Cross-Sectional Study on Lateral Skull Radiographs to Design a New Nasopharyngeal Swab for Simplified COVID-19 and Respiratory Infections Diagnostic Testing in Children.

Nasopharyngeal swab sample collection is the first-line testing method for diagnosing COVID-19 infection and other respiratory infections. Current information on how to properly perform nasopharyngeal swabbing in children is largely defective. This study aimed at collecting nostril to nasopharynx distance measurements on lateral skull radiographs of children and adolescents to design a nasopharyngeal swab meant to standardize and facilitate the sample collection procedure. A total of 323 cephalograms of 152 male and 171 female children aged 4-14 years taken for orthodontic reasons were selected. On each cephalogram, the shortest distance between the most anterosuperior point of the nostril contour and the nasopharynx outline was measured in mm parallel to the palatal plane. Descriptive statistics of the measurements were calculated for each age group. The lower limit of the 95% confidence intervals of the measurements was taken as a reference to design a swab shaft with marks that, at each age, delimitate a safety boundary for swab progression up to the posterior nasopharyngeal wall. The simplification of the procedure enabled by the newly designed nasopharyngeal swab is valuable to help healthcare providers perform specimen collection on children in a safe and effective way, perhaps under the less-than-ideal conditions possibly occurring in 'point-of-need' contexts.

Long-term maintenance of virologic suppression in native and migrant HIV-1 naïve patients: an Italian cohort study.

Little is known about long-term maintenance of virologic suppression in HIV migrants in Italy. The study aims to compare virologic failure rates and associated factors among antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve migrants and natives enrolled in the ARCA database since 2007 who achieved virologic suppression within 18 months from the beginning of the ART. Kaplan-Meier method assessed the probability of virologic suppression and failure. Cox regression model was used for multivariate analysis. Of 2515 patients, 2020 (80.3%) were Italian, 286 (10.6%) migrants from low-income countries, of whom 201 (75.0%) from Africa, and 227 (9.0%) from high-income-countries. The median follow-up was 4.5 years (IQR 2.5-7). No difference was observed in the time of achievement of virological suppression in the three groups (log-rank: p = 0.5687). Higher probability of virologic failure was observed in Africans compared to Italians, to patients from high-income-countries and from low-income-countries other than Africans (Log-rank = p < 0.001). In the adjusted analysis, a higher virologic failure risk was found in Africans only compared to Italians. [HR 4.01; 95% CI 2.44-6.56, p < 0.001]. In Italy, African migrants are less likely to maintain virologic suppression compared to natives and other migrants. Targeted interventions could be needed for foreigners, especially for Africans.

A prognostic model for estimating the time to virologic failure in HIV-1 infected patients undergoing a new combination antiretroviral therapy regimen.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 genotypic susceptibility scores (GSSs) were proven to be significant prognostic factors of fixed time-point virologic outcomes after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) switch/initiation. However, their relative-hazard for the time to virologic failure has not been thoroughly investigated, and an expert system that is able to predict how long a new cART regimen will remain effective has never been designed. METHODS: We analyzed patients of the Italian ARCA cohort starting a new cART from 1999 onwards either after virologic failure or as treatment-naïve. The time to virologic failure was the endpoint, from the 90th day after treatment start, defined as the first HIV-1 RNA > 400 copies/ml, censoring at last available HIV-1 RNA before treatment discontinuation. We assessed the relative hazard/importance of GSSs according to distinct interpretation systems (Rega, ANRS and HIVdb) and other covariates by means of Cox regression and random survival forests (RSF). Prediction models were validated via the bootstrap and c-index measure. RESULTS: The dataset included 2337 regimens from 2182 patients, of which 733 were previously treatment-naïve. We observed 1067 virologic failures over 2820 persons-years. Multivariable analysis revealed that low GSSs of cART were independently associated with the hazard of a virologic failure, along with several other covariates. Evaluation of predictive performance yielded a modest ability of the Cox regression to predict the virologic endpoint (c-index≈0.70), while RSF showed a better performance (c-index≈0.73, p < 0.0001 vs. Cox regression). Variable importance according to RSF was concordant with the Cox hazards. CONCLUSIONS: GSSs of cART and several other covariates were investigated using linear and non-linear survival analysis. RSF models are a promising approach for the development of a reliable system that predicts time to virologic failure better than Cox regression. Such models might represent a significant improvement over the current methods for monitoring and optimization of cART.

Rules-based HIV-1 genotypic resistance interpretation systems predict 8 week and 24 week virological antiretroviral treatment outcome and benefit from drug potency weighting.

OBJECTIVES: To test retrospectively the ability of four freely available rules-based expert systems to predict short- and medium-term virological outcome following an antiretroviral treatment switch in pre-treated HIV-1 patients. METHODS: The HIV-1 genotype interpretation systems (GISs) HIVdb, ANRS, Rega and AntiRetroScan were tested for their accuracy in predicting response to highly active antiretroviral therapy using 8 week (n = 765) and 24 week (n = 634) follow-up standardized treatment change episodes extracted from the Italian Antiretroviral Resistance Cohort Analysis (ARCA) database. A genotypic sensitivity score (GSS) was derived for each genotype-treatment pair for the different GISs and tested as a predictor of virological treatment outcome by univariable and multivariable logistic regression as well as by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The two systems implementing drug potency weights (AntiRetroScan and Rega) were evaluated with and without this correction factor. RESULTS: All four GSSs were strong predictors of virological treatment outcome at both 8 and 24 weeks after adjusting for baseline viro-immunological parameters and previous drug exposure (odds ratios ranging from 2.04 to 2.43 per 1 unit GSS increase; P < 0.001 for all the systems). The accuracy of AntiRetroScan and Rega was significantly increased by drug potency weighting with respect to the unweighted versions (P