under receiver operating characteristic curve (area under curve (AUC)) were analyzed and compared to discriminate CAD likelihood. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination index (IDI) were used to reclassify the population. RESULTS: All traditional risk factors were strong and independent predictors of CAD, with smoking being the most significant (OR 3.25; p<0.0001). LPA rs3798220 showed a higher CAD likelihood (odds ratio 1.45; p<0.0001). Individuals in the fourth mGRS quartile had an increased CAD probability of 136% (p<0.0001). A traditional risk factor-based model estimated an AUC of 0.73, rising to 0.75 after mGRS inclusion (p<0.0001), revealing a better fit. Continuous NRI better reclassified 28.1% of the population, and categorical NRI mainly improved the reclassification of the intermediate risk group. CONCLUSIONS: CAD likelihood was influenced by traditional risk factors and genetic variants. Incorporating GRS into the traditional model improved CAD predictive capacity, discrimination and reclassification. These approaches may provide helpful diagnostic and therapeutic advances, especially in the intermediate risk group.

Relationship between ADD1 Gly460Trp gene polymorphism and essential hypertension in Madeira Island.

Essential hypertension (EH) is a complex disease in which physiological, environmental, and genetic factors are involved in its genesis. The genetic variant of the alpha-adducin gene (ADD1) has been described as a risk factor for EH, but with controversial results.The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of ADD1 (Gly460Trp) gene polymorphism with the EH risk in a population from Madeira Island.A case-control study with 1614 individuals of Caucasian origin was performed, including 817 individuals with EH and 797 controls. Cases and controls were matched for sex and age, by frequency-matching method. All participants collected blood for biochemical and genotypic analysis for the Gly460Trp polymorphism. We further investigated which variables were independently associated to EH, and, consequently, analyzed their interactions.In our study, we found a significant association between the ADD1 gene polymorphism and EH (odds ratio 2.484, P = .01). This association remained statistically significant after the multivariate analysis (odds ratio 2.548, P = .02).The ADD1 Gly460Trp gene polymorphism is significantly and independently associated with EH risk in our population. The knowledge of genetic polymorphisms associated with EH is of paramount importance because it leads to a better understanding of the etiology and pathophysiology of this pathology.

Synergistic Association of Genetic Variants with Environmental Risk Factors in Susceptibility to Essential Hypertension.

AIMS: Essential hypertension (EH) is a disease in which both environment and genes have an important role. This study was designed to identify the interaction model between genetic variants and environmental risk factors that most highly potentiates EH development. METHODS: We performed a case-control study with 1641 participants (mean age 50.6 ± 8.1 years), specifically 848 patients with EH and 793 controls, adjusted for gender and age. Traditional risk factors, biochemical and genetic parameters, including the genotypic discrimination of 14 genetic variants previously associated with EH, were investigated. Multifactorial dimensionality reduction (MDR) software was used to analyze gene-environment interactions. Validation was performed using logistic regression analysis with environmental risk factors, significant genetic variants, and the best MDR model. RESULTS: The best model indicates that the interactions among the ADD1 rs4961 640T allele, diabetes, and obesity (body mass index ≥30) increase approximately four-fold the risk of EH (odds ratio = 3.725; 95% confidence interval: 2.945-4.711; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: This work showed that the interaction between the ADD1 rs4961 variant, obesity, and the presence of diabetes increased the susceptibility to EH four-fold. In these circumstances, lifestyle adjustment and diabetes control should be intensified in patients who carry the ADD1 variant.

Genetic risk score and cardiovascular mortality in a southern european population with coronary artery disease.

Several genetic risk scores (GRS) have been associated with cardiovascular disease; their role, however, in survival from proven coronary artery disease (CAD) have yielded conflicting results. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate long-term cardiovascular mortality according to the genetic risk score in a Southern European population with CAD. METHODS: A cohort of 1464 CAD patients with angiographic proven CAD were followed up prospectively for up to 58.3 (interquartile range: 25.8-88.1) months. Genotyping of 32 single-nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with CAD was performed using oligonucleotides probes marked with fluorescence for each allele. GRS was constructed according to the additive model assuming codominance and categorised using the median (=26). Cox Regression analysis was performed to determine independent multivariate predictors of cardiovascular mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves compared high vs low GRS using log-rank test. C-index was done for our population, as a measure of discrimination in survival analysis model. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 58.3 months, 156 patients (10.7%) died, 107 (7.3%) of CV causes. High GRS (≥26) was associated with reduced cardiovascular survival. Survival analysis with Cox regression model adjusted for 8 variables showed that high GRS, dyslipidemia, diabetes and 3-vessel disease were independent risk factors for cardiovascular mortality (HR=1.53, P=.037; HR=3.64, P=.012; HR=1.75, P=.004; HR=2.97, P<.0001, respectively). At the end of follow-up, the estimated survival probability was 70.8% for high GRS and 80.8% for low GRS (Log-rank test 5.6; P=.018). C-Index of 0.71 was found when GRS was added to a multivariate survival model of diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, hypertension and 3 vessel disease, stable angina and dual antiplatelet therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Besides the classical risk factors management, this work highlights the relevance of the genetic profile in survival from CAD. It is expected that new therapies will be dirsected to gene targets with proven value in cardiovascular survival.

Red blood cell distribution width is a survival predictor beyond anemia and Nt-ProBNP in stable optimally medicated heart failure with reduced ejection fraction outpatients.

BACKGROUND: RDW is an automatic value obtained with the blood count, and represents the erythrocytes dimension variation. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate in optimally medicated outpatients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) the RDW prognostic value regarding survival in a multivariable model including anemia and Nt-ProBNP. METHODS: 233 consecutive outpatients, LVEF <40%, clinically stable were followed-up for 3-years in an HF Unit. End-point was all-cause death. The RDW categorized according to the tertiles (T1 = <13.9; T2 14-15.2; T3> = 15.3). Anemia classified according to the WHO criteria. Cox survival model adjusted for clinical profile, optimal therapeutic, renal function, Nt-ProBNP, etiology, atrial fibrillation, and anemia. RESULTS: (1) The 3-years death rate was 33.5%, and increased with the RDW tertiles (17.3%; 25%; 61.1%; p < 0.001). (2) The ROC curve for death associated with RDW (AUC 0.73; p < 0.001); (3) The adjusted death risk increased with the tertiles (Hazard-ratio '[HR] = 1.61; IC 95% 1.09-2.39; p = 0.017). RDW> = 15.3 had greater adjusted death risk than T1 (HR = 2.18; 95% CI 0.99-4.8; p = 0.05) and T1+T2 (HR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.13-2.09; p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: RDW determined in optimally medicated outpatients with HFrEF, during dry-state, is a strong, cheap, and independent predictor of long-term survival.

Left atrial function index predicts long-term survival in stable outpatients with systolic heart failure.

AIMS: Left atrial (LA) function index (LAFI) is a rhythm-independent index that combines LA emptying fraction (LAEF), adjusted LA volume (LAVi), and stroke volume. We evaluated LAFI as a predictor of long-term survival in outpatients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: For 3 years, we followed up 203 outpatients with a left ventricular ejection fraction <40%, who were clinically stable and on optimal therapy. The endpoint was all-cause death. LAFI was calculated as LAFI = ([LAEF × left ventricular outflow tract-velocity time integral]/[LAVi]), and was categorized into quartiles (9.26/16.56/31.92) and median (16.57). Incremental Cox regression models adjusted for significant confounders were used for survival analyses. The 3-year death rate was 30%. Higher quartiles had lower death rates (43.1%/45.1%/25.5%/6%, P < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curve for death was associated with LAFI (area under curve = 0.695, 95% CI 0.62-0.77, P < 0.001). In the direct comparison with LAVi and LAEF, LAFI (HRcox 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97, P < 0.001) was the only predictor of survival. LAFI (HRcox 0.95, 95% CI 0.88-1.01, P = 0.099), LAFI quartiles (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.125-0.672, P=0.004), and LAFI ≥16.57 (HRcox 0.62, 95% CI 0.38-1.02, P=0.058) were adjusted predictors of survival. Subgroup analysis by heart rhythm (sinus vs. atrial fibrillation) showed that LAFI per unit increase and LAFI quartiles were independent predictors of death in both subgroups. CONCLUSION: LAFI determination in HFrEF stable outpatients is a predictor of long-term survival and provides increased prognostic value over a wide range of confounder risk factors.

Serial measurements of the Nt-ProBNP during the dry state in patients with systolic heart failure are predictors of the long-term prognosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term predictive value of serial Nt-ProBNP during dry-state in patients with systolic heart failure (SHF). METHODS: Nt-ProBNP was measured quarterly during a 6-month dry-state period in 40 SHF outpatients. EVENTS: all-cause mortality or hospitalization. FOLLOW-UP: 5 years. RESULTS: The Nt-ProBNP >1000 pg/ml (baseline and 6 months) and the variation rate (VR) >30% were independently associated with the survival and composite endpoint curve. VR >30% added significant prognostic information to the single Nt-ProBNP 1000 pg/ml cut-off. Patients with at least one Nt-ProBNP determination >1000 pg/ml were at greater risk of death. CONCLUSION: Serial Nt-ProBNP measurements in patients with SHF during the dry-state are strong predictors of the long-term prognosis.

Early NT-proBNP decrease with ivabradine in ambulatory patients with systolic heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart rate (HR) reduction in patients with systolic heart failure (HF) is a cornerstone of current therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the short-term effect of the HR reduction with ivabradine on N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in outpatients with systolic HF. HYPOTHESIS: Ivabradine improves survival and promotes left ventricle remodelling by reducing resting heart rate. Nt-ProBNP absolute and trends predict prognosis. We hypothesized a possible association between heart rate decrease and Nt-ProBNP values. METHODS: We included 25 outpatients with systolic HF on optimized medical therapy (80% on angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, 56% on spironolactone, and 88% on ß-blocker therapy), left ventricle ejection fraction <40%, and sinus rhythm and HR >70/bpm. After a 1 month running-out period, to establish the clinical and NT-proBNP stability, patients were started on ivabradine for 3 months. RESULTS: Ivabradine decreased NT-proBNP (P = 0.002) from a median of 2850 pg/mL to 1802 pg/mL, corresponding to a median absolute and percent decrease of 964 pg/mL and 44.5%, respectively. The baseline HR correlated significantly with the baseline NT-proBNP (rs = 0.411, P = 0.041). The absolute and percent HR decrease correlated with the absolute NT-proBNP decrease (rs = 0.442, P = 0.027; rs = 0.395, P = 0.05). The greater the NT-proBNP absolute decrease tertile, the greater the baseline HR (P = 0.023) and the absolute (P = 0.028) and percent (P = 0.064) HR variation. CONCLUSIONS: In outpatients with systolic HF, the NT-proBNP reduction obtained by short-term ivabradine treatment correlates closely with the degree of HR reduction.

Crystalline glucosamine sulfate in the treatment of osteoarthritis: evidence of long-term cardiovascular safety from clinical trials.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Glucosamine is a safe and common treatment for osteoarthritis. Even so, literature data on the cardiovascular safety of glucosamine are limited. The objective of this paper is to investigate the long-term effects of crystalline glucosamine sulfate (CGS) on key measures of cardiovascular risk in patients with osteoarthritis. METHODS: We analyzed safety data from two long-term (6-month and 3-year, respectively) randomized controlled trials of CGS. Mean changes in blood pressure, lipids, and glucose were calculated for all patients randomized to CGS or placebo in either study and for subgroups with abnormally elevated baseline values. Shift tables were used to analyze transitions from normal to abnormal levels, or vice versa. RESULTS: This analysis on 428 osteoarthritis patients includes data from subjects who had, on average, high normal blood pressure or high cholesterol at baseline. There were no significant changes in mean blood pressure after 6 months on CGS (systolic: -5±15 mmHg; diastolic: -5±10 mmHg) or placebo (systolic: -7±14 mmHg; diastolic: -4±10 mmHg). Subgroup analysis did not show significant effects in subjects with hypertension. Likewise, blood lipids (total/LDL cholesterol) and blood glucose did not change over 3 years and 6 months of treatment, respectively, even in hypercholesterolemic or hyperglycemic subjects. The proportions of patients whose blood pressure or cholesterol levels shifted from normal to abnormal, or vice versa, were comparable in the CGS and placebo groups. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term use of CGS did not affect blood pressure, lipids, or glucose in patients with osteoarthritis. These findings further support the cardiovascular safety of CGS.