Using the near real-time effective reproduction number rt as an early-warning tool for seasonal bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness epidemics.

BACKGROUND: Yearly bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness epidemics in France often involve high morbidity and mortality, which severely impacts healthcare. Epidemics are declared by the French National Institute of Public Health based on syndromic surveillance of primary care and emergency departments (ED), using statistics-based alarms. Although the effective reproduction number (Rt) is used to monitor the dynamics of epidemics, it has never been used as an early warning tool for bronchiolitis or influenza-like illness epidemics in France.We assessed whether Rt is useful for detecting seasonal epidemics by comparing it to the tool currently used (MASS) by epidemiologists to declare epidemic phases. METHODS: We used anonymized ED syndromic data from the Île-de-France region in France from 2010 to 2022. We estimated Rt and compared the indication of accelerated transmission (Rt >1) to the MASS epidemic alarm time points. We computed the difference between those two time points, time to epidemic peak, and the daily cases documented at first indication and peak. RESULTS: Rt provided alarms for influenza-like illness and bronchiolitis epidemics that were, respectively, 6 days (IQR[4;8]) and 64 days (IQR[52;80]) - in median - earlier than the alarms provided by MASS. CONCLUSION: Rt detected earlier signals of bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness epidemics. Using this early-warning indicator in combination with others to declare an annual epidemic could provide opportunities to improve healthcare system readiness.

Increased incidence of congenital hypothyroidism in France from 1982 to 2012: a nationwide multicenter analysis.

PURPOSE: Recent studies have shown an increased incidence of congenital hypothyroidism over the past 2 or 3 decades. The etiology of this change is unknown, but it has been related by several authors to lowering of cutoffs. We sought to determine whether the incidence of congenital hypothyroidism (CH) in France has changed. METHODS: We analyzed data from the nationwide neonatal screening program for CH during the period 1982-2012. We included all children having thyroid-stimulating hormone values above the threshold and for whom diagnosis of CH confirmed by the pediatrician. We estimated multicentric temporal trends in the annual incidence rates adjusted for screening methods for thyroid dysgenesis and eutopic gland. RESULTS: We found 6622 cases of CH (28.0 per 100,000 newborns); 1895 had a eutopic gland, and 4727 had thyroid dysgenesis. The incidence of eutopic glands showed a significant annual average increase of (5.1%; 95% confidence interval: 4.3-5.9) regardless of the screening method or screening center. This increase was confirmed in severe cases (thyroid-stimulating hormone ≥ 50: 2.1%; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-2.9). The incidence of dysgenesis remained constant. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of eutopic glands increased in France, not only in mild forms but also in severe cases.