COVID-19 in Children in the United States: Intensive Care Admissions, Estimated Total Infected, and Projected Numbers of Severe Pediatric Cases in 2020.

IMPORTANCE: A surge in severe cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) in children would present unique challenges for hospitals and public health preparedness efforts in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To provide evidence-based estimates of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) and projected cumulative numbers of severely ill pediatric COVID-19 cases requiring hospitalization during the US 2020 pandemic. DESIGN: Empirical case projection study. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Adjusted pediatric severity proportions and adjusted pediatric criticality proportions were derived from clinical and spatiotemporal modeling studies of the COVID-19 epidemic in China for the period January-February 2020. Estimates of total children infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the United States through April 6, 2020, were calculated using US pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) cases and the adjusted pediatric criticality proportion. Projected numbers of severely and critically ill children with COVID-19 were derived by applying the adjusted severity and criticality proportions to US population data, under several scenarios of cumulative pediatric infection proportion (CPIP). RESULTS: By April 6, 2020, there were 74 children who had been reported admitted to PICUs in 19 states, reflecting an estimated 176 190 children nationwide infected with SARS-CoV-2 (52 381 infants and toddlers younger than 2 years, 42 857 children aged 2-11 years, and 80 952 children aged 12-17 years). Under a CPIP scenario of 5%, there would be 3.7 million children infected with SARS-CoV-2, 9907 severely ill children requiring hospitalization, and 1086 critically ill children requiring PICU admission. Under a CPIP scenario of 50%, 10 865 children would require PICU admission, 99 073 would require hospitalization for severe pneumonia, and 37.0 million would be infected with SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Because there are 74.0 million children 0 to 17 years old in the United States, the projected numbers of severe cases could overextend available pediatric hospital care resources under several moderate CPIP scenarios for 2020 despite lower severity of COVID-19 in children than in adults.

Those Responsible for Approving Research Studies Have Poor Knowledge of Research Study Design: a Knowledge Assessment of Institutional Review Board Members.

BACKGROUND: Institutional Review Board (IRB) members have a duty to protect the integrity of the research process, but little is known about their basic knowledge of clinical research study designs. METHODS: A nationwide sample of IRB members from major US research universities completed a web-based questionnaire consisting of 11 questions focusing on basic knowledge about clinical research study designs. It included questions about randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and other observational research study designs. Potential predictors (age, gender, educational attainment, type of IRB, current IRB membership, years of IRB service, clinical research experience, and self-identification as a scientist) of incorrect answers were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: 148 individuals from 36 universities participated. The majority of participants, 68.9% (102/148), were holding a medical or doctoral degree. Overall, only 26.5% (39/148) of participants achieved a perfect score of 11. On the six-question subset addressing RCTs, 46.6% (69/148) had a perfect score. Most individual questions, and the summary model of overall quiz score (perfect vs. not perfect), revealed no significant predictors - indicating that knowledge deficits were not limited to specific subgroups of IRB members. For the RCT knowledge score there was one significant predictor: compared with MDs, IRB members without a doctoral degree were three times as likely to answer at least one RCT question incorrectly (Odds Ratio: 3.00, 95% CI 1.10-8.20). However, even among MD IRB members, 34.1% (14/41) did not achieve a perfect score on the six RCT questions. CONCLUSIONS: This first nationwide study of IRB member knowledge about clinical research study designs found significant knowledge deficits. Knowledge deficits were not limited to laypersons or community advocate members of IRBs, as previously suggested. Akin to widespread ethical training requirements for clinical researchers, IRB members should undergo systematic training on clinical research designs.

Routine diversion of patients with STEMI to high-volume PCI centres: modelling the financial impact on referral hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify possible revenue losses from proposed ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patient diversion policies for small hospitals that lack high-volume percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) capability status (ie, 'STEMI referral hospitals'). BACKGROUND: Negative financial impacts on STEMI referral hospitals have been discussed as an important barrier to implementing regional STEMI bypass/transfer protocols. However, there is little empirical data available that directly quantifies this potential financial impact. METHODS: Using detailed financial charges from Florida hospital discharge data, we examined the potential negative financial impact on 112 STEMI referral hospitals from losing all inpatient STEMI revenue. The main outcome was projected revenue loss (PRL), defined as total annual patient with STEMI charges as a proportion of total annual charges for all patients. We hypothesised that for most community hospitals (>90%), STEMI revenue represented only a small fraction of total revenue (<1%). We further examined the financial impact of the 'worst case' scenario of loss of all acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (ie, chest pain) patients. RESULTS: PRLs were $0.33 for every $100 of patient revenue statewide for STEMI and $1.73 for ACS. At the individual hospital level, the 90th centile PRL was $0.74 for STEMI and $2.77 for ACS. PRLs for STEMI were not greater in rural areas compared with major metropolitan areas. Hospital revenue centres that would be most impacted by loss of patients with STEMI were cardiology procedures and intensive care units. CONCLUSIONS: Loss of patient with STEMI revenues would result in only a small financial impact on STEMI referral hospitals in Florida under proposed STEMI diversion/rapid transfer protocols. However, spillover loss of patients with ACS would increase revenue loss for many hospitals.

Transfer of residents to hospital prior to cardiac death: the influence of nursing home quality and ownership type.

OBJECTIVES: We hypothesised that among nursing home decedents, nursing home for-profit status and poor quality-of-care ratings, as well as patient characteristics, would lower the likelihood of transfer to hospital prior to heart disease death. METHODS: Using death certificates from a large metropolitan area (Tampa Florida Metropolitan Statistical Area) for 1998-2002, we geocoded residential street addresses of heart disease decedents to identify 2172 persons who resided in nursing homes (n=131) at the time of death. We analysed decedent place of death as an indicator of transfer prior to death. Multilevel logistic regression modelling was used for analysis. Cause of death and decedent characteristics were obtained from death certificates. Nursing home characteristics, including state inspector ratings for multiple time points, were obtained from Florida's Agency for Healthcare Administration. RESULTS: Nursing home for-profit status, level of nursing care and quality-of-care ratings were not associated with the likelihood of transfer to hospital prior to heart disease death. Nursing homes >5 miles from a hospital were more likely to transfer decedents, compared with facilities located close to a hospital. Significant predictors of no transfer for nursing home residents were being white, female, older, less educated and widowed/unmarried. CONCLUSIONS: In this study population, contrary to our hypotheses, sociodemographic characteristics of nursing home decedents were more important predictors of no transfer prior to cardiac death than quality rankings or for-profit status of nursing homes.

From hospice to hospital: short-term follow-up study of hospice patient outcomes in a US acute care hospital surveillance system.

OBJECTIVES: In the USA, there is little systematic evidence about the real-world trajectories of patient medical care after hospice enrolment. The objective of this study was to analyse predictors of the length of stay for hospice patients who were admitted to hospital in a retrospective analysis of the mandatorily reported hospital discharge data. SETTING: All acute-care hospitals in Florida during 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2012. PARTICIPANTS: All patients with source of admission coded as 'hospice' (n=2674). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The length of stay and discharge status: (1) died in hospital; (2) discharged back to hospice; (3) discharged to another healthcare facility; and (4) discharged home. RESULTS: Patients were elderly (median age=81) with a high burden of disease. Almost half died (46%), while the majority of survivors were discharged to hospice (80% of survivors, 44% of total). A minority went to a healthcare facility (5.6%) or to home (5.2%). Only 9.2% received any procedure. Respiratory services were received by 29.4% and 16.8% were admitted to the intensive care unit. The median length of stay was 1 day for those who died. In an adjusted survival model, discharge to a healthcare facility resulted in a 74% longer hospital stay compared with discharge to hospice (event time ratio (ETR)=1.74, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.97 p<0.0001), with 61% longer hospital stays among patients discharged home (ETR=1.61, 95% CI 1.39 to 1.86 p<0.0001). Total financial charges for all patients exceeded $25 million; 10% of patients who appeared to exit hospice incurred 32% of the charges. CONCLUSIONS: Our results raise significant questions about the ethics and pragmatics of end-of-life medical care, and the intentions and scope of hospices in the USA. Future studies should incorporate prospective linkage of subjective patient-centred data and objective healthcare encounter data.

Dementia: a barrier to receiving percutaneous coronary intervention for elderly patients with ST-elevated myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is the first line of treatment for ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI). This study evaluates the role of dementia in diagnostic cardiac catheterization (to receive PCI) in STEMI patients ≥65 years old admitted to high annual volume PCI hospitals. METHODS: Participants were registered in Florida's comprehensive inpatient surveillance system for the years 2006-2007 with principal diagnosis of STEMI. Dementia was defined using ICD-9 codes for presenile, senile, and Alzheimer's type dementia. RESULTS: Data from 8331 STEMI patients were used. Of these, 77.2% were catheterized, 67.2% received PCI, and 9.3% had coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). The mean age of the cohort was 76.3 years (SD 7.8 years.); with 43.3% female, 83.4% white, 4.6% black, and 12% Hispanic/other. Of the 248 (3%) patients with dementia, 42% were catheterized. After adjustment for age, gender, and race/ethnicity, patients with dementia were less likely to be catheterized (RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.30-0.50) than non-demented patients. However, among patients who were catheterized, there was no difference in the use of PCI or CABG for patients with versus without dementia (p = 0.56). Of those with dementia, being older and arriving to the hospital in the afternoon were associated with lower likelihood of being catheterized (RR 0.08, 95% CI 0.02-0.28, and RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.10-0.88, respectively). However, having hyperlipidemia increased the probability of catheterization (RR 3.60, 95% CI 1.86-6.98). CONCLUSION: ST-elevated myocardial infarction patients with dementia were much less likely to receive diagnostic cardiac catheterization, thereby limiting the possibility for receiving optimal care including PCI or CABG.

De Facto regionalization of care for ST-elevation myocardial infarction in Florida, 2001-2009.

ACC/AHA guidelines recommend STEMI patients receive percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at high volume hospitals performing ≥400 procedures/year. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in the organization and implementation of care for STEMI patients in Florida. We assessed trends and predictors of STEMI patients first hospitalized at high PCI volume hospitals in Florida from 2001-2009. This is the first study to examine statewide trends in hospital admission for all STEMI patients. We classified Florida hospitals by PCI volume (high, medium, low, non-PCI) for each quarter from January, 2001 through June, 2009. Using hospital discharge data, we determined the percent of STEMI patients who went to each type of hospital and analyzed multiple predictors. From 2001-2009 the proportion of STEMI patients first hospitalized at high PCI volume hospitals rose from 62.4 to 89.7%, while admissions to non-PCI hospitals declined from 31% to 4.9%. Persistent barriers to high PCI volume hospital admission were age ≥85 years (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.50-0.62), female gender (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.79-0.91), and residence in a major metropolitan county. Through the efforts of local coalitions throughout Florida, by 2009 almost 90% of Florida STEMI patients were first admitted to high PCI volume hospitals. Greater hospital competition may explain lower admission rates to high PCI volume hospitals in major metropolitan counties. The age and gender disadvantage we observed requires further research to determine potential causes.

Spatial clustering of non-transported cardiac decedents: the results of a point pattern analysis and an inquiry into social environmental correlates.

BACKGROUND: People who die from heart disease at home before any attempt at transport has been made may represent missed opportunities for life-saving medical intervention. In this study, we undertook a point-pattern spatial analysis of heart disease deaths occurring before transport in a large metropolitan area to determine whether there was spatial clustering of non-transported decedents and whether there were significant differences between the clusters of non-transported cardiac decedents and the clusters of transported cardiac decedents in terms of average travel distances to nearest hospital and area socioeconomic characteristics. These analyses were adjusted for individual predictors of transport status. METHODS: We obtained transport status from the place of death variable on the death certificate. We geocoded heart disease decedents to residential street addresses using a rigorous, multistep process with 97% success. Our final study population consisted of 11,485 adults aged 25-74 years who resided in a large metropolitan area in west-central Florida and died from heart disease during 1998-2002. We conducted a kernel density analysis to identify clusters of the residential locations of cardiac decedents where there was a statistically significant excess probability of being either transported or not transported prior to death; we controlled for individual-level covariates using logistic regression-derived probability estimates. RESULTS: The majority of heart disease decedents were married (53.4%), male (66.4%), white (85.6%), and aged 65-74 years at the time of death (54.7%), and a slight majority were transported prior to death (57.7%). After adjustment for individual predictors, 21 geographic clusters of non-transported heart disease decedents were observed. Contrary to our hypothesis, clusters of non-transported decedents were slightly closer to hospitals than clusters of transported decedents. The social environmental characteristics of clusters varied in the expected direction, with lower socioeconomic and household resources in the clusters of non-transported heart disease deaths. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that in this large metropolitan area unfavorable household and neighborhood resources played a larger role than distance to hospital with regard to transport status of cardiac patients; more research is needed in different geographic areas of the United States and in other industrialized nations.

Transfer travel times for primary percutaneous coronary intervention from low-volume and non-percutaneous coronary intervention-capable hospitals to high-volume centers in Florida.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Current guidelines recommend that ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients receive percutaneous coronary intervention less than or equal to 90 minutes from first medical contact, preferably at high-volume percutaneous coronary intervention centers (≥400 percutaneous coronary interventions annually). Because many patients present to low-volume or non-percutaneous coronary intervention-capable STEMI referral hospitals, timely percutaneous coronary intervention treatment requires effective transfer systems, which include interfacility transport times of less than 30 minutes. We investigate the geographic feasibility of achieving timely interfacility transport from STEMI referral hospitals to percutaneous coronary intervention hospitals in Florida. METHODS: Using 2006 Florida hospital discharge data, we calculated driving times between STEMI referral hospitals and the nearest medium-/high-volume percutaneous coronary intervention centers. We plotted transfer travel time cumulative proportion survival curves for hospitals and patients to assess the feasibility of transfer within 30 minutes to higher-volume facilities. Differences by geographic location (rural versus urban) and patient race/ethnicity were examined. RESULTS: In 2006, 77% of STEMI referral hospitals had transfer travel times within 30 minutes; 90th percentile for interhospital driving time was 56 minutes. For patients at STEMI referral hospitals, 85.6% were at facilities within a 30-minute drive of a high-/medium-volume percutaneous coronary intervention center; 90th percentile was 31 minutes. We found marked rural/urban disparities, with longer average driving times for patients in rural and small metropolitan counties. Significant racial/ethnic disparities in transfer travel times were not observed, although 90th percentile driving times were highest for blacks. CONCLUSION: Driving times do not pose a major geographic barrier to transfer of STEMI patients in Florida. A majority of STEMI patients could be transferred from STEMI referral hospitals to high-volume percutaneous coronary intervention centers within 30 minutes.

A multilevel analysis of absence of transport to a hospital before premature cardiac death.

INTRODUCTION: Prompt transportation to a hospital and aggressive medical treatment can often prevent acute cardiac events from becoming fatal. Consequently, lack of transport before death may represent lost opportunities for life-saving interventions. We investigated the effect of individual characteristics (age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and marital status) and small-area factors (population density and social cohesion) on the probability of premature cardiac decedents dying without transport to a hospital. METHODS: We analyzed death data for adults aged 25 to 69 years who resided in the Tampa, Florida, metropolitan statistical area and died from an acute cardiac event from 1998 through 2002 (N = 2,570). Geocoding of decedent addresses allowed the use of multilevel (hierarchical) logistic regression models for analysis. RESULTS: The strongest predictor of dying without transport was being unmarried (odds ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-2.52, P < .001). There was no effect of education; however, white race was modestly predictive of dying without transport. Younger decedent age was a strong predictor. Multilevel statistical modeling revealed that less than 1% of the variance in our data was found at the small-area level. CONCLUSION: Results contradicted our hypothesis that small-area characteristics would increase the probability of cardiac patients receiving transport before death. Instead we found that being unmarried, a proxy of living alone and perhaps low social support, was the most important predictor of people who died from a cardiac event dying without transport to a hospital.

Percutaneous coronary intervention, comorbidities, and mortality among emergency department-admitted ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients in Florida.

BACKGROUND: Risk of mortality following an ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) can be significantly reduced by prompt percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). National guidelines specify primary PCI as the preferred recommended treatment for STEMI. In this study, we examined same-day PCI as an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality, after adjustment for comorbidities, other patient factors, and hospital PCI-volume using unselected surveillance data from Florida. METHODS: We analyzed hospital discharge data for adults, 18+ years old, with a primary diagnosis of STEMI who were admitted to PCI-capable hospitals through the emergency department during 2001-2005 (n = 43,849). Hierarchical (multilevel) logistic regression models were used for analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 4,143 STEMI patients (9.4%) did not survive to hospital discharge. In late 2005, the in-hospital mortality rates were 1.9% for those who received same-day PCI versus 13.0% for those who did not. After adjustment for multiple patient factors, same-day PCI was a significant predictor of in-hospital survival with a strong protective effect (adjusted OR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.31-0.38 P < 0.0001). Restriction of the analysis to those patients who survived the first day of admission did not appreciably change this result (adjust OR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.33-0.42, P < 0.0001). Hospital PCI-volume did not significantly impact mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: Same-day PCI markedly reduced the risk of in-hospital mortality among STEMI patients after multivariate adjustment. Serious comorbidities and complications, older age, and female gender continued to predict elevated risk of mortality after control for treatment status. Our results provide additional evidence in support of national clinical recommendations and aggressive treatment of STEMI.

Recent racial/ethnic disparities in stroke hospitalizations and outcomes for young adults in Florida, 2001-2006.

BACKGROUND: Black-white disparities in stroke mortality are well documented, but few recent studies have examined racial/ethnic disparities in stroke hospitalizations among young adults. We analyzed recent (2001-2006) trends in stroke hospitalizations and hospital case-fatality for black, Hispanic, and white adults aged 25-49 years in Florida. METHODS: Hospitalization rates were calculated using population estimates from the census, and hospital discharges with a primary diagnosis of stroke (ICD-9-CM 430, 431, 434, 436) (n = 16,317). Multivariate logistic regression modeling was used to examine racial/ethnic disparities in stroke mortality prior to discharge, after adjustment for patient sociodemographics, stroke subtype, risk factors, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Age-adjusted stroke hospitalization rates for blacks were over 3 times higher than rates for whites, while rates for Hispanics were slightly higher than rates for whites. Hemorrhagic strokes were proportionally greater among Hispanics compared with blacks and whites (p < 0.0001). Blacks were most likely to have diagnosed hypertension (62.3%), morbid obesity (10.9%) or drug abuse (13.6%). Whites were most likely to have diagnosed hyperlipidemia (21.0%), alcohol abuse (9.5%), and to be smokers (30.6%). The in-hospital fatality rate for all strokes was highest among blacks (10.0%) compared with whites (9.0%) and Hispanics (8.2%). After adjustment for age, gender, insurance status, and all diagnosed risk factors and comorbidities, the black excess was no longer observed [odds ratio (OR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88-1.15, p = 0.93]. However, the Hispanic advantage in case-fatality was strengthened (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.55-0.79, p < 0.0001). Separate case-fatality analyses for ischemic versus hemorrhagic strokes yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found a strong and persistent black-white disparity in stroke hospitalization rates for young adults. In contrast, rates were similar for Hispanics and whites. Multivariate adjustment explained the 15% excess case-fatality for blacks; the short-term mortality advantage among Hispanics was strengthened after adjustment.

Looking under the Hispanic umbrella: cancer mortality among Cubans, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans and other Hispanics in Florida.

Cancer is the second leading cause of death among Hispanics. Most of the cancer statistics available both at the state and national levels report cancer statistics for all Hispanics as an aggregate group. The goal of this paper is to provide a population-based overview of cancer mortality among Hispanics (Cubans, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans and other Hispanics) in Florida from 1990 to 2000 and to explore the demographic diversity of this growing ethnic group. The study population consisted of Hispanics and White non-Hispanics who died from cancer. Cancer mortality rates and proportion of cancer deaths by type and age at death for the selected racial/ethnic groups were calculated. Our findings indicate that the cancer death rates of the Hispanic subgroups compared favorably with those of White non-Hispanics and that cancer rates often presented for all Hispanics mask important differences between the different ethnic subgroups that fall under the Hispanic umbrella.

Disparities in use of same-day percutaneous coronary intervention for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction in Florida, 2001-2005.

Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is the recommended treatment for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), according to American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association guidelines published in 1999 and 2004. In this study, hospital and patient predictors of same-day primary PCI use for STEMI were examined across the period from 2001 to 2005. Inpatient discharge data for adults aged > or =18 years with primary diagnoses of STEMI who were admitted to Florida hospitals through emergency departments (ED) from 2001 to 2005 (n = 58,308) were analyzed. Hierarchical (multilevel) logistic regression models were used to assess hospital PCI volume and individual characteristics as predictors of same-day PCI use for patients at PCI-capable hospitals. The percentage of ED-admitted patients with a STEMI who received same-day PCI in Florida increased from 20% in early 2001 to 43% in late 2005. At PCI-capable hospitals, 50% of these patients received same-day PCI in late 2005. Patients admitted on weekends, women, patients aged > or = 75 years, patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and patients with end-stage renal disease were all significantly less likely to receive same-day PCI. Black patients were less likely to receive same-day PCI in early 2001 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.7, 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 0.9, p <0.0001), but this racial disparity was not evident by late 2005 (adjusted OR 1.0). Men were more likely than women to receive same-day PCI, with a significant association remaining in late 2005 (adjusted OR 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 1.4, p <0.0001). Throughout the study period, the strongest predictor of same-day PCI was admission to a high- or medium-volume PCI-capable hospital; the adjusted OR in late 2005 was 4.6 (95% confidence interval 2.8 to 7.6, p <0.0001). In conclusion, weekend admission, female gender, older age, and serious co-morbidities were all significant barriers to receiving same-day PCI. Among patients admitted to PCI-capable hospitals, total PCI volume (high or medium vs low) was associated with significantly greater odds of receiving primary PCI, independent of patient sociodemographics, risk factors, or co-morbidities. Statewide, despite an increase in the use of PCI over time, most ED-admitted patients with a STEMI in Florida did not receive primary PCI in late 2005.