RESUMEN
Identifying and quantifying source contributions of pollutant emissions are crucial for an effective control strategy to break through the bottleneck in reducing ambient PM2.5 levels over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China. In this study, an innovative response surface modeling technique with differential method (RSM-DM) has been developed and applied to investigate the PM2.5 contributions from multiple regions, sectors, and pollutants over the PRD region in 2015. The new differential method, with the ability to reproduce the nonlinear response surface of PM2.5 to precursor emissions by dissecting the emission changes into a series of small intervals, has shown to overcome the issue of the traditional brute force method in overestimating the accumulative contribution of precursor emissions to PM2.5. The results of this case study showed that PM2.5 in the PRD region was generally dominated by local emission sources (39-64%). Among the contributions of PM2.5 from various sectors and pollutants, the primary PM2.5 emissions from fugitive dust source contributed most (25-42%) to PM2.5 levels. The contributions of agriculture NH3 emissions (6-13%) could also play a significant role compared to other sectoral precursor emissions. Among the NOX sectors, the emissions control of stationary combustion source could be most effective in reducing PM2.5 levels over the PRD region.
RESUMEN
We used CMAQ-Hg to simulate mercury pollution and identify main sources in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with updated local emission inventory and latest regional and global emissions. The total anthropogenic mercury emissions in the PRD for 2014 were 11,939.6 kg. Power plants and industrial boilers were dominant sectors, responsible for 29.4 and 22.7%. We first compared model predictions and observations and the results showed a good performance. Then five scenarios with power plants (PP), municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI), industrial point sources (IP), natural sources (NAT), and boundary conditions (BCs) zeroed out separately were simulated and compared with the base case. BCs was responsible for over 30% of annual average mercury concentration and total deposition while NAT contributed around 15%. Among the anthropogenic sources, IP (22.9%) was dominant with a contribution over 20.0% and PP (18.9%) and MSWI (11.2%) ranked second and third. Results also showed that power plants were the most important emission sources in the central PRD, where the ultra-low emission for thermal power units need to be strengthened. In the northern and western PRD, cement and metal productions were priorities for mercury control. The fast growth of municipal solid waste incineration were also a key factor in the core areas. In addition, a coordinated regional mercury emission control was important for effectively controlling pollution. In the future, mercury emissions will decrease as control measures are strengthened, more attention should be paid to mercury deposition around the large point sources as high levels of pollution are observed.
