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BACKGROUND: The study of psychological well-being and related resilient outcomes is of increasing focus in cardiovascular research. Despite the critical importance of psychological well-being and related resilient outcomes in promoting optimal cardiac health, there have been very few psychological interventions directed towards children with heart disease. This paper describes the development and theoretical framework of the WE BEAT Wellbeing Education Program, a group-based psychoeducation and coping skills training intervention designed to improve psychological well-being and resilience in adolescents with paediatric heart disease. METHODS: Program development was informed by patient and family needs and input gathered via large, international survey methods as well as qualitative investigation, a theoretical framework, and related resilience intervention research. RESULTS: An overview of the WE BEAT intervention components and structure of the programme is provided. CONCLUSIONS: The WE BEAT Wellbeing Education Program was developed as one of the first resiliency-focused interventions in paediatric heart disease with an overall objective to foster positive psychological well-being and resilient outcomes through a health promotion and prevention lens in an accessible format while providing access to safe, peer-to-peer community building. Feasibility pilot results are forthcoming. Future directions include mobile app-based delivery and larger-scale efficacy and implementation trials.
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BACKGROUND: Mortality after congenital heart surgery is an important metric across benchmarking, quality, and reporting initiatives. All rely on estimates from prior years, and how well these reflect current outcomes is unclear. METHODS: Index operations from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Database (2014-2019) were included. Adjusted operative mortality in "past" 4-year and 1-year intervals vs the most recent year ("present") was evaluated using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression with results presented as odds ratios and 95% credible intervals (CrI). RESULTS: Among 115,699 operations (106 hospitals), overall present observed mortality was 2.5%. Regression to the mean was evident, and individual hospital's present vs past adjusted mortality were only weakly correlated (-0.11 vs past 1-year data, 0.22 vs past 4-year data). A significant relationship was found between past and present mortality only for the group of hospitals in the highest mortality quartile, most prominent for past 4-year data (adjusted odds ratio vs lowest mortality quartile, 2.04; 95% CrI, 1.44-2.80). The proportion of present hospital mortality variation explained by past mortality quartile was 52% (95% CrI, 20%-90%) using past 4-year data and only 27% (95% CrI, 92%-83%) using past 1-year data. Overall 66% of hospitals changed mortality quartiles from past to present (30% by ≥2 quartiles). CONCLUSIONS: Past mortality relates to present primarily for groups of hospitals at the extremes, with past 4-year data more informative than past 1-year data. For individual hospitals, past may differ from present, regression to the mean is common, and many change quartiles. Past mortality should be used thoughtfully and not as the sole factor informing present decision making.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Bases de Datos Factuales , Cardiopatías Congénitas , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Sociedades Médicas , Humanos , Cardiopatías Congénitas/cirugía , Cardiopatías Congénitas/mortalidad , Mortalidad Hospitalaria/tendencias , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/mortalidad , Femenino , Masculino , Lactante , Cirugía Torácica , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Recién Nacido , Estudios Retrospectivos , PreescolarRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The National Pediatric Cardiology Quality Improvement Collaborative (NPC-QIC) lacks a rigorous enrollment audit process, unlike other collaborative networks. Most centers require individual families to consent to participate. It is unknown whether there is variation across centers or biases in enrollment. METHODS: We used the Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium (PC4) registry to assess enrollment rates in NPC-QIC for those centers participating in both registries using indirect identifiers (date of birth, date of admission, gender, and center) to match patient records. All infants born 1/1/2018-12/31/2020 and admitted 30 days of life were eligible. In PC4, all infants with a fundamental diagnosis of hypoplastic left heart or variant or who underwent a surgical or hybrid Norwood or variant were eligible. Standard descriptive statistics were used to describe the cohort and center match rates were plotted on a funnel chart. RESULTS: Of 898 eligible NPC-QIC patients, 841 were linked to 1,114 eligible PC4 patients (match rate 75.5%) in 32 centers. Match rates were lower in patients of Hispanic/Latino ethnicity (66.1%, p = 0.005), and those with any specified chromosomal abnormality (57.4%, p = 0.002), noncardiac abnormality (67.8%, p = 0.005), or any specified syndrome (66.5%, p = 0.001). Match rates were lower for patients who transferred to another hospital or died prior to discharge. Match rates varied from 0 to 100% across centers. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to match patients between the NPC-QIC and PC4 registries. Variation in match rates suggests opportunities for improvement in NPC-QIC patient enrollment.
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Cardiología , Síndrome del Corazón Izquierdo Hipoplásico , Procedimientos de Norwood , Lactante , Humanos , Niño , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , Síndrome del Corazón Izquierdo Hipoplásico/cirugía , Sistema de RegistrosRESUMEN
Care and outcomes for the more than 40,000 patients undergoing pediatric and congenital heart surgery in the United States annually are known to vary widely. While consensus recommendations have been published across numerous ï¬elds as one mechanism to promote a high level of care delivery across centers, it has been more than two decades since the last pediatric heart surgery recommendations were published in the United States. More recent guidance is lacking, and collaborative efforts involving the many disciplines engaged in caring for these children have not been undertaken to date. The present initiative brings together professional societies spanning numerous care domains and congenital cardiac surgeons, pediatric cardiologists, nursing, and other healthcare professionals from diverse programs around the country to develop consensus recommendations for United States centers. The focus of this initial work is on pediatric heart surgery, and it is recommended that future efforts focus in detail on the adult congenital population. We describe the background, rationale, and methodology related to this collaborative effort, and recommendations put forth for Essential Care Centers (essential services necessary for any program), and Comprehensive Care Centers (services to optimize comprehensive and high-complexity care), encompassing structure, process, and outcome metrics across 14 domains.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Cardiopatías Congénitas , Adulto , Humanos , Niño , Estados Unidos , Cardiopatías Congénitas/cirugía , Cardiopatías Congénitas/etiología , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/métodos , Atención a la SaludRESUMEN
Care and outcomes for the more than 40,000 patients undergoing pediatric and congenital heart surgery in the United States annually are known to vary widely. While consensus recommendations have been published across numerous fields as one mechanism to promote a high level of care delivery across centers, it has been more than two decades since the last pediatric heart surgery recommendations were published in the United States. More recent guidance is lacking, and collaborative efforts involving the many disciplines engaged in caring for these children have not been undertaken to date. The present initiative brings together professional societies spanning numerous care domains and congenital cardiac surgeons, pediatric cardiologists, nursing, and other healthcare professionals from diverse programs around the country to develop consensus recommendations for United States centers. The focus of this initial work is on pediatric heart surgery, and it is recommended that future efforts focus in detail on the adult congenital population. We describe the background, rationale, and methodology related to this collaborative effort, and recommendations put forth for Essential Care Centers (essential services necessary for any program), and Comprehensive Care Centers (services to optimize comprehensive and high-complexity care), encompassing structure, process, and outcome metrics across 14 domains.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Cardiopatías Congénitas , Adulto , Humanos , Niño , Estados Unidos , Cardiopatías Congénitas/cirugía , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/efectos adversos , Atención a la Salud , ConsensoRESUMEN
Care and outcomes for the more than 40,000 patients undergoing pediatric and congenital heart surgery in the United States annually are known to vary widely. While consensus recommendations have been published across numerous fields as one mechanism to promote a high level of care delivery across centers, it has been more than two decades since the last pediatric heart surgery recommendations were published in the United States. More recent guidance is lacking, and collaborative efforts involving the many disciplines engaged in caring for these children have not been undertaken to date. The present initiative brings together professional societies spanning numerous care domains and congenital cardiac surgeons, pediatric cardiologists, nursing, and other healthcare professionals from diverse programs around the country to develop consensus recommendations for United States centers. The focus of this initial work is on pediatric heart surgery, and it is recommended that future efforts focus in detail on the adult congenital population. We describe the background, rationale, and methodology related to this collaborative effort, and recommendations put forth for Essential Care Centers (essential services necessary for any program), and Comprehensive Care Centers (services to optimize comprehensive and high-complexity care), encompassing structure, process, and outcome metrics across 14 domains.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Cirujanos , Adulto , Humanos , Niño , CorazónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Studies examining the volume-outcome relationship in congenital heart surgery (CHS) are more than a decade old. Since then, mortality has declined, and case-mix adjustment has evolved. We determined the current relationship between hospital CHS volume and outcomes. METHODS: Patients aged ≤18 years undergoing index operations in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons-Congenital Heart Surgery Database (2017-2020) were included. Associations between annual hospital volume and case-mix-adjusted operative mortality, major complications, failure to rescue (FTR), and postoperative length of stay (PLOS) were assessed using Bayesian hierarchical models, overall, by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (STAT) category, and for the Norwood procedure. RESULTS: Across 101 centers (76,714 index operations), median annual volume was 144 operations/y. Operative mortality was 2.7%. Lower-volume hospitals had higher mortality, with an apparent transition zone at â¼190 operations/y (95% credible interval [CrI], 115-450 operations/y), below which a sustained uptick in the estimated odds of death occurred. Odds of death compared with a 450 operations/y reference were 50 operations/y (odds ratio [OR], 1.84; 95% CrI, 1.41-2.37), 100 operations/y (OR, 1.37; 95% CrI, 1.08-1.71), 200 operations/y (OR, 0.92; 95% CrI, 0.1-1.18), 300 operations/y (OR, 0.89; 95% CrI, 0.76-1.04). The volume-outcome effect was more apparent for STAT 4 to 5 than STAT 1 to 3 operations. In the overall cohort, PLOS and complications were similar across hospital volumes, whereas FTR rates were higher at lower-volume hospitals. Lower-volume hospitals had worse outcomes after the Norwood procedure, most notably mortality and FTR. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital volume is associated with mortality and FTR after CHS. The relationship is strongest for high-risk operations. These data can inform ongoing initiatives to improve CHS care.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Cardiopatías Congénitas , Humanos , Cardiopatías Congénitas/cirugía , Teorema de Bayes , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Hospitales de Bajo Volumen , Bases de Datos Factuales , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that diverse care teams optimize patient outcomes. Describing the current representation of women and minorities has been a critical step in improving diversity across several fields. OBJECTIVES: To address the lack of data specific to pediatric cardiology, the authors conducted a national survey. METHODS: U.S. academic pediatric cardiology programs with fellowship training programs were surveyed. Division directors were invited (July 2021 to September 2021) to complete an e-survey of program composition. Underrepresented minorities in medicine (URMM) were characterized using standard definitions. Descriptive analyses at the hospital, faculty, and fellow level were performed. RESULTS: Altogether, 52 of 61 programs (85%) completed the survey, representing 1,570 total faculty and 438 fellows, with a wide range in program size (7-109 faculty, 1-32 fellows). Although women comprise approximately 60% of faculty in pediatrics overall, they made up 55% of fellows and 45% of faculty in pediatric cardiology. Representation of women in leadership roles was notably less, including 39% of clinical subspecialty directors, 25% of endowed chairs, and 16% of division directors. URMM comprise approximately 35% of the U.S. population; however, they made up only 14% of pediatric cardiology fellows and 10% of faculty, with very few in leadership roles. CONCLUSIONS: These national data suggest a "leaky pipeline" for women in pediatric cardiology and very limited presence of URRM overall. Our findings can inform efforts to elucidate underlying mechanisms for persistent disparity and reduce barriers to improving diversity in the field.
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Cardiología , Educación de Postgrado en Medicina , Humanos , Femenino , Niño , Estados Unidos , Docentes Médicos , Becas , Grupos MinoritariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Hospitals are increasingly likely to implement clinical informatics tools to improve quality of care, necessitating rigorous approaches to evaluate effectiveness. We leveraged a multi-institutional data repository and applied causal inference methods to assess implementation of a commercial data visualization software in our pediatric cardiac intensive care unit. METHODS: Natural experiment in the University of Michigan (UM) Cardiac Intensive Care Unit pre and postimplementation of data visualization software analyzed within the Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium clinical registry; we identified N=21 control hospitals that contributed contemporaneous registry data during the study period. We used the platform during multiple daily rounds to visualize clinical data trends. We evaluated outcomes-case-mix adjusted postoperative mortality, cardiac arrest and unplanned readmission rates, and postoperative length of stay-most likely impacted by this change. There were no quality improvement initiatives focused specifically on these outcomes nor any organizational changes at UM in either era. We performed a difference-in-differences analysis to compare changes in UM outcomes to those at control hospitals across the pre versus postimplementation eras. RESULTS: We compared 1436 pre versus 779 postimplementation admissions at UM to 19 854 (pre) versus 14 160 (post) at controls. Admission characteristics were similar between eras. Postimplementation at UM we observed relative reductions in cardiac arrests among medical admissions, unplanned readmissions, and postoperative length of stay by -14%, -41%, and -18%, respectively. The difference-in-differences estimate for each outcome was statistically significant (P<0.05), suggesting the difference in outcomes at UM pre versus postimplementation is statistically significantly different from control hospitals during the same time. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical registries provide opportunities to thoroughly evaluate implementation of new informatics tools at single institutions. Borrowing strength from multi-institutional data and drawing ideas from causal inference, our analysis solidified greater belief in the effectiveness of this software across our institution.
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Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Informática Médica , Humanos , Niño , Readmisión del Paciente , Causalidad , Cuidados Críticos , Tiempo de InternaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Congenital Heart Surgery Database was queried to document variation of patient characteristics, procedure types, and programmatic case-mix. METHODS: All index cardiac operations in patients less than 18 years of age in the STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database (July 2016 to June 2020) were eligible for inclusion except patients weighing ≤2.5 kg undergoing isolated patent ductus arteriosus closure. At the hospital level, we describe variations in patient and procedural characteristics known from previous analyses to be associated with outcomes. We also report variations across hospitals of programmatic case-mix. RESULTS: Data were analyzed from 117 sites (90 322 total operations, 87 296 total index cardiac operations eligible for STAT [STS-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery] 2020 Mortality Score). The median annual total index cardiac operations eligible for STAT 2020 Mortality Score per hospital was 157 (interquartile range [IQR], 94-276). Wide variability was documented in total annual index cardiac operations eligible for STAT 2020 Mortality Score per hospital (ratio 90th/10th percentile = 9.01), operations in neonates weighing <2.5 kg (ratio 90th/10th percentile = 4.09), operations in patients with noncardiac anatomic abnormalities (ratio 90th/10th percentile = 3.46), and operations in patients with preoperative mechanical ventilation (ratio 90th/10th percentile = 3.97). At the hospital level, the median percentage of all index cardiac operations in STAT 2020 Mortality Category 5 was 3.7% (IQR, 1.7%-4.9%), the median percentage of all index cardiac operations in STAT 2020 Mortality Category 4 or 5 was 24.4% (IQR, 19.0%-28.4%), the median hospital-specific mean STAT Mortality Category was 2.39 (IQR, 2.20-2.47), and the median hospital-specific mean STAT Mortality Score was 0.86 (IQR, 0.73-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial variation of patient characteristics, procedure types, and case-mix exists across pediatric and congenital cardiac surgical programs. Knowledge about programmatic case-mix augments data about indirectly standardized programmatic observed-to-expected (O/E) mortality. Indirectly standardized O/E ratios do not provide a complete description of a given pediatric and congenital cardiac surgical program. The indirectly standardized programmatic O/E ratios associated with a given program apply only to its specific case-mix of patients and may represent a quite different case-mix than that of another program.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Cardiopatías Congénitas , Cirujanos , Cirugía Torácica , Recién Nacido , Niño , Humanos , Cardiopatías Congénitas/cirugía , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/métodos , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Bases de Datos Factuales , HospitalesRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The optimal timing for neonatal cardiac surgery is a potentially modifiable factor that may affect outcomes. We studied the relationship between age at surgery (AAS) and outcomes across multiple hospitals, focusing on neonatal operations where timing appears is not emergency. METHODS: We studied neonates ≥37 weeks' gestation and ≥2.5 kg admitted to a treating hospital on or before day of life 2 undergoing selected index cardiac operations. The impact of AAS on outcomes was evaluated across the entire cohort and a standard risk subgroup (ie, free of preoperative mechanical ventilation, mechanical circulatory support, or other organ failure). Outcomes included mortality, major morbidity (ie, cardiac arrest, mechanical circulatory support, unplanned cardiac reintervention, or neurologic complication), and postoperative cardiac intensive care unit and hospital length of stay. Post hoc analyses focused on operations undertaken between day of life 2 and 7. RESULTS: We studied 2536 neonates from 47 hospitals. AAS from day of life 2 through 7 was not associated with risk adjusted mortality or major morbidity among the entire cohort and the standard risk subgroup. Older AAS, although associated with modest increases in postoperative cardiac intensive care unit and hospital length of stay in the entire cohort, was not associated with hospital length of stay in the standard risk subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: Among select nonemergency neonatal cardiac operations, AAS between day of life 2 and 7 was not found to be associated with risk adjusted mortality or major morbidity. Although delays in surgical timing may modestly increase preoperative resource use, studies of AAS and outcomes not evident at the time of discharge are needed.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Cardiopatías Congénitas , Recién Nacido , Humanos , Niño , Cardiopatías Congénitas/cirugía , Tiempo de Internación , Hospitalización , Cuidados Críticos , Factores de Riesgo , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened a workshop in August 2021 to identify opportunities in pediatric and congenital cardiovascular research that would improve outcomes for individuals with congenital heart disease across the lifespan. A subsidiary goal was to provide feedback on and visions for the Pediatric Heart Network. This paper summarizes several key research opportunities identified in the areas of: data quality, access, and sharing; aligning cardiovascular research with patient priorities (eg, neurodevelopmental and psychological impacts); integrating research within clinical care and supporting implementation into practice; leveraging creative study designs; and proactively enriching diversity of investigators, participants, and perspectives throughout the research process.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Humanos , Niño , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/terapia , Corazón , Longevidad , Exactitud de los Datos , Proyectos de InvestigaciónRESUMEN
Importance: Preventing in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) likely represents an effective strategy to improve outcomes for critically ill patients, but feasibility of IHCA prevention remains unclear. Objective: To determine whether a low-technology cardiac arrest prevention (CAP) practice bundle decreases IHCA rate. Design, Setting, and Participants: Pediatric cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) teams from the Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium (PC4) formed a collaborative learning network to implement the CAP bundle consistent with the Institute for Healthcare Improvement framework; 15 hospitals implemented the bundle voluntarily. Risk-adjusted IHCA incidence rates were analyzed across 2 time periods, 12 months (baseline) and 18 months after CAP implementation (intervention) using difference-in-differences (DID) regression to compare 15 CAP and 16 control PC4 hospitals that chose not to participate in CAP but had IHCA rates tracked in the PC4 registry. Patients deemed at high risk for IHCA, based on a priori evidence-based criteria and empirical hospital-specific criteria, were selected to receive the CAP bundle. Data were collected from July 2018 to December 2019, and data were analyzed from March to August 2020. Interventions: CAP bundle included 5 elements developed to promote increased situational awareness and communication among bedside clinicians to recognize and mitigate deterioration in high-risk patients. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk-adjusted IHCA incidence rate across all CICU admissions (IHCA events divided by all admissions). Results: The bundle was activated in 2664 of 10â¯510 CAP hospital admissions (25.3%); admission characteristics were similar across study periods. There was a 30% relative reduction in risk-adjusted IHCA incidence rate at CAP hospitals (intervention period: 2.6%; 95% CI, 2.2-2.9; baseline: 3.7%; 95% CI, 3.1-4.0), but no change at control hospitals (intervention period: 2.7%; 95% CI, 2.3-2.9; baseline: 2.7%; 95% CI, 2.2-3.0). DID analysis confirmed significantly reduced odds of IHCA among all admissions at CAP hospitals compared with control hospitals during the intervention period vs baseline (odds ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.56-0.91; P = .01). DID odds ratios were 0.72 (95% CI, 0.53-0.98) for the surgical subgroup, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.48-1.14) for the medical subgroup, and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.50-1.03) for the high-risk admission subgroup at CAP hospitals after intervention. All-cause risk-adjusted mortality rate did not change after intervention. Conclusions and Relevance: Implementation of this CAP bundle led to significant IHCA reduction across multiple pediatric CICUs. Future studies may determine if this bundle can be effective in other critically ill populations.
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Enfermedad Crítica , Paro Cardíaco , Niño , Paro Cardíaco/epidemiología , Paro Cardíaco/prevención & control , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Hospitalización , Hospitales , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo PediátricoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Congenital Heart Surgery Database (CHSD) provides risk-adjusted operative mortality rates to approximately 120 North American congenital heart centers. Optimal case-mix adjustment methods for operative mortality risk prediction in this population remain unclear. METHODS: A panel created diagnosis-procedure combinations of encounters in the CHSD. Models for operative mortality using the new diagnosis-procedure categories, procedure-specific risk factors, and syndromes or abnormalities included in the CHSD were estimated using Bayesian additive regression trees and least absolute shrinkage and selector operator (lasso) models. Performance of the new models was compared with the current STS CHSD risk model. RESULTS: Of 98 825 operative encounters (69 063 training; 29 762 testing), 2818 (2.85%) STS-defined operative mortalities were observed. Differences in sensitivity, specificity, and true and false positive predicted values were negligible across models. Calibration for mortality predictions at the higher end of risk from the lasso and Bayesian additive regression trees models was better than predictions from the STS CHSD model, likely because of the new models' inclusion of diagnosis-palliative procedure variables affecting <1% of patients overall but accounting for 27% of mortalities. Model discrimination varied across models for high-risk procedures, hospital volume, and hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Overall performance of the new models did not differ meaningfully from the STS CHSD risk model. Adding procedure-specific risk factors and allowing diagnosis to modify predicted risk for palliative operations may augment model performance for very high-risk surgical procedures. Given the importance of risk adjustment in estimating hospital quality, a comparative assessment of surgical program quality evaluations using the different models is warranted.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Cardiopatías Congénitas , Cirugía Torácica , Teorema de Bayes , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/métodos , Niño , Bases de Datos Factuales , Cardiopatías Congénitas/cirugía , Humanos , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Sociedades MédicasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS-CHSD) provides observed-to-expected (O/E) operative mortality ratios to more than 100 congenital heart centers in North America. We compared the current approach for estimating O/E ratios to approaches incorporating information on diagnosis as moderators of procedures, other unused risk factors, and additional variation in confidence interval construction to characterize center performance. METHODS: Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) and lasso models linked operative mortality to diagnosis-procedure categories, procedure-specific risk factors, and syndromes/abnormalities. Bootstrapping accounted for variation in the STS-CHSD (STS bootstrap) and lasso CIs. We compared O/E estimates, interquartile range of CI widths, and concordance of center performance categorizations (worse-than-, as-, or better-than-expected mortality) of the new approaches to the STS-CHSD. RESULTS: In 110 surgical centers including 98,822 surgical operative encounters, there were 2818 (2.85%) operative mortalities (center range, 0.37%-10%). Compared with the STS-CHSD, BART- and lasso-estimated O/E ratios varied more and had narrower confidence intervals (interquartile range of confidence interval: STS-CHSD = 1.11, STS bootstrap = 0.98; lasso = 0.80; BART = 0.96). Concordance of performance categorization with the STS-CHSD ranged from 84% (lasso) to 91% (STS Bootstrap); more than 70% of discordant centers improved categories. Discordant centers had smaller volumes, fewer operative mortalities, and treated more patients with congenital lung abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: Relative to the STS-CHSD, up to 16% of hospitals changed performance categories, most improving performance. Given the significance of quality reports for congenital heart centers, inclusion of additional risk factors and unaddressed variation should be considered.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Cardiopatías Congénitas , Cirugía Torácica , Teorema de Bayes , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/métodos , Bases de Datos Factuales , Humanos , Evaluación de Resultado en la Atención de Salud , Sociedades MédicasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Cardiac intensivists frequently assess patient readiness to wean off mechanical ventilation with an extubation readiness trial despite it being no more effective than clinician judgement alone. We evaluated the utility of high-frequency physiologic data and machine learning for improving the prediction of extubation failure in children with cardiovascular disease. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of clinical registry data and streamed physiologic extubation readiness trial data from one paediatric cardiac ICU (12/2016-3/2018). We analysed patients' final extubation readiness trial. Machine learning methods (classification and regression tree, Boosting, Random Forest) were performed using clinical/demographic data, physiologic data, and both datasets. Extubation failure was defined as reintubation within 48 hrs. Classifier performance was assessed on prediction accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Of 178 episodes, 11.2% (N = 20) failed extubation. Using clinical/demographic data, our machine learning methods identified variables such as age, weight, height, and ventilation duration as being important in predicting extubation failure. Best classifier performance with this data was Boosting (prediction accuracy: 0.88; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.74). Using physiologic data, our machine learning methods found oxygen saturation extremes and descriptors of dynamic compliance, central venous pressure, and heart/respiratory rate to be of importance. The best classifier in this setting was Random Forest (prediction accuracy: 0.89; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.75). Combining both datasets produced classifiers highlighting the importance of physiologic variables in determining extubation failure, though predictive performance was not improved. CONCLUSION: Physiologic variables not routinely scrutinised during extubation readiness trials were identified as potential extubation failure predictors. Larger analyses are necessary to investigate whether these markers can improve clinical decision-making.