Mechanistic characterization of oscillatory patterns in unperturbed tumor growth dynamics: The interplay between cancer cells and components of tumor microenvironment.

Mathematical modeling of unperturbed and perturbed tumor growth dynamics (TGD) in preclinical experiments provides an opportunity to establish translational frameworks. The most commonly used unperturbed tumor growth models (i.e. linear, exponential, Gompertz and Simeoni) describe a monotonic increase and although they capture the mean trend of the data reasonably well, systematic model misspecifications can be identified. This represents an opportunity to investigate possible underlying mechanisms controlling tumor growth dynamics through a mathematical framework. The overall goal of this work is to develop a data-driven semi-mechanistic model describing non-monotonic tumor growth in untreated mice. For this purpose, longitudinal tumor volume profiles from different tumor types and cell lines were pooled together and analyzed using the population approach. After characterizing the oscillatory patterns (oscillator half-periods between 8-11 days) and confirming that they were systematically observed across the different preclinical experiments available (p<10-9), a tumor growth model was built including the interplay between resources (i.e. oxygen or nutrients), angiogenesis and cancer cells. The new structure, in addition to improving the model diagnostic compared to the previously used tumor growth models (i.e. AIC reduction of 71.48 and absence of autocorrelation in the residuals (p>0.05)), allows the evaluation of the different oncologic treatments in a mechanistic way. Drug effects can potentially, be included in relevant processes taking place during tumor growth. In brief, the new model, in addition to describing non-monotonic tumor growth and the interaction between biological factors of the tumor microenvironment, can be used to explore different drug scenarios in monotherapy or combination during preclinical drug development.

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for V937 oncolytic virus in mice.

Introduction: Oncolytic viruses (OVs) represent a novel therapeutic strategy in oncology due to their capability to selectively infect and replicate in cancer cells, triggering a direct and/or immune-induced tumor lysis. However, the mechanisms governing OV pharmacokinetics are still poorly understood. This work aims to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of the novel OV, V937, in non-tumor-bearing mice to get a quantitative understanding of its elimination and tissue uptake processes. Materials and methods: Model development was performed using data obtained from 60 mice. Viral levels were quantified from eight tissues after a single intravenous V937 dose. An external dataset was used for model validation. This test set included multiple-dose experiments with different routes of administration. V937 distribution in each organ was described using a physiological structure based on mouse-specific organ blood flows and volumes. Analyses were performed using the non-linear mixed-effects approach with NONMEM 7.4. Results: Viral levels showed a drop from 108 to 105 copies/µg RNA at day 1 in blood, reflected in a high estimate of total clearance (18.2 mL/h). A well-stirred model provided an adequate description for all organs except the muscle and heart, where a saturable uptake process improved data description. The highest numbers of viral copies were observed in the brain, lymph node, kidney, liver, lung, and spleen on the first day after injection. On the other hand, the maximum amount of viral copies in the heart, muscle, and pancreas occurred 3 days after administration. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first physiologically based pharmacokinetic model developed to characterize OV biodistribution, representing a relevant source of quantitative knowledge regarding the in vivo behavior of OVs. This model can be further expanded by adding a tumor compartment, where OVs could replicate.

Assessment of Clinical Response to V937 Oncolytic Virus After Intravenous or Intratumoral Administration Using Physiologically-Based Modeling.

Oncolytic viruses (OVs) represent a potential therapeutic strategy in cancer treatment. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive quantitative models characterizing clinical OV kinetics and distribution to the tumor. In this work, we present a mechanistic modeling framework for V937 OV, after intratumoral (i.t.) or intravascular (i.v.) administration in patients with cancer. A minimal physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model was built to characterize biodistribution of OVs in humans. Viral dynamics was incorporated at the i.t. cellular level and linked to tumor response, enabling the characterization of a direct OV killing triggered by the death of infected tumor cells and an indirect killing induced by the immune response. The model provided an adequate description of changes in V937 mRNA levels and tumor size obtained from phase I/II clinical trials after V937 administration. The model showed prominent role of viral clearance from systemic circulation and infectivity in addition to known tumor aggressiveness on clinical response. After i.v. administration, i.t. exposure of V937 was predicted to be several orders of magnitude lower compared with i.t. administration. These differences could be overcome if there is high virus infectivity and/or replication. Unfortunately, the latter process could not be identified at the current clinical setting. This work provides insights on selecting optimal OV considering replication rate and infectivity.

Population pharmacokinetics of sublingually administered tacrolimus in infants and young children with liver transplantation.

AIMS: Pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus after sublingual administration is not characterized in paediatric liver transplant patients. Therefore, we aimed to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of sublingually administered tacrolimus in patients who cannot swallow the capsules due to their age, sedation status and/or mechanical ventilation during the first weeks post-transplantation. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and pharmacological variables, including tacrolimus whole blood concentrations obtained from therapeutic drug monitoring and data from dense-sampling pharmacokinetic profiles, were recorded in 26 paediatric patients with biliary atresia who underwent liver transplantation between 2016 and 2021. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed with NONMEM v7.4. RESULTS: Disposition of tacrolimus was best characterized by a 2-compartment model with clearance achieving half of the maximum elimination capacity (CLMAX  = 4.1 L/h) at 4.6 days post-transplantation (T50 ). Compared to sedated patients, nonsedated status showed an increased first-order absorption rate constant (1.1 vs. 0.1 h-1 ) and a 24% reduction in bioavailability (FNS ) at 14 days post-transplant. The model was able to explain the oral absorption pattern in nonsedated patients as the result of gut bioavailability (0.9) and hepatic extraction ratio, with the latter being responsible for first-pass effects. Estimates of interindividual variability remained moderate (25.9% for the gut bioavailability) to high (79.8% for the apparent volume of distribution of the central compartment, and 101% for T50 ). CONCLUSION: A population pharmacokinetic model of sublingually administered tacrolimus in paediatric patients was developed to characterize different absorption mechanisms. Once the model is externally validated, the effect of post-transplant time on clearance and the sedation status may be considered in routine dosing management.

Mechanistic modelling of enzyme-restoration effects of new recombinant liver-targeted proteins in acute intermittent porphyria.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Acute intermittent porphyria (AIP) is a rare disease caused by a genetic mutation in the hepatic activity of the porphobilinogen-deaminase. We aimed to develop a mechanistic model of the enzymatic restoration effects of a novel therapy based on the administration of different formulations of recombinant human-PBGD (rhPBGD) linked to the ApoAI lipoprotein. This fusion protein circulates in blood, incorporating into HDL and penetrating hepatocytes. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: Single i.v. dose of different formulations of rhPBGD linked to ApoAI were administered to AIP mice in which a porphyric attack was triggered by i.p. phenobarbital. Data consist on 24 h urine excreted amounts of heme precursors, 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA), PBG and total porphyrins that were analysed using non-linear mixed-effects analysis. KEY RESULTS: The mechanistic model successfully characterized over time the amounts excreted in urine of the three heme precursors for different formulations of rhPBGD and unravelled several mechanisms in the heme pathway, such as the regulation in ALA synthesis by heme. Treatment with rhPBGD formulations restored PBGD activity, increasing up to 51 times the value of the rate of tPOR formation estimated from baseline. Model-based simulations showed that several formulation prototypes provided efficient protective effects when administered up to 1 week prior to the occurrence of the AIP attack. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: The model developed had excellent performance over a range of doses and formulation type. This mechanistic model warrants use beyond ApoAI-conjugates and represents a useful tool towards more efficient drug treatments of other enzymopenias as well as for acute intermittent porphyria.

Relevance of primary lesion location, tumour heterogeneity and genetic mutation demonstrated through tumour growth inhibition and overall survival modelling in metastatic colorectal cancer.

AIMS: The aims of this work were to build a semi-mechanistic tumour growth inhibition (TGI) model for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients receiving either cetuximab + chemotherapy or chemotherapy alone and to identify early predictors of overall survival (OS). METHODS: A total of 1716 patients from 4 mCRC clinical studies were included in the analysis. The TGI model was built with 8973 tumour size measurements where the probability of drop-out was also included and modelled as a time-to-event variable using parametric survival models, as it was the case in the OS analysis. The effects of patient- and tumour-related covariates on model parameters were explored. RESULTS: Chemotherapy and cetuximab effects were included in an additive form in the TGI model. Development of resistance was found to be faster for chemotherapy (drug effect halved at wk 8) compared to cetuximab (drug effect halved at wk 12). KRAS wild-type status and presenting a right-sided primary lesion were related to a 3.5-fold increase in cetuximab drug effect and a 4.7× larger cetuximab resistance, respectively. The early appearance of a new lesion (HR = 4.14), a large tumour size at baseline (HR = 1.62) and tumour heterogeneity (HR = 1.36) were the main predictors of OS. CONCLUSIONS: Semi-mechanistic TGI and OS models have been developed in a large population of mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy in combination or not with cetuximab. Tumour-related predictors, including a machine learning derived-index of tumour heterogeneity, were linked to changes in drug effect, resistance to treatment or OS, contributing to the understanding of the variability in clinical response.

Semi-Mechanistic Model for the Antitumor Response of a Combination Cocktail of Immuno-Modulators in Non-Inflamed (Cold) Tumors.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors, administered as single agents, have demonstrated clinical efficacy. However, when treating cold tumors, different combination strategies are needed. This work aims to develop a semi-mechanistic model describing the antitumor efficacy of immunotherapy combinations in cold tumors. Tumor size of mice treated with TC-1/A9 non-inflamed tumors and the drug effects of an antigen, a toll-like receptor-3 agonist (PIC), and an immune checkpoint inhibitor (anti-programmed cell death 1 antibody) were modeled using Monolix and following a middle-out strategy. Tumor growth was best characterized by an exponential model with an estimated initial tumor size of 19.5 mm3 and a doubling time of 3.6 days. In the treatment groups, contrary to the lack of response observed in monotherapy, combinations including the antigen were able to induce an antitumor response. The final model successfully captured the 23% increase in the probability of cure from bi-therapy to triple-therapy. Moreover, our work supports that CD8+ T lymphocytes and resistance mechanisms are strongly related to the clinical outcome. The activation of antigen-presenting cells might be needed to achieve an antitumor response in reduced immunogenic tumors when combined with other immunotherapies. These models can be used as a platform to evaluate different immuno-oncology combinations in preclinical and clinical scenarios.

A quantitative systems pharmacology model for acute viral hepatitis B.

Hepatitis B liver infection is caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV) and represents a major global disease problem when it becomes chronic, as is the case for 80-90% of vertical or early life infections. However, in the vast majority (>95%) of adult exposures, the infected individuals are capable of mounting an effective immune response leading to infection resolution. A good understanding of HBV dynamics and the interaction between the virus and immune system during acute infection represents an essential step to characterize and understand the key biological processes involved in disease resolution, which may help to identify potential interventions to prevent chronic hepatitis B. In this work, a quantitative systems pharmacology model for acute hepatitis B characterizing viral dynamics and the main components of the innate, adaptive, and tolerant immune response has been successfully developed. To do so, information from multiple sources and across different organization levels has been integrated in a common mechanistic framework. The final model adequately describes the chronology and plausibility of an HBV-triggered immune response, as well as clinical data from acute patients reported in the literature. Given the holistic nature of the framework, the model can be used to illustrate the relevance of the different immune pathways and biological processes to ultimate response, observing the negligible contribution of the innate response and the key contribution of the cellular response on viral clearance. More specifically, moderate reductions of the proliferation of activated cytotoxic CD8+ lymphocytes or increased immunoregulatory effects can drive the system towards chronicity.

Mechanistic Modeling of a Novel Oncolytic Virus, V937, to Describe Viral Kinetic and Dynamic Processes Following Intratumoral and Intravenous Administration.

V937 is an investigational novel oncolytic non-genetically modified Kuykendall strain of Coxsackievirus A21 which is in clinical development for the treatment of advanced solid tumor malignancies. V937 infects and lyses tumor cells expressing the intercellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-I) receptor. We integrated in vitro and in vivo data from six different preclinical studies to build a mechanistic model that allowed a quantitative analysis of the biological processes of V937 viral kinetics and dynamics, viral distribution to tumor, and anti-tumor response elicited by V937 in human xenograft models in immunodeficient mice following intratumoral and intravenous administration. Estimates of viral infection and replication which were calculated from in vitro experiments were successfully used to describe the tumor response in vivo under various experimental conditions. Despite the predicted high clearance rate of V937 in systemic circulation (t1/2 = 4.3 min), high viral replication was observed in immunodeficient mice which resulted in tumor shrinkage with both intratumoral and intravenous administration. The described framework represents a step towards the quantitative characterization of viral distribution, replication, and oncolytic effect of a novel oncolytic virus following intratumoral and intravenous administrations in the absence of an immune response. This model may further be expanded to integrate the role of the immune system on viral and tumor dynamics to support the clinical development of oncolytic viruses.

Paediatric population pharmacokinetic modelling to assess hydrocortisone replacement dosing regimens in young children.

CONTEXT: Accurate hydrocortisone dosing in children with adrenal insufficiency is important to avoid the risks of over and under treatment including iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome and adrenal crisis. OBJECTIVE: To establish a population pharmacokinetic model of hydrocortisone in children and use this to refine hydrocortisone replacement regimens. DESIGN AND METHODS: Pharmacokinetic study of hydrocortisone granules, available in 0.5, 1, 2 and 5 mg dose strengths, in 24 children with adrenal insufficiency aged 2 weeks to 6 years. Cortisol concentrations quantified by LC-MS/MS were used to refine an adult pharmacokinetic model to a paediatric population model which was then used to simulate seven different hydrocortisone treatment regimens. RESULTS: Pre-dose cortisol levels were undetectable in 54% of the 24 children. The developed pharmacokinetic model had good predictive performance. Simulations for the seven treatment regimens using either three- or four-times daily dosing showed treatment regimens delivered an AUC0-24h within the 90% reference range for healthy children except in neonates where two regimens had an AUC below the 5th percentile. Cortisol concentrations at individual time points in the 24 h were outside the 90% reference range for healthy individuals in 50%, 55-65% and 70-75% for children, infants and neonates, respectively, with low cortisol levels being most prevalent. CONCLUSIONS: Current paediatric hydrocortisone treatment regimens based on either three- or four-times daily administration replicate cortisol exposure based on AUC0-24h, but the majority of cortisol levels are above or below physiological cortisol levels with low levels very common before the next dose.

Machine Learning Analysis of Individual Tumor Lesions in Four Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Clinical Studies: Linking Tumor Heterogeneity to Overall Survival.

Total tumor size (TS) metrics used in TS models in oncology do not consider tumor heterogeneity, which could help to better predict drug efficacy. We analyzed individual target lesions (iTLs) of patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma (mCRC) to determine differences in TS dynamics by using the ClassIfication Clustering of Individual Lesions (CICIL) methodology. Results from subgroup analyses comparing genetic mutations and TS metrics were assessed and applied to survival analyses. Data from four mCRC clinical studies were analyzed (1781 patients, 6369 iTLs). CICIL was used to assess differences in lesion TS dynamics within a tissue (intra-class) or across different tissues (inter-class). First, lesions were automatically classified based on their location. Cross-correlation coefficients (CCs) determined if each pair of lesions followed similar or opposite dynamics. Finally, CCs were grouped by using the K-means clustering method. Heterogeneity in tumor dynamics was lower in the intra-class analysis than in the inter-class analysis for patients receiving cetuximab. More tumor heterogeneity was found in KRAS mutated patients compared to KRAS wild-type (KRASwt) patients and when using sum of longest diameters versus sum of products of diameters. Tumor heterogeneity quantified as the median patient's CC was found to be a predictor of overall survival (OS) (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.08-1.92), especially in KRASwt patients. Intra- and inter-tumor tissue heterogeneities were assessed with CICIL. Derived metrics of heterogeneity were found to be a predictor of OS time. Considering differences between lesions' TS dynamics could improve oncology models in favor of a better prediction of OS.

Disease pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling in acute intermittent porphyria to support the development of mRNA-based therapies.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Acute intermittent porphyria (AIP) results from haplo-insufficiency of the porphobilinogen deaminase (PBGD) gene encoding the third enzyme in the haem biosynthesis pathway. As liver is the main organ of pathology for AIP, emerging therapies that restore enzyme hepatic levels are appealing. The objective of this work was to develop a mechanistic-based computational framework to describe the effects of novel PBGD mRNA therapy on the accumulation of neurotoxic haem precursors in small and large animal models. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: Liver PBGD activity data and/or 24-hr urinary haem precursors were obtained from genetic AIP mice and wild-type mice, rats, rabbits, and macaques. To mimic acute attacks, porphyrogenic drugs were administered over one or multiple challenges, and animals were used as controls or treated with different PBGD mRNA products. Available experimental data were sequentially used to build and validate a semi-mechanistic mathematical model using non-linear mixed-effects approach. KEY RESULTS: The developed framework accounts for the different biological processes involved (i.e., mRNA sequence, release from lipid nanoparticle and degradation, mRNA translation, increased PBGD activity in liver, and haem precursor metabolism) in a simplified mechanistic fashion. The model, validated using external data, shows robustness in the extrapolation of PBGD activity data in rat, rabbit, and non-human primate species. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: This quantitative framework provides a valuable tool to compare PBGD mRNA drug products during early preclinical stages, optimize the amount of experimental data required, and project results to humans, thus supporting drug development and clinical dose and dosing regimen selection.

Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Evaluation of Hydrocortisone Therapy in Pediatric Patients with Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) require lifelong replacement therapy with glucocorticoids. Optimizing hydrocortisone therapy is challenging, since there are no established cortisol concentration targets other than the cortisol circadian rhythm profile. 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP) concentrations are elevated in these patients and commonly used to monitor therapy. This study aimed to characterize the pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) of cortisol using 17-OHP as a biomarker in pediatric patients with CAH and to assess different hydrocortisone dosing regimens. METHODS: Cortisol and 17-OHP concentrations from 30 CAH patients (7-17 years of age) receiving standard hydrocortisone replacement therapy (5-20 mg) twice (n = 17) or 3 times (n = 13) daily were used to develop a PK/PD model. Sequentially, simulated cortisol concentrations for clinically relevant 3- and 4-times daily dosing regimens were compared with cortisol and 17-OHP target ranges and to concentrations in healthy children. RESULTS: Cortisol concentration-time profiles were accurately described by a 2-compartment model with first-order absorption and expected high bioavailability (82.6%). A time-delayed model with cortisol-mediated inhibition of 17-OHP synthesis accurately described 17-OHP concentrations. The cortisol concentration inhibiting 50% of 17-OHP synthesis was 48.6 nmol/L. A 4-times-daily dosing better attained the target ranges and mimicked the cortisol concentrations throughout the 24-hour period than 3-times-daily. CONCLUSIONS: A PK/PD model following hydrocortisone administration has been established. An improved dosing regimen of 38% at 06:00, 22% at 12:00, 17% at 18:00, and 22% at 24:00 of the daily hydrocortisone dose was suggested. The 4-times-daily dosing regimen was superior, avoiding subtherapeutic cortisol concentrations and better resembling the circadian rhythm of cortisol.

Model-Informed Dose Selection for Xentuzumab, a Dual Insulin-Like Growth Factor-I/II-Neutralizing Antibody.

Over the past decade, the insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-signaling pathway has gained substantial interest as potential therapeutic target in oncology. Xentuzumab, a humanized IgG1 monoclonal antibody, binds to IGF-I and IGF-II thereby inhibiting the downstream signaling essential for survival and tumor growth. This pathway is further regulated by circulating IGF binding proteins (IGFBPs). In this work, a mechanistic model characterizing the dynamics and interactions of IGFs, IGFBPs, and Xentuzumab has been developed to guide dose selection. Therefore, in vitro and in vivo literature information was combined with temporal IGF-I, IGF-II, and IGFBP-3 total plasma concentrations from two phase I studies. Based on the established quantitative framework, the time-course of free IGFs as ultimate drug targets not measured in clinics was predicted. Finally, a dose of 1000 mg/week-predicted to reduce free IGF-I and free IGF-II at steady-state by at least 90% and 64%, respectively-was suggested for phase II.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model for the Key Interleukins Involved in Crohn's Disease.

Crohn's disease (CD) is a complex inflammatory bowel disease whose pathogenesis appears to involve several immunologic defects causing functional impairment of the gut. Its complexity and the reported loss of effectiveness over time of standard of care together with the increase in its worldwide incidence require the application of techniques aiming to find new therapeutic strategies. Currently, systems pharmacology modeling has been gaining importance as it integrates the available knowledge of the system into a single computational model. In this work, the following workflow for robust application of systems pharmacology modeling was followed: 1) scope definition; 2) species selection and circulating plasma levels based on a search in the literature; 3) representation of model topology and parametrization of the interactions, after literature data extraction and curation, and the implementation of ordinary differential equations in SimBiology (MATLAB version R2018b); and 4) model curation and evaluation by visual comparison of simulated interleukin (IL) concentrations with the reported levels in plasma, and sensitivity analysis performed to confirm model robustness and identify the most influential parameters. Finally, 5) exposure to two dose levels of recombinant human IL10 was evaluated by simulation and comparison with reported clinical study results. In summary, we present a quantitative systems pharmacology model for the main ILs involved in CD developed using a standardized methodology and supported by a comprehensive repository summarizing the most relevant literature in the field. However, it has to be taken into account that external validation is still pending as available clinical data were primarily used for model training. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Crohn's disease (CD) is a complex heterogeneous inflammatory bowel disorder. Systems pharmacology modeling offers a great opportunity for integration of the available knowledge on the disease using a computational framework. As a result of this work, a comprehensive repository along with a quantitative systems pharmacology model for the main interleukins involved in CD is provided. This model is useful for the in silico evaluation of biomarkers and potential therapeutic targets and can be adapted to address research gaps regarding CD.

Immune network for viral hepatitis B: Topological representation.

The liver is a well-known immunotolerogenic environment, which provides the adequate setting for liver infectious pathogens persistence such as the hepatitis B virus (HBV). Consequently, HBV infection can derive in the development of chronic disease in a proportion of the patients. If this situation persists in time, chronic hepatitis B (CHB) would end in cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and eventually, the death of the patient. It is thought that this immunotolerogenic environment is the result of complex interactions between different elements of the immune system and the viral biology. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to unravel the mechanisms implied in the development of CHB and to design a tool able to help in the study of adequate therapies. Firstly, a conceptual framework with the main components of the immune system and viral dynamics was constructed providing an overall insight on the pathways and interactions implied in this disease. Secondly, a review of the literature was performed in a modular fashion: (i) viral dynamics, (ii) innate immune response, (iii) humoral and (iv) cellular adaptive immune responses and (v) tolerogenic aspects. Finally, the information collected was integrated into a single topological representation that could serve as the plan for the systems pharmacology model architecture. This representation can be considered as the previous unavoidable step to the construction of a quantitative model that could assist in biomarker and target identification, drug design and development, dosing optimization and disease progression analysis.

The circadian rhythm of corticosteroid-binding globulin has little impact on cortisol exposure after hydrocortisone dosing.

CONTEXT: Optimization of hydrocortisone replacement therapy is important to prevent under- and over dosing. Hydrocortisone pharmacokinetics is complex as circulating cortisol is protein bound mainly to corticosteroid-binding globulin (CBG) that has a circadian rhythm. OBJECTIVE: A detailed analysis of the CBG circadian rhythm and its impact on cortisol exposure after hydrocortisone administration. DESIGN AND METHODS: CBG was measured over 24 hours in 14 healthy individuals and, employing a modelling and simulation approach using a semi-mechanistic hydrocortisone pharmacokinetic model, we evaluated the impact on cortisol exposure (area under concentration-time curve and maximum concentration of total cortisol) of hydrocortisone administration at different clock times and of the changing CBG concentrations. RESULTS: The circadian rhythm of CBG was well described with two cosine terms added to the baseline of CBG: baseline CBG was 21.8 µg/mL and interindividual variability 11.9%; the amplitude for the 24 and 12 hours cosine functions were relatively small (24 hours: 5.53%, 12 hours: 2.87%) and highest and lowest CBG were measured at 18:00 and 02:00, respectively. In simulations, the lowest cortisol exposure was observed after administration of hydrocortisone at 23:00-02:00, whereas the highest was observed at 15:00-18:00. The differences between the highest and lowest exposure were minor (≤12.2%), also regarding the free cortisol concentration and free fraction (≤11.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Corticosteroid-binding globulin has a circadian rhythm but the difference in cortisol exposure is ≤12.2% between times of highest and lowest CBG concentrations; therefore, hydrocortisone dose adjustment based on time of dosing to adjust for the CBG concentrations is unlikely to be of clinical benefit.

Computational disease model of phenobarbital-induced acute attacks in an acute intermittent porphyria mouse model.

INTRODUCTION: Acute intermittent porphyria (AIP) is characterized by hepatic over-production of the heme precursors when aminolevulinic acid (ALA)-synthase 1 is induced by endogenous or environmental factors. The aim of this study was to develop a semi-mechanistic computational model to characterize urine accumulation of heme precursors during acute attacks based on experimental pharmacodynamics data and support the development of new therapeutic strategies. METHODS: Male AIP mice received recurrent phenobarbital challenge starting on days 1, 9, 16 and 30. 24-h urine excretion of ALA, porphobilinogen (PBG) and porphyrins from challenges D1, D9 and D30 constituted the training data set to build the mechanistic model using the population approach. In a second study, porphyrin and porphyrin precursor excretion from challenge D16 were used as a validation data set. RESULTS: The computational model presented the following features: (i) urinary excretion of ALA, PBG and porphyrins was governed by unmeasured circulating heme precursor amounts, (ii) the circulating amounts of ALA and PBG were the precursors of circulating amounts of PBG and porphyrins, respectively, and (iii) the phenobarbital effect linearly increased the synthesis of circulating ALA and PBG levels. The model displayed good parameter precision (coefficient of variation below 32% in all parameters), and adequately described the experimental data. Finally, a theoretical hemin effect was implemented to illustrate the applicability of the model to dosage optimization in drug therapies. CONCLUSIONS: A semi-mechanistic disease model was successfully developed to describe the temporal evolution of urinary heme precursor excretion during recurrent biochemical-induced acute attacks in AIP mice. This model represents the first computational approach to explore and optimize current and new therapies.