Machine learning-based 2-year risk prediction tool in immunoglobulin A nephropathy.

Background: This study aimed to develop a machine learning-based 2-year risk prediction model for early identification of patients with rapid progressive immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). We also assessed the model's performance to predict the long-term kidney-related outcome of patients. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 1,301 patients with biopsy-proven IgAN from two tertiary hospitals was used to derive and externally validate a random forest-based prediction model predicting primary outcome (30% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate from baseline or end-stage kidney disease requiring renal replacement therapy) and secondary outcome (improvement of proteinuria) within 2 years after kidney biopsy. Results: For the 2-year prediction of primary outcomes, precision, recall, area-under-the-curve, precision-recall-curve, F1, and Brier score were 0.259, 0.875, 0.771, 0.242, 0.400, and 0.309, respectively. The values for the secondary outcome were 0.904, 0.971, 0.694, 0.903, 0.955, and 0.113, respectively. From Shapley Additive exPlanations analysis, the most informative feature identifying both outcomes was baseline proteinuria. When Kaplan-Meier analysis for 10-year kidney outcome risk was performed with three groups by predicting probabilities derived from the 2-year primary outcome prediction model (low, moderate, and high), high (hazard ratio [HR], 13.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.52-17.77) and moderate (HR, 12.90; 95% CI, 9.92-16.76) groups showed higher risks compared with the low group. From the 2-year secondary outcome prediction model, low (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.42-1.95) and moderate (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 0.99-2.03) groups were at greater risk for 10-year prognosis than the high group. Conclusion: Our machine learning-based 2-year risk prediction models for the progression of IgAN showed reliable performance and effectively predicted long-term kidney outcome.

Prediction of Serious Intracranial Hypertension from Low-Resolution Neuromonitoring in Traumatic Brain Injury: An Explainable Machine Learning Approach.

There is a strong association between intracranial hypertension (IH) that occurs following the acute phase of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and negative outcomes. This study proposes a pressure-time dose (PTD)-based parameter that may specify a possible serious IH (SIH) event and develops a model to predict SIH. The minute-by-minute signals of arterial blood pressure (ABP) and intracranial pressure (ICP) of 117 TBI patients were utilized as the internal validation dataset. The SIH event was explored through the prognostic power of the IH event variables for the outcome after 6 months, and an IH event with thresholds that included an ICP of 20 mmHg and PTD > 130 mmHg * minutes was considered an SIH event. The physiological characteristics of normal, IH and SIH events were investigated. LightGBM was employed to forecast an SIH event from various time intervals using physiological parameters derived from the ABP and ICP. Training and validation were conducted on 1,921 SIH events. External validation was performed on two multi-center datasets containing 26 and 382 SIH events. The SIH parameters could be used to predict mortality (AUROC = 0.893, p < 0.001) and favorability (AUROC = 0.858, p < 0.001). The trained model robustly forecasted SIH after 5 and 480 minutes with an accuracy of 86.95% and 72.18% in internal validation. External validation also revealed a similar performance. This study demonstrated that the proposed SIH prediction model has reasonable predictive capacities. A future intervention study is required to investigate whether the definition of SIH is maintained in multi-center data and to ensure the effects of the predictive system on TBI patient outcomes at the bedside.

Biosignal-Based Digital Biomarkers for Prediction of Ventilator Weaning Success.

We evaluated new features from biosignals comprising diverse physiological response information to predict the outcome of weaning from mechanical ventilation (MV). We enrolled 89 patients who were candidates for weaning from MV in the intensive care unit and collected continuous biosignal data: electrocardiogram (ECG), respiratory impedance, photoplethysmogram (PPG), arterial blood pressure, and ventilator parameters during a spontaneous breathing trial (SBT). We compared the collected biosignal data's variability between patients who successfully discontinued MV (n = 67) and patients who did not (n = 22). To evaluate the usefulness of the identified factors for predicting weaning success, we developed a machine learning model and evaluated its performance by bootstrapping. The following markers were different between the weaning success and failure groups: the ratio of standard deviations between the short-term and long-term heart rate variability in a Poincaré plot, sample entropy of ECG and PPG, α values of ECG, and respiratory impedance in the detrended fluctuation analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.70-0.92). This combination of the biosignal data-based markers obtained during SBTs provides a promising tool to assist clinicians in determining the optimal extubation time.

Quantitative Evaluation of the Relationship between T-Wave-Based Features and Serum Potassium Level in Real-World Clinical Practice.

BACKGROUND: Proper management of hyperkalemia that leads to fatal cardiac arrhythmia has become more important because of the increased prevalence of hyperkalemia-prone diseases. Although T-wave changes in hyperkalemia are well known, their usefulness is debatable. We evaluated how well T-wave-based features of electrocardiograms (ECGs) are correlated with estimated serum potassium levels using ECG data from real-world clinical practice. METHODS: We collected ECGs from a local ECG repository (MUSE™) from 1994 to 2017 and extracted the ECG waveforms. Of about 1 million reports, 124,238 were conducted within 5 minutes before or after blood collection for serum potassium estimation. We randomly selected 500 ECGs and two evaluators measured the amplitude (T-amp) and right slope of the T-wave (T-right slope) on five lead waveforms (V3, V4, V5, V6, and II). Linear correlations of T-amp, T-right slope, and their normalized feature (T-norm) with serum potassium levels were evaluated using Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. RESULTS: Pearson correlation coefficients for T-wave-based features with serum potassium between the two evaluators were 0.99 for T-amp and 0.97 for T-right slope. The coefficient for the association between T-amp, T-right slope, and T-norm, and serum potassium ranged from -0.22 to 0.02. In the normal ECG subgroup (normal ECG or otherwise normal ECG), there was no correlation between T-wave-based features and serum potassium level. CONCLUSIONS: T-wave-based features were not correlated with serum potassium level, and their use in real clinical practice is currently limited.