Machine Learning for Short-Term Mortality in Acute Decompensation of Liver Cirrhosis: Better than MELD Score.

Prediction of short-term mortality in patients with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis could be improved. We aimed to develop and validate two machine learning (ML) models for predicting 28-day and 90-day mortality in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated liver cirrhosis. We trained two artificial neural network (ANN)-based ML models using a training sample of 165 out of 290 (56.9%) patients, and then tested their predictive performance against Model of End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) and MELD 3.0 scores using a different validation sample of 125 out of 290 (43.1%) patients. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting 28-day mortality for the ML model was 0.811 (95%CI: 0.714- 0.907; p < 0.001), while the AUC for the MELD-Na score was 0.577 (95%CI: 0.435-0.720; p = 0.226) and for MELD 3.0 was 0.600 (95%CI: 0.462-0.739; p = 0.117). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting 90-day mortality for the ML model was 0.839 (95%CI: 0.776- 0.884; p < 0.001), while the AUC for the MELD-Na score was 0.682 (95%CI: 0.575-0.790; p = 0.002) and for MELD 3.0 was 0.703 (95%CI: 0.590-0.816; p < 0.001). Our study demonstrates that ML-based models for predicting short-term mortality in patients with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis perform significantly better than MELD-Na and MELD 3.0 scores in a validation cohort.

Serum proteomic profiling of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease with and without clinically significant portal hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: Portal hypertension (PH) drives the progression of liver cirrhosis to decompensation and death. Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement is the standard of PH quantification, and HVPG≥10 mmHg defines clinically significant PH (CSPH). We performed proteomics-based serum profiling to search for a proteomic signature of CSPH in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients with histologically confirmed cACLD and results of HVPG measurements were prospectively included. Serum samples were pooled according to the presence/absence of CSPH and analysed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Gene set enrichment analysis was performed, followed by comprehensive literature review for proteins identified with the most striking difference between the groups. RESULTS: We included 48 patients (30 with, and 18 without CSPH). Protein CD44, involved in the inflammatory response, vascular endothelial growth factor C (VEGF-C) and lymphatic vessel endothelial hyaluronan receptor-1 (LYVE-1), both involved in lymphangiogenesis were found solely in the CSPH group. Although identified in both groups, proteins involved in neutrophil extracellular traps (NET) formation, as well as tenascin C, autotaxin and nephronectin which mediate vascular contractility and lymphangiogenesis were more abundant in CSPH. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: We propose that altered inflammatory response, including NET formation, vascular contractility and formation of new lymph vessels are key steps in PH development. Proteins such as CD44, VEGF-C, LYVE-1, tenascin C, Plasminogen activator inhibitor 1, Nephronectin, Bactericidal permeability-increasing protein, Autotaxin, Myeloperoxidase and a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs-like protein 4 might be considered for further validation as potential therapeutic targets and candidate biomarkers of CSPH in cACLD.

Incidence, Risk Factors and Mortality Associated with Major Bleeding Events in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients.

Thromboprophylaxis is a mainstay of treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, due to the high occurrence of thrombotic events. This increases the risk of bleeding. However, data on bleeding events and associated risk factors are scarce. Thus, we aimed to investigate the incidence, predictors and clinical outcomes associated with major bleeding in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We retrospectively evaluated a cohort of 4014 consecutively hospitalized COVID-19 patients treated in a tertiary-level institution in the period 3/2020-3/2021. Bleeding of any kind was documented in 322 (8%) and major bleeding in 129 (3.2%) patients. A total of 129 (40.1%) bleeding events were present at the time of hospital admission, and 193 (59.9%) occurred during hospitalization. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, intensive-care-unit treatment (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 6.55; p < 0.001), atrial fibrillation (aOR 2.55; p = 0.029), higher white-blood-cell count (WBC) (aOR 1.03; p = 0.021), lower hemoglobin (aOR 0.97; p = 0.002) and history of bleeding (aOR 17.39; p < 0.001) were recognized as mutually independent predictors of major bleeding. Major bleeding was significantly associated with increased in-hospital mortality compared to non-major-bleeding patients (59.7% vs. 34.8%, p < 0.001), especially if occurring during hospitalization. Median time from major bleeding to death was 5 days. Bleeding events are frequent in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, with a significant proportion of patients presenting at the time of hospital admission, and others almost universally exposed to anticoagulant and corticosteroid therapies. Major bleeding is associated with high mortality, especially if occurring during hospitalization. The recognition of patients at risk and implementation of timely interventions are of high clinical importance.

Porto-sinusoidal vascular disease: a new definition of an old clinical entity.

Porto-sinusoidal vascular disease (PSVD) is defined as a vascular liver disease characterized by the absence of cirrhosis and the presence of characteristic histological features, with or without the presence of portal hypertension (PH). Half of the patients with PSVD also have associated disease that may contribute to the development of PSVD. Patients usually remain asymptomatic until complications of PH arise. Variceal bleeding and portal vein thrombosis are major complications associated with PSVD. The treatment is focused on managing complications of PH, mainly through primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding and treatment of portal vein thrombosis. Currently, there is insufficient evidence to support the use of anticoagulants for thrombosis prevention in these patients. Despite the increase of recognition of PSVD, further research is needed to enable early disease diagnosis, establish optimal screening methods, and develop strategies to slow down disease progression.

Use of biochemical parameters for non-invasive screening of oesophageal varices in comparison to elastography-based approach in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

Introduction: Oesophageal varices are routinely diagnosed by esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD), and their bleeding has high mortality. We aimed to evaluate diagnostic performance of biochemical tests in comparison to elastography-based approaches, as non-invasive alternatives to EGD, for ruling-out high risk oesophageal varices (HRV). Material and methods: Retrospective analysis of patients (N = 861) who underwent liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE) in a single centre over 5-year period, with available results of EGD (within 3 months from LSM). Only patients with suspicion of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) defined by LSM ≥ 10 kPa were included comprising the final cohort of 73 subjects. Original and expanded Baveno VI criteria (B6C), controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), platelet count (PLT), aspartate aminotransferase to PLT ratio index (APRI), Fibrosis-4 index (FIB4), model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score were evaluated against the results of EGD that served as the reference method. Results: Analysed patients had median age 62 years, 59/73 (0.81) were males, 54/73 (0.74) had alcoholic/non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, and 21/73 (0.29) had HRV. In multivariate logistic regression analysis only LSM and PLT were independently associated with HRV. The best performing tests for ruling-out HRV (% of spared EGD; % of missed HRV) were respectively: LSM < 20 kPa (53.4%; 0%), B6C (38%; 0%), Expanded B6C (47.9%; 4.8%); PLT > 214x109/L (21.9%; 0%); FIB4 ≤ 1.8 (21.4%; 0%), APRI ≤ 0.34 (12.3%; 0%). CAP, MELD = 6 alone or combined with PLT > 150(x109/L) did not show acceptable performance. Conclusion: The best performing biochemical tests for ruling-out HRV in our cohort of patients were PLT and FIB-4, but they were still outperformed by elastography-based approaches.

Short-term outcomes of patients with chronic liver disease hospitalised with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) might have an aggravated course after acquisition of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). AIMS: To analyse the outcomes of patients with CLD who were hospitalised due to COVID-19. METHODS: The medical records of 4014 patients hospitalised because of COVID-19 in a regional referral hospital over a 12-month period were analysed. Patients with CLD were identified based on discharge diagnoses according to the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision. Patients were followed for 30 days from admission and their outcomes (intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation (MV) or death) were analysed. RESULTS: Of the 4014 patients, 110 (2.7%) had CLD and 49 (1.2%) had cirrhosis. The median age of CLD patients was 67.5 years, 79 (71.8%) were males, 224 (23.5%) were obese, 56 (50.9%) reported alcohol abuse, 24 (21.8%) had non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, 11 (10%) had viral hepatitis and 98 (89.1%) had pneumonia. The median length of hospitalisation was 12 days; 32 (29.1%) patients required ICU admission and 23 (20.9%) patients required MV, while 43 (39.1%) died. In univariate analysis, patients with cirrhosis (45% vs 73%, hazard ratio (HR) = 2.95; P < 0.001), but not those with non-cirrhotic CLD (74% vs 73%; P > 0.05), experienced worse 30-day survival when compared with age, sex and COVID-19 duration-matched cohorts. In a logistic regression analysis conducted on the overall and matched cohorts, liver cirrhosis, but not CLD, predicted inferior survival independently of age, comorbidities and severity of COVID-19, with a fourfold higher adjusted risk of 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Cirrhosis is independently associated with higher 30-day mortality of hospitalised patients with COVID-19.

FibroScan-AST Score Predicts 30-Day Mortality or Need for Mechanical Ventilation among Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Liver involvement in Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been recognised. We aimed to investigate the correlation of non-invasive surrogates of liver steatosis, fibrosis and inflammation using transient elastography (TE) and FibroScan-AST (FAST) score with (a) clinical severity and (b) 30-day composite outcome of mechanical ventilation (MV) or death among patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. METHOD: Patients with non-critical COVID-19 at admission were included. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) were assessed by TE. Clinical severity of COVID-19 was assessed by 4C Mortality Score (4CMS) and need for high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) oxygen supplementation. RESULTS: 217 patients were included (66.5% males, median age 65 years, 4.6% with history of chronic liver disease). Twenty-four (11.1%) patients met the 30-day composite outcome. Median LSM, CAP and FAST score were 5.2 kPa, 274 dB/m and 0.31, respectively, and neither was associated with clinical severity of COVID-19 at admission. In multivariate analysis FAST > 0.36 (OR 3.19, p = 0.036), 4CMS (OR 1.68, p = 0.002) and HFNC (OR 7.03, p = 0.001) were independent predictors of adverse composite outcome. CONCLUSION: Whereas LSM and CAP failed to show correlation with COVID-19 severity and outcomes, FAST score was an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality or need for MV.

Prevalence and Prognostic Impact of Deranged Liver Blood Tests in COVID-19: Experience from the Regional COVID-19 Center over the Cohort of 3812 Hospitalized Patients.

BACKGROUND: Derangement of liver blood tests (LBT) is frequent in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to evaluate (a) the prevalence of deranged LBT as well as their association with (b) clinical severity at admission and (c) 30-day outcomes among the hospitalized patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Consecutive patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in the regional referral center over the 12-month period were included. Clinical severity of COVID-19 at hospital admission and 30-day outcomes (need for intensive care, mechanical ventilation, or death) were analyzed. RESULTS: Derangement of LBT occurred in 2854/3812 (74.9%) of patients, most frequently due to elevation of AST (61.6%), GGT (46.1%) and ALT (33.4%). Elevated AST, ALT, GGT and low albumin were associated with more severe disease at admission. However, in multivariate Cox regression analysis, when adjusted for age, sex, obesity and presence of chronic liver disease, only AST remained associated with the risk of dying (HR 1.5081 and 2.1315, for elevations 1-3 × ULN and >3 × ULN, respectively) independently of comorbidity burden and COVID-19 severity at admission. Patients with more severe liver injury more frequently experienced defined adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Deranged LBTs are common among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and might be used as predictors of adverse clinical outcomes.

Diagnostic Performance of 2-D Shear-Wave Elastography with Propagation Maps and Attenuation Imaging in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

We aimed to investigate the diagnostic performance of new 2-D shear-wave elastography (SWE) with propagation maps and attenuation imaging (ATI) for quantification of fibrosis and steatosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Consecutive patients with NAFLD and healthy volunteers underwent liver stiffness measurement and steatosis quantification by means of vibration-controlled transient elastography coupled with the controlled attenuation parameter as the reference and by 2-D shear-wave elastography (2-D-SWE) with propagation maps and ATI as the investigational methods. We included 232 participants (164 in the NAFLD group and 68 in the healthy control group): 51.7%/49.3% women/men; mean age, 54.2 ± 15.2 y; mean body mass index, 29.4 ± 6.5 kg/m2. Significant correlations were found between 2-D-SWE and vibration-controlled transient elastography (r = 0.71, p < 0.0001) and between ATI and the controlled attenuation parameter (r = 0.72, p < 0.0001). NAFLD-specific 2-D-SWE liver stiffness measurement cutoffs were as follows-F ≥ 2: 7.9 kPa (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.91); F ≥ 3: 10 kPa (AUC = 0.92); and F = 4: 11.4 kPa (AUC = 0.95). For steatosis, the best cutoffs by ATI were as follows-S1 = 0.73 dB/cm/MHz (AUC = 0.86); S2 = 0.76 dB/cm/MHz (AUC = 0.86); and S3 = 0.80 dB/cm/MHz (AUC = 0.83). According to Baveno VI criteria, the optimal 2-D-SWE liver stiffness measurement for diagnosing liver cirrhosis is 15.5 kPa (AUC = 0.94), and for ruling out compensated advanced chronic liver disease it is 9.2 kPa (AUC = 0.92). To conclude, 2-D-SWE with propagation maps and ATI is reliable for quantification of liver fibrosis and steatosis in patients with NAFLD.

The Role of Anxiolytics in Hypertensive Urgency Management.

Current guidelines do not cover hypertensive urgency management in out-of-hospital setting. Main goal of this study was to evaluate the value of anxiolytic therapy in hypertensive urgencies. We analyzed data gathered by out-of-hospital unit set up during one year. Arterial hypertension was the primary diagnosis in 178 (6.11%) patients, of whom 144 had hypertensive urgency with mean SBP reduction 19.5±7.2%; control group 10.1±6.9%. Anxiolytic therapy was administered in 60% of patients in hypertensive urgency group, and they had a statistically significant greater SBP reduction (p=0.03) than patients who did not receive anxiolytic therapy. There is a place for anxiolytic therapy in hypertensive urgency management.