The future burden of type 2 diabetes in Belgium: a microsimulation model.

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the annual burden of type 2 diabetes and related socio-demographic disparities in Belgium until 2030. METHODS: This study utilized a discrete-event transition microsimulation model. A synthetic population was created using 2018 national register data of the Belgian population aged 0-80 years, along with the national representative prevalence of diabetes risk factors obtained from the latest (2018) Belgian Health Interview and Examination Surveys using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) as inputs to the Simulation of Synthetic Complex Data (simPop) model. Mortality information was obtained from the Belgian vital statistics and used to calculate annual death probabilities. From 2018 to 2030, synthetic individuals transitioned annually from health to death, with or without developing type 2 diabetes, as predicted by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, and risk factors were updated via strata-specific transition probabilities. RESULTS: A total of 6722 [95% UI 3421, 11,583] new cases of type 2 diabetes per 100,000 inhabitants are expected between 2018 and 2030 in Belgium, representing a 32.8% and 19.3% increase in T2D prevalence rate and DALYs rate, respectively. While T2D burden remained highest for lower-education subgroups across all three Belgian regions, the highest increases in incidence and prevalence rates by 2030 are observed for women in general, and particularly among Flemish women reporting higher-education levels with a 114.5% and 44.6% increase in prevalence and DALYs rates, respectively. Existing age- and education-related inequalities will remain apparent in 2030 across all three regions. CONCLUSIONS: The projected increase in the burden of T2D in Belgium highlights the urgent need for primary and secondary preventive strategies. While emphasis should be placed on the lower-education groups, it is also crucial to reinforce strategies for people of higher socioeconomic status as the burden of T2D is expected to increase significantly in this population segment.

Quantifying Overlapping Forms of Malnutrition Across Latin America: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of Prevalence Estimates.

Estimating the prevalence of double burden of malnutrition (DBM) is challenging in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region where various DBM typologies (e.g., obesity and stunting) are heterogeneous and estimates are scattered across literature This study aimed to assess the prevalence of DBM typologies in the LAC region. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science to identify studies on the prevalence of DBM published between 1 January, 2000, and 23 January, 2023. Outcomes were the prevalence of the identified DBM typologies at the household, individual, or across life course levels. Random-effect meta-analyses of proportions were used to estimate pooled period prevalence for all outcomes. Heterogeneity was explored using meta-regressions. From 754 records identified, 60 (8%) studies were eligible, with a median of 4379 individuals. Studies reported data from 27 LAC countries collected between 1988 and 2017. Most studies used nationally representative surveys (68%) and scored as low risk of bias (70%). We identified 17 DBM typologies for which 360 estimates were analyzed. The prevalence of the identified DBM typologies ranged between 0% and 24%, with the DBM typology of "adult with overweight and child with anemia" having the highest prevalence (24.3%; 95% CI: 18.8%, 30.2%). The most frequently reported DBM typology was "adult with overweight and child with stunting," with a prevalence of 8.5% (95% CI: 7.7, 9.3). All prevalences carried large heterogeneity (I2>90%), modestly explained by subregions and countries. DBM across the life course could not be estimated owing to insufficient estimates. In conclusion, using available data, our study suggests that the burden of DBM in the LAC region ranges between 0% and 24%. In the most frequent DBM typologies, overweight was a common contributor. Substantial progress can be made in curbing the burden of DBM in the LAC region through strategies addressing excess weight within these population groups. This study was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42023406755.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 patients across epidemic waves in Spain: An unCoVer analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact in population health worldwide, and particularly in people with pre-existing chronic diseases. Early risk identification and stratification is essential to reduce the impact of future outbreaks of pandemic potential. This study aimed to comprehensively examine factors associated with COVID-19 mortality across the pandemic waves in Spain. METHODS: A retrospective study analyzed the characteristics of 13,974 patients admitted to Spanish hospitals due to SARS-CoV-2 infection from 2020-01-28 to 2022-12-31. The demographic and clinical features of patients during hospitalization on each pandemic waves were analyzed. MAIN FINDINGS: The findings highlight the heterogeneity of patient characteristics, comorbidities and outcomes, across the waves. The high prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases (53.9%) among COVID-19 patients emphasizes the importance of controlling these risk factors to prevent severe COVID-19 outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, the study associate hospital mortality with factors such as advanced age and comorbidities. The decline in mortality after the 4th wave indicates potential influences like vaccination, viral adaptation, or improved treatments. Notably, dementia and cancer metastases emerge as critical factors linked to higher mortality, highlighting the importance of addressing these conditions in COVID-19 management and preparing for future challenges.

The impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages on diabetes: a critical review.

The global burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing at an alarming rate, fuelled by the obesity epidemic, with significant associated health and economic consequences and apparent inequalities. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars in diets worldwide and have been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes through a variety of mechanisms, including excess weight. Taxing SSBs has become a promising public health strategy to reduce consumption and mitigate the burden of type 2 diabetes. A substantial body of evidence suggests that SSB taxes lead to increased prices and subsequent reduced consumption, with a potentially greater effect among lower socioeconomic groups. This highlights the potential for tax policies to have an impact on type 2 diabetes and address health inequalities. Evidence from several ongoing SSB tax schemes, including sales and excise taxes, indicates positive effects on improving consumption patterns, and modelling studies point to health gains by averting type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, evidence from empirical evaluation of the impact of SSB tax is scarce. Continued monitoring and the strengthening of evaluation research to develop context-tailored policies are required. In addition, there is a need to implement complementary efforts to amplify the impact of SSB taxation and effectively address the global burden of type 2 diabetes.

Impact of domiciliary administration of NSAIDs on COVID-19 hospital outcomes: an unCoVer analysis.

Background: Effective domiciliary treatment can be useful in the early phase of COVID-19 to limit disease progression, and pressure on hospitals. There are discrepant data on the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim of this study is to evaluate whether the clinical outcome of patients who were hospitalized for COVID-19 is influenced by domiciliary treatment with NSAIDs. Secondary objective was to explore the association between other patient characteristics/therapies and outcome. Methods: A large dataset of COVID-19 patients was created in the context of a European Union-funded project (unCoVer). The primary outcome was explored using a study level random effects meta-analysis for binary (multivariate logistic regression models) outcomes adjusted for selected factors, including demographics and other comorbidities. Results: 218 out of 1,144 patients reported use of NSAIDs before admission. No association between NSAIDs use and clinical outcome was found (unadj. OR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.68-1.38). The model showed an independent upward risk of death with increasing age (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.05-1.07) and male sex (1.36; 95% CI 1.04-1.76). Conclusion: In our study, the domiciliary use of NSAIDs did not show association with clinical outcome in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Older ages and male sex were associated to an increased risk of death.

Understanding the contribution of lifestyle in breast cancer risk prediction: a systematic review of models applicable to Europe.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is a significant health concern among European women, with the highest prevalence rates among all cancers. Existing BC prediction models account for major risks such as hereditary, hormonal and reproductive factors, but research suggests that adherence to a healthy lifestyle can reduce the risk of developing BC to some extent. Understanding the influence and predictive role of lifestyle variables in current risk prediction models could help identify actionable, modifiable, targets among high-risk population groups. PURPOSE: To systematically review population-based BC risk prediction models applicable to European populations and identify lifestyle predictors and their corresponding parameter values for a better understanding of their relative contribution to the prediction of incident BC. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted in PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from January 2000 to August 2021. Risk prediction models were included if (i) developed and/or validated in adult cancer-free women in Europe, (ii) based on easily ascertained information, and (iii) reported models' final predictors. To investigate further the comparability of lifestyle predictors across models, estimates were standardised into risk ratios and visualised using forest plots. RESULTS: From a total of 49 studies, 33 models were developed and 22 different existing models, mostly from Gail (22 studies) and Tyrer-Cuzick and co-workers (12 studies) were validated or modified for European populations. Family history of BC was the most frequently included predictor (31 models), while body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption (26 and 21 models, respectively) were the lifestyle predictors most often included, followed by smoking and physical activity (7 and 6 models respectively). Overall, for lifestyle predictors, their modest predictive contribution was greater for riskier lifestyle levels, though highly variable model estimates across different models. CONCLUSIONS: Given the increasing BC incidence rates in Europe, risk models utilising readily available risk factors could greatly aid in widening the population coverage of screening efforts, while the addition of lifestyle factors could help improving model performance and serve as intervention targets of prevention programmes.

Comparing self-reported health interview survey and pharmacy billing data in determining the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Administrative and health surveys are used in monitoring key health indicators in a population. This study investigated the agreement between self-reported disease status from the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) and pharmaceutical insurance claims extracted from the Belgian Compulsory Health Insurance (BCHI) in ascertaining the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia. METHODS: Linkage was made between the BHIS 2018 and the BCHI 2018, from which chronic condition was ascertained using the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification and defined daily dose. The data sources were compared using estimates of disease prevalence and various measures of agreement and validity. Multivariable logistic regression was performed for each chronic condition to identify the factors associated to the agreement between the two data sources. RESULTS: The prevalence estimates computed from the BCHI and the self-reported disease definition in BHIS, respectively, are 5.8% and 5.9% diabetes cases, 24.6% and 17.6% hypertension cases, and 16.2% and 18.1% of hypercholesterolemia cases. The overall agreement and kappa coefficient between the BCHI and the self-reported disease status is highest for diabetes and is equivalent to 97.6% and 0.80, respectively. The disagreement between the two data sources in ascertaining diabetes is associated with multimorbidity and older age categories. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated the capability of pharmacy billing data in ascertaining and monitoring diabetes in the Belgian population. More studies are needed to assess the applicability of pharmacy claims in ascertaining other chronic conditions and to evaluate the performance of other administrative data such as hospital records containing diagnostic codes.

Prognostic Role of Clinical Features of Moderate Forms of COVID-19 Requiring Hospitalization.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to characterize the clinical features of moderate forms of COVID-19 requiring hospitalization and potentially identify predictors for unfavorable outcomes. METHODS: Pooled anonymized clinical data from 452 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in two regional Romanian respiratory disease centers during the Alpha and Delta variant outbreaks were included in the analysis. RESULTS: Cough and shortness of breath were the most common clinical features; older patients exhibited more fatigue and dyspnea and fewer upper airway-related symptoms such as smell loss or sore throat. The presence of confusion, shortness of breath and age over 60 years were significantly associated with worse outcomes (odds ratios 5.73, 2.08 and 3.29, respectively). CONCLUSION: The clinical picture on admission may have a prognostic role for moderate forms of COVID-19. Clear clinical definitions and developing adequate informational infrastructure allowing complex data sharing and analysis might be useful for fast research response should a similar outbreak occur in the future.

Burden of disease among older adults in Europe-trends in mortality and disability, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand the effects of population ageing on disease burden and explore conditions that drive poor health in later life to prevent or manage these. We examined the development of disease burden and its components for major disease groups among older adults in Europe over the last 30 years. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study, we analyzed burden of disease trends between 1990 and 2019 measured by years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among older adults (65+ years) in Western, Central and Eastern Europe using cause groups for diseases and injuries. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the crude numbers of DALYs for all causes increased substantially among older Western Europeans. In Eastern Europe, the absolute DALYs also increased from 1990 to 2005 but then decreased between 2006 and 2013. However, DALY rates declined for all European regions over time, with large differences in the magnitude by region and gender. Changes in the YLL rate were mainly driven by the contribution of cardiovascular diseases. CONCLUSIONS: This study found an increased overall absolute disease burden among older Europeans between 1990 and 2019. The demographic change that has taken place in Eastern European countries implies a potential problem of directed resource allocation to the health care sector. Furthermore, the findings highlight the potential health gains through directing resources to health promotion and treatment to reduce YLDs and to prevent YLLs, primarily from cardiovascular diseases.

Cardiometabolic deaths attributable to poor diet among Kuwaiti adults.

BACKGROUND: Nutrition transition towards a Western diet is happening in parallel with the rapidly increasing rates of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in Kuwait. The cardiometabolic deaths attributable to poor diet have not been quantified among Kuwaiti adults. METHODS: Using a Comparative Risk Assessment model that incorporated dietary intake data from Kuwait's first national nutrition survey, number of cardiometabolic deaths from the World Health Organization, and estimated associations of diet with cardiometabolic deaths from the Global Burden of Disease project, we estimated the number and proportion of cardiometabolic deaths attributable to suboptimal intake of 10 dietary factors among Kuwaiti adults ages 25+ years, and by population subgroups. FINDINGS: An estimated 1,308 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 1,228-1,485) cardiometabolic deaths were attributed to suboptimal diet, accounting for 64.7% (95% UI = 60.7%-73.4%) of all cardiometabolic deaths in Kuwait in 2009. The low intake of nuts/seeds was associated with the highest estimated number and proportion of cardiometabolic deaths (n = 380, 18.8%), followed by high intake of sodium (n = 256, 12.6%), low intake of fruits (n = 250, 12.4%), low intake of vegetables (n = 236, 11.7%), low intake of whole grains (n = 201, 9.9%), and high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (n = 201, 9.9%). The estimated proportions of cardiometabolic deaths attributable to suboptimal diet were higher in men (67.7%) than women (57.8%) and in younger adults aged 25-34 years (84.5%) than older adults aged ≥55 years (55.6%). CONCLUSION: Suboptimal dietary intake was associated with a very substantial proportion of cardiometabolic deaths among Kuwaiti adults in 2009, with young adults and men experiencing the largest proportion of diet-associated cardiometabolic deaths in Kuwait.

Predicting COVID-19 progression in hospitalized patients in Belgium from a multi-state model.

Objectives: To adopt a multi-state risk prediction model for critical disease/mortality outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 patients using nationwide COVID-19 hospital surveillance data in Belgium. Materials and methods: Information on 44,659 COVID-19 patients hospitalised between March 2020 and June 2021 with complete data on disease outcomes and candidate predictors was used to adopt a multi-state, multivariate Cox model to predict patients' probability of recovery, critical [transfer to intensive care units (ICU)] or fatal outcomes during hospital stay. Results: Median length of hospital stay was 9 days (interquartile range: 5-14). After admission, approximately 82% of the COVID-19 patients were discharged alive, 15% of patients were admitted to ICU, and 15% died in the hospital. The main predictors of an increased probability for recovery were younger age, and to a lesser extent, a lower number of prevalent comorbidities. A patient's transition to ICU or in-hospital death had in common the following predictors: high levels of c-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), reporting lower respiratory complaints and male sex. Additionally predictors for a transfer to ICU included middle-age, obesity and reporting loss of appetite and staying at a university hospital, while advanced age and a higher number of prevalent comorbidities for in-hospital death. After ICU, younger age and low levels of CRP and LDH were the main predictors for recovery, while in-hospital death was predicted by advanced age and concurrent comorbidities. Conclusion: As one of the very few, a multi-state model was adopted to identify key factors predicting COVID-19 progression to critical disease, and recovery or death.

Cardiometabolic Profile and Outcomes in Migrant Populations: A Review of Comparative Evidence from Migrants in Europe in Relation to Their Country of Origin.

BACKGROUND: The potential effect of migration on increasing cardiometabolic risk factors remains partially understood. We aim to synthesize the evidence comparing the burden of diabetes and adiposity of migrating populations in Europe, with that of their country of origin. METHODS: We conducted a scoping literature review. We searched PubMed for studies investigating the effect of migration on diabetes or adiposity outcomes among migrants in countries from the European Union or the United Kingdom compared to the population in the country of origin. Studies were qualitatively synthesized in evidence tables and the demographic characteristics, study design, risk factors investigated, and outcomes were quantitatively summarized using measures of central tendency. FINDINGS: Of 1175 abstracts retrieved, 28 studies were eligible. Most of the studies included migrating populations residing in Western (50%), Northern (39%), and Southern Europe (11%) originating from countries in Africa (46%), Asia (29%), or European overseas (25%) regions of which 85% were classified as low-middle-income countries. Most of the studies (93%) had a cross-sectional design. The median number of individuals in the country of origin was greater [917; IQR: 231-1378] than in the receiving country [249; 150-883]. Thirty-five percent of the studies investigated migration as an independent risk factor, whereas 28% contextualized migration into lifestyle changes. The majority of the studies (57%) reported both diabetes and adiposity outcomes. Within the limited evidence available, controversial results were found as some studies showed poorer outcomes for the migrating populations, while others showed the opposite. CONCLUSION: Studies assessing the impact of migration by comparing migrating populations and the population of origin on diabetes and adiposity outcomes have gained interest. So far, the available evidence is highly heterogeneous to inform public health strategies in the receiving countries. We recommend further research including a more robust methodology and in-depth characterization of the migrant populations.

Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.

Importance: Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID). Objective: To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration. Design, Setting, and Participants: Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022. Exposures: Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age. Results: A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance: This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Improving lifestyle behaviours among women in Kisantu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A protocol of a cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: As the prevalence of obesity among women of reproductive age is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, the burden of lifestyle-related conditions is expected to rise quickly. This study aims to develop and evaluate a multi-component health promotion programme for a healthy lifestyle to ultimately prevent the onset of type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes among adult women in Kisantu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a cluster randomised controlled trial whereby two groups of three healthcare centres each, matched by population size coverage and geographical area, will be randomised to an intervention or a comparison group. Adult women of reproductive age (18-49 years), non-pregnant or first-trimester pregnant, will be recruited from the healthcare centres. 144 women in the intervention centres will follow a 24-month multi-component health promotion programme based on educational and motivational strategies whereas the comparison centres (144 participants) will be limited to a basic educational strategy. The programme will be delivered by trained peer educators and entails individualised education sessions, education and physical activity group activities, and focus groups. Topics of an optimal diet, physical activity, weight management and awareness of type 2 and gestational diabetes will be covered. The primary outcome is the adherence to a healthy lifestyle measured by a validated closed-ended questionnaire and secondary outcomes include anthropometric measurements, clinical parameters, diet diversity and the level of physical activity. Participants from both groups will be assessed at baseline and every 6 months by trained health professionals from the recruiting healthcare centres. Data will be summarised by measures of central tendency for continuous outcomes, and frequency distribution and percentages for categorical data. The primary and secondary outcomes will be quantified using statistical mixed models. ETHICS: This research was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp in Belgium (IRB/RR/AC/137) and the Ethical Committee of the University of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (ESP/CE/130/2021). Any substantial change to the study protocol must be approved by all the bodies that have approved the initial protocol, before being implemented. Also, this journal will be informed regarding any protocol modification. Written informed consent will be required and obtained for all participants. No participant may be enrolled on the study until written informed consent has been obtained. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05039307.

The effectiveness of lifestyle interventions on type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes incidence and cardiometabolic outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from low- and middle-income countries.

Background: As lifestyle modification offers a unique strategy to prevent diabetes, we evaluated the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions in the prevention of type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: We did a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library for randomised controlled trials published in English, Spanish, French, and Portuguese between 1 January 2000 and 15 June 2022, evaluating multi-target and multi-component lifestyle interventions in at-risk populations conducted in LMICs. The main outcomes were incidence of type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes, and indicators of glycaemic control. We assessed the methodological quality of the studies using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Inverse-variance random-effects meta-analyses estimated the overall effect sizes. Sources of heterogeneity and study bias were evaluated. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021279174). Findings: From 14 330 abstracts, 48 (0·3%) studies with 50 interventions were eligible of which 56% were conducted in lower-middle-income countries, 44% in upper-middle, and none in low-income. 54% of the studies were assessed as moderate risk of bias and 14% as high risk. A median of 246 (IQR 137-511) individuals participated in the interventions with a median duration of 6 (3-12) months. Lifestyle interventions decreased the incidence risk ratio of type 2 diabetes by 25% (0·75 [95% CI 0·61 to 0·91]), and reduced the levels of HbA1c by 0·15% [-0·25 to -0·05], fasting plasma glucose by 3·44 mg/dL [-4·72 to -2·17], and 2-hr glucose tolerance by 4·18 mg/dL [-7·35 to -1·02]. No publication bias was suggested for these outcomes. High levels of heterogeneity (I²≥ 81%) were found in most meta-analyses. Exploration using meta-regressions could not identify any explanatory variable, except for fasting glucose for which the quality score of the articles seems to be an effect modifier decreasing slightly the heterogeneity (72%) in the low risk of bias pooled estimate. The effect on gestational diabetes could not be evaluated due to the scarcity of available studies. Interpretation: Comprehensive lifestyle interventions are effective strategies to prevent type 2 diabetes among at-risk populations in LMICs. The heterogeneity identified in our results should be considered when using these interventions to address the onset of type 2 diabetes. Funding: None.

Challenges of data sharing in European Covid-19 projects: A learning opportunity for advancing pandemic preparedness and response.

The COVID-19 pandemic saw a massive investment into collaborative research projects with a focus on producing data to support public health decisions. We relay our direct experience of four projects funded under the Horizon2020 programme, namely ReCoDID, ORCHESTRA, unCoVer and SYNCHROS. The projects provide insight into the complexities of sharing patient level data from observational cohorts. We focus on compliance with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and ethics approvals when sharing data across national borders. We discuss procedures for data mapping; submission of new international codes to standards organisation; federated approach; and centralised data curation. Finally, we put forward recommendations for the development of guidelines for the application of GDPR in case of major public health threats; mandatory standards for data collection in funding frameworks; training and capacity building for data owners; cataloguing of international use of metadata standards; and dedicated funding for identified critical areas.

A retrospective database study of the demographic features and glycemic control of patients with type 2 diabetes in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: The Kin-Antwerp project aimed at improving the quality of care provided to patients with diabetes in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa, including the digitalisation of routine clinical data to improve patients' follow-up. We aim to analyse the data of a study population of Kin-Antwerp to characterise their demographic features, assess their achievement of glycemic target over time, and identify groups requiring prioritised attention. METHODS: We performed a secondary database analysis of routinely collected information from primary care patients with type 2 diabetes followed from 1991 to 2019. Data included demographics (age, sex), anthropometrics (weight, height), clinical parameters (blood pressure, plasma glucose), and anti-diabetic treatments. Achievement of glycemic target, defined as fasting plasma glucose < 126 mg/dL, over time was assessed using a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model. RESULTS: Our study population of patients with type 2 diabetes (N = 8976) comprised a higher proportion of women (67%) and patients between 40 and 65 years old (70.4%). At the first follow-up, most patients were on treatment with insulin (56.5%) and had glycemic levels under the target (79.9%). Women presented more often with obesity (27.4%) and high systolic blood pressure (41.8%) than men (8.6% and 37.0%, respectively). Patients had a median follow-up of 1.8 (interquartile range: 0.5-3.4) years. Overall, the odds of achieving glycemic target increased by 18.4% (odds ratio: 1.184, 95% CI: 1.130 to 1.239; p < 0.001) per year of follow-up. Stratified analyses suggested that the odds of achieving glycemic control over time increased among older patients (> 40 years), but not among younger patients (< 40 years). CONCLUSION: In our study population, an overall poor glycemic control was observed albeit with a modest improvement in the achievement of glycemic target throughout patients' follow-up. Younger patients may benefit from prioritised attention to achieve glycemic targets. Based on the information provided by the database, continue monitoring and improvement of the project Kin-Antwerp is recommended. Introducing further efforts to improve type 2 diabetes management should include robust glycemia-monitoring tools and haemoglobin A1c, as well as further outlining self-management strategies.

Burden of Disease of COVID-19: Strengthening the Collaboration for National Studies.

Objectives: Quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality is a key enabler to assessing the impact of COVID-19 across countries and within countries relative to other diseases, regions, or demographics. Differences in methods, data sources, and definitions of mortality due to COVID-19 may hamper comparisons. We describe efforts to support countries in estimating the national-level burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years. Methods: The European Burden of Disease Network developed a consensus methodology, as well as a range of capacity-building activities to support burden of COVID-19 studies. These activities have supported 11 national studies so far, with study periods between January 2020 and December 2021. Results: National studies dealt with various data gaps and different assumptions were made to face knowledge gaps. Still, they delivered broadly comparable results that allow for interpretation of consistencies, as well as differences in the quantified direct health impact of the pandemic. Discussion: Harmonized efforts and methodologies have allowed for comparable estimates and communication of results. Future studies should evaluate the impact of interventions, and unravel the indirect health impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021.

Importance: While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID. Objective: To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery. Design: We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study. Results: Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8-312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38-7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9-92.4), 60.4% (18.9-89.1), and 35.4% (9.4-75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84-4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10-9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3-21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms. Conclusions and relevance: The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane. Key Points: Question: What are the extent and nature of the most common long COVID symptoms by country in 2020 and 2021?Findings: Globally, 144.7 million people experienced one or more of three symptom clusters (fatigue; cognitive problems; and ongoing respiratory problems) of long COVID three months after infection, in 2020 and 2021. Most cases arose from milder infections. At 12 months after infection, 15.1% of these cases had not yet recovered.Meaning: The substantial number of people with long COVID are in need of rehabilitative care and support to transition back into the workplace or education when symptoms start to wane.

Food Choice Motives and COVID-19 in Belgium.

To investigate the main motives driving dietary intake changes potentially introduced by preventive measures to address the pandemic, an online survey, using a 36-item Food Choice Questionnaire applied for the period before (the year 2019) and during (2020-2021) the pandemic, was distributed between July and October 2021 among adult residents from Belgium. A total of 427 eligible respondents, the majority Dutch-speaking, were included for analyses. The importance of nine motives for food choices, including health, mood, convenience, sensory appeal, natural content, price, weight control, familiarity and ethical concerns, was assessed by scoring from 1 to 5, and comparing mean scores from the during period with the before period. Sensory appeal was the most important food choice motive before (mean score of 4.02 ± 0.51) and during (3.98 ± 0.48) the pandemic. Convenience and health also ranked among the main motives, with health observed to become more important during the pandemic (3.69 ± 0.60 during vs. 3.64 ± 0.59 before). Additionally, mean scores of mood (3.41 ± 0.71 vs. 3.32 ± 0.58), natural content (3.35 ± 0.84 vs. 3.26 ± 0.85) and weight control (3.33 ± 0.79 vs. 3.25 ± 0.76) were significantly higher during as compared to before. The extent of change in the level of importance for natural content was smaller with increasing age, and for health larger for urban areas, but for other motives there were no significant differences across population subgroups. Changes in the level of importance were observed in both directions, while a moderate share of respondents declared no change, suggesting some persistence of food choice motives. Further activities within public health monitoring should be considered to fully understand the COVID-19 implications on food choice motives together with people's food behaviors and consumption.