Radiation treatment of benign tumors in NF2-related-schwannomatosis: A national study of 266 irradiated patients showing a significant increase in malignancy/malignant progression.

Background: Radiation treatment of benign tumors in tumor predisposition syndromes is controversial, but short-term studies from treatment centers suggest safety despite apparent radiation-associated malignancy being reported. We determined whether radiation treatment in NF2-related schwannomatosis patients is associated with increased rates of subsequent malignancy (M)/malignant progression (MP). Methods: All UK patients with NF2 were eligible if they had a clinical/molecular diagnosis. Cases were NF2 patients treated with radiation for benign tumors. Controls were matched for treatment location with surgical/medical treatments based on age and year of treatment. Prospective data collection began in 1990 with addition of retrospective cases in 1969. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed for malignancy incidence and survival. Outcomes were central nervous system (CNS) M/MP (2cm annualized diameter growth) and survival from index tumor treatment. Results: In total, 1345 NF2 patients, 266 (133-Male) underwent radiation treatments between 1969 and 2021 with median first radiotherapy age of 32.9 (IQR = 22.4-46.0). Nine subsequent CNS malignancies/MPs were identified in cases with only 4 in 1079 untreated (P < .001). Lifetime and 20-year CNS M/MP was ~6% in all irradiated patients-(4.9% for vestibular schwannomas [VS] radiotherapy) versus <1% in the non-irradiated population (P < .001/.01). Controls were well matched for age at NF2 diagnosis and treatment (Males = 133%-50%) and had no M/MP in the CNS post-index tumor treatment (P = .0016). Thirty-year survival from index tumor treatment was 45.62% (95% CI = 34.0-56.5) for cases and 66.4% (57.3-74.0) for controls (P = .02), but was nonsignificantly worse for VS radiotherapy. Conclusion: NF2 patients should not be offered radiotherapy as first-line treatment of benign tumors and should be given a frank discussion of the potential 5% excess absolute risk of M/MP.

A mechanistic mathematical model of initiation and malignant transformation in sporadic vestibular schwannoma.

BACKGROUND: A vestibular schwannoma (VS) is a relatively rare, benign tumour of the eighth cranial nerve, often involving alterations to the gene NF2. Previous mathematical models of schwannoma incidence have not attempted to account for alterations in specific genes, and could not distinguish between nonsense mutations and loss of heterozygosity (LOH). METHODS: Here, we present a mechanistic approach to modelling initiation and malignant transformation in schwannoma. Each parameter is associated with a specific gene or mechanism operative in Schwann cells, and can be determined by combining incidence data with empirical frequencies of pathogenic variants and LOH. RESULTS: This results in new estimates for the base-pair mutation rate u = 4.48 × 10-10 and the rate of LOH = 2.03 × 10-6/yr in Schwann cells. In addition to new parameter estimates, we extend the approach to estimate the risk of both spontaneous and radiation-induced malignant transformation. DISCUSSION: We conclude that radiotherapy is likely to have a negligible excess risk of malignancy for sporadic VS, with a possible exception of rapidly growing tumours.

Mathematical model of colorectal cancer initiation.

Quantifying evolutionary dynamics of cancer initiation and progression can provide insights into more effective strategies of early detection and treatment. Here we develop a mathematical model of colorectal cancer initiation through inactivation of two tumor suppressor genes and activation of one oncogene, accounting for the well-known path to colorectal cancer through loss of tumor suppressors APC and TP53 and gain of the KRAS oncogene. In the model, we allow mutations to occur in any order, leading to a complex network of premalignant mutational genotypes on the way to colorectal cancer. We parameterize the model using experimentally measured parameter values, many of them only recently available, and compare its predictions to epidemiological data on colorectal cancer incidence. We find that the reported lifetime risk of colorectal cancer can be recovered using a mathematical model of colorectal cancer initiation together with experimentally measured mutation rates in colorectal tissues and proliferation rates of premalignant lesions. We demonstrate that the order of driver events in colorectal cancer is determined primarily by the fitness effects that they provide, rather than their mutation rates. Our results imply that there may not be significant immune suppression of untreated benign and malignant colorectal lesions.

On measuring selection in cancer from subclonal mutation frequencies.

Recently available cancer sequencing data have revealed a complex view of the cancer genome containing a multitude of mutations, including drivers responsible for cancer progression and neutral passengers. Measuring selection in cancer and distinguishing drivers from passengers have important implications for development of novel treatment strategies. It has recently been argued that a third of cancers are evolving neutrally, as their mutational frequency spectrum follows a 1/f power law expected from neutral evolution in a particular intermediate frequency range. We study a stochastic model of cancer evolution and derive a formula for the probability distribution of the cancer cell frequency of a subclonal driver, demonstrating that driver frequency is biased towards 0 and 1. We show that it is difficult to capture a driver mutation at an intermediate frequency, and thus the calling of neutrality due to a lack of such driver will significantly overestimate the number of neutrally evolving tumors. Our approach provides quantification of the validity of the 1/f statistic across the entire range of relevant parameter values. We also show that our conclusions remain valid for non-exponential models: spatial 3d model and sigmoidal growth, relevant for early- and late stages of cancer growth.

Erratum: An exactly solvable, spatial model of mutation accumulation in cancer.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/srep39511.

An exactly solvable, spatial model of mutation accumulation in cancer.

One of the hallmarks of cancer is the accumulation of driver mutations which increase the net reproductive rate of cancer cells and allow them to spread. This process has been studied in mathematical models of well mixed populations, and in computer simulations of three-dimensional spatial models. But the computational complexity of these more realistic, spatial models makes it difficult to simulate realistically large and clinically detectable solid tumours. Here we describe an exactly solvable mathematical model of a tumour featuring replication, mutation and local migration of cancer cells. The model predicts a quasi-exponential growth of large tumours, even if different fragments of the tumour grow sub-exponentially due to nutrient and space limitations. The model reproduces clinically observed tumour growth times using biologically plausible rates for cell birth, death, and migration rates. We also show that the expected number of accumulated driver mutations increases exponentially in time if the average fitness gain per driver is constant, and that it reaches a plateau if the gains decrease over time. We discuss the realism of the underlying assumptions and possible extensions of the model.