Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Systematic review with expert consensus on use of extracorporeal hemoadsorption in septic shock: An Indian perspective.

BACKGROUND: Septic shock is a severe form of sepsis characterised by deterioration in circulatory and cellular-metabolic parameters. Despite standard therapy, the outcomes are poor. Newer adjuvant therapy, such as CytoSorb® extracorporeal haemoadsorption device, has been investigated and shown promising outcome. However, there is a lack of some guidance to make clinical decisions on the use of CytoSorb® haemoadsorption as an adjuvant therapy in septic shock in Indian Setting. Therefore, this expert consensus was formulated. AIM: To formulate/establish specific consensus statements on the use of CytoSorb® haemoadsorption treatment based on the best available evidence and contextualised to the Indian scenario. METHODS: We performed a comprehensive literature on CytoSorb® haemoadsorption in sepsis, septic shock in PubMed selecting papers published between January 2011 and March 2023 2021 in English language. The statements for a consensus document were developed based on the summarised literature analysis and identification of knowledge gaps. Using a modified Delphi approach combining evidence appraisal and expert opinion, the following topics related to CytoSorb® in septic shock were addressed: need for adjuvant therapy, initiation timeline, need for Interleukin -6 levels, duration of therapy, change of adsorbers, safety, prerequisite condition, efficacy endpoints and management flowchart. Eleven expert members from critical care, emergency medicine, and the intensive care participated and voted on nine statements and one open-ended question. RESULTS: Eleven expert members from critical care, emergency medicine, and the intensive care participated and voted on nine statements and one open-ended question. All 11 experts in the consensus group (100%) participated in the first, second and third round of voting. After three iterative voting rounds and adapting two statements, consensus was achieved on nine statements out of nine statements. The consensus expert panel also recognised the necessity to form an association or society that can keep a registry regarding the use of CytoSorb® for all indications in the open-ended question (Q10) focusing on "future recommendations for CytoSorb® therapy". CONCLUSION: This Indian perspective consensus statement supports and provides guidance on the use of CytoSorb® haemoadsorption as an adjuvant treatment in patients with septic shock to achieve optimal outcomes.

A Molecular Rheology Dynamics Study on 3D Printing of Liquid Crystal Elastomers.

This work presents a rheological study of a biocompatible and biodegradable liquid crystal elastomer (LCE) ink for three dimensional (3D) printing. These materials have shown that their structural variations have an effect on morphology, mechanical properties, alignment, and their impact on cell response. Within the last decade LCEs are extensively studied as potential printing materials for soft robotics applications, due to the actuation properties that are produced when liquid crystal (LC) moieties are induced through external stimuli. This report utilizes experiments and coarse-grained molecular dynamics to study the macroscopic rheology of LCEs in nonlinear shear flow. Results from the shear flow simulations are in line with the outcomes of these experimental investigations. This work believes the insights from these results can be used to design and print new material with desirable properties necessary for targeted applications.

A Bayesian zero-inflated beta-binomial model for longitudinal data with group-specific changepoints.

Timeline followback (TLFB) is often used in addiction research to monitor recent substance use, such as the number of abstinent days in the past week. TLFB data usually take the form of binomial counts that exhibit overdispersion and zero inflation. Motivated by a 12-week randomized trial evaluating the efficacy of varenicline tartrate for smoking cessation among adolescents, we propose a Bayesian zero-inflated beta-binomial model for the analysis of longitudinal, bounded TLFB data. The model comprises a mixture of a point mass that accounts for zero inflation and a beta-binomial distribution for the number of days abstinent in the past week. Because treatment effects appear to level off during the study, we introduce random changepoints for each study group to reflect group-specific changes in treatment efficacy over time. The model also includes fixed and random effects that capture group- and subject-level slopes before and after the changepoints. Using the model, we can accurately estimate the mean trend for each study group, test whether the groups experience changepoints simultaneously, and identify critical windows of treatment efficacy. For posterior computation, we propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that relies on easily sampled Gibbs and Metropolis-Hastings steps. Our application shows that the varenicline group has a short-term positive effect on abstinence that tapers off after week 9.

The Association of Frailty and Neighborhood Disadvantage with Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalizations in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification and population management strategies are critical for providing effective and equitable care for the growing population of older adults in the USA. Both frailty and neighborhood disadvantage are constructs that independently identify populations with higher healthcare utilization and risk of adverse outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To examine the joint association of these factors on acute healthcare utilization using two pragmatic measures based on structured data available in the electronic health record (EHR). DESIGN: In this retrospective observational study, we used EHR data to identify patients aged ≥ 65 years at Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist on January 1, 2019, who were attributed to affiliated Accountable Care Organizations. Frailty was categorized through an EHR-derived electronic Frailty Index (eFI), while neighborhood disadvantage was quantified through linkage to the area deprivation index (ADI). We used a recurrent time-to-event model within a Cox proportional hazards framework to examine the joint association of eFI and ADI categories with healthcare utilization comprising emergency visits, observation stays, and inpatient hospitalizations over one year of follow-up. KEY RESULTS: We identified a cohort of 47,566 older adults (median age = 73, 60% female, 12% Black). There was an interaction between frailty and area disadvantage (P = 0.023). Each factor was associated with utilization across categories of the other. The magnitude of frailty's association was larger than living in a disadvantaged area. The highest-risk group comprised frail adults living in areas of high disadvantage (HR 3.23, 95% CI 2.99-3.49; P < 0.001). We observed additive effects between frailty and living in areas of mid- (RERI 0.29; 95% CI 0.13-0.45; P < 0.001) and high (RERI 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.83; P < 0.001) neighborhood disadvantage. CONCLUSIONS: Considering both frailty and neighborhood disadvantage may assist healthcare organizations in effectively risk-stratifying vulnerable older adults and informing population management strategies. These constructs can be readily assessed at-scale using routinely collected structured EHR data.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

A universal approach to dual-metal-atom catalytic sites confined in carbon dots for various target reactions.

Here, a molecular-design and carbon dot-confinement coupling strategy through the pyrolysis of bimetallic complex of diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid under low-temperature is proposed as a universal approach to dual-metal-atom sites in carbon dots (DMASs-CDs). CDs as the "carbon islands" could block the migration of DMASs across "islands" to achieve dynamic stability. More than twenty DMASs-CDs with specific compositions of DMASs (pairwise combinations among Fe, Co, Ni, Mn, Zn, Cu, and Mo) have been synthesized successfully. Thereafter, high intrinsic activity is observed for the probe reaction of urea oxidation on NiMn-CDs. In situ and ex situ spectroscopic characterization and first-principle calculations unveil that the synergistic effect in NiMn-DMASs could stretch the urea molecule and weaken the N-H bond, endowing NiMn-CDs with a low energy barrier for urea dehydrogenation. Moreover, DMASs-CDs for various target electrochemical reactions, including but not limited to urea oxidation, are realized by optimizing the specific DMAS combination in CDs.

Combating Dopaminergic Neurodegeneration in Parkinson's Disease through Nanovesicle Technology.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is characterized by dopaminergic neurodegeneration, resulting in dopamine depletion and motor behavior deficits. Since the discovery of L-DOPA, it has been the most prescribed drug for symptomatic relief in PD, whose prolonged use, however, causes undesirable motor fluctuations like dyskinesia and dystonia. Further, therapeutics targeting the pathological hallmarks of PD including α-synuclein aggregation, oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, and autophagy impairment have also been developed, yet PD treatment is a largely unmet success. The inception of the nanovesicle-based drug delivery approach over the past few decades brings add-on advantages to the therapeutic strategies for PD treatment in which nanovesicles (basically phospholipid-containing artificial structures) are used to load and deliver drugs to the target site of the body. The present review narrates the characteristic features of nanovesicles including their blood-brain barrier permeability and ability to reach dopaminergic neurons of the brain and finally discusses the current status of this technology in the treatment of PD. From the review, it becomes evident that with the assistance of nanovesicle technology, the therapeutic efficacy of anti-PD pharmaceuticals, phyto-compounds, as well as that of nucleic acids targeting α-synuclein aggregation gained a significant increment. Furthermore, owing to the multiple drug-carrying abilities of nanovesicles, combination therapy targeting multiple pathogenic events of PD has also found success in preclinical studies and will plausibly lead to effective treatment strategies in the near future.

Tailoring the Atomic-Local Environment of Carbon Nanotube Tips for Selective H2 O2 Electrosynthesis at High Current Densities.

The atomic-local environment of catalytically active sites plays an important role in tuning the activity of carbon-based metal-free electrocatalysts (C-MFECs). However, the rational regulation of the environment is always impeded by synthetic limitations and insufficient understanding of the formation mechanism of the catalytic sites. Herein, the possible cleavage mechanism of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) through the crossing points during ball-milling is proposed, resulting in abundant CNT tips that are more susceptible to be modified by heteroatoms, achieving precise modulation of the atomic environment at the tips. The obtained CNTs with N,S-rich tips (N,S-TCNTs) exhibit a wide potential window of 0.59 V along with H2 O2 selectivity for over 90.0%. Even using air as the O2 source, the flow cell system with N,S-TCNTs catalyst attains high H2 O2 productivity up to 30.37 mol gcat. -1  h-1 @350 mA cm-2 , superior to most reported C-MFECs. From a practical point of view, a solid electrolyzer based on N,S-TCNTs is further employed to realize the in-situ continuous generation of pure H2 O2 solution with high productivity (up to 4.35 mmol cm-2  h-1 @300 mA cm-2 ; over 300 h). The CNTs with functionalized tips hold great promise for practical applications, even beyond H2 O2 generation.

Poverty, Health Care Access Barriers, and Functional Limitations among Individuals with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An 11-Year Cross-sectional Analysis, 2008-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship between poverty, delayed care, unaffordable care, and functional limitations among individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: Using the National Health Interview Survey data, we selected respondents with COPD, aged 40 years and older. The predictor variables were poverty and measures of delayed and unaffordable care. The outcome variable was functional limitations. We performed a survey-weighted multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Respondents classified as poor had three times the odds of functional limitations compared with those classified as not poor. Respondents who reported having measures of delayed care or unaffordable care had two to nine times and two to four times the adjusted odds of functional limitations compared with those who did not report such measures of delayed and unaffordable care, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Poverty and delayed and unaffordable care are associated with functional limitations among individuals with COPD.

Extracorporeal blood purification strategies in sepsis and septic shock: An insight into recent advancements.

BACKGROUND: Despite various therapies to treat sepsis, it is one of the leading causes of mortality in the intensive care unit patients globally. Knowledge about the pathophysiology of sepsis has sparked interest in extracorporeal therapies (ECT) which are intended to balance the dysregulation of the immune system by removing excessive levels of inflammatory mediators. AIM: To review recent data on the use of ECT in sepsis and to assess their effects on various inflammatory and clinical outcomes. METHODS: In this review, an extensive English literature search was conducted from the last two decades to identify the use of ECT in sepsis. A total of 68 articles from peer-reviewed and indexed journals were selected excluding publications with only abstracts. RESULTS: Results showed that ECT techniques such as high-volume hemofiltration, coupled plasma adsorption/filtration, resin or polymer adsorbers, and CytoSorb® are emerging as adjunct therapies to improve hemodynamic stability in sepsis. CytoSorb® has the most published data in regard to the use in the field of septic shock with reports on improved survival rates and lowered sequential organ failure assessment scores, lactate levels, total leucocyte count, platelet count, interleukin- IL-6, IL-10, and TNF levels. CONCLUSION: Clinical acceptance of ECT in sepsis and septic shock is currently still limited due to a lack of large random clinical trials. In addition to patient-tailored therapies, future research developments with therapies targeting the cellular level of the immune response are expected.

The role of oxygen-vacancy in bifunctional indium oxyhydroxide catalysts for electrochemical coupling of biomass valorization with CO2 conversion.

Electrochemical coupling of biomass valorization with carbon dioxide (CO2) conversion provides a promising approach to generate value-added chemicals on both sides of the electrolyzer. Herein, oxygen-vacancy-rich indium oxyhydroxide (InOOH-OV) is developed as a bifunctional catalyst for CO2 reduction to formate and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural electrooxidation to 2,5-furandicarboxylic acid with faradaic efficiencies for both over 90.0% at optimized potentials. Atomic-scale electron microscopy images and density functional theory calculations reveal that the introduction of oxygen vacancy sites causes lattice distortion and charge redistribution. Operando Raman spectra indicate oxygen vacancies could protect the InOOH-OV from being further reduced during CO2 conversion and increase the adsorption competitiveness for 5-hydroxymethylfurfural over hydroxide ions in alkaline electrolytes, making InOOH-OV a main-group p-block metal oxide electrocatalyst with bifunctional activities. Based on the catalytic performance of InOOH-OV, a pH-asymmetric integrated cell is fabricated by combining the CO2 reduction and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural oxidation together in a single electrochemical cell to produce 2,5-furandicarboxylic acid and formate with high yields (both around 90.0%), providing a promising approach to generate valuable commodity chemicals simultaneously on both electrodes.

Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

The COVID-19 Pandemic, Rising Inflation, and Their Influence on Dining Out Frequency and Spending.

BACKGROUND: High intake of food away from home is associated with poor diet quality. This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic period and Food Away from Home (FAFH) inflation rate fluctuations influenced dining out behaviors. METHODS: Approximately 2800 individuals in Texas reported household weekly dining out frequency and spending. Responses completed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (2019 to early 2020) were compared to the post-COVID-19 period (2021 through mid-2022). Multivariate analysis with interaction terms was used to test study hypotheses. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: From the COVID-19 period (before vs. after), the unadjusted frequency of dining out increased from 3.4 times per week to 3.5 times per week, while the amount spent on dining out increased from $63.90 to $82.20. Once the relationship between dining out (frequency and spending) was adjusted for FAFH interest rate and sociodemographic factors, an increase in dining out frequency post-COVID-19 remained significant. However, the unadjusted increase in dining out spending did not remain significant. Further research to understand the demand for dining out post-pandemic is warranted.

Traversing through the cell signaling pathways of neuroprotection by betanin: therapeutic relevance to Alzheimer's Disease and Parkinson's Disease.

Modulation of cell signaling pathways is the key area of research towards the treatment of neurodegenerative disorders. Altered Nrf2-Keap1-ARE (Nuclear factor erythroid-2-related factor 2-Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1-Antioxidant responsive element) and SIRT1 (Sirtuin 1) cell signaling pathways are considered to play major role in the etiology and pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD). Strikingly, betanin, a betanidin 5-O-ß-D-glucoside compound is reported to show commendable anti-oxidative, anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic effects in several disease studies including AD and PD. The present review discusses the pre-clinical studies demonstrating the neuroprotective effects of betanin by virtue of its potential to ameliorate oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, abnormal protein aggregation and cell death. It highlights the direct linkage between the neuroprotective abilities of betanin and upregulation of the Nrf2-Keap1-ARE and SIRT1 signaling pathways. The review further hypothesizes the involvement of the betanin-Nrf2-ARE route in the inhibition of beta-amyloid aggregation through beta-site amyloid precursor protein cleaving enzyme 1 (BACE1), one of the pivotal hallmarks of AD. The present review hereby for the first time elaborately discusses the reported neuroprotective abilities of betanin and decodes the Nrf2 and SIRT1 modulating potential of betanin as a primary mechanism of action behind, hence highlighting it as a novel drug candidate for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases in the near future.

Road environment characteristics and fatal crash injury during the rush and non-rush hour periods in the U.S: Model testing and cluster analysis.

This study aims to assess the relationship between county-level fatal crash injuries and road environmental characteristics at all times of the day and during the rush and non-rush hour periods. We merged eleven-year (2010 - 2020) data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. The outcome variable was the county-level fatal crash injury counts. The predictor variables were measures of road types, junction types and work zone, and weather types. We tested the predictiveness of two nested negative binomial models and adjudged that a nested spatial negative binomial regression model outperformed the non-spatial negative binomial model. The median county crash mortality rates at all times of the day and during the rush and non-rush hour periods were 18.4, 7.7, and 10.4 per 100,000 population, respectively. Fatal crash injury rate ratios were significantly elevated on interstates and highways at all times of the day - rush and non-rush hour periods inclusive. Intersections, driveways, and ramps on highways were associated with elevated fatal crash injury rate ratios. Clusters of high fatal crash injury rates were observed in counties located in Montana, Nevada, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Nevada. The built and natural road environment factors are associated with county-level fatal crash injuries during the rush and non-rush hour periods. Understanding the association of road environment characteristics and the cluster distribution of fatal crash injuries may inform areas in need of focused intervention.

Factors that influence time to prosthesis receipt after lower limb amputation: A Cox proportional hazard model regression.

BACKGROUND: Early mobility, functional independence, and ambulation are associated benefits after lower limb amputation (LLA), whereas an increased risk of clinical complications is associated with no prosthesis. OBJECTIVE: To describe time to prosthesis receipt after amputation and to assess the impact of patient demographic and health factors on the rate of prosthesis receipt within 12 months post LLA. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort analysis using commercial administrative claims data. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards models were applied to assess time to prosthesis receipt. SETTING: Watson/Truven administrative database 2014-2016. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 18-64 years with LLA who maintained their current insurance enrollment for 12 months after amputation. INTERVENTIONS: Independent variables included diabetes/vascular disease status, amputation level, age, gender, and region. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prosthesis receipt was defined based on the presence of codes billed for prosthesis services. Time was measured in days from date of amputation surgery. RESULTS: Among the sample, 510 individuals maintained insurance enrollment for 12 months after amputation, of which 443 individuals received a prosthesis within that period (79% below knee and 21% above knee). The adjusted average rate of time to prosthesis receipt was 138 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 113-185) days. Individuals with diabetes/vascular disease were 22% (hazard ratio: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.02-1.49) more likely to receive a prosthesis earlier than individuals without diabetes/vascular disease and women received a prosthesis later than men at 141 (95% CI: 126-162) days versus 106 (95% CI: 96-119) days, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study expands the understanding of factors that influence the likelihood of receiving a prosthesis along with the timing of prosthesis receipt after LLA among commercially insured adults. At least half of this sample received a prosthesis within 5 months or less. Disparities in timing and access to a prosthesis based on amputation level and gender were noted; future efforts are needed to address these issues.

Stability and Falls Evaluations in AMPutees (SAFE-AMP 2): Reduced functional mobility is associated with a history of injurious falls in lower limb prosthesis users.

BACKGROUND: Injurious falls have a high cost and economic impact on an individual and the health system. Several studies have assessed performance-based functional mobility in lower limb prosthesis (LLP) users and fall risk including fall history. However, limited data exist regarding the relationship between functional mobility and a history of injurious falls in individuals who use a LLP. Such information could inform clinical practice and decision making from prosthesis design to policy. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with a history of injurious falls among LLP users using a clinical outcomes database. METHODS: Retrospective (2016-2018) observational study. Logistic regression applied. RESULTS: A final sample of 12,044 LLP users was included for analysis. Within the sample, 1,529 individuals reported a history of an injurious fall within the previous 6 months. Self-reported functional mobility was stratified into low, middle, and high levels: differences were found between levels for history of an injurious fall. The lowest mobility level was associated with 2.29 higher odds of a history of an injurious fall (95% CI: 1.96-2.69) indicating a potentially greater serious fall risk compared to those with higher mobility levels while controlling for covariates (sex, cause of amputation and level of amputation). CONCLUSION(S): Self-reported functional mobility was associated with a history of injurious falls in LLP users. The Prosthetic Limb Users Survey of Mobility is an accessible tool that prosthetists could use to identify individuals with a high risk of falls; this can inform care planning. Rehabilitation plans and prosthesis designs that target LLP users who report low functional mobility may positively impact health outcomes.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

Simulating and Forecasting the COVID-19 Spread in a U.S. Metropolitan Region with a Spatial SEIR Model.

The global COVID-19 pandemic has taken a heavy toll on health, social, and economic costs since the end of 2019. Predicting the spread of a pandemic is essential to developing effective intervention policies. Since the beginning of this pandemic, many models have been developed to predict its pathways. However, the majority of these models assume homogeneous dynamics over the geographic space, while the pandemic exhibits substantial spatial heterogeneity. In addition, spatial interaction among territorial entities and variations in their magnitude impact the pandemic dynamics. In this study, we used a spatial extension of the SEIR-type epidemiological model to simulate and predict the 4-week number of COVID-19 cases in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), USA. We incorporated a variety of covariates, including mobility, pharmaceutical, and non-pharmaceutical interventions, demographics, and weather data to improve the model's predictive performance. We predicted the number of COVID-19 cases for up to four weeks in the 10 counties of the studied MSA simultaneously over the time period 29 March 2020 to 13 March 2021, and compared the results with the reported number of cases using the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) metric. Our results highlight the importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial interactions among locations in COVID-19 pandemic modeling.