A scoping literature review of global dengue age-stratified seroprevalence data: estimating dengue force of infection in endemic countries.

BACKGROUND: Dengue poses a significant burden worldwide, and a more comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneity in the intensity of dengue transmission within endemic countries is necessary to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions. METHODS: This scoping literature review aimed to update a previous study of dengue transmission intensity by collating global age-stratified dengue seroprevalence data published in the Medline, Embase and Web of Science databases from 2014 to 2023. These data were then utilised to calibrate catalytic models and estimate the force of infection (FOI), which is the yearly per-capita risk of infection for a typical susceptible individual. FINDINGS: We found a total of 66 new publications containing 219 age-stratified seroprevalence datasets across 30 endemic countries. Together with the previously available average FOI estimates, there are now more than 250 dengue average FOI estimates obtained from seroprevalence studies from across the world. INTERPRETATION: The results show large heterogeneities in average dengue FOI both across and within countries. These new estimates can be used to inform ongoing modelling efforts to improve our understanding of the drivers of the heterogeneity in dengue transmission globally, which in turn can help inform the optimal implementation of public health interventions. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Community Jameel, Drugs for Neglected Disease initiative (DNDi) funded by the French Development Agency, Médecins Sans Frontières International; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and UK aid.

A simulation-based method to inform serosurvey design for estimating the force of infection using existing blood samples.

The extent to which dengue virus has been circulating globally and especially in Africa is largely unknown. Testing available blood samples from previous cross-sectional serological surveys offers a convenient strategy to investigate past dengue infections, as such serosurveys provide the ideal data to reconstruct the age-dependent immunity profile of the population and to estimate the average per-capita annual risk of infection: the force of infection (FOI), which is a fundamental measure of transmission intensity. In this study, we present a novel methodological approach to inform the size and age distribution of blood samples to test when samples are acquired from previous surveys. The method was used to inform SERODEN, a dengue seroprevalence survey which is currently being conducted in Ghana among other countries utilizing samples previously collected for a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey. The method described in this paper can be employed to determine sample sizes and testing strategies for different diseases and transmission settings.

Correction: A systematic review and an individual patient data meta-analysis of ivermectin use in children weighing less than fifteen kilograms: Is it time to reconsider the current contraindication?

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009144.].

The burden of skin disease and eye disease due to onchocerciasis in countries formerly under the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control mandate for 1990, 2020, and 2030.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis ("river blindness") can cause severe morbidity, including vision loss and various skin manifestations, and is targeted for elimination using ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). We calculated the number of people with Onchocerca volvulus infection and onchocercal skin and eye disease as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 through to 2030 in areas formerly covered by the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control. METHODS: Per MDA implementation unit, we collated data on the pre-control distribution of microfilariae (mf) prevalence and the history of control. Next, we predicted trends in infection and morbidity over time using the ONCHOSIM simulation model. DALY estimates were calculated using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: In 1990, prior to MDA implementation, the total population at risk was 79.8 million with 26.0 million (32.5%) mf-positive individuals, of whom 17.5 million (21.9%) had some form of onchocercal skin or eye disease (2.5 million DALYs lost). By 2030, the total population was predicted to increase to 236.1 million, while the number of mf-positive cases (about 6.8 million, 2.9%), people with skin or eye morbidity (4.2 million, 1.8%), and DALYs lost (0.7 million) were predicted to decline. CONCLUSIONS: MDA has had a remarkable impact on the onchocerciasis burden in countries previously under the APOC mandate. In the few countries where we predict continued transmission between now and 2030, intensified MDA could be combined with local vector control efforts, or the introduction of new drugs for mopping up residual cases of infection and morbidity.

How does onchocerciasis-related skin and eye disease in Africa depend on cumulative exposure to infection and mass treatment?

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis (river-blindness) in Africa is targeted for elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. Onchocerciasis may cause various types of skin and eye disease. Predicting the impact of MDA on onchocercal morbidity is useful for future policy development. Here, we introduce a new disease module within the established ONCHOSIM model to predict trends over time in prevalence of onchocercal morbidity. METHODS: We developed novel generic model concepts for development of symptoms due to cumulative exposure to dead microfilariae, accommodating both reversible (acute) and irreversible (chronic) symptoms. The model was calibrated to reproduce pre-control age patterns and associations between prevalences of infection, eye disease, and various types of skin disease as observed in a large set of population-based studies. We then used the new disease module to predict the impact of MDA on morbidity prevalence over a 30-year time frame for various scenarios. RESULTS: ONCHOSIM reproduced observed age-patterns in disease and community-level associations between infection and disease reasonably well. For highly endemic settings with 30 years of annual MDA at 60% coverage, the model predicted a 70% to 89% reduction in prevalence of chronic morbidity. This relative decline was similar with higher MDA coverage and only somewhat higher for settings with lower pre-control endemicity. The decline in prevalence was lowest for mild depigmentation and visual impairment. The prevalence of acute clinical manifestations (severe itch, reactive skin disease) declined by 95% to 100% after 30 years of annual MDA, regardless of pre-control endemicity. CONCLUSION: We present generic model concepts for predicting trends in acute and chronic symptoms due to history of exposure to parasitic worm infections, and apply this to onchocerciasis. Our predictions suggest that onchocercal morbidity, in particular chronic manifestations, will remain a public health concern in many epidemiological settings in Africa, even after 30 years of MDA.

Supporting Drug Development for Neglected Tropical Diseases Using Mathematical Modeling.

Drug-based interventions are at the heart of global efforts to reach elimination as a public health problem (trachoma, soil-transmitted helminthiases, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis) or elimination of transmission (onchocerciasis) for 5 of the most prevalent neglected tropical diseases tackled via the World Health Organization preventive chemotherapy strategy. While for some of these diseases there is optimism that currently available drugs will be sufficient to achieve the proposed elimination goals, for others-particularly onchocerciasis-there is a growing consensus that novel therapeutic options will be needed. Since in this area no high return of investment is possible, minimizing wasted money and resources is essential. Here, we use illustrative results to show how mathematical modeling can guide the drug development pathway, yielding resource-saving and efficiency payoffs, from the refinement of target product profiles and intended context of use to the design of clinical trials.

Safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics of emodepside, a potential novel treatment for onchocerciasis (river blindness), in healthy male subjects.

AIMS: Emodepside is an anthelmintic, originally developed for veterinary use. We investigated in healthy subjects the safety, and pharmacokinetics of a liquid service formulation (LSF) and immediate release (IR) tablet of emodepside in 2 randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, Phase I studies. METHODS: Seventy-nine subjects in 10 cohorts in the single ascending dose study and 24 subjects in 3 ascending-dose cohorts in the multiple ascending dose study were enrolled. Emodepside as LSF was administered orally as single 1-40-mg doses and for 10 days as 5 or 10 mg once daily and 10-mg twice daily doses, respectively. Pharmacokinetics and safety were assessed up to 21 and 30 days, respectively. In addition, IR tablets containing 5 or 20 mg emodepside were tested in the single ascending dose study. RESULTS: Emodepside as LSF was rapidly absorbed under fasting conditions, with dose-proportional increase in plasma concentrations at doses from 1 to 40 mg. Terminal half-life was > 500 hours. In the fed state, emodepside was absorbed more slowly but overall plasma exposure was not significantly affected. Compared to the LSF, the rate and extent of absorption was significantly lower with the tablets. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, emodepside had acceptable safety and tolerability profiles, no major safety concerns, after single oral administration of 20 mg as LSF and after multiple oral administration over 10 days at 5 and 10 mg OD and at 10 mg twice daily. For further clinical trials, the development of a tablet formulation overcoming the limitations observed in the present study with the IR tablet formulation is considered.

A systematic review and an individual patient data meta-analysis of ivermectin use in children weighing less than fifteen kilograms: Is it time to reconsider the current contraindication?

BACKGROUND: Oral ivermectin is a safe broad spectrum anthelminthic used for treating several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Currently, ivermectin use is contraindicated in children weighing less than 15 kg, restricting access to this drug for the treatment of NTDs. Here we provide an updated systematic review of the literature and we conducted an individual-level patient data (IPD) meta-analysis describing the safety of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A systematic review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) for IPD guidelines by searching MEDLINE via PubMed, Web of Science, Ovid Embase, LILACS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, TOXLINE for all clinical trials, case series, case reports, and database entries for reports on the use of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg that were published between 1 January 1980 to 25 October 2019. The protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42017056515. A total of 3,730 publications were identified, 97 were selected for potential inclusion, but only 17 sources describing 15 studies met the minimum criteria which consisted of known weights of children less than 15 kg linked to possible adverse events, and provided comprehensive IPD. A total of 1,088 children weighing less than 15 kg were administered oral ivermectin for one of the following indications: scabies, mass drug administration for scabies control, crusted scabies, cutaneous larva migrans, myiasis, pthiriasis, strongyloidiasis, trichuriasis, and parasitic disease of unknown origin. Overall a total of 1.4% (15/1,088) of children experienced 18 adverse events all of which were mild and self-limiting. No serious adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Existing limited data suggest that oral ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kilograms is safe. Data from well-designed clinical trials are needed to provide further assurance.

Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators.

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) targeted for elimination by mass (antifilarial) drug administration. These drugs are predominantly active against the microfilarial progeny of adult worms. New drugs or combinations are needed to improve patient therapy and to enhance the effectiveness of interventions in persistent hotspots of transmission. Several therapies and regimens are currently in (pre-)clinical testing. Clinical trial simulators (CTSs) project patient outcomes to inform the design of clinical trials but have not been widely applied to NTDs, where their resource-saving payoffs could be highly beneficial. We demonstrate the utility of CTSs using our individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO-IBM) that projects trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug. We identify key design decisions that influence the power of clinical trials, including participant eligibility criteria and post-treatment follow-up times for measuring infection indicators. We discuss how CTSs help to inform target product profiles.

Projected Number of People With Onchocerciasis-Loiasis Coinfection in Africa, 1995 to 2025.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) is hampered by coendemicity of Loa loa, as people with high L. loa microfilariae (mf) density can develop serious adverse events (SAEs) after ivermectin treatment. We assessed the geographical overlap of onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence and estimated the number of coinfected individuals at risk of post-ivermectin SAEs in West and Central Africa from 1995 to 2025. METHODS: Focusing on regions with suspected loiasis transmission in 14 countries, we overlaid precontrol maps of loiasis and onchocerciasis prevalence to calculate precontrol prevalence of coinfection by 5 km2 × 5 km2 pixel, distinguishing different categories of L. loa mf intensity. Using statistical and mathematical models, we predicted prevalence of both infections and coinfection for 2015 and 2025, accounting for the impact of MDA with ivermectin. RESULTS: The number of people infected with onchocerciasis was predicted to decline from almost 19 million in 1995 to 4 million in 2025. Of these, 137 000 people were estimated to also have L. loa hypermicrofilaremia (≥20 000 L. loa mf/mL) in 1995, declining to 31 000 in 2025. In 2025, 92.8% of coinfected cases with loiasis hypermicrofilaremia are predicted to live in hypoendemic areas currently not targeted for MDA. CONCLUSIONS: Loiasis coinfection is a major concern for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa. We predict that under current strategies, at least 31 000 coinfected people still require treatment for onchocerciasis in 2025 while being at risk of SAEs, justifying continued efforts in research and development for safer drugs and control strategies.

Report of the first international workshop on onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy.

BACKGROUND: Recently, several epidemiological studies performed in Onchocerca volvulus-endemic regions have suggested that onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) may constitute an important but neglected public health problem in many countries where onchocerciasis is still endemic. MAIN TEXT: On October 12-14th 2017, the first international workshop on onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) was held in Antwerp, Belgium. The workshop was attended by 79 participants from 20 different countries. Recent research findings strongly suggest that O. volvulus is an important contributor to epilepsy, particularly in meso- and hyperendemic areas for onchocerciasis. Infection with O. volvulus is associated with a spectrum of epileptic seizures, mainly generalised tonic-clonic seizures but also atonic neck seizures (nodding), and stunted growth. OAE is characterised by an onset of seizures between the ages of 3-18 years. Multidisciplinary working groups discussed topics such as how to 1) strengthen the evidence for an association between onchocerciasis and epilepsy, 2) determine the burden of disease caused by OAE, 3) prevent OAE, 4) improve the treatment/care for persons with OAE and affected families, 5) identify the pathophysiological mechanism of OAE, and 6) deal with misconceptions, stigma, discrimination and gender violence associated with OAE. An OAE Alliance was created to increase awareness about OAE and its public health importance, stimulate research and disseminate research findings, and create partnerships between OAE researchers, communities, advocacy groups, ministries of health, non-governmental organisations, the pharmaceutical industry and funding organizations. CONCLUSIONS: Although the exact pathophysiological mechanism underlying OAE remains unknown, there is increasing evidence that by controlling and eliminating onchocerciasis, OAE will also disappear. Therefore, OAE constitutes an additional argument for strengthening onchocerciasis elimination efforts. Given the high numbers of people with epilepsy in O. volvulus-endemic regions, more advocacy is urgently needed to provide anti-epileptic treatment to improve the quality of life of these individuals and their families.

The drug and vaccine landscape for neglected diseases (2000-11): a systematic assessment.

BACKGROUND: In 1975-99, only 1·1% of new therapeutic products had been developed for neglected diseases. Since then, several public and private initiatives have attempted to mitigate this imbalance. We analysed the research and development pipeline of drugs and vaccines for neglected diseases from 2000 to 2011. METHODS: We searched databases of drug regulatory authorities, WHO, and clinical trial registries for entries made between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2011. We defined neglected diseases as malaria, tuberculosis, diarrhoeal diseases, neglected tropical diseases (NTDs; WHO definition), and other diseases of poverty according to common definitions. FINDINGS: Of the 850 new therapeutic products registered in 2000-11, 37 (4%) were indicated for neglected diseases, comprising 25 products with a new indication or formulation and eight vaccines or biological products. Only four new chemical entities were approved for neglected diseases (three for malaria, one for diarrhoeal disease), accounting for 1% of the 336 new chemical entities approved during the study period. Of 148,445 clinical trials registered in Dec 31, 2011, only 2016 (1%) were for neglected diseases. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show a persistent insufficiency in drug and vaccine development for neglected diseases. Nevertheless, these and other data show a slight improvement during the past 12 years in new therapeutics development and registration. However, for many neglected diseases, new therapeutic products urgently need to be developed and delivered to improve control and potentially achieve elimination. FUNDING: None.