Identification and evaluation of epidemic prediction and forecasting reporting guidelines: A systematic review and a call for action.

INTRODUCTION: High quality epidemic forecasting and prediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and prediction publications. METHODS: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators from US Government and academic sectors. RESULTS: A literature database search through May 26, 2019, identified 1467 publications (MEDLINE n = 584, EMBASE n = 883), and a grey-literature review identified a further 407 publications, yielding a total 1777 unique publications. A paired-reviewer system screened in 25 potentially eligible publications, of which two were ultimately deemed eligible. A qualitative review of these two published reporting guidelines indicated that neither were specific for epidemic forecasting and prediction, although they described reporting items which may be relevant to epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review confirms that no specific guidelines have been published to standardize the reporting of epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. These findings underscore the need to develop such reporting guidelines in order to improve the transparency, quality and implementation of epidemic forecasting and prediction research in operational public health.

Ethics, Human Use, and the Department of Defense Serum Repository.

The Department of Defense Serum Repository (DoDSR) contains a growing archive of sera from service members collected to perform medical surveillance, clinical diagnosis, and epidemiologic studies to identify, prevent, and control diseases associated with military service. The specimens are a mandatory collection under DoD and U.S. regulations and do not include informed consent for uses beyond force health protection. Any use of the specimens for research requires deidentification of the samples and must be approved by Institutional Review Boards. However, as expansion of the DoDSR is contemplated, ethical considerations of sample collection, storage, and use must be carefully reconsidered. Other similar programs for research use of specimens collected for public health purpose are also undergoing similar reviews. It is recommended that at a minimum, service members are informed of the potential storage and use of their specimens and are allowed to opt out of additional use, or a broad informed consent is provided. The DoDSR provides a tremendous resource to the DoD and global health community, and to ensure its continued existence and improvement, the DoD must stay consistent with all principles of research ethics.

Using Social Media for Actionable Disease Surveillance and Outbreak Management: A Systematic Literature Review.

OBJECTIVE: Research studies show that social media may be valuable tools in the disease surveillance toolkit used for improving public health professionals' ability to detect disease outbreaks faster than traditional methods and to enhance outbreak response. A social media work group, consisting of surveillance practitioners, academic researchers, and other subject matter experts convened by the International Society for Disease Surveillance, conducted a systematic primary literature review using the PRISMA framework to identify research, published through February 2013, answering either of the following questions: Can social media be integrated into disease surveillance practice and outbreak management to support and improve public health?Can social media be used to effectively target populations, specifically vulnerable populations, to test an intervention and interact with a community to improve health outcomes?Examples of social media included are Facebook, MySpace, microblogs (e.g., Twitter), blogs, and discussion forums. For Question 1, 33 manuscripts were identified, starting in 2009 with topics on Influenza-like Illnesses (n = 15), Infectious Diseases (n = 6), Non-infectious Diseases (n = 4), Medication and Vaccines (n = 3), and Other (n = 5). For Question 2, 32 manuscripts were identified, the first in 2000 with topics on Health Risk Behaviors (n = 10), Infectious Diseases (n = 3), Non-infectious Diseases (n = 9), and Other (n = 10). CONCLUSIONS: The literature on the use of social media to support public health practice has identified many gaps and biases in current knowledge. Despite the potential for success identified in exploratory studies, there are limited studies on interventions and little use of social media in practice. However, information gleaned from the articles demonstrates the effectiveness of social media in supporting and improving public health and in identifying target populations for intervention. A primary recommendation resulting from the review is to identify opportunities that enable public health professionals to integrate social media analytics into disease surveillance and outbreak management practice.

Ebola policies that hinder epidemic response by limiting scientific discourse.

There is an unprecedented epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in west Africa. There has been a strong response from dedicated health professionals. However, there have also been irrational and fear-based responses that have contributed to misallocation of resources, stigma, and deincentivizing volunteers to combat Ebola at its source. Recently, the State of Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals issued a ban on those coming from affected countries wishing to attend the annual meetings of American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene and the American Public Health Association, both of which were held in New Orleans. We argue against such policies, question evidence and motivations, and discuss their practical and ethical implications in hampering effective responses to EVD by the scientific community. We aim to shed light on this issue and its implications for the future of public health interventions, reflect on the responsibility of health providers and professional societies as advocates for patients and the public health, and call for health professionals and societies to work to challenge inappropriate political responses to public health crises.

Evidence of West Nile virus infection in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Acute febrile illness is common among those seeking medical care and is frequently treated empirically with the underlying illness remaining undiagnosed in resource-poor countries. A febrile illness study was conducted 2009-2010 to identify known and unknown pathogens circulating in Nepal. METHOD: Study methods included diagnostic testing and preliminary ELISA screening of acute and convalescent samples for diseases both known and unknown to be circulating in Nepal, including West Nile virus (WNV). The molecular assays including Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR), Sanger sequencing and ultra deep sequencing on MiSeq Illumina Platform were conducted to further confirm the presence of WNV. RESULTS: The study enrolled 2,046 patients presenting undifferentiated febrile illness with unknown etiology. Sera from 14 out of 2,046 patients were tested positive for west nile virus (WNV) by nested Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR). Only two out of 14 cases were confirmed for the presence of WNV by sequencing and identified as WNV lineage 1 phylogentically. The two patients were adult males with fever and no neurological symptoms from Kathmandu and Bharatpur, Nepal. CONCLUSION: Two out of 2,046 serum samples contained fragments of WNV genome resembling WNV lineage 1, which is evidence of the continued spread of WNV which should be considered a possible illness cause in Nepal.

A review of evaluations of electronic event-based biosurveillance systems.

Electronic event-based biosurveillance systems (EEBS's) that use near real-time information from the internet are an increasingly important source of epidemiologic intelligence. However, there has not been a systematic assessment of EEBS evaluations, which could identify key uncertainties about current systems and guide EEBS development to most effectively exploit web-based information for biosurveillance. To conduct this assessment, we searched PubMed and Google Scholar to identify peer-reviewed evaluations of EEBS's. We included EEBS's that use publicly available internet information sources, cover events that are relevant to human health, and have global scope. To assess the publications using a common framework, we constructed a list of 17 EEBS attributes from published guidelines for evaluating health surveillance systems. We identified 11 EEBS's and 20 evaluations of these EEBS's. The number of published evaluations per EEBS ranged from 1 (Gen-Db, GODsN, MiTAP) to 8 (GPHIN, HealthMap). The median number of evaluation variables assessed per EEBS was 8 (range, 3-15). Ten published evaluations contained quantitative assessments of at least one key variable. No evaluations examined usefulness by identifying specific public health decisions, actions, or outcomes resulting from EEBS outputs. Future EEBS assessments should identify and discuss critical indicators of public health utility, especially the impact of EEBS's on public health response.

Association of temperature and historical dynamics of malaria in the Republic of Korea, including reemergence in 1993.

Plasmodium vivax malaria reemerged in the Republic of Korea in 1993 after it had been declared malaria free in 1979. Malaria rapidly increased and peaked in 2000 with 4,142 cases with lower but variable numbers of cases reported through 2011. We examined the association of regional climate trends over the Korean Peninsula relative to malaria cases in U.S. military and Republic of Korea soldiers, veterans, and civilians from 1950 to 2011. Temperatures and anomaly trends in air temperature associated with satellite remotely sensed outgoing long-wave radiation were used to observe temporal changes. These changes, particularly increasing air temperatures, in combination with moderate rains throughout the malaria season, and distribution of malaria vectors, likely supported the 1993 reemergence and peaks in malaria incidence that occurred through 2011 by accelerating the rate of parasite development in mosquitoes and increased numbers as a result of an expansion of larval habitat, thereby increasing the vectorial capacity of Anopheles vectors. High malaria rates associated with a favorable climate were similarly observed during the Korean War. These findings support the need for increased investigations into malaria predictive models using climate-related variables.

Combining surveillance systems: effective merging of U.S. Veteran and military health data.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and Department of Defense (DoD) had more than 18 million healthcare beneficiaries in 2011. Both Departments conduct individual surveillance for disease events and health threats. METHODS: We performed joint and separate analyses of VA and DoD outpatient visit data from October 2006 through September 2010 to demonstrate geographic and demographic coverage, timeliness of influenza epidemic awareness, and impact on spatial cluster detection achieved from a joint VA and DoD biosurveillance platform. RESULTS: Although VA coverage is greater, DoD visit volume is comparable or greater. Detection of outbreaks was better in DoD data for 58% and 75% of geographic areas surveyed for seasonal and pandemic influenza, respectively, and better in VA data for 34% and 15%. The VA system tended to alert earlier with a typical H3N2 seasonal influenza affecting older patients, and the DoD performed better during the H1N1 pandemic which affected younger patients more than normal influenza seasons. Retrospective analysis of known outbreaks demonstrated clustering evidence found in separate DoD and VA runs, which persisted with combined data sets. CONCLUSION: The analyses demonstrate two complementary surveillance systems with evident benefits for the national health picture. Relative timeliness of reporting could be improved in 92% of geographic areas with access to both systems, and more information provided in areas where only one type of facility exists. Combining DoD and VA data enhances geographic cluster detection capability without loss of sensitivity to events isolated in either population and has a manageable effect on customary alert rates.

Applications of PCR (real-time and MassTag) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in diagnosis of respiratory infections and diarrheal illness among deployed U.S. military personnel during exercise Balikatan 2009, Philippines.

Laboratory-based surveillance for diarrheal and respiratory illness was conducted at the 2009 Republic of the Philippines-United States Balikatan exercise to determine the presence of specific pathogens endemic in the locations where the military exercises were conducted. Ten stool and 6 respiratory specimens were obtained from individuals meeting case definitions for diarrhea or respiratory illness. Stool specimens were frozen in dry ice and remotely tested using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for Rotavirus, Astrovirus, Adenovirus, Entamoeba histolytica, Giardia, and Cryptosporidium and polymerase chain reaction for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Campylobacter, Shigella, Vibrio, Salmonella, and Norovirus. Eight (4 for Campylobacter jejuni, 2 for Campylobacter coli, 1 for Norovirus genogroup II, and 1 for both Campylobacter coli and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli) of 10 samples were positive for at least 1 enteric pathogen. MassTag polymerase chain reaction for influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus groups A and B, human coronavirus-229E and human coronavirus-OC43, human metapneumovirus, enterovirus, human parainfluenza viruses 2,3, and 4a, human adenovirus, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Legionella pneumonia, and Mycoplasma pneumonia was done on respiratory specimens. Out of 6 samples, 3 tested positive for H. influenzae; 1 tested positive for both H. influenzae and human parainfluenza virus 3; and 2 tested negative. Laboratory-based surveillance can be useful in determining etiologies of diarrheal and respiratory illness of deployed military personnel.

Serological response to Bartonella species in febrile patients from Nepal.

The Bartonella-associated illnesses are spread world-wide and involve a broad spectrum of signs and symptoms in humans. Several Bartonella species have been shown to be responsible for cases of febrile illnesses. Little information exists on distribution of Bartonella species and their role in human diseases in Nepal. Our preliminary study, a retrospective serological survey of archived specimens, suggests that Bartonella antibodies are prevalent among febrile patients in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal.

Short report: Genetic diversity of Thottapalayam virus, a Hantavirus harbored by the Asian house shrew (Suncus murinus) in Nepal.

Despite the recent discovery of genetically divergent hantaviruses in shrews of multiple species in widely separated geographic regions, data are unavailable about the genetic diversity and phylogeography of Thottapalayam virus (TPMV), a hantavirus originally isolated from an Asian house shrew (Suncus murinus) captured in southern India more than four decades ago. To bridge this knowledge gap, the S, M, and L segments of hantavirus RNA were amplified by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction from archival lung tissues of Asian house shrews captured in Nepal from January to September 1996. Pair-wise alignment and comparison revealed approximately 80% nucleotide and > 94% amino acid sequence similarity to prototype TPMV. Phylogenetic analyses, generated by maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, showed geographic-specific clustering of TPMV, similar to that observed for rodent- and soricid-borne hantaviruses. These findings confirm that the Asian house shrew is the natural reservoir of TPMV and suggest a long-standing virus-host relationship.

A growing global network's role in outbreak response: AFHSC-GEIS 2008-2009.

A cornerstone of effective disease surveillance programs comprises the early identification of infectious threats and the subsequent rapid response to prevent further spread. Effectively identifying, tracking and responding to these threats is often difficult and requires international cooperation due to the rapidity with which diseases cross national borders and spread throughout the global community as a result of travel and migration by humans and animals. From Oct.1, 2008 to Sept. 30, 2009, the United States Department of Defense's (DoD) Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) identified 76 outbreaks in 53 countries. Emerging infectious disease outbreaks were identified by the global network and included a wide spectrum of support activities in collaboration with host country partners, several of which were in direct support of the World Health Organization's (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). The network also supported military forces around the world affected by the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic of 2009. With IHR (2005) as the guiding framework for action, the AFHSC-GEIS network of international partners and overseas research laboratories continues to develop into a far-reaching system for identifying, analyzing and responding to emerging disease threats.

The AFHSC-Division of GEIS Operations Predictive Surveillance Program: a multidisciplinary approach for the early detection and response to disease outbreaks.

The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System Operations (AFHSC-GEIS) initiated a coordinated, multidisciplinary program to link data sets and information derived from eco-climatic remote sensing activities, ecologic niche modeling, arthropod vector, animal disease-host/reservoir, and human disease surveillance for febrile illnesses, into a predictive surveillance program that generates advisories and alerts on emerging infectious disease outbreaks. The program's ultimate goal is pro-active public health practice through pre-event preparedness, prevention and control, and response decision-making and prioritization. This multidisciplinary program is rooted in over 10 years experience in predictive surveillance for Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Eastern Africa. The AFHSC-GEIS Rift Valley fever project is based on the identification and use of disease-emergence critical detection points as reliable signals for increased outbreak risk. The AFHSC-GEIS predictive surveillance program has formalized the Rift Valley fever project into a structured template for extending predictive surveillance capability to other Department of Defense (DoD)-priority vector- and water-borne, and zoonotic diseases and geographic areas. These include leishmaniasis, malaria, and Crimea-Congo and other viral hemorrhagic fevers in Central Asia and Africa, dengue fever in Asia and the Americas, Japanese encephalitis (JE) and chikungunya fever in Asia, and rickettsial and other tick-borne infections in the U.S., Africa and Asia.

Capacity-building efforts by the AFHSC-GEIS program.

Capacity-building initiatives related to public health are defined as developing laboratory infrastructure, strengthening host-country disease surveillance initiatives, transferring technical expertise and training personnel. These initiatives represented a major piece of the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) contributions to worldwide emerging infectious disease (EID) surveillance and response. Capacity-building initiatives were undertaken with over 80 local and regional Ministries of Health, Agriculture and Defense, as well as other government entities and institutions worldwide. The efforts supported at least 52 national influenza centers and other country-specific influenza, regional and U.S.-based EID reference laboratories (44 civilian, eight military) in 46 countries worldwide. Equally important, reference testing, laboratory infrastructure and equipment support was provided to over 500 field sites in 74 countries worldwide from October 2008 to September 2009. These activities allowed countries to better meet the milestones of implementation of the 2005 International Health Regulations and complemented many initiatives undertaken by other U.S. government agencies, such as the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the U.S. Department of State.

Department of Defense influenza and other respiratory disease surveillance during the 2009 pandemic.

The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) supports and oversees surveillance for emerging infectious diseases, including respiratory diseases, of importance to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). AFHSC-GEIS accomplishes this mission by providing funding and oversight to a global network of partners for respiratory disease surveillance. This report details the system's surveillance activities during 2009, with a focus on efforts in responding to the novel H1N1 Influenza A (A/H1N1) pandemic and contributions to global public health. Active surveillance networks established by AFHSC-GEIS partners resulted in the initial detection of novel A/H1N1 influenza in the U.S. and several other countries, and viruses isolated from these activities were used as seed strains for the 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine. Partners also provided diagnostic laboratory training and capacity building to host nations to assist with the novel A/H1N1 pandemic global response, adapted a Food and Drug Administration-approved assay for use on a ruggedized polymerase chain reaction platform for diagnosing novel A/H1N1 in remote settings, and provided estimates of seasonal vaccine effectiveness against novel A/H1N1 illness. Regular reporting of the system's worldwide surveillance findings to the global public health community enabled leaders to make informed decisions on disease mitigation measures and controls for the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. AFHSC-GEIS's support of a global network contributes to DoD's force health protection, while supporting global public health.

Antimicrobial resistance surveillance in the AFHSC-GEIS network.

International infectious disease surveillance has been conducted by the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense (DoD) for many years and has been consolidated within the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) since 1998. This includes activities that monitor the presence of antimicrobial resistance among pathogens. AFHSC-GEIS partners work within DoD military treatment facilities and collaborate with host-nation civilian and military clinics, hospitals and university systems. The goals of these activities are to foster military force health protection and medical diplomacy. Surveillance activities include both community-acquired and health care-associated infections and have promoted the development of surveillance networks, centers of excellence and referral laboratories. Information technology applications have been utilized increasingly to aid in DoD-wide global surveillance for diseases significant to force health protection and global public health. This section documents the accomplishments and activities of the network through AFHSC-GEIS partners in 2009.