The impact of reclassifying cancers of unspecified histology on international differences in survival for small cell and non-small cell lung cancer (ICBP SurvMark-2 project).

Survival from lung cancer remains low, yet is the most common cancer diagnosed worldwide. With survival contrasting between the main histological groupings, small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), it is important to assess the extent that geographical differences could be from varying proportions of cancers with unspecified histology across countries. Lung cancer cases diagnosed 2010-2014, followed until 31 December 2015 were provided by cancer registries from seven countries for the ICBP SURVMARK-2 project. Multiple imputation was used to reassign cases with unspecified histology into SCLC, NSCLC and other. One-year and three-year age-standardised net survival were estimated by histology, sex, age group and country. In all, 404 617 lung cancer cases were included, of which 47 533 (11.7%) and 262 040 (64.8%) were SCLC and NSCLC. The proportion of unspecified cases varied, from 11.2% (Denmark) to 29.0% (The United Kingdom). After imputation with unspecified histology, survival variations remained: 1-year SCLC survival ranged from 28.0% (New Zealand) to 35.6% (Australia) NSCLC survival from 39.4% (The United Kingdom) to 49.5% (Australia). The largest survival change after imputation was for 1-year NSCLC (4.9 percentage point decrease). Similar variations were observed for 3-year survival. The oldest age group had lowest survival and largest decline after imputation. International variations in SCLC and NSCLC survival are only partially attributable to differences in the distribution of unspecified histology. While it is important that registries and clinicians aim to improve completeness in classifying cancers, it is likely that other factors play a larger role, including underlying risk factors, stage, comorbidity and care management which warrants investigation.

The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival: A simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer registries strive to cover all cancer cases diagnosed within the population, but some cases will always be missed and no register is 100 % complete. Many cancer registries use death certificates to identify additional cases not captured through other routine sources, to hopefully add a large proportion of the missed cases. Cases notified through this route, who would not have been captured without death certificate information, are referred to as Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases. Inclusion of DCI cases in cancer registries increases completeness and is important for estimating cancer incidence. However, inclusion of DCI cases will generally lead to biased estimates of cancer survival, but the same is often also true if excluding DCI cases. Missed cases are probably not a random sample of all cancer cases, but rather cases with poor prognosis. Further, DCI cases have poorer prognosis than missed cases in general, since they have all died with cancer mentioned on the death certificates. METHODS: We performed a simulation study to estimate the impact of including or excluding DCI cases on cancer survival estimates, under different scenarios. RESULTS: We demonstrated that including DCI cases underestimates survival. The exclusion of DCI cases gives unbiased survival estimates if missed cases are a random sample of all cancer cases, while survival is overestimated if these have poorer prognosis. CONCLUSION: In our most extreme scenarios, with 25 % of cases initially missed, the usual practice of including DCI cases underestimated 5-year survival by at most 3 percentage points.

Exploring the impact of cancer registry completeness on international cancer survival differences: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Data from population-based cancer registries are often used to compare cancer survival between countries or regions. The ICBP SURVMARK-2 study is an international partnership aiming to quantify and explore the reasons behind survival differences across high-income countries. However, the magnitude and relevance of differences in cancer survival between countries have been questioned, as it is argued that observed survival variations may be explained, at least in part, by differences in cancer registration practice, completeness and the availability and quality of the respective data sources. METHODS: As part of the ICBP SURVMARK-2 study, we used a simulation approach to better understand how differences in completeness, the characteristics of those missed and inclusion of cases found from death certificates can impact on cancer survival estimates. RESULTS: Bias in 1- and 5-year net survival estimates for 216 simulated scenarios is presented. Out of the investigated factors, the proportion of cases not registered through sources other than death certificates, had the largest impact on survival estimates. CONCLUSION: Our results show that the differences in registration practice between participating countries could in our most extreme scenarios explain only a part of the largest observed differences in cancer survival.

Progress in cancer survival, mortality, and incidence in seven high-income countries 1995-2014 (ICBP SURVMARK-2): a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer survival estimates provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of cancer services and can reflect the prospects of cure. As part of the second phase of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP), the Cancer Survival in High-Income Countries (SURVMARK-2) project aims to provide a comprehensive overview of cancer survival across seven high-income countries and a comparative assessment of corresponding incidence and mortality trends. METHODS: In this longitudinal, population-based study, we collected patient-level data on 3·9 million patients with cancer from population-based cancer registries in 21 jurisdictions in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK) for seven sites of cancer (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, and ovary) diagnosed between 1995 and 2014, and followed up until Dec 31, 2015. We calculated age-standardised net survival at 1 year and 5 years after diagnosis by site, age group, and period of diagnosis. We mapped changes in incidence and mortality to changes in survival to assess progress in cancer control. FINDINGS: In 19 eligible jurisdictions, 3 764 543 cases of cancer were eligible for inclusion in the study. In the 19 included jurisdictions, over 1995-2014, 1-year and 5-year net survival increased in each country across almost all cancer types, with, for example, 5-year rectal cancer survival increasing more than 13 percentage points in Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. For 2010-14, survival was generally higher in Australia, Canada, and Norway than in New Zealand, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. Over the study period, larger survival improvements were observed for patients younger than 75 years at diagnosis than those aged 75 years and older, and notably for cancers with a poor prognosis (ie, oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, and lung). Progress in cancer control (ie, increased survival, decreased mortality and incidence) over the study period was evident for stomach, colon, lung (in males), and ovarian cancer. INTERPRETATION: The joint evaluation of trends in incidence, mortality, and survival indicated progress in four of the seven studied cancers. Cancer survival continues to increase across high-income countries; however, international disparities persist. While truly valid comparisons require differences in registration practice, classification, and coding to be minimal, stage of disease at diagnosis, timely access to effective treatment, and the extent of comorbidity are likely the main determinants of patient outcomes. Future studies are needed to assess the impact of these factors to further our understanding of international disparities in cancer survival. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; The Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.

The fraction of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the United Kingdom in 2015.

BACKGROUND: Changing population-level exposure to modifiable risk factors is a key driver of changing cancer incidence. Understanding these changes is therefore vital when prioritising risk-reduction policies, in order to have the biggest impact on reducing cancer incidence. UK figures on the number of risk factor-attributable cancers are updated here to reflect changing behaviour as assessed in representative national surveys, and new epidemiological evidence. Figures are also presented by UK constituent country because prevalence of risk factor exposure varies between them. METHODS: Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for combinations of risk factor and cancer type with sufficient/convincing evidence of a causal association. Relative risks (RRs) were drawn from meta-analyses of cohort studies where possible. Prevalence of exposure to risk factors was obtained from nationally representative population surveys. Cancer incidence data for 2015 were sourced from national data releases and, where needed, personal communications. PAF calculations were stratified by age, sex and risk factor exposure level and then combined to create summary PAFs by cancer type, sex and country. RESULTS: Nearly four in ten (37.7%) cancer cases in 2015 in the UK were attributable to known risk factors. The proportion was around two percentage points higher in UK males (38.6%) than in UK females (36.8%). Comparing UK countries, the attributable proportion was highest in Scotland (41.5% for persons) and lowest in England (37.3% for persons). Tobacco smoking contributed by far the largest proportion of attributable cancer cases, followed by overweight/obesity, accounting for 15.1% and 6.3%, respectively, of all cases in the UK in 2015. For 10 cancer types, including two of the five most common cancer types in the UK (lung cancer and melanoma skin cancer), more than 70% of UK cancer cases were attributable to known risk factors. CONCLUSION: Tobacco and overweight/obesity remain the top contributors of attributable cancer cases. Tobacco smoking has the highest PAF because it greatly increases cancer risk and has a large number of cancer types associated with it. Overweight/obesity has the second-highest PAF because it affects a high proportion of the UK population and is also linked with many cancer types. Public health policy may seek to mitigate the level of harm associated with exposure or reduce exposure levels-both approaches may effectively impact cancer incidence. Differences in PAFs between countries and sexes are primarily due to varying prevalence of exposure to risk factors and varying proportions of specific cancer types. This variation in turn is affected by socio-demographic differences which drive differences in exposure to theoretically avoidable 'lifestyle' factors. PAFs at UK country level have not been available previously and they should be used by policymakers in devolved nations. PAFs are estimates based on the best available data, limitations in those data would generally bias toward underestimation of PAFs. Regular collection of risk factor exposure prevalence data which corresponds with epidemiological evidence is vital for analyses like this and should remain a priority for the UK Government and devolved Administrations.

Cancers in Australia in 2010 attributable to modifiable factors: introduction and overview.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the approach underpinning a national project to estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 that are attributable to modifiable causal factors. METHODS: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) (or prevented fraction) of cancers associated with exposure to causal (or preventive) factors using standard formulae. Where possible, we also estimated the potential impact on cancer incidence resulting from changes in prevalence of exposure. Analyses were restricted to factors declared causal by international agencies: tobacco smoke; alcohol; solar radiation; infectious agents; obesity; insufficient physical activity; insufficient intakes of fruits, vegetables and fibre; red and processed meat; menopausal hormone therapy (MHT); oral contraceptive pill (OCP); and insufficient breast feeding. Separately, we estimated numbers of cancers prevented by: aspirin; sunscreen; MHT; and OCP use. We discuss assumptions pertaining to latent periods between exposure and cancer onset, choices of prevalence data and risk estimates, and approaches to sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Numbers and population attributable fractions of cancer are presented in accompanying papers. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first systematic assessment of population attributable fractions of cancer in Australia.

Cancers in Australia in 2010 attributable to modifiable factors: summary and conclusions.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to modifiable causal factors. METHODS: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancers associated with exposure to 13 causal factors using standard formulae incorporating exposure prevalence and relative risk data. We also calculated the potential impact of changing exposure to some factors. RESULTS: A total of 32% of all cancers diagnosed in Australia in 2010 (excluding keratinocyte cancers) were attributable to the 13 factors assessed (men 33%; women 31%). Leading factors were tobacco smoke (PAF all cancers: 13.4%), solar radiation (6.2%), inadequate diet (6.1%) and overweight/obesity (3.4%). Factors conferring highest PAFs differed by sex: highest PAFs for men were tobacco smoke (15.8%), solar radiation (7.1%) and alcohol (3.0%); while highest PAFs for women were tobacco smoke (10.1%), solar radiation (5.0%) and overweight/obesity (4.5%). Sites with the highest counts of potentially preventable cancers were lung (8,569), colorectal (7,404), melanoma of the skin (7,220) and breast (3,233). CONCLUSIONS: At least one in three cancers in Australia is attributable to exposure to known modifiable factors. IMPLICATIONS: Up to 37,000 cancers could be prevented in Australia each year if the population avoided exposure to 13 common factors known or strongly suspected to cause cancer.

The incidence of oesophageal cancer in Eastern Africa: identification of a new geographic hot spot?

The incidence of oesophageal cancer (OC) varies geographically, with more than 80% of cases and deaths worldwide occurring in developing countries. The aim of this study is to characterize the disease burden of OC in four urban populations in Eastern Africa, which may represent a previously undescribed high-incidence area. Data on all cases of OC diagnosed between 2004 and 2008 were obtained from four population-based cancer registries in: Blantyre, Malawi; Harare, Zimbabwe; Kampala, Uganda; and Nairobi, Kenya. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated for each population, and descriptive statistics for incident cases were determined. In Blantyre, 351 male (59%) and 239 (41%) female cases were reported, with ASRs of 47.2 and 30.3. In Harare, 213 male (61%) and 134 (39%) female cases were reported, with ASRs of 33.4 and 25.3, respectively. In Kampala, 196 male (59%) and 137 female (41%) cases were reported, with ASRs of 36.7 and 24.8. In Nairobi, 323 male (57%) and 239 female (43%) cases were reported, with ASRs of 22.6 and 21.6. Median age at diagnosis was significantly different among the four populations, ranging from 50 years in Blantyre to 65 years in Harare (p<0.0001). Except in Nairobi, incidence among males was significantly higher than among females (p<0.01). Squamous cell OC was the predominant histologic subtype at all sites. ASRs at all four sites were remarkably higher than the mean worldwide ASR. Investigation to evaluate potential etiologic effects of dietary, lifestyle, environmental, and other factors impacting the incidence in this region is needed.

Once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening in prevention of colorectal cancer: a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer worldwide and has a high mortality rate. We tested the hypothesis that only one flexible sigmoidoscopy screening between 55 and 64 years of age can substantially reduce colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: This randomised controlled trial was undertaken in 14 UK centres. 170 432 eligible men and women, who had indicated on a previous questionnaire that they would accept an invitation for screening, were randomly allocated to the intervention group (offered flexible sigmoidoscopy screening) or the control group (not contacted). Randomisation by sequential number generation was done centrally in blocks of 12, with stratification by trial centre, general practice, and household type. The primary outcomes were the incidence of colorectal cancer, including prevalent cases detected at screening, and mortality from colorectal cancer. Analyses were intention to treat and per protocol. The trial is registered, number ISRCTN28352761. FINDINGS: 113 195 people were assigned to the control group and 57 237 to the intervention group, of whom 112 939 and 57 099, respectively, were included in the final analyses. 40 674 (71%) people underwent flexible sigmoidoscopy. During screening and median follow-up of 11.2 years (IQR 10.7-11.9), 2524 participants were diagnosed with colorectal cancer (1818 in control group vs 706 in intervention group) and 20 543 died (13 768 vs 6775; 727 certified from colorectal cancer [538 vs 189]). In intention-to-treat analyses, colorectal cancer incidence in the intervention group was reduced by 23% (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.70-0.84) and mortality by 31% (0.69, 0.59-0.82). In per-protocol analyses, adjusting for self-selection bias in the intervention group, incidence of colorectal cancer in people attending screening was reduced by 33% (0.67, 0.60-0.76) and mortality by 43% (0.57, 0.45-0.72). Incidence of distal colorectal cancer (rectum and sigmoid colon) was reduced by 50% (0.50, 0.42-0.59; secondary outcome). The numbers needed to be screened to prevent one colorectal cancer diagnosis or death, by the end of the study period, were 191 (95% CI 145-277) and 489 (343-852), respectively. INTERPRETATION: Flexible sigmoidoscopy is a safe and practical test and, when offered only once between ages 55 and 64 years, confers a substantial and longlasting benefit. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, National Health Service R&D, Cancer Research UK, KeyMed.

Fifty years of cancer incidence: CI5 I-IX.

The Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) series comprises nine volumes that bring together peer-reviewed results from population-based cancer registries worldwide. The aim of each is to make available comparable data on cancer incidence from as wide a range of geographical locations as possible. In addition, the existence of long time series of data allows the evolution of risk in different populations over time to be studied. The CI5 I-IX database brings together the results from all nine volumes, spanning a period of some 50 years. In addition, unpublished annual data, with more diagnostic detail, are made available for many cancer registries with 15 or more years of recent data. We describe the construction and composition of the CI5 databases, and provide examples of how they can be used to prepare tables and graphs comparing incidence rates between populations. This is the classical role of descriptive statistics: to allow formulation of hypotheses that might explain the observed differences (geographically, over time, in population subgroups) and that can be tested by further study. Such statistics are also essential components in the planning and evaluation of cancer control programmes.

Evaluation of data quality in the cancer registry: principles and methods. Part I: comparability, validity and timeliness.

The value of the modern cancer registry and its ability to carry out cancer control activities rely heavily on the underlying quality of its data and the quality control procedures in place. This two-part review provides an update of the practical aspects and techniques for addressing data quality at the cancer registry. This first installment of the review examines the factors influencing three of the four key aspects, namely, the comparability, validity and timeliness of cancer registry data. Comparability of cancer data may be established through a comprehensive review of the registration routines in place. Validity is examined via numerical indices of that permit comparisons with other registries, or, within a registry, over time, or with respect to specified subsets of cases. There are no international guidelines for timeliness at present, although specific standards for the abstraction and reporting of registry have been set out by certain organisations.

Evaluation of data quality in the cancer registry: principles and methods Part II. Completeness.

The completeness of cancer registry data -- the extent to which all of the incident cancers occurring in the population are included in the registry database -- is an extremely important attribute of a cancer registry. Only a high degree of completeness in case-finding procedures will ensure cancer incidence rates and survival proportions are close to their true value. This second instalment of a two-part review of data quality methods at the cancer registry, focuses on the principles and techniques available for estimating completeness, separating methods into those that are semi-quantitative -- in that they give an indication of the degree of completeness relative to other registries or over time, and more quantitative techniques -- those that provide a numerical evaluation of the extent to which all eligible cases have been registered.

How many cervical cancers are prevented by treatment of screen-detected disease in young women?

Others have argued that as many as a third of women treated for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) would have developed cervical cancer in the absence of screening and treatment. Under various assumptions and using past data on CIN grade 3 (CIN3) registrations in England and Scotland, we estimate what cervical cancer rates would have been in the absence of screening. Data on registrations of cervical carcinoma in situ for England and Scotland were used to project the additional numbers of invasive cervical cancers that would have resulted had the carcinoma in situ not been treated. We compare the resulting cervical cancer rates (under different models) with rates recorded in Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents. In order for the projected rates in England and Scotland at ages 20-24 not to be exceptionally high compared to maximum recorded rates for each registry in Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents, the progression rate from CIN3 to invasive cancer in women aged 20-24 should not exceed 1% per year. Similar progression rates were reasonable for women aged 25-29. Under the previously accepted assumption of 4.33% progression per year, cervical cancer rates in women aged 20-29 in both England and Scotland would have been 2-5 times greater than any observed rate (other than one registry, based on just 4 cases). From this analysis, at most 1.5% of women treated (equivalent to 3% of CIN3 registrations) would have had cancer by age 25, whereas it is reasonable to assume that over half of them would have regressed by age 25.

Part II: Cancer in Indigenous Africans--causes and control.

Africa has contributed substantial knowledge to the understanding of certain risk factors for cancer, such as the role of several infectious agents (eg, viruses, bacteria, and parasites), aflatoxins, and certain lifestyle factors. Although the relative importance of many lifestyle factors is becoming better understood in developed countries, more work is needed to understand the importance of these factors in different African settings. In view of the substantial genetic diversity in Africa, it would be prudent not to generalize too widely from one place to the next. We argue that risks for several exposures related to certain cancers differ from the patterns seen in developed countries. In this paper, we review the current knowledge of causes of some of the leading cancers in Africa, namely cancers of the cervix, breast, liver, prostate, stomach, bladder, and oesophagus, Kaposi's sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and tobacco-related cancers. There are no comprehensive cancer-control programmes in Africa and provision of radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and palliation is inadequate. Certain cost-effective interventions, such as tobacco control, provision of antiretroviral therapy, and malarial and bilharzial control, can cause substantial decreases in the burden of some of these cancers. Vaccinations against hepatitis B and oncogenic human papilloma viruses can make the biggest difference, but very few countries in Africa can afford these vaccines without substantial subsidization.

Part I: Cancer in Indigenous Africans--burden, distribution, and trends.

Cancer is an under-emphasised issue in Africa, partly because of the overwhelming burden of communicable diseases. However cancer is a common disease in Africa with 650 000 people, of a population of 965 million, diagnosed annually. Furthermore, the lifetime risk in females (between 0 and 64 years) of cancer is about 10%, which is only about 30% lower than the risk in developed countries. In females, the lifetime risk of dying from cancer in Africa is almost double the risk in developed countries. This Review is the first of two papers and focuses on the current knowledge of the distribution and trends of the most common cancers in Africa. The cancers with the highest incidence are cervical, breast, and now HIV-associated Kaposi's sarcoma. The top five cancers in males--Kaposi's sarcoma (constituting 12.9% of all cancers in males) and cancer of the liver (14.8%), prostate (9.5%), bladder (6.1%), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (5.7%)--and in females--cancer of the cervix (constituting 23.3% of all cancers in females) and breast (19.2%), Kaposi's sarcoma (5.1%), cancer of the liver (5.0%), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (3.7%)--are discussed in detail. The second paper will focus on the causes and control of cancer in Africa. The cancer burden in Africa is likely to increase as a result of increases in HIV-associated cancers, changes in lifestyles associated with economic development, and the increasing age of the population (despite AIDS). Although the knowledge of cancer in this region is improving, better surveillance of cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence of risk factors is urgently needed to monitor the development of the cancer epidemic, formulate appropriate cancer-control strategies, and assess the outcomes of these strategies.

Usefulness of combining testing for p16 protein and human papillomavirus (HPV) in cervical carcinoma screening.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the value of the combination of p16 and HPV detection in the screening for cervical cancer. METHODS: 186 patients with previous abnormal cervical lesion were studied. After colposcopic examination, two conventional Pap slides were prepared: the first was Papanicolaou-stained and examined by cytologist; the second was immunocytochemically stained for p16. Cervical cells were collected by brush using for HPV detection by Hybrid Capture II. Biopsy of any colposcopically abnormal lesions was performed. RESULTS: The 186 cervical samples were classified cytologically as normal (148), ASCUS (13), low-grade (11), high-grade (12) dysplasia and squamous cell carcinoma (2). P16 and HPV were found in all high-grade dysplasia and SCC, and in 64% and 27% of low-grade dysplasia, 62% and 0% of ASCUS and 7.4% and 3.4% of normal, respectively. 18 of p16-positive cases (11%) were HPV-negative, 14 of them in the ASCUS and normal group. Compared to histological results, all of the p16-positive cases of squamous metaplasia, CIN II/III and SCC were HR-HPV-positive. Therefore, the cases that were positive for both with normal cytology (5 cases) or low-grade dysplasia (3 cases) may comprise a high-risk group for neoplastic change. CONCLUSION: The combination of p16 and HPV detection may be useful in cervical cancer screening to identify high-risk patients requiring early and proper management.

International lung cancer trends by histologic type: male:female differences diminishing and adenocarcinoma rates rising.

Lung cancer rates have peaked among men in many areas of the world, but rates among women continue to rise. Most lung cancers are squamous cell carcinoma, small cell carcinoma, or adenocarcinoma; trends vary according to type. We compiled population-based morphology-specific incidence data from registries contributing to the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) databases. Unspecified cancers and carcinomas were reallocated based on a registry, time period, sex and age group-specific basis. Where available, data from several registries within a country were pooled for analysis. Rates per 100,000 person-years for 1980-1982 to 1995-1997 were age-adjusted by the direct method using the world standard. Squamous cell carcinoma rates among males declined 30% or more in North America and some European countries while changing less dramatically in other areas; small cell carcinoma rates decreased less rapidly. Squamous and small cell carcinoma rates among females generally rose, with the increases especially pronounced in the Netherlands and Norway. In contrast, adenocarcinoma rates rose among males and females in virtually all areas, with the increases among males exceeding 50% in many areas of Europe; among females, rates also rose rapidly and more than doubled in Norway, Italy and France. Rates of all lung cancer types among women and adenocarcinoma among men continue to rise despite declining cigarette use in many Western countries and shifts to filtered/low-tar cigarettes. Renewed efforts toward cessation and prevention are mandatory to curb the prevalence of cigarette smoking and to reduce lung cancer rates eventually.

Trends in cervical squamous cell carcinoma incidence in 13 European countries: changing risk and the effects of screening.

Despite there being sufficient evidence for the effectiveness of screening by cytology in preventing cancer of the cervix uteri, screening policies vary widely among European countries, and incidence is increasing in younger women. This study analyzes trends in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix uteri in 13 European countries to evaluate effectiveness of screening against a background of changing risk. Age-period-cohort models were fitted and period and cohort effects were estimated; these were considered as primarily indicative of screening interventions and changing etiology, respectively. A unique set of estimates was derived by fixing age slopes to one of several plausible age curves under the assumption that the relation between age and cervical cancer incidence is biologically determined. There were period-specific declines in cervical SCC in several countries, with the largest decreases seen in northern Europe. A pattern emerged across Europe of escalating risk in successive generations born after 1930. In the western European countries, a decrease followed by a stabilization of risk by cohort was accompanied by period-specific declines. In southern Europe, stable period, but increasing cohort trends, were observed. Substantial changes have occurred in cervical SCC incidence in Europe and well-organized screening programs have been highly effective in reducing the incidence of cervical SCC. Screening and changing sexual mores largely explain the changing period- and cohort-specific patterns, respectively. The increasing risk in recent cohorts is of obvious concern particularly in countries where no screening programs are in place. Further investigation of the effectiveness of opportunistic screening is warranted as is the observation of differing risk patterns in young cohorts in countries with relatively similar societal structures.

Global cancer statistics, 2002.

Estimates of the worldwide incidence, mortality and prevalence of 26 cancers in the year 2002 are now available in the GLOBOCAN series of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The results are presented here in summary form, including the geographic variation between 20 large "areas" of the world. Overall, there were 10.9 million new cases, 6.7 million deaths, and 24.6 million persons alive with cancer (within three years of diagnosis). The most commonly diagnosed cancers are lung (1.35 million), breast (1.15 million), and colorectal (1 million); the most common causes of cancer death are lung cancer (1.18 million deaths), stomach cancer (700,000 deaths), and liver cancer (598,000 deaths). The most prevalent cancer in the world is breast cancer (4.4 million survivors up to 5 years following diagnosis). There are striking variations in the risk of different cancers by geographic area. Most of the international variation is due to exposure to known or suspected risk factors related to lifestyle or environment, and provides a clear challenge to prevention.

Human papillomavirus infection among women in South and North Vietnam.

The incidence rate of invasive cervical carcinoma (ICC) is 4-fold higher in Ho Chi Minh City, in the South of Vietnam, than in Hanoi, in the North. Thus, we explored the prevalence of and the risk factors for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in these 2 areas. A population-based random sample of married women aged 15-69 years were interviewed and had a gynaecological examination in the urban district of Ho Chi Minh City and in a peri-urban district in Hanoi. HPV DNA detection was performed using a GP5+/6+ primer-mediated PCR enzyme immunoassay. A total of 922 women from Ho Chi Minh and 994 from Hanoi, for whom a Pap smear and HPV-status were available, were evaluated. HPV DNA was detected among 10.9% of women in Ho Chi Minh City and 2.0% in Hanoi (age standardized prevalence, world standard population: 10.6% and 2.3%, respectively). In the 2 areas combined, 30 different HPV types were found, the most common being HPV 16 (in 14 single and 18 multiple infections), followed by HPV 58, 18 and 56. A peak of HPV DNA detection in women younger than age 25 was found in Ho Chi Minh City (22.3%) but not in Hanoi. Major risk factors for HPV DNA detection were indicators of sexual habits, most notably the presence of HSV-2 antibodies, nulliparity and the current use of oral contraceptives. Women in Hanoi showed the lowest HPV prevalence ever reported so far, suggesting that HPV has not spread widely in this population. As expected, HPV prevalence in a population seemed to be closely correlated with ICC incidence rates.