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BACKGROUND: In 2020, the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Ontario, Canada, introduced a virtual urgent care (VUC) pilot program to provide alternative access to urgent care services and reduce the need for in-person emergency department (ED) visits for patients with low acuity health concerns. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to compare the 30-day costs associated with VUC and in-person ED encounters from an MoH perspective. METHODS: Using administrative data from Ontario (the most populous province of Canada), a population-based, matched cohort study of Ontarians who used VUC services from December 2020 to September 2021 was conducted. As it was expected that VUC and in-person ED users would be different, two cohorts of VUC users were defined: (1) those who were promptly referred to an ED by a VUC provider and subsequently presented to an ED within 72 hours (these patients were matched to in-person ED users with any discharge disposition) and (2) those seen by a VUC provider with no referral to an in-person ED (these patients were matched to patients who presented in-person to the ED and were discharged home by the ED physician). Bootstrap techniques were used to compare the 30-day mean costs of VUC (operational costs to set up the VUC program plus health care expenditures) versus in-person ED care (health care expenditures) from an MoH perspective. All costs are expressed in Canadian dollars (a currency exchange rate of CAD $1=US $0.76 is applicable). RESULTS: We matched 2129 patients who presented to an ED within 72 hours of VUC referral and 14,179 patients seen by a VUC provider without a referral to an ED. Our matched populations represented 99% (2129/2150) of eligible VUC patients referred to the ED by their VUC provider and 98% (14,179/14,498) of eligible VUC patients not referred to the ED by their VUC provider. Compared to matched in-person ED patients, 30-day costs per patient were significantly higher for the cohort of VUC patients who presented to an ED within 72 hours of VUC referral ($2805 vs $2299; difference of $506, 95% CI $139-$885) and significantly lower for the VUC cohort of patients who did not require ED referral ($907 vs $1270; difference of $362, 95% CI 284-$446). Overall, the absolute 30-day costs associated with the 2 VUC cohorts were $18.9 million (ie, $6.0 million + $12.9 million) versus $22.9 million ($4.9 million + $18.0 million) for the 2 in-person ED cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This costing evaluation supports the use of VUC as most complaints were addressed without referral to ED. Future research should evaluate targeted applications of VUC (eg, VUC models led by nurse practitioners or physician assistants with support from ED physicians) to inform future resource allocation and policy decisions.
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Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Ontario , Humanos , Proyectos Piloto , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Masculino , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/economía , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto , Atención Ambulatoria/economía , Anciano , Telemedicina/economía , Costos de la Atención en Salud/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) remains a dreaded and unpredictable complication after total hip arthroplasty (THA). In addition to causing substantial morbidity, PJI may contribute to long-term mortality risk. Our objective was to determine the long-term mortality risk associated with PJI following THA. METHODS: This population-based, retrospective cohort study included adult patients (≥18 years old) in Ontario, Canada, who underwent their first primary elective THA for arthritis between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2021. The primary outcome was death within 10 years after the index THA. Mortality was compared between propensity-score-matched groups (PJI within 1 year after surgery versus no PJI within 1 year after surgery) with use of survival analyses. Patients who died within 1 year after surgery were excluded to avoid immortal time bias. RESULTS: A total of 175,432 patients (95,883 [54.7%] women) with a mean age (and standard deviation) of 67 ± 11.4 years underwent primary THA during the study period. Of these, 868 patients (0.49%) underwent surgery for a PJI of the replaced joint within 1 year after the index procedure. After matching, patients with a PJI within the first year had a significantly higher 10-year mortality rate than their counterparts (11.4% [94 of 827 patients] versus 2.2% [18 of 827 patients]; absolute risk difference, 9.19% [95% confidence interval (CI), 6.81% to 11.6%]; hazard ratio, 5.49 [95% CI, 3.32 to 9.09]). CONCLUSIONS: PJI within 1 year after surgery is associated with over a fivefold increased risk of mortality within 10 years. The findings of this study underscore the importance of prioritizing efforts related to the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PJIs. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
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BACKGROUND: Immigrants and refugees face unique challenges navigating the health care system to manage severe arthritis, because of unfamiliarity, lack of awareness of surgical options, or access. The purpose of this study was to assess total knee arthroplasty (TKA) uptake, surgical outcomes, and hospital utilization among immigrants and refugees compared with Canadian-born patients. METHODS: We included all adults undergoing primary TKA from January 2011 to December 2020 in Ontario. Cohorts were defined as Canadian-born or immigrants and refugees. We assessed change in yearly TKA utilization for trend. We compared differences in 1-year revision, infection rates, 30-day venous thromboembolism (VTE), presentation to emergency department, and hospital readmission between matched Canadian-born and immigrant and refugee groups. RESULTS: We included 158 031 TKA procedures. A total of 11 973 (7.6%) patients were in the immigrant and refugee group, and 146 058 (92.4%) patients were in the Canadian-born group. The proportion of TKAs in Ontario performed among immigrants and refugees nearly doubled over the 10-year study period (p < 0.001). After matching, immigrants were at relatively lower risk of 1-year revision (0.9% v. 1.6%, p < 0.001), infection (p < 0.001), death (p = 0.004), and surgical complications (p < 0.001). No differences were observed in rates of 30-day VTE or length of hospital stay. Immigrants were more likely to be discharged to rehabilitation (p < 0.001) and less likely to present to the emergency department (p < 0.001) than Canadian-born patients. CONCLUSION: Compared with Canadian-born patients, immigrants and refugees have favourable surgical outcomes and similar rates of resource utilization after TKA. We observed an underutilization of these procedures in Ontario relative to their proportion of the population. This may reflect differences in perceptions of chronic pain or barriers accessing arthroplasty.
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Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Rodilla , Emigrantes e Inmigrantes , Humanos , Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Rodilla/estadística & datos numéricos , Ontario/epidemiología , Femenino , Masculino , Anciano , Persona de Mediana Edad , Emigrantes e Inmigrantes/estadística & datos numéricos , Refugiados/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios de Cohortes , Reoperación/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Readmisión del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Resultado del Tratamiento , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Scanning Thermal Microscopy (SThM) has become an important measurement technique for characterizing the thermal properties of materials at the nanometer scale. This technique requires a SThM probe that combines an Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) probe and a very sensitive resistive thermometer; the thermometer being located at the apex of the probe tip allows for the mapping of temperature or thermal properties of nanostructured materials with very high spatial resolution. The high interest of the SThM technique in the field of thermal nanoscience currently suffers from a low temperature sensitivity despite its high spatial resolution. To address this challenge, we developed a high vacuum-based AFM system hosting a highly sensitive niobium nitride (NbN) SThM probe to demonstrate its unique performance. As a proof of concept, we utilized this custom-built system to carry out thermal measurements using the 3ω method. By measuring the V3ω voltage on the NbN resistive thermometer under vacuum conditions, we were able to determine the SThM probe's thermal conductance and thermal time constant. The performance of the probe is demonstrated by performing thermal measurements in-contact with a sapphire sample.
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BACKGROUND: Demand for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is increasing as it remains the gold-standard treatment for end-stage osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of the knee are not indicated for diagnosing knee OA and represent a possible delay to orthopaedic surgeon referral and unnecessary expenditure. The purpose of this study was to determine the proportion of patients who underwent an MRI in the two years prior to their primary TKA for OA and determine patient and physician associations with increased MRI usage. METHODS: This is a population-based cohort study using administrative data from Ontario, Canada. All patients over 40 years old who underwent their first primary TKA between April 1, 2008, and March 31, 2019, were included. Statistical analyses were performed using SAS and included the Cochran-Armitage test for trend of MRI prior to surgery. A predictive multivariable regression model was used to determine features correlated to receiving an MRI. RESULTS: There were 194,989 eligible first-time TKA recipients, of which 38,244 (19.6%) received an MRI in the two years prior to their surgery. The majority of these (69.6%) were ordered by primary care physicians. Patients who received an MRI were younger, had fewer comorbidities and were more affluent than patients who did not (p < 0.001). MRI use prior to TKA increased from 2008 to 2018 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Despite MRIs rarely being indicated for the work-up of end-stage OA, nearly one in five patients have an MRI in the two years prior to their TKA. This may be increasing healthcare expenditure and surgical wait-times.
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Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Rodilla , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética , Osteoartritis de la Rodilla , Humanos , Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Rodilla/estadística & datos numéricos , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Masculino , Osteoartritis de la Rodilla/cirugía , Osteoartritis de la Rodilla/diagnóstico por imagen , Estudios Retrospectivos , Anciano , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ontario , AdultoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The drug toxicity crisis continues to accelerate across Canada, with rapid increases in opioid-related harms following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to describe trends in the burden of opioid-related deaths across Canada throughout the pandemic, comparing these trends by province or territory, age, and sex. METHODS: We conducted a repeated cross-sectional analysis of accidental opioid-related deaths between Jan. 1, 2019, and Dec. 31, 2021, across 9 Canadian provinces and territories using aggregated national data. Our primary measure was the burden of premature opioid-related death, measured by potential years of life lost. Our secondary measure was the proportion of all deaths attributable to opioids; we used the Cochrane-Armitage test for trend to compare proportions. RESULTS: Between 2019 and 2021, the annual number of opioid-related deaths increased from 3007 to 6222 and years of life lost increased from 126 115 to 256 336 (from 3.5 to 7.0 yr of life lost per 1000 population). In 2021, the highest number of years of life lost was among males (181 525 yr) and people aged 30-39 years (87 045 yr). In 2019, we found that 1.7% of all deaths among those younger than 85 years were related to opioids, rising to 3.2% in 2021. Significant increases in the proportion of deaths related to opioids were observed across all age groups (p < 0.001), representing 29.3% and 29.0% of deaths among people aged 20-29 and 30-39 years in 2021, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Across Canada, the burden of premature opioid-related deaths doubled between 2019 and 2021, representing more than one-quarter of deaths among younger adults. The disproportionate loss of life in this demographic group highlights the critical need for targeted prevention efforts.
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Analgésicos Opioides , Pandemias , Adulto , Masculino , Humanos , Analgésicos Opioides/efectos adversos , Canadá/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Mortalidad PrematuraRESUMEN
In this work, the experimental evidence of glass-like phonon dynamics and thermal conductivity in a nanocomposite made of GeTe and amorphous carbon is reported, which is of interest for microelectronics, and specifically phase change memories. It is shown that, the total thermal conductivity is reduced by a factor of three at room temperature with respect to pure GeTe, due to the reduction of both electronic and phononic contributions. This latter, similarly to glasses, is small and weakly increasing with temperature between 100 and 300 K, indicating a mostly diffusive thermal transport and reaching a value of 0.86(7) Wm-1K-1 at room temperature. A thorough investigation of the nanocomposite's phonon dynamics reveals the appearance of an excess intensity in the low energy vibrational density of states, reminiscent of the Boson peak in glasses. These features can be understood in terms of an enhanced phonon scattering at the interfaces, due to the presence of elastic heterogeneities, at wavelengths in the 2-20 nm range. The findings confirm recent simulation results on crystalline/amorphous nanocomposites and open new perspectives in phonon and thermal engineering through the direct manipulation of elastic heterogeneities.
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BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines recommend early serum electrolyte monitoring when starting antidepressants in older adults due to the increased risk of hyponatremia. It is unclear whether this monitoring improves outcomes. METHODS: Population-based, retrospective cohort study of Ontario adults aged ≥66 years who initiated therapy with a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) or selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor (SNRI) between April 1, 2013, and January 31, 2020. The index date was the date of the first such prescription, and the exposure of interest was serum electrolyte measurement during the subsequent 7 days. The primary outcome was any emergency department or hospital admission with hyponatremia within 8-60 days of antidepressant initiation. Poisson regression models compared individuals who had versus did not have their serum electrolytes tested in the week following SSRI/SNRI initiation, weighting by propensity score-based overlap weights. RESULTS: Among the 420,085 patients aged ≥66 years initiating treatment with an SSRI/SNRI, 26,808 (6.4%) had serum electrolytes measured in the subsequent 7 days and 6109 (1.5%) subsequently presented to hospital with hyponatremia. The time from drug initiation to hospitalization varied (median 29, interquartile range [IQR] 17-44 days), and the median sodium concentration measured in the community (136, IQR 133-138 mmol/L) was marginally higher than those at the time of hospitalization (132, IQR 130-134 mmol/L). Patients who underwent electrolyte testing in the week following SSRI/SNRI treatment were more likely to attend an emergency department (ED) or hospital with hyponatremia within 8-60 days relative to those who did not (relative risk = 2.31, 95% confidence interval: 2.16-2.46). CONCLUSIONS: Testing serum electrolytes in the week after starting an SSRI/SNRI is not associated with a reduced risk of a hospital visit with hyponatremia. These findings do not support current guidelines recommending routine electrolyte monitoring.
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Hospitalización , Hiponatremia , Inhibidores Selectivos de la Recaptación de Serotonina , Humanos , Hiponatremia/inducido químicamente , Anciano , Femenino , Masculino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Inhibidores Selectivos de la Recaptación de Serotonina/efectos adversos , Inhibidores Selectivos de la Recaptación de Serotonina/uso terapéutico , Ontario , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Antidepresivos/efectos adversos , Antidepresivos/uso terapéutico , Electrólitos/sangre , Inhibidores de Captación de Serotonina y Norepinefrina/efectos adversos , Inhibidores de Captación de Serotonina y Norepinefrina/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
Purpose: Few studies have examined how the absolute risk of thromboembolism with COVID-19 has evolved over time across different countries. Researchers from the European Medicines Agency, Health Canada, and the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration established a collaboration to evaluate the absolute risk of arterial (ATE) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) in the 90 days after diagnosis of COVID-19 in the ambulatory (eg, outpatient, emergency department, nursing facility) setting from seven countries across North America (Canada, US) and Europe (England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain) within periods before and during COVID-19 vaccine availability. Patients and Methods: We conducted cohort studies of patients initially diagnosed with COVID-19 in the ambulatory setting from the seven specified countries. Patients were followed for 90 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. The primary outcomes were ATE and VTE over 90 days from diagnosis date. We measured country-level estimates of 90-day absolute risk (with 95% confidence intervals) of ATE and VTE. Results: The seven cohorts included 1,061,565 patients initially diagnosed with COVID-19 in the ambulatory setting before COVID-19 vaccines were available (through November 2020). The 90-day absolute risk of ATE during this period ranged from 0.11% (0.09-0.13%) in Canada to 1.01% (0.97-1.05%) in the US, and the 90-day absolute risk of VTE ranged from 0.23% (0.21-0.26%) in Canada to 0.84% (0.80-0.89%) in England. The seven cohorts included 3,544,062 patients with COVID-19 during vaccine availability (beginning December 2020). The 90-day absolute risk of ATE during this period ranged from 0.06% (0.06-0.07%) in England to 1.04% (1.01-1.06%) in the US, and the 90-day absolute risk of VTE ranged from 0.25% (0.24-0.26%) in England to 1.02% (0.99-1.04%) in the US. Conclusion: There was heterogeneity by country in 90-day absolute risk of ATE and VTE after ambulatory COVID-19 diagnosis both before and during COVID-19 vaccine availability.
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PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic had innumerable impacts on healthcare delivery. In Canada, this included limitations on inpatient capacity, which resulted in an increased focus on outpatient surgery for non-emergent cases such as joint replacements. The objective of this study was to assess whether the pandemic and the shift towards outpatient surgery had an impact on access to joint replacement for marginalized patients. METHODS: Data from Ontario's administrative healthcare databases were obtained for all patients undergoing an elective hip or knee replacement between January 1, 2018 and August 31, 2021. All surgeries performed before March 15, 2020 were classified as "pre-COVID," while all procedures performed after that date were classified as "post-COVID." The Ontario Marginalization Index domains were used to analyze proportion of marginalized patients undergoing surgery pre- and post-COVID. RESULTS: A total of 102,743 patients were included-42,812 hip replacements and 59,931 knee replacements. There was a significant shift towards outpatient surgery during the post-COVID period (1.1% of all cases pre-COVID to 13.2% post-COVID, p < 0.001). In the post-COVID cohort, there were significantly fewer patients from some marginalized groups, as well as fewer patients with certain co-morbidities, such as congestive heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSION: The most important finding of this population-level database study is that, compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a change in the profile of patients undergoing hip and knee replacements in Ontario, specifically across a range of indicators. Fewer marginalized patients are undergoing joint replacement surgery since the COVID-19 pandemic. Further monitoring of access to joint replacement surgery is required in order to ensure that surgery is provided to those who are most in need.
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Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera , Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Rodilla , COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Pandemias , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de SaludRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Previous research has suggested that how physicians are paid may affect the completeness of billing claims for estimating chronic disease. The purpose of this study is to estimate the completeness of physician billings for diabetes case ascertainment. METHODS: We used administrative data from eight Canadian provinces covering the period 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2016. The patient cohort was stratified into two mutually exclusive groups based on their physician remuneration type: fee-for-service (FFS), for those paid only on that basis; and non-fee-for-service (NFFS). Using diabetes prescription drug data as our reference data source, we evaluated whether completeness of disease case ascertainment varied with payment type. Diabetes incidence rates were then adjusted for completeness of ascertainment. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 86 110 patients. Overall, equal proportions received their diabetes medications from FFS and NFFS physicians. Overall, physician payment method had little impact upon the percentage of missed diabetes cases (FFS, 14.8%; NFFS, 12.2%). However, the difference in missed cases between FFS and NFFS varied widely by province, ranging from -1.0% in Nova Scotia to 29.9% in Newfoundland and Labrador. The difference between the observed and adjusted disease incidence rates also varied by province, ranging from 22% in Prince Edward Island to 4% in Nova Scotia. CONCLUSION: The difference in the loss of cases by physician remuneration method varied across jurisdictions. This loss may contribute to an underestimation of disease incidence. The method we used could be applied to other chronic diseases for which drug therapy could serve as reference data source.
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Diabetes Mellitus , Médicos , Medicamentos bajo Prescripción , Humanos , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Diabetes Mellitus/terapia , Nueva Escocia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Virtual urgent care (VUC) is intended to support diversion of patients with low-acuity complaints and reduce the need for in-person emergency department visits. We aimed to describe subsequent health care utilization and outcomes of patients who used VUC compared with similar patients who had an in-person emergency department visit. METHODS: We used patient-level encounter data that were prospectively collected for patients using VUC services provided by 14 pilot programs in Ontario, Canada. We linked the data to provincial administrative databases to identify subsequent 30-day health care utilization and outcomes. We defined 2 subgroups of VUC users; those with a documented prompt referral to an emergency department by a VUC provider, and those without. We matched patients in each cohort to an equal number of patients presenting to an emergency department in person, based on encounter date, medical concern and the logit of a propensity score. For the subgroup of patients not promptly referred to an emergency department, we matched patients to those who were seen in an emergency department and then discharged home. RESULTS: Of the 19 595 patient VUC visits linked to administrative data, we matched 2129 patients promptly referred to the emergency department by a VUC provider to patients presenting to the emergency department in person. Index visit hospital admissions (9.4% v. 8.7%), 30-day emergency department visits (17.0% v. 17.5%), and hospital admissions (12.9% v. 11.0%) were similar between the groups. We matched 14 179 patients who were seen by a VUC provider with no documented referral to the emergency department. Patients seen by VUC were more likely to have a subsequent in-person emergency department visit within 72 hours (13.7% v. 7.0%), 7 days (16.5% v. 10.3%) and 30 days (21.9% v. 17.9%), but hospital admissions were similar within 72 hours (1.1% v. 1.3%), and higher within 30 days for patients who were discharged home from the emergency department (2.6% v. 3.4%). INTERPRETATION: The impact of the provincial VUC pilot program on subsequent health care utilization was limited. There is a need to better understand the inherent limitations of virtual care and ensure future virtual providers have timely access to in-person outpatient resources, to prevent subsequent emergency department visits.
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Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Aceptación de la Atención de Salud , Humanos , Atención Ambulatoria , Ontario , Pacientes Ambulatorios , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Ranitidine was the most prescribed histamine-2 receptor antagonist (H2RA) in Canada when recalled in 2019 because of potential carcinogenicity. We sought to compare geographic and temporal patterns in use of prescription ranitidine and 3 other HRAs and estimated population exposure to ranitidine in 6 provinces between 1996 and 2019. METHODS: This population-based serial cross-sectional study used prescription claims for H2RAs dispensed from community pharmacies in Nova Scotia, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. We estimated the period prevalence of ranitidine use per 100 population by province, age category and sex. We estimated exposure to ranitidine between 2015 and 2019 using defined daily doses (DDDs). RESULTS: Overall, 2.4 million ranitidine prescriptions were dispensed to patients aged 65 years and older, and 1.7 million were dispensed to younger adults. Among older adults, the median period prevalence of ranitidine use among females was 16% (interquartile range [IQR] 13%-27%) higher than among males. Among younger adults, the median prevalence was 50% (IQR 37%-70%) higher among females. Among older adults, between 1996 and 1999, use was highest in Nova Scotia (33%) and Ontario (30%), lower in the prairies (Manitoba [18%], Saskatchewan [26%], Alberta [17%]) and lowest in BC (11%). By 2015-2019, use of ranitidine among older adults dropped by at least 50% in all provinces except BC. We estimate that at least 142 million DDDs of prescribed ranitidine were consumed annually in 6 provinces (2015-2019). INTERPRETATION: Over the 24-year period in 6 provinces, patients aged 65 years and older were dispensed 2.4 million prescriptions of ranitidine and younger adults were dispensed 1.7 million prescriptions of ranitidine. These estimates of ranitidine exposure can be used for planning studies of cancer risk and identifying target populations for cancer surveillance.
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BACKGROUND: Accurate coding of diagnoses of SARS-CoV-2 infection in administrative data benefits population-based studies about the epidemiology, treatment and outcomes of COVID-19. We describe the validity of diagnoses of SARS-CoV-2 infection recorded in hospital discharge abstracts, emergency department records and outpatient physician service claims from 3 Canadian provinces. METHODS: In this cohort study, population-based inpatient, emergency department and outpatient records were linked to SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR; reference standard) test results from British Columbia, Manitoba and Ontario for Apr. 1, 2020, to Mar. 31, 2021. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of diagnoses of SARS-CoV-2 infection were estimated for each quarter in the study period, overall and by province, age group and sex. RESULTS: Our study encompassed more than 13 million SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results. Specificity and NPV of diagnoses of SARS-CoV-2 infection were consistently high (i.e., most estimates were > 95%). Overall sensitivity estimates were 86.2%, 60.4% and 20.3% in the first quarter for inpatient, emergency department and outpatient cohorts, and 66.2%, 47.5% and 25.0% in the last quarter, respectively. For inpatients, overall PPV estimates ranged from 50.0% to 66.4%. For emergency department patients, overall PPV estimates were 76.9% and 68.3% in the first and last quarters, respectively. For outpatients, PPV estimates were 6.8% and 29.1% in the first and last quarters, respectively. INTERPRETATION: We found variations in the validity of diagnoses for SARS-CoV-2 infection recorded in different health care settings, geographic areas and over time. Our multiprovince validation study provides evidence about the potential use of inpatient and emergency department records as an alternative to population-based laboratory data for identification of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, but does not support the use of outpatient claims for this purpose.
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BACKGROUND: Oxycodone is increasingly prescribed for postpartum analgesia in lieu of codeine owing to concerns regarding the neonatal safety of codeine during lactation. We examined whether initiation of oxycodone after delivery was associated with an increased risk of persistent opioid use relative to initiation of codeine. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of people who filled a prescription for either codeine or oxycodone within 7 days of discharge from hospital after delivery between Sept. 1, 2012, and June 30, 2020. The primary outcome was persistent opioid use, defined as 1 or more additional prescriptions for an opioid within 90 days of the first postpartum prescription and 1 or more additional prescriptions in the 91 to 365 days thereafter. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to assess the risk of persistent postpartum opioid use, comparing people who initiated oxycodone with those who initiated codeine. RESULTS: Over the 8-year study period, we identified 70 607 people who filled an opioid prescription within 7 days of discharge from hospital: 21 308 (30.2%) received codeine and 49 299 (69.8%) oxycodone. Compared with people who filled a prescription for codeine, receipt of oxycodone was not associated with persistent opioid use (relative risk [RR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-1.20). We found an association between a prescription for oxycodone and persistent use after vaginal delivery (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.31-2.03), but not after cesarean delivery (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.73-1.00). INTERPRETATION: Initiation of oxycodone (v. codeine) was not associated with an increased risk of persistent opioid use, except after vaginal delivery.
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Codeína , Trastornos Relacionados con Opioides , Embarazo , Femenino , Recién Nacido , Humanos , Codeína/efectos adversos , Oxicodona/efectos adversos , Analgésicos Opioides/efectos adversos , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios Retrospectivos , Trastornos Relacionados con Opioides/epidemiología , Trastornos Relacionados con Opioides/tratamiento farmacológico , Prescripciones de MedicamentosRESUMEN
Identifying and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demographic models is important for estimating population-level vital rates and identifying diverse life-history strategies, but much less is known about how this individual heterogeneity influences population dynamics. We aimed to understand how the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproductive and survival rates influenced population dynamics using vital rates from a Weddell seal population by altering the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction, which also altered the distribution of individual survival rates through the incorporation of our estimate of the correlation between the two rates and assessing resulting changes in population growth. We constructed an integral projection model (IPM) structured by age and reproductive state using estimates of vital rates for a long-lived mammal that has recently been shown to exhibit large individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Using output from the IPM, we evaluated how population dynamics changed with different underlying distributions of unobserved individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Results indicate that the changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction cause very small changes in the population growth rate and other population metrics. The largest difference in the estimated population growth rate resulting from changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity was less than 1%. Our work highlights the differing importance of individual heterogeneity at the population level compared to the individual level. Although individual heterogeneity in reproduction may result in large differences in the lifetime fitness of individuals, changing the proportion of above- or below-average breeders in the population results in much smaller differences in annual population growth rate. For a long-lived mammal with stable and high adult-survival that gives birth to a single offspring, individual heterogeneity in reproduction has a limited effect on population dynamics. We posit that the limited effect of individual heterogeneity on population dynamics may be due to canalization of life-history traits.
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Rasgos de la Historia de Vida , Phocidae , Animales , Dinámica Poblacional , Reproducción , Crecimiento DemográficoRESUMEN
Importance: Opioid-related harms constitute a major public health crisis in the US, and this crisis has worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. Objectives: To characterize the societal burden of unintentional opioid-related deaths in the US and describe changing mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: A serial cross-sectional study examined all unintentional opioid-related deaths in the US, evaluated annually from calendar years 2011 to 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The public health burden of opioid toxicity-related deaths was estimated in 2 ways. First, the proportion of all deaths that were attributable to unintentional opioid toxicity by year (2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021) and age group (15-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, and 60-74 years) were calculated, using age-specific estimates of all-cause mortality as the denominator. Second, the total years of life lost (YLL) due to unintentional opioid toxicity was estimated, overall and by sex and age group, for each year studied. Results: Among the 422â¯605 unintentional deaths due to opioid toxicity between 2011 and 2021, the median age of the individuals was 39 (IQR, 30-51) years, and 69.7% were male. The number of unintentional deaths due to opioid toxicity increased 289% over the study period, from 19â¯395 (2011) to 75â¯477 (2021). Similarly, the percentage of all deaths that were attributed to opioid toxicity increased from 1.8% in 2011 to 4.5% in 2021. By 2021, opioid toxicity was responsible for 10.2% of all deaths among those aged 15 to 19 years, 21.7% of deaths among those aged 20 to 29 years, and 21.0% of deaths among those aged 30 to 39 years. The YLL due to opioid toxicity increased 276% over the study period, from 777â¯597 in 2011 to 2â¯922â¯497 in 2021. While YLL plateaued between 2017 (7.0 YLL per 1000) and 2019 (7.2 YLL per 1000), it increased by 62.9% between 2019 and 2021 coincident with the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 11.7 YLL per 1000 population. This relative increase was similar across all age groups and sexes with the exception of those aged 15 to 19 years, in whom the YLL nearly tripled, from 1.5 to 3.9 YLL per 1000 population. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, deaths due to opioid toxicity increased substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2021, 1 of every 22 deaths in the US was attributable to unintentional opioid toxicity, underscoring the urgent need to support people at risk of substance-related harm, particularly men, younger adults, and adolescents.
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COVID-19 , Adolescente , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Analgésicos Opioides/efectos adversos , Estudios Transversales , PandemiasRESUMEN
Walk-in clinics are typically viewed as high-volume locations for managing acute issues but also may serve as a location for primary care, including cancer screening, for patients without a family physician. In this population-based cohort study, we compared breast, cervical and colorectal cancer screening up-to-date status for people living in the Canadian province of Ontario who were formally enrolled to a family physician versus those not enrolled but who had at least one encounter with a walk-in clinic physician in the previous year. Using provincial administrative databases, we created two mutually exclusive groups: i) those who were formally enrolled to a family physician, ii) those who were not enrolled but had at least one visit with a walk-in clinic physician from April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. We compared up to date status for three cancer screenings as of April 1, 2020 among screen-eligible people. We found that people who were not enrolled and had seen a walk-in clinic physician in the previous year consistently were less likely to be up to date on cancer screening than Ontarians who were formally enrolled with a family physician (46.1% vs. 67.4% for breast, 45.8% vs. 67.4% for cervical, 49.5% vs. 73.1% for colorectal). They were also more likely to be foreign-born and to live in structurally marginalized neighbourhoods. New methods are needed to enable screening for people who are reliant on walk-in clinics and to address the urgent need in Ontario for more primary care providers who deliver comprehensive, longitudinal care.
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Neoplasias , Médicos , Humanos , Ontario , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/métodos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estudios de Cohortes , Tamizaje MasivoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Walk-in clinics are common in North America and are designed to provide acute episodic care without an appointment. We sought to describe a sample of walk-in clinic patients in Ontario, Canada, which is a setting with high levels of primary care attachment. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study using health administrative data from 2019. We compared the sociodemographic characteristics and health care utilization patterns of patients attending 1 of 72 walk-in clinics with those of the general Ontario population. We examined the subset of patients who were enrolled with a family physician and compared walk-in clinic visits to family physician visits. RESULTS: Our study found that 562 781 patients made 1 148 151 visits to the included walk-in clinics. Most (70%) patients who attended a walk-in clinic had an enrolling family physician. Walk-in clinic patients were younger (mean age 36 yr v. 41 yr, standardized mean difference [SMD] 0.24), yet had greater health care utilization (moderate and high use group 74% v. 65%, SMD 0.20) than the general Ontario population. Among enrolled Ontarians, walk-in patients had more comorbidities (moderate and high count 50% v. 45%, SMD 0.10), lived farther from their enrolling physician (median 8 km v. 6 km, SMD 0.21) and saw their enrolling physician less in the previous year (any visit 67% v. 80%, SMD 0.30). Walk-in encounters happened more often after hours (16% v. 9%, SMD 0.20) and on weekends (18% v. 5%, SMD 0.45). Walk-in clinics were more often within 3 km of patients' homes than enrolling physicians' offices (0 to < 3 km: 32% v. 22%, SMD 0.21). INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that proximity of walk-in clinics and after-hours access may be contributing to walk-in clinic use among patients enrolled with a family physician. These findings have implications for policy development to improve the integration of walk-in clinics and longitudinal primary care.
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Instituciones de Atención Ambulatoria , Médicos de Familia , Humanos , Adulto , Ontario/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Atención a la SaludRESUMEN
Importance: Excess adiposity confers higher risk of breast cancer for women. For women who have lost substantial weight, it is unclear whether previous obesity confers residual increased baseline risk of breast cancer compared with peers without obesity. Objectives: To determine whether there is a residual risk of breast cancer due to prior obesity among patients who undergo bariatric surgery. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective matched cohort study of 69â¯260 women with index date between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2016. Patients were followed up for 5 years after bariatric surgery or index date. Population-based clinical and administrative data from multiple databases in Ontario, Canada, were used to match a cohort of women who underwent bariatric surgery for obesity (baseline body mass index [BMI] ≥35 with comorbid conditions or BMI ≥40) to women without a history of bariatric surgery according to age and breast cancer screening history. Nonsurgical controls were divided into 4 BMI categories (<25, 25-29, 30-34, and ≥35). Data were analyzed on October 21, 2021. Exposures: Weight loss via bariatric surgery. Main Outcomes and Measures: Residual hazard of breast cancer after washout periods of 1, 2, and 5 years. Comparisons were made between the surgical and nonsurgical cohorts overall and within each of the BMI subgroups. Results: In total, 69â¯260 women were included in the analysis, with 13â¯852 women in each of the 5 study cohorts. The mean (SD) age was 45.1 (10.9) years. In the postsurgical cohort vs the overall nonsurgical cohort (n = 55â¯408), there was an increased hazard for incident breast cancer in the nonsurgical group after washout periods of 1 year (hazard ratio [HR], 1.40 [95% CI, 1.18-1.67]), 2 years (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.12-1.53]), and 5 years (HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.21-1.58]). When the postsurgical cohort was compared with the nonsurgical cohort with BMI less than 25, the hazard of incident breast cancer was not significantly different regardless of the washout period, whereas there was a reduced hazard for incident breast cancer among postsurgical patients compared with nonsurgical patients in all high BMI categories (BMI ≥25). Conclusions and Relevance: Findings suggest that bariatric surgery was associated with a reduced risk of developing breast cancer for women with prior obesity equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI less than 25 and a lower risk when compared with all groups with BMI greater than or equal to 25.