Lactate, Base Excess, and the Pediatric Index of Mortality: Exploratory Study of an International, Multicenter Dataset.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between ICU admission blood lactate, base excess, and ICU mortality and to explore the effect of incorporating blood lactate into the Pediatric Index of Mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study based on data prospectively collected on every PICU admission submitted to the U.K. Pediatric Intensive Care Audit Network and to the Australia and New Zealand Pediatric Intensive Care Registry. SETTING: Thirty-three PICUs in the United Kingdom/Republic of Ireland and nine PICUs and 20 general ICUs in Australia and New Zealand. PATIENTS: All ICU admissions between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2015. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: One hundred twenty-three thousand two hundred fifty-two admissions were recorded in both datasets; 81,576 (66.2%) in the United Kingdom/Republic of Ireland and 41,676 (33.8%) in Australia and New Zealand. Of these 75,070 (61%) had a base excess recorded, 63,316 (51%) had a lactate recorded, and 60,876 (49%) had both base excess and lactate recorded. Median lactate value was 1.5 mmol/L (interquartile range, 1-2.4 mmol/L) (United Kingdom/Republic of Ireland: 1.5 [1-2.5]; Australia and New Zealand: 1.4 [1-2.3]). Children with a lactate recorded had a higher illness severity, were more likely to be invasively ventilated, admitted after cardiac surgery, and had a higher mortality rate, compared with admissions with no lactate recorded (p < 0.001). The relationship between lactate and mortality was stronger (odds ratio, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.31-1.34) than between absolute base excess and mortality (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.12-1.14). Addition of lactate to the Pediatric Index of Mortality score led to a small improvement in performance over addition of absolute base excess, whereas adding both lactate and absolute base excess achieved the best performance. CONCLUSIONS: At PICU admission, blood lactate is more strongly associated with ICU mortality than absolute base excess. Adding lactate into the Pediatric Index of Mortality model may result in a small improvement in performance. Any improvement in Pediatric Index of Mortality performance must be balanced against the added burden of data capture when considering potential incorporation into the Pediatric Index of Mortality model.

Estimating the current and future prevalence of life-limiting conditions in children in England.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies showed increasing number of children with a life-limiting or life-threatening condition who may benefit from input from pediatric palliative care services. AIM: To estimate the current prevalence of children with a life-limiting condition and to model future prevalence of this population. DESIGN: Observational study using national inpatient hospital data. A population-based approach utilizing ethnic specific population projections was used to estimate future prevalence. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: All children aged 0-19 years with a life-limiting condition diagnostic code recorded in Hospital Episodes Statistics data in England from 2000/01 to 2017/18. RESULTS: Data on 4,543,386 hospital episodes for 359,634 individuals were included. The prevalence of children with a life-limiting condition rose from 26.7 per 10,000 (95%CI 26.5-27.0) in 2001/02 to 66.4 per 10,000 (95% CI: 66.0-66.8) in 2017/18. Using a more restricted definition of a life-limiting condition reduced the prevalence from 66.4 to 61.1 per 10,000 (95%CI 60.7-61.5) in 2017/18. Highest prevalence was in the under 1-year age group at 226.5 per 10,000 and children with a congenital abnormality had the highest prevalence (27.2 per 10,000 (95%CI: 26.9-27.5)).The prevalence was highest among the most deprived group and in children of Pakistani origin.Predicted future prevalence of life-limiting conditions ranged from 67.0 (95%CI 67.7-66.3) to 84.22 (95%CI 78.66-90.17) per 10,000 by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of children with a life-limiting or life-threatening condition in England has risen over the last 17 years and is predicted to increase. Future data collections must include the data required to assess the complex health and social care needs of these children.

GPs' role in caring for children and young people with life-limiting conditions: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: GPs are rarely actively involved in healthcare provision for children and young people (CYP) with life-limiting conditions (LLCs). This raises problems when these children develop minor illness or require management of other chronic diseases. AIM: To investigate the association between GP attendance patterns and hospital urgent and emergency care use. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort study using a primary care data source (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in England. The cohort numbered 19 888. METHOD: CYP aged 0-25 years with an LLC were identified using Read codes (primary care) or International Classification of Diseases 10 th Revision (ICD-10) codes (secondary care). Emergency inpatient admissions and accident and emergency (A&E) attendances were separately analysed using multivariable, two-level random intercept negative binomial models with key variables of consistency and regularity of GP attendances. RESULTS: Face-to-face GP surgery consultations reduced, from a mean of 7.12 per person year in 2000 to 4.43 in 2015. Those consulting the GP less regularly had 15% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10% to 20%) more emergency admissions and 5% more A&E visits (95% CI = 1% to 10%) than those with more regular consultations. CYP who had greater consistency of GP seen had 10% (95% CI = 6% to 14%) fewer A&E attendances but no significant difference in emergency inpatient admissions than those with lower consistency. CONCLUSION: There is an association between GP attendance patterns and use of urgent secondary care for CYP with LLCs, with less regular GP attendance associated with higher urgent secondary healthcare use. This is an important area for further investigation and warrants the attention of policymakers and GPs, as the number of CYP with LLCs living in the community rises.

Prospective paediatric intensive care registry in Latvia: one year outcomes.

BACKGROUND: In Latvia, there is a single eight-bed paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) where all critically ill children are admitted. A recent retrospective audit of the outcomes of paediatric critical care in this unit revealed a high number of unplanned extubations and excess crude mortality. In 2017, our centre joined the UK and Ireland based Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) as a pilot project to investigate the feasibility of developing a paediatric critical care registry in Latvia and in the Baltic states. METHODS: Riga Stradins University Ethics Committee approved the study. Anonymized data on all patients admitted to our unit from 1 June, 2017 to 31 May 2018 were prospectively entered onto the PICANet database. RESULTS: A total of 774 PICU admissions were analysed; 45% of admissions were elective. The median age was 59 months (IQR: 14-149). The highest admission rate was on Wednesdays representing the flow of elective surgical patients. The median length of stay was 0.95 days (IQR: 0.79-1.98). Twenty-five percent required respiratory support. The expected number of deaths estimated using the Paediatric Index of Mortality 3 (PIM 3) 15.16; 15 patients (1.94%) died resulting in Standartized Mortality Ratio (SMR) of 0.99 (95% CI 0.57-1.60). The emergency readmission rate within 48 hours after PICU discharge was 0.9%. There were 1.8 unplanned extubations per 100 invasive ventilation days. Other paediatric intensive care audit networks reported similar adjusted mortality rates but lower rates of unplanned extubations. Thirty days after PICU discharge, 653 (84.36%) patients were alive and outside hospital, 98 (12.66%) were inpatients, six (0.78%) had died, two (0.26%) were lost to the follow-up. We observed a marked peak of infant emergency respiratory admissions in February. CONCLUSIONS: This project explored the possibility of prospective paediatric critical care audit in Latvia by joining an established international network. This allowed direct comparison of outcomes between the countries. Excess mortality was not observed during one-year data collection period, however a high rate of unplanned extubations was revealed. The results allowed a better planning of elective patient flow by spreading elective cases over the week to avoid "rush hours".

Ethnic-specific mortality of infants undergoing congenital heart surgery in England and Wales.

PURPOSE: To investigate ethnic differences in mortality for infants with congenital heart defects (CHDs) undergoing cardiac surgery or interventional catheterisation. DESIGN: Observational study of survival to age 1 year using linked records from routine national paediatric cardiac surgery and intensive care audits. Mortality risk was investigated using multivariable Poisson models with multiple imputation. Predictors included sex, ethnicity, preterm birth, deprivation, comorbidities, prenatal diagnosis, age and weight at surgery, preprocedure deterioration and cardiac diagnosis. SETTING: All paediatric cardiac surgery centres in England and Wales. PATIENTS: 5350 infants with CHDs born from 2006 to 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Survival at age 1 year. RESULTS: Mortality was 83.9 (95% CI 76.3 to 92.1) per 1000 infants, with variation by ethnic group. Compared with those of white ethnicity, infants in British Asian (Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi) and 'all other' (Chinese, mixed and other) categories experienced significantly higher mortality by age 1 year (relative risk [RR] 1.52[95% CI 1.19 to 1.95]; 1.62[95% CI 1.20 to 2.20], respectively), specifically during index hospital admission (RR 1.55 [95% CI 1.07 to 2.26]; 1.64 [95% CI 1.05 to 2.57], respectively). Further predictors of mortality included non-cardiac comorbidities, prenatal diagnosis, older age at surgery, preprocedure deterioration and cardiac diagnosis. British Asian infants had higher mortality risk during elective hospital readmission (RR 1.86 [95% CI 1.02 to 3.39]). CONCLUSIONS: Infants of British Asian and 'all other' non-white ethnicity experienced higher postoperative mortality risk, which was only partly explained by socioeconomic deprivation and access to care. Further investigation of case-mix and timing of risk may provide important insights into potential mechanisms underlying ethnic disparities.

Trends and cyclical variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in 26 European centres in the 25 year period 1989-2013: a multicentre prospective registration study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years. METHODS: Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989-2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends. RESULTS: Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004-2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given.

Patterns of Use of Heated Humidified High-Flow Nasal Cannula Therapy in PICUs in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.

OBJECTIVES: To 1) describe patterns of use of high-flow nasal cannula therapy, 2) examine differences between patients started on high-flow nasal cannula and those started on noninvasive ventilation, and 3) explore whether patients who failed high-flow nasal cannula therapy were different from those who did not. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively by the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network. SETTING: All PICUs in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland (n = 34). PATIENTS: Admissions to study PICUs (2015-2016) receiving any form of respiratory support at any time during PICU stay. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Eligible admissions were classified into nine groups based on the combination of the first-line and second-line respiratory support modes. Uni- and multivariate analyses were performed to test the association between PICU and patient characteristics and two outcomes: 1) use of high-flow nasal cannula versus noninvasive ventilation as first-line mode and 2) high-flow nasal cannula failure, requiring escalation to noninvasive ventilation and/or invasive ventilation. We analyzed data from 26,423 admissions; high-flow nasal cannula was used in 5,951 (22.5%) at some point during the PICU stay. High-flow nasal cannula was used for first-line support in 2,080 (7.9%) and postextubation support in 978 admissions (4.5% of patients extubated after first-line invasive ventilation). High-flow nasal cannula failure occurred in 559 of 2,080 admissions (26.9%) when used for first-line support. Uni- and multivariate analyses showed that PICU characteristics as well as patient age, primary diagnostic group, and admission type had a significant influence on the choice of first-line mode (high-flow nasal cannula or noninvasive ventilation). Younger age, unplanned admission, and higher admission severity of illness were independent predictors of high-flow nasal cannula failure. CONCLUSIONS: The use of high-flow nasal cannula is common in PICUs in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland. Variation in the choice of first-line respiratory support mode (high-flow nasal cannula or noninvasive ventilation) between PICUs reflects the need for clinical trial evidence to guide future practice.

Development of two socioeconomic indices for Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: Health and socioeconomic status (SES) are linked in studies worldwide. Measures of SES exist for many countries, however not for Saudi Arabia (SA). We describe two indices of area-based SES for SA. METHODS: Routine census data has been used to construct two indices of SES at the geographically-delimited administrative region of Governorates in SA (n = 118). The data used included indicators of educational status, employment status, car and material ownership. A continuous measure of SES was constructed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and a categorical measure of SES using latent class analysis (LCA). Both indices were mapped by Governorates. RESULTS: The EFA identified three factors: The first explained 51.58% of the common variance within the interrelated factors, the second 15.14%, and the third 14.26%. These proportions were used in the formulation of the standard index. The scores were fixed to range from 100 for the affluent Governorate and 0 for the deprived. The LCA found a 4 class model as the best model fit. Class 1 was termed "affluent" and included 11.01% of Governorates, class 2 "upper middle class" (44.91%), class 3 "lower middle class" (33.05%) and class 4 "deprived" (11.01%). The populated urbanised Governorates were found to be the most affluent whereas the smaller rural Governorates were the most deprived. CONCLUSION: This is the first description of measures of SES in SA at a geographical level. Two measures have been successfully constructed and mapped. The maps show similar patterns suggesting validity. Both indices support the common perception of SES in SA.

Impact of the introduction of a universal childhood influenza vaccination programme on influenza-related admissions to paediatric intensive care units in England.

INTRODUCTION: A universal childhood influenza vaccination programme was introduced in the UK in September 2013. We examine the impact of the gradual introduction of this programme on influenza-related paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission rates in England. METHODS: We extracted data on all influenza-related admissions to PICUs in England in resident children aged 0-15 years old between October 2003 and March 2017 from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) database. We estimated influenza-associated PICU admission rates per 100 000 children by age group, sex and winter season (October to March), and used Poisson regression models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) in the winter seasons since the introduction of universal childhood vaccination compared with the two winters before the introduction of the programme (2011-2013). RESULTS: We identified 929 influenza-related PICU admissions among 873 children. 48.3% of admissions were among children aged less than 2 years old. The influenza-associated PICU admission rate was 1.32 per 100 000 children (95% CI 1.23 to 1.40). We identified a significant increase in influenza PICU admissions in the winters following the introduction of the universal childhood vaccination programme compared with the winters of 2010/2011-2012/2013 among children aged <5 years old: IRR 1.58 (1.05, 2.37) in children <1 year, 2.71 (1.43, 5.17) in 1 year-olds and 1.98 (1.18, 3.31) in children 2-4 years old. No significant difference was found among children aged 5-15 years. CONCLUSION: The universal childhood influenza vaccination has not yet reduced the influenza-associated burden on PICUs in England during its early phase of introduction. Monitoring of influenza PICU admission rates needs to continue in England to assess the long-term impact of universal paediatric influenza vaccination. Linkage between PICANet and national infection surveillance databases would better enable such monitoring.

Characteristics and mortality risk of children with life-threatening influenza infection admitted to paediatric intensive care in England 2003-2015.

BACKGROUND: Information is lacking about the severity of complications in children with influenza admitted to paediatric intensive care units (PICU) in the UK. In this study, we report risk factors for mortality, invasive ventilation and use of vasoactive drugs for children admitted to PICU with influenza. METHODS: We evaluated all admissions to PICUs in England for resident children with a recorded influenza diagnosis between September 2003 and March 2015. We used the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) database linked to hospital admission records to identify influenza cases, and high-risk comorbidities among admitted children. We used mixed effects logistic regression models to determine risk factors for mortality, use of invasive ventilation and vasoactive drugs. RESULTS: We identified 1961 influenza-related PICU admissions in 1778 children. Children with high-risk conditions accounted for 1540 admissions (78.5%). The odds of mortality were significantly higher for girls than boys (adjusted odds ratio 1.91; 95% confidence interval 1.31, 2.79), children from Asian/Asian British (2.70; 1.74, 4.20) or other minority ethnic groups (3.95; 1.65, 9.42) compared to white British children, and significantly increased before and during the A(H1N1)pdm 2009 pandemic compared to the post-pandemic period. Children required invasive ventilation in 1588 admissions (81.0%), and received vasoactive drugs in 586 admissions (29.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Nearly four fifths of influenza-related PICU admissions occurred in children with high-risk conditions, highlighting the burden of severe influenza in this vulnerable population Further research is required to explain sex and ethnic group differences in PICU mortality among children admitted with influenza.

Renal Replacement Therapy in the Critically Ill Child.

OBJECTIVES: Although renal replacement therapy is widely used in critically ill children, there have been few comprehensive population-based studies of its use. This article describes renal replacement therapy use, and associated outcomes, in critically ill children across the United Kingdom in the largest cohort study of this patient group. DESIGN: A retrospective observational study using prospectively collected data. SETTING: Data from the Pediatric Intensive Care Audit Network database which collects data on all children admitted to U.K. PICUs. PATIENTS: Children (< 16 yr) in PICU who received renal replacement therapy between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2012, were identified. INTERVENTIONS: Individual-level data including age, underlying diagnosis, modality (peritoneal dialysis and continuous extracorporeal techniques [continuous renal replacement therapy]), duration of renal replacement therapy, PICU length of stay, and survival were extracted. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Three-thousand eight-hundred twenty-five of 129,809 PICU admissions (2.9%) received renal replacement therapy in 30 of 33 centers. Volumes of renal replacement therapy varied considerably from 0% to 8.6% of PICU admissions per unit, but volume was not associated with patient survival. Overall survival to PICU discharge (73.8%) was higher than previous reports. Mortality risk was related to age, with lower risk in older children compared with neonates (odds ratio, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.5-0.8) although mortality did not increase over the age of 1 year; mode of renal replacement therapy, with lower risk in peritoneal dialysis than continuous renal replacement therapy methodologies (odds ratio, 0.7; 0.5-0.9); duration of renal replacement therapy (odds ratio, 1.02/d; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04); and primary diagnosis, with the lowest survival in liver disease patients (53.9%). CONCLUSIONS: This study describes current renal replacement therapy use across the United Kingdom and associated outcomes. We describe a number of factors associated with outcome, including age, underlying diagnosis, and renal replacement therapy modality which will need to be factored into future trial design.

Early deaths from ischaemic heart disease in childhood-onset type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: The risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) death in early type 1 diabetes onset was assessed using death certification data. METHODS: The Yorkshire Register of type 1 Diabetes in Children and Young People was linked to clinically validated death certification data for those diagnosed under 15 years. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated using the England and Wales population and IHD death rates between 1978 and 2014 by 5-year age group and sex. RESULTS: The cohort included 4382 individuals (83 097 person years). Of 156 deaths, nine were classed as IHD deaths before clinical validation. After clinical validation, 14 IHD deaths were classified, with an SMR of 13.8 (95% CI 8.2 to 23.3) and median age at death of 35.1 years (range 21.9â€"47.9 years). CONCLUSIONS: There is an early emergence of death from IHD in early onset type 1 diabetes. Underascertainment of IHD deaths was present without clinical validation of death certification.

Comparison of ethnic group classification using naming analysis and routinely collected data: application to cancer incidence trends in children and young people.

OBJECTIVE: Inpatient Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) ethnicity data are available but not always collected and data quality can be unreliable. This may have implications when assessing outcomes by ethnicity. An alternative method for assigning ethnicity is using naming algorithms. We investigate if the association between ethnicity and cancer incidence varied dependent on how ethnic group was assigned. DESIGN: Population-based cancer registry cohort study. SETTING: Yorkshire, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Cancer registrations from 1998 to 2009 in children and young people (0-29 years) from a specialist cancer register in Yorkshire, UK (n=3998) were linked to inpatient HES data to obtain recorded ethnicity. Patients' names, recorded in the cancer register, were matched to an ethnic group using the naming algorithm software Onomap. Each source of ethnicity was categorised as white, South Asian (SA) or Other, and a further two indicators were defined based on the combined ethnicities of HES and Onomap, one prioritising HES results, the other prioritising Onomap. OUTCOMES: Incidence rate ratios (IRR) between ethnic groups were compared using Poisson regression for all cancers combined, leukaemia, lymphoma and central nervous system (CNS) tumours. RESULTS: Depending on the indicator used, 7.1%-8.6% of the study population were classified as SA. For all cancers combined there were no statistically significant differences between white and SA groups using any indicator; however, for lymphomas significant differences were only evident using one of the 'Combined' indicators (IRR=1.36 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.71)), and for CNS tumours incidence was lower using three of the four indicators. For the other ethnic group the IRR for all cancers combined ranged from 0.78 (0.65 to 0.94) to 1.41 (1.23 to 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Using different methods of assigning ethnicity can result in different estimates of ethnic variation in cancer incidence. Combining ethnicity from multiple sources results in a more complete estimate of ethnicity than the use of one single source.

Outcomes for Children Receiving Noninvasive Ventilation as the First-Line Mode of Mechanical Ventilation at Intensive Care Admission: A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare outcomes of children receiving noninvasive ventilation with those receiving invasive ventilation as first-line mode of mechanical ventilation following unplanned intensive care admission. DESIGN: Propensity score-matched cohort study analyzing data prospectively collected by the Pediatric Intensive Care Audit Network over 8 years (2007-2014). SETTING: Thirty-one PICUs in the United Kingdom and Ireland; twenty-one of whom submitted Pediatric Critical Care Minimum Dataset data for the entire study period. PATIENTS: Children consecutively admitted to study PICUs. Planned admissions following surgery, unplanned admissions from other hospitals, those on chronic ventilation, and those who did not receive mechanical ventilation on the day of PICU admission were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: Use of noninvasive ventilation, rather than invasive ventilation, as the first-line mode of mechanical ventilation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: PICU mortality, length of ventilation, length of PICU stay, and ventilator-free days at day 28. During the study period, there were 151,128 PICU admissions. A total of 15,144 admissions (10%) were eligible for analysis once predefined exclusion criteria were applied: 4,804 (31.7%) received "noninvasive ventilation first," whereas 10,221 (67.5%) received "invasive ventilation first"; 119 (0.8%) admissions could not be classified. Admitting PICU site explained 6.5% of the variation in first-line mechanical ventilation group (95% CI, 2.0-19.0%). In propensity score-matched analyses, receiving noninvasive ventilation first was associated with a significant reduction in mortality by 3.1% (95% CI, 1.7-4.6%), length of ventilation by 1.6 days (95% CI, 1.0-2.3), and length of PICU stay by 2.1 days (95% CI, 1.3-3.0), as well as an increase in ventilator-free days at day 28 by 3.7 days (95% CI, 3.1-4.3). CONCLUSIONS: Use of noninvasive ventilation as first-line mode of mechanical ventilation in critically ill children admitted to PICU in an unplanned fashion may be associated with significant clinical benefits. Further high-quality evidence regarding optimal patient selection and timing of initiation of noninvasive ventilation could lead to less variability in clinical care between institutions and improved patient outcomes.

Ethnic and socioeconomic variation in incidence of congenital heart defects.

INTRODUCTION: Ethnic differences in the birth prevalence of congenital heart defects (CHDs) have been reported; however, studies of the contemporary UK population are lacking. We investigated ethnic variations in incidence of serious CHDs requiring cardiac intervention before 1 year of age. METHODS: All infants who had a cardiac intervention in England and Wales between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2010 were identified in the national congenital heart disease surgical audit and matched with paediatric intensive care admission records to create linked individual child records. Agreement in reporting of ethnic group by each audit was evaluated. For infants born 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2009, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for CHDs by ethnicity and investigated age at intervention, antenatal diagnosis and area deprivation. RESULTS: We identified 5350 infants (2940 (55.0%) boys). Overall CHD incidence was significantly higher in Asian and Black ethnic groups compared with the White reference population (incidence rate ratios (IRR) (95% CIs): Asian 1.5 (1.4 to 1.7); Black 1.4 (1.3 to 1.6)); incidence of specific CHDs varied by ethnicity. No significant differences in age at intervention or antenatal diagnosis rates were identified but affected children from non-White ethnic groups were more likely to be living in deprived areas than White children. CONCLUSIONS: Significant ethnic variations exist in the incidence of CHDs, including for specific defects with high infant mortality. It is essential that healthcare provision mitigates ethnic disparity, including through timely identification of CHDs at screening, supporting parental choice and effective interventions. Future research should explore the factors underlying ethnic variation and impact on longer-term outcomes.

How many children and young people with life-limiting conditions are clinically unstable? A national data linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical stage (stable, unstable, deteriorating or dying) for children and young people (CYP) aged 0-25 years in Scotland with life-limiting conditions (LLCs). DESIGN: National cohort of CYP with LLCs using linked routinely collected healthcare data. SETTING: Scotland. PATIENTS: 20 436 CYP identified as having LLCs and resident in Scotland between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2014. MAIN OUTCOME: Clinical stage based on emergency inpatient and intensive care unit admissions and date of death. RESULTS: Over 2200 CYP with LLCs in Scotland were unstable, deteriorating or dying in each year. Compared with 1-year-olds to 5-year-olds, children under 1 year of age had the highest risk of instability (OR 6.4, 95% CI 5.7 to 7.1); all older age groups had lower risk. Girls were more likely to be unstable than boys (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.24). CYP of South Asian (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.01), Black (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.41) and Other (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.74) ethnicity were more likely to experience instability than White CYP. Deprivation was not a significant predictor of instability. Compared with congenital abnormalities, CYP with most other primary diagnoses had a higher risk of instability; only CYP with a primary perinatal diagnosis had significantly lower risk (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: The large number of CYP with LLCs who are unstable, deteriorating or dying may benefit from input from specialist paediatric palliative care. The age group under 1 and CYP of South Asian, Black and Other ethnicities should be priority groups.

Improving case ascertainment of congenital anomalies: findings from a prospective birth cohort with detailed primary care record linkage.

BACKGROUND: Congenital anomalies (CAs) are a common cause of infant death and disability. We linked children from a large birth cohort to a routine primary care database to detect CA diagnoses from birth to age 5 years. There could be evidence of underreporting by CA registries as they estimate that only 2% of CA registrations occur after age 1 year. METHODS: CA cases were identified by linking children from a prospective birth cohort to primary care records. CAs were classified according to the European Surveillance of CA guidelines. We calculated rates of CAs by using a bodily system group for children aged 0 to <5 years, together with risk ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs for maternal risk factors. RESULTS: Routinely collected primary care data increased the ascertainment of children with CAs from 432.9 per 10 000 live births under 1 year to 620.6 per 10 000 live births under 5 years. Consanguinity was a risk factor for Pakistani mothers (multivariable RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.46 to 2.83), and maternal age >34 years was a risk factor for mothers of other ethnicities (multivariable RR 2.19, 95% CI 1.36 to 3.54). Education was associated with a lower risk (multivariable RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.98). CONCLUSION: 98% of UK CA registrations relate to diagnoses made in the first year of life. Our data suggest that this leads to incomplete case ascertainment with a further 30% identified after age 1 year in our study. Risk factors for CAs identified up to age 1 year persist up to 5 years. National registries should consider using routine data linkage to provide more complete case ascertainment after infancy.

Incidence and Burden of Wheezing Disorders, Eczema, and Rhinitis in Children: findings from the Born in Bradford Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Bradford city has high infant mortality and there is a major health concern in the community due to environmental pollution. The aim of the study was to investigate the incidence and burden of wheezing disorders, eczema, and rhinitis in children aged 3-7 years . METHODS: It is a prospective cohort study; the participants were 13 734 children from the Born in Bradford cohort. RESULTS: There were a total of 22.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 21.4, 22.8%), 52.4% (95% CI 51.5%, 53.2%), and 19.3% (95% CI 18.6, 19.9%) incidence cases of wheezing disorders, eczema, and rhinitis respectively. A total of 37% (95% CI 36.2%, 37.8%), 19.5% (95% CI 18.9%, 20.2%,) and 5.9% (95% CI 5.5%, 6.3%) of the children were affected by only one, two, and three diseases respectively. Boys to girls incidence rate ratios for wheezing disorders, eczema, and rhinitis was 1.41 (95% CI 1.31, 1.51), 1.02 (95% CI 0.97, 1.07), and 1.18 (95% CI 1.09, 1.28) respectively. The respective incidence rate ratios of Pakistani to White British were 0.94 (95% CI 0.87, 1.02), 1.31 (95% CI 1.24, 1.39), and 2.03 (95% CI 1.83, 2.25) respectively. CONCLUSION: This study shows that the burden of wheezing disorders, eczema, and rhinitis in this cohort is higher than previously reported in earlier studies. In addition, it indicates that while boys are more likely to suffer from wheezing disorders, rhinitis, and multiple diseases than girls, Pakistani children are more likely to suffer from eczema, rhinitis, and multiple diseases than White British children.