Developing a length of stay prediction model for newborns, achieving better accuracy with greater usability.

BACKGROUND: One in ten newborn children is born prematurely. The elongated length of stay (LOS) of these children in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) has important implications on hospital occupancy figures, healthcare and management costs, as well as the psychology of parents. In order to allow accurate planning and resource allocation, this study aims to create a generalizable and robust model to predict the NICU LOS of preterm newborns. METHODS: Data were collected from a large tertiary center NICU between 2011 and 2018 and relates to 5,362 newborns. The selected model was externally validated using a data set of 8,768 newborns from another tertiary center NICU. This report compares several models, such as Random Forest (RF), quantile RF, and other feature selection methods, including LASSO and AIC step-forward selection. In addition, a novel step-forward selection based on False Discovery Rate (FDR) for quantile regression is presented and evaluated. RESULTS: A high-orderquantile regression model for predicting preterm newborns' LOS that uses only four features available at birth had more attractive properties than other richer ones. The model achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 6.26 days on the internal validation set (average LOS 27.04) and an MAE of 6.04 days on the external validation set (average LOS 29.32). The suggested model surpassed the accuracy obtained by models in the literature. It is shown empirically that the FDR-based selection has better properties than the AIC-based step-forward selection approach. CONCLUSION: This paper demonstrates a process to create a predictive model for NICU LOS in preterm newborns, where each step is reasoned. We obtain a simple and robust model for NICU LOS prediction, which achieves far better results than the current model used for financing NICUs. Utilizing this model, we have created an easy-to-use online web application to ease parents' worries and to assist NICU management: https://tzviel.shinyapps.io/calcuLOS.

[NECROTIZING ENTEROCOLITIS - AN ONGOING CHALLENGE].

INTRODUCTION: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a major cause for morbidity and mortality among neonates, especially among low birth weight premature infants. Even though NEC has been highly investigated during the last few decades, understanding of the pathogenesis is still relatively poor. Throughout the years protective measures, as well as risk factors, were identified, but there is still no clear prevention strategy, and the percentage of neonates suffering of NEC was not changed. Moreover, the treatment approach is controversial in many circumstances other than a few clear surgical indications. The decision between conservative and surgical treatment in many situations is in the hands of the medical staff. Herein we present the story of a premature infant who suffered from feeding intolerance since birth, with major clinical deterioration after receiving packed red blood cells (PRBCs) transfusion. She was diagnosed with NEC and was treated conservatively, with clinical improvement and worsening alternately, until a colonic stricture was identified and treated surgically. We will provide a short review on risk factors, preventive measures, as well as the research regarding PRBCS transfusion and NEC development.

"Golden Hour" quality improvement intervention and short-term outcome among preterm infants.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of a quality improvement intervention during the first hour of life ("Golden Hour") on short-term preterm neonatal outcome. STUDY DESIGN: A comprehensive protocol designed for initial stabilization and treatment of preterm infants that included cord blood sampling, use of a dedicated resuscitation room and improved team communication using Crew Resource Management tools. The infants admitted before and after implementation of the protocol were retrospectively compared in a matched case-control design. RESULTS: There were 194 infants in the intervention group and 194 controls. Admission temperatures improved significantly from a mean of 35.26 °C to 36.26 °C (P < 0.001), and late-onset sepsis and bronchopulmonary dysplasia rates lowered significantly (P = 0.035 and P = 0.028, respectively) in the intervention group. There was trend towards reduction in early blood transfusion and ventilation duration. CONCLUSIONS: A "Golden Hour" quality improvement intervention was of significant benefit for preterm neonates. Further follow-up to assess long-term effects is warranted.

CYP1A1 and CYP2D6 gene polymorphisms in Israeli Jewish women with cervical cancer.

HYPOTHESIS: To assess the frequency distribution of the CYP1A1 and CYP2D6 gene polymorphisms in Israeli Jewish women with cervical cancer. METHODS: Forty-three Israeli Jewish women with cervical cancer and 123 healthy Israeli Jewish women were assessed. CYP1A1 (2 alleles) and CYP2D6 polymorphism was analyzed using an allele-specific, polymerase chain reaction-based method. RESULTS: The allele frequency and genotype distribution for the CYP1A1 (2 alleles) and CYP2D6 polymorphism did not reach a level of significance. Smoking was the only independent risk factor for cervical cancer (P = 0.0003). CONCLUSION: CYP1A1 and CYP2D6 mutations are not related to an increased risk for cervical cancer in the Jewish Israeli population.