A regionally tailored epidemiological forecast and monitoring program to guide a healthcare system in the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, analytics and predictive models built on regional data provided timely, accurate monitoring of epidemiological behavior, informing critical planning and decision-making for health system leaders. At Atrium Health, a large, integrated healthcare system in the southeastern United States, a team of statisticians and physicians created a comprehensive forecast and monitoring program that leveraged an array of statistical methods. METHODS: The program utilized the following methodological approaches: (i) exploratory graphics, including time plots of epidemiological metrics with smoothers; (ii) infection prevalence forecasting using a Bayesian epidemiological model with time-varying infection rate; (iii) doubling and halving times computed using changepoints in local linear trend; (iv) death monitoring using combination forecasting with an ensemble of models; (v) effective reproduction number estimation with a Bayesian approach; (vi) COVID-19 patients hospital census monitored via time series models; and (vii) quantified forecast performance. RESULTS: A consolidated forecast and monitoring report was produced weekly and proved to be an effective, vital source of information and guidance as the healthcare system navigated the inherent uncertainty of the pandemic. Forecasts provided accurate and precise information that informed critical decisions on resource planning, bed capacity and staffing management, and infection prevention strategies. CONCLUSIONS: In this paper, we have presented the framework used in our epidemiological forecast and monitoring program at Atrium Health, as well as provided recommendations for implementation by other healthcare systems and institutions to facilitate use in future pandemics.

Beyond the surface: a color-inclusive guide to central line site assessment.

Significant gaps exist in representation of diverse populations in central-line assessment education and tools. We review some of these gaps and provide some real-world guidance on how to assess central line sites in patients of all skin tones.

Hospital return-to-work practices for healthcare providers infected with severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

A survey of academic medical-center hospital epidemiologists indicated substantial deviation from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance regarding healthcare providers (HCPs) recovering from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) returning to work. Many hospitals continue to operate under contingency status and have HCPs return to work earlier than recommended.

Evaluation of a health system's implementation of a monkeypox care model under the RE-AIM framework.

Objective: Emerging infectious diseases challenge healthcare systems to implement new models of care. We aim to evaluate the rapid implementation of a new care model for monkeypox in our health system. Design: This is a retrospective case series evaluation under the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework of implementation of a testing and care model for monkeypox in a large, integrated health system. Methods: Atrium Health implemented education of providers, testing protocols, and management of potential monkeypox cases using electronic health record (EHR) data capabilities, telehealth, and collaboration between multiple disciplines. The first 4 weeks of care model implementation were evaluated under the RE-AIM framework. Results: One hundred fifty-three patients were tested for monkeypox by 117 unique providers at urgent care, emergency departments, and infectious disease clinics in our healthcare system between 18 July 2022 and 14 August 2022. Fifty-eight monkeypox cases were identified, compared with 198 cases in the state during the time period, a disproportionate number compared with the health system service area, and 52 patients were assessed for need for tecovirimat treatment. The number of tests performed and providers sending tests increased during the study period. Conclusion: Implementation of a dedicated care model leveraging EHR data support, telehealth, and cross-disciplinary collaboration led to more effective identification and management of emerging infectious diseases and is important for public health. Plain Language Summary: Impact of care model implementation on monkeypox New infectious diseases challenge health systems to implement new care practices. Our health system responded to this challenge by implementing a care model for education, testing, and clinical care of monkeypox patients. We analyzed results from implementing the model. We were able to identify a disproportionate number of monkeypox cases compared with the rest of our state by using our model to educate medical providers, encourage testing, and ensure patients had access to best disease care. Implementation of care models for testing and management of new diseases will improve patient care and public health.

Mpox (Monkeypox) Infection During Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: An mpox (formerly "monkeypox") outbreak began in 2022, leading to infection in special populations, including pregnant individuals. CASE: We present a case of an individual who presented with a labial ulcer and subsequent papular rash at 31 weeks of gestation. She was diagnosed with mpox infection and was treated with tecovirimat. She had an uncomplicated induction of labor at 39 2/7 weeks of gestation and delivered a healthy neonate. The neonate had a positive immunoglobulin G test result for orthopoxvirus but did not have skin lesions or positive molecular test results suggestive of infection. CONCLUSION: Transplacental transmission of mpox is possible, but, in this case, the neonate did not have clinical findings suggestive of active or antenatal mpox infection. Treatment with tecovirimat in gestational cases of mpox may be beneficial.

Severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections occurring in healthcare workers after booster vaccination: A comparison of delta versus omicron variants.

In this study, we used genomic sequencing to identify variants of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in healthcare workers with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) after receiving a booster vaccination. We compared symptoms, comorbidities, exposure risks, and vaccine history between the variants. Postbooster COVID-19 cases increased as the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant predominated.

Global monkeypox case hospitalisation rates: A rapid systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Estimates of the case hospitalization rate and case fatality rate when hospital care is available for monkeypox (MPX) infections have not been well defined. This rapid systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the case hospitalisation rate and case fatality rate where hospital care is available. Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, the Lancet Preprints, and MedRxiv for studies published between Jan 1, 1950 and Aug 2, 2022. We included documents which contained both the number of cases and associated hospitalisations of MPX infections. From eligible studies we extracted the country, the year of the study, the study design type, the clade of MPX, the participant characteristics, transmission type, any treatments used, number of cases (including suspected, probable, or laboratory confirmed diagnosis), number of hospitalizations, hospitalized patient outcomes, and case definition. Case hospitalization rate (CHR) was defined as the proportion of cases that were admitted to hospital care while case fatality rate (CFR) was defined as the proportion of cases that died. CHR and CFR were analysed in a fully Bayesian meta-analytic framework using random effects models, including sub-group analysis with heterogeneity assessed using I2. Findings: Of the 259 unique documents identified, 19 studies were eligible for inclusion. Included studies represented 7553 reported cases among which there were 555 hospitalizations. Of the 7540 cases for which outcomes were available, there were 15 recorded deaths. The median age of cases was 35 years (interquartile range 28-38, n = 2010) and primarily male (7339/7489, 98%) in studies where age or sex were available. Combined CHR was estimated to be 14.1% (95% credible interval, 7.5-25.0, I2 97.4%), with a high degree of heterogeneity. Further analysis by outbreak period indicates CHRs of 49.8% (28.2-74.0, I2 81.4%), 21.7% (7.2-52.1, I2 57.7%), and 5.8% (3.2-9.4, I2 92.4%) during the pre-2017, 2017-2021, and 2022 outbreaks, respectively, again with high levels of heterogeneity. CFR was estimated to be 0.03% (0.0-0.44, I2 99.9%), with evidence of large heterogeneity between the studies. Interpretation: There is limited data for MPX hospitalization rates in countries where MPX has been traditionally non-endemic until the current outbreak. Due to substantial heterogeneity, caution is needed when interpreting these findings. Health care organizations should be cognizant of the potential increase in healthcare utilization. Rapid identification of infection and use of appropriate therapies such as antivirals play a role reducing the CHR and associated CFR. Funding: None.

Reducing the rates of household transmission: The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in healthcare workers with a known household exposure.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of COVID-19 vaccination oninfectionratesin healthcare workers(HCWs) with a householdexposure. METHODS: Retrospectivecohort study8410HCWs(400 fullyvaccinated, 1645partially vaccinated,6365 unvaccinated),employed by a large integrated healthcare system in the southeastern United States,tested for SARS-CoV-2between January 1 and February 26, 2021. RESULTS: Benefit of vaccination persisted even with household exposure, with unvaccinated HCWs being 3.7 to 7.7 times more likely to be infected than partially or fully vaccinated HCW with positive household contacts respectively (partial OR = 3.73, 95% CI 2.17 - 6.47; full OR = 7.67, CI 2.75 - 21.35). Whereas 89.4% of unvaccinated COVID-positive HCWs with known household exposures were symptomatic, 50% of fully vaccinated HCWs had symptoms, reducing risk of secondary spread from and between HCWs. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19vaccinationprovided protection against infection evenamongst healthcare workerswithclose household contact,and after adjusting for community prevalence.

At the vanguard: Leaders' perspectives on establishing healthcare system infection prevention programs.

Hospitals are increasingly consolidating into health systems. Some systems have appointed healthcare epidemiologists to lead system-level infection prevention programs. Ideal program infrastructure and support resources have not been described. We informally surveyed 7 healthcare epidemiologists with recent experience building and leading system-level infection prevention programs. Key facilitators and barriers for program structure and implementation are described.

Reaching consensus on a home infusion central line-associated bloodstream infection surveillance definition via a modified Delphi approach.

BACKGROUND: A consensus on a central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) surveillance definition in home infusion is needed to standardize measurement and benchmark CLABSI to provide data to drive improvement initiatives METHODS: Experts across fields including home infusion therapy, infectious diseases, and healthcare epidemiology convened to perform a 3-step modified Delphi approach to obtain input and achieve consensus on a candidate home infusion CLABSI definition. RESULTS: The numerator criterion was identified by participants as involving one of the 2 following: (1) recognized pathogen isolated from blood culture and pathogen is not related to infection at another site, or (2) one of the following signs or symptoms: fever of 38°C (100.4°F), chills, or hypotension (systolic blood pressure ≤90 mm Hg), and one of the 2 following: (A) common skin contaminant isolated from 2 blood cultures drawn on separate occasions and organism is not related to infection at another site, or (B) common skin contaminant isolated from blood culture from patient with intravascular access device and provider institutes appropriate antimicrobial therapy. The criteria for a denominator included days from the day of admission with a central venous catheter to day of removal of central venous catheter. In addition, 11 inclusion criteria and 4 exclusion criteria were included. DISCUSSION: Home infusion therapy and healthcare epidemiology experts developed candidate criteria for a home infusion CLABSI surveillance definition. CONCLUSIONS: Home care and home infusion agencies can use this definition to monitor their own CLABSI rates and implement preventative strategies.

Implementation of a Nurse-Driven Protocol for Catheter Removal to Decrease Catheter-Associated Urinary Tract Infection Rate in a Surgical Trauma ICU.

INTRODUCTION: Early removal of urinary catheters is an effective strategy for catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) prevention. We hypothesized that a nurse-directed catheter removal protocol would result in decreased catheter utilization and CAUTI rates in a surgical trauma intensive care unit (STICU). METHODS: We performed a retrospective, cohort study following implementation of a multimodal CAUTI prevention bundle in the STICU of a large tertiary care center. Data from a 19-month historical control were compared to data from a 15-month intervention period. Pre- and postintervention indwelling catheter utilization and CAUTI rates were compared. RESULTS: Catheter utilization decreased significantly with implementation of the nurse-driven protocol from 0.78 in the preintervention period to 0.70 in the postintervention period (P < .05). As a result of the bundle, the CAUTI rate declined significantly, from 5.1 to 2.0 infections per 1000 catheter-days in the pre- vs postimplementation period (Incident Rate Ratio [IRR]: 0.38, 95% confidence interval: 0.21-0.65). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a nurse-driven protocol for early urinary catheter removal as part of a multimodal CAUTI intervention strategy can result in measurable decreases in both catheter utilization and CAUTI rates.

Bugs and Drugs: Collaboration Between Infection Prevention and Antibiotic Stewardship.

Overall goals of antibiotic stewardship and infection prevention programs are to improve patient safety as it pertains to risk of infection or multidrug-resistant organism (MDRO) acquisition. Although the focus of day-to-day activities may differ, the themes of surveillance, education, clinician engagement, and multidisciplinary interactions are prevalent in both programs. Synergistic work between programs has yielded benefits in prevention of MDROs, surgical site infections, Clostridioides difficile infection, and reducing inappropriate testing and treatment for asymptomatic bacteriuria. Collaboration between programs can help maximize resources and minimize redundant work to keep issues related to bugs and drugs at bay.

Whole Genome Sequencing detects Inter-Facility Transmission of Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae.

OBJECTIVES: To identify transmission patterns of Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae infection during an outbreak at a large, tertiary care hospital and to detect whether the outbreak organisms spread to other facilities in the integrated healthcare network. METHODS: We analyzed 71 K. pneumoniae whole genome sequences collected from clinical specimens before, during and after the outbreak and reviewed corresponding patient medical records. Sequence and patient data were used to model probable transmissions and assess factors associated with the outbreak. RESULTS: We identified close genetic relationships among carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae isolates sampled during the study period. Transmission tree analysis combined with patient records uncovered extended periods of silent colonization in many study patients and transmission routes that were likely the result of asymptomatic patients transitioning between facilities. CONCLUSIONS: Detecting how and where Carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae infections spread is challenging in an environment of rising prevalence, asymptomatic carriage and mobility of patients. Whole genome sequencing improved the precision of investigating inter-facility transmissions. Our results emphasize that containment of Carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae infections requires coordinated efforts between healthcare networks and settings of care that acknowledge and mitigate transmission risk conferred by undetected carriage and by patient transfers between facilities.